Standing down..

David Cameron hasn't yet secured his second term as Prime Minister, but has ruled out standing for a third term in office because a "fresh pair of eyes and fresh leadership would be good". Opening up to the BBC in his kitchen (a risky place for party leaders to do interviews, as Ed Miliband will tell you), Cameron pointed to three "tremendous" people who could take over, George Osborne, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson. We have more details here.  "Terms are like Shredded Wheat - two are wonderful but three might just be too many," the Prime Minister quipped (he may have meant to say Weetabix). His candour has served to throw a petrol bomb on the leadership talk fires, with Cameron's pledge on nearly all the front pages this morning. "Cameron fires start gun on Tory leadership race", the Times says, "Cameron sets leadership deadline" says the FT, while the Daily Mirror clearly doesn't want him to have another serving of Shredded Wheat, sniffing: "Arrogant Cameron: I won't do 3rd term (in your dreams, mate)".  The Tory leader likely wanted to acknowledge his political mortality and avoid echoes of Margaret Thatcher's infamous pledge to "go on and on". However, he could easily have dodged the question about his future, as it now sets off relentless speculation about when he will finally step down, and who is ready in the wings to take over. Tony Blair suffered this exact problem after promising before the 2005 election not to serve a "full third term", as his authority drained away to his presumptive heir Gordon Brown. Blair's former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell, asked Michael Gove the key question on Newsnight last night: "How does it help you win a second term by having this discussion now?" Tory campaigners will find it frustrating to have succession talk drowning out subjects like David Cameron's economic record. Everything his colleagues do now will be seen through the leadership prism. Boris Johnson has had to laugh off his father placing a £20 bet on him taking over from Cameron, and will have to squirm like he never has before on LBC radio this morning to avoid starting an early leadership campaign. Theresa May has been talking tough on law and order, while George Osborne has kept up his stark warnings about there still being "a lot more work to do" to fix the economy. The Prime Minister's pledge could easily backfire. He failed to win a majority for his first term back in 2010, so it may seem rather hasty to talk of third terms. In an election campaign, everything is judged by one test: does it make it more or less likely that you win? It's very hard to see how Cameron's pre-resignation helps the Tories to victory.

I'LL DO ANYTHING (BUT I WON'T DO VAT) The Labour party will lay down a significant general election marker today, with a pledge that VAT will not rise if it is elected to power on 7 May. Shadow chancellor Ed Balls will announce the new manifesto commitment during a speech in Birmingham, City A.M reports. UKIP ON THE ATKINSON DIET MEP Janice Atkinson has been expelled by Ukip after her chief of staff was filmed apparently asking for an inflated invoice to claim on European expenses. A disciplinary panel made the decision to kick out Atkinson - she had been due to contest a Commons seat for it on May 7 - along with her assistant Christine Hewitt, a party spokesman said. Here are more details.  LIFE IS TOFF FOR LABOUR A Labour MP has said Ed Miliband is seen by voters as 'being more of a toff than David Cameron' and accused him of costing his party votes on the doorstep, Steven Swinford reports. Simon Danczuk, the MP for Rochdale, said that Labour MPs who claim that Mr Miliband is popular on the doorstep are "telling lies". MY BUDGET WILL BE BALLS' Ed Miliband has claimed that Alex Salmond would not be allowed to write a minority Labour government's first budget "in a million years", Auslan Cramb reports. He used a speech in Scotland to accuse the former Scottish National Party leader of "bluff and bluster". ROYAL ROW French cabinet minister Ségolène Royal has accused George Osborne of being "spiteful" in his comments about the French economy, and warned "what goes around comes around". She told Newsnight that his swipe at the "French approach" in the Budget was "condescending" and added: "When a country like the UK is facing difficulty, we don't make fun. In your country your budget deficit is much greater than it is in France, we don't have take pleasure from it." Politics Home has more details.  ONE BILLION POUNDS The Democratic Unionist Party has named its price for keeping a Tory or Labour government in power. Ian Paisley, son of the party's founder, told The Independent he would be open to a deal with either main party in return for "hundreds of millions" extra for the province. FARR-OFF THE MARK Tim Farron, the Lib Dem's foreign affairs spokesman, has been rebuked by Vince Cable for giving the party leadership 2/10 for its work in coalition. The twinkle toes Business Secretary told BuzzFeed's Emily Ashton that Farron's credibility "isn't great" and suspected that "he would not be seen as a very credible leader". Cable's wife also reveals he is now an "international supreme" dancer.  DEFECTING BY ACCIDENT  The UK Independence Party policy chief who is writing the party's general election manifesto has admitted she agrees with David Cameron's position on Europe, Chris Hope has revealed. Suzanne Evans, the party's deputy chairman and a former Tory councillor, said she would campaign to keep Britain within a reformed European Union if there was an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. FRIENDLY FIRE FROM PAXO Jeremy Paxman has accused broadcasters of acting in a "pathetic high-handed" fashion over the proposed TV leaders' debates – even though he would have been an integral part of one of them. Paxman branded the negotiations over the pre-election debates a "complete shambles", the Guardian's John Plunkett has more.  AND ON THAT (BLOND) BOMBSHELL... Boris Johnson has suggested that he could replace Jeremy Clarkson as a presenter on Top Gear if the BBC no longer needs his services. The London Mayor told yours truly on Twitter that "if a vacancy, wd def let my name go forward", which sounds like the sort of thing he may soon be saying about the Tory leadership. Of course he was joking, says Iain Martin, wasn't he?

POLL POSITION

Average of polls as of Sunday, March 22: Lab: 33.84%, Conservative: 33.16%, UKIP 14.73%, Lib Dem 7.91%, Green 4.73%. The data is from: YouGov, Populus, Opinium, ComRes, Survation, Ipsos MORI, ICM, TNS-BMRB.

TOO MANY TWEETS… @MayorofLondon: am mega clarkson fan but if a vacancy wd def let my name go forward. #askboris @asabenn COMMENT From The Telegraph Philip Johnston - We don't like coalitions – but we may have to get used to them Tim Stanley - Why is Nigel Farage considered fair game? From elsewhere Rachel Sylvester - Prepare for the great leadership bloodbath Alex Massie - In a brave move, David Cameron sets fire to his authority AGENDA 0900 Boris Johnson on LBC for 'Ask Boris'  0930 UK monthly inflation figures from ONS. Last month's figures showed a CPI inflation rate of 0.3 per cent in the year to January 1030: Campaigners launch the 'MyMP' campaign for "real democracy"  1030 Ed Balls speaks in Birmingham on Labour's economic policy and unveils a new manifesto commitment  1415 George Osborne to give evidence to the Treasury Committee on the Budget 1445 Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude speaks at a Reform event in London on the future of public service delivery 1545 Energy Secretary Ed Davey and shadow energy secretary Caroline Flint speak at a Policy Exchange event on the UK energy market  1830 Birkbeck University debate on "Policies or personality?Can the internet change our voting habits?" TODAY IN PARLIAMENT HOUSE OF COMMONS 11.30: Oral questions - Deputy Prime Minister, including Topical Questions; Attorney General Ten Minute Rule Motion - Schools (Opportunity to Study for Qualifications)  Motion - Business of the House motion Legislation -Recall of MPs Bill - Consideration of Lords amendments Legislation - Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill - Consideration of Lords amendments  Motion - Debate to approve a motion relating to Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993 Motion - Motion to approve Statutory Instruments relating to counter-terrorism Adjournment debate - Lesser taught languages WESTMINSTER HALL 9.30-1100:  Commonwealth Day - Sir Alan Haselhurst 11-11.30 Future of Kettering General Hospital - Mr Philip Hollobone 1430 - 1600 Reform of the Vaccine Damage Payment Act 1979 - Mr Russell Brown 1600- 1630  Update on the Shrewsbury 24 - Mr David Anderson 1630 - 1700 Property taxes in London - Mark Field 1630: A debate on an e-petition relating to proposed increase in fees for nurses and midwives. HOUSE OF LORDS 1430: Questions. Public awareness on the effect on living standards of the UK's debt servicing costs - Lord Vinson Planning of the proposed new London concert hall - Lord Campbell-Savours Detecting and shadowing non-NATO naval units in UK waters - Lord Trefgarne Action being taken to tackle air quality in London - Lord Dubs Debate - 3rd Report from the Select Committee (Amendments to the Code of Conduct and the Guide to the Code; Redaction of written evidence to defunct select committees) (HL Paper 143) - Lord Sewel Debate - Report of the European Union Committee on The EU and Russia: before and beyond the crisis in Ukraine - Lord Tugendhat Short debate -Impact of oil palm plantations on world-wide climate and existence of indigenous animals - Lord Eden of Winton Short debate - Social and economic value of sports volunteering in the United Kingdom - Lord Allen of Kensington

The next big scandal happens again..

David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have been drawn into the cash for access debate as it now emerges that all three have met an undercover businessman posing as a potential donor, in a twist we have splashed on today: "Fake donor pays way to heart of big parties".  Paul Wilmott met the political A-list after letting on that he was considering large donations to each of the three main parties. However, the undercover businessman was working for Channel 4's Dispatches programme, with it expected to include undercover footage of meetings with Cameron, Clegg and Labour frontbencher Chris Leslie. He reportedly met the Prime Minister at a fund-raising ball, and a senior cabinet minister at an exclusive Tory donor club event, in scenes that will be broadcast tonight.  The parties have already got their defences out, insisting no-one has done anything wrong, but the Dispatches investigation will leave some red faces in Westminster. The show will shed light on the "sausage factory" aspect to fundraising, the public won't like seeing how parties court potential donors behind the scenes, but it is how things are done.  The latest revelations may sound familiar as they come days after our investigations team caught out Clegg's former chief fundraiser Ibrahim Taguri and Lib Dem peer Lord Strasburger. Both stories provoked resignations, investigations, and fervent denials of wrongdoing. The Prime Minister used to be rather outspoken on the issue, saying in 2010 that the "far-too-cosy relationship between politics, government, business and money" was something that "has tainted our politics for too long". He even spoke about shining "the light of transparency" on lobbying so that politics "comes clean about who is buying power and influence". In his view, it was the "next big scandal waiting to happen".  Now in government ,what has Cameron done to clean up party funding? Not much. Cross-party talks aimed at cleaning up party funding collapsed in 2013, and won't be resumed until after the election. With the Prime Minister in danger of being tarnished by the "next big scandal", will this be a wake up call?

ACT OF DISUNION Alex Salmond has claimed he will help write Ed Balls' first Budget after the general election by threatening to sabotage it unless it includes billions of pounds of extra spending, Simon Johnson reports, in his most explicit statement yet on how he would intend to turn the screw on a minority Labour government. Our view is that the main three parties should band together to endorse tactical voting against SNP candidates. "To avert a crisis that will once again threaten the Union, a new and bold approach is needed to stop Mr Salmond in his tracks," the Telegraph says.  TORY TROUBLES UP NORTH  A Tory election candidate, Afzal Amin, has reportedly been suspended for allegedly plotting to win votes by taking credit for stopping an EDL protest. This comes after defence minister Anna Soubry said Amin should "go now" if the claims were true. Here are more details.  CLOWNS TO THE LEFT... Nigel Farage and his family have been chased out of a pub in Kent and had their car attacked by protesters demonstrating against the UK Independence Party (Ukip), Ben Riley-Smith reports. The Ukip leader labelled the demonstrators "scum" on Sunday afternoon and said his two children had yet to return after the family got split amid the hostility. ...JOKERS TO THE FAR-RIGHT... Britain First, the far-right political party responsible for vigilante "invasions" of mosques and a campaign against the "Islamification" of Britain, has told its supporters to help deliver "major Ukip gains" at the general election, the Independent's James Cusick has found. Farage has previously tried to distance himself from support and associations offered from the extreme right. Britain First has said it "understands" how Ukip must play the "political game", and told its supporters to "ignore Ukip's necessary political bluster". ...HERE I AM, STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH U-KIP Farage has argued that "controlling human nature is not the easiest thing to do" as he was tackled about recent scandals in his party on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show. "When things go wrong, I deal with them," he insisted. The Ukip leader also insisted he had been "utterly ruthless" with people who "stepped over the line". IF EU GO, THERE WILL BE TROUBLE Britain will be forced to have even more open borders if it leaves the European Union or face losing up to £55billion a year by 2030 - a sum that could trigger a recession, a comprehensive analysis has found. In a boost for David Cameron's case for reforming the EU, the Open Europe think tank has found that Britain could lose 2.2 per cent of its GDP in the event that it closes its borders following a "hostile" exit from the EU. Next chief executive Lord Wolfson has written for the Telegraph, arguing that "Eurosceptics and Europhiles should unite behind the Prime Minister's endeavours to get the bold reforms Europe so badly needs".  GAME OVER Theresa May will today tell radical Islamists that the "game is up" and that they were no longer tolerated in Britain as she sets out Tory plans for a crackdown on extremism, Steven Swinford reports. The Home Secretary is expected to say that a future Conservative government target Sharia law, change the rules on granting citizenship to ensure people embrace British values and introduce "banning orders" for extremist groups. BOJO SAYS NO-ALITION David Cameron should rule out a coalition with any party after the election so that people "know what they are voting for" Boris Johnson has said. In interviews with the Daily Mailand the Times, the Mayor of London says the Tory attitude should be: "Stuff coalition with anyone". He added: "If we go into this issuing faint pheremonal offerings or mating signals to this or that party it would be absolutely fatal".  YES HE KHAN...WITH HELP? Labour is facing accusations of a "stitch-up" over union support for Sadiq Khan's potential run to be the party's candidate for Mayor of London over his alleged access to union members' contact details. A Labour source told the Sun: "The whole thing is a textbook union stitch-up to rig the selection for Sadiq." ED VS BUSINESS PT94 Labour plans for a 10pc cut in electricity prices are being opposed by the CBI as it launches a 100-day "action plan" for the next government to reduce the risk of a so-called power vacuum, Roland Gribben reports. The employers' organisation is concerned that the power price promise made by Ed Miliband signals more interventionist policies if Labour wins the general election. TIME AFTER TIME Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants caught entering Britain are being released as soon as they are handed back to the French authorities, a cross-party group of MPs has said. The "bizarre" situation allows migrants to try "again and again" to enter the UK illegally knowing there is little punishment if caught, the Commons Home Affairs committee concluded. Here are more details.

POLL POSITION

Average of polls as of Saturday, March 21: Lab: 34.02%, Conservative: 33.16%, UKIP 14.9%, Lib Dem 7.9%, Green 4.73%. The data is from: YouGov, Populus, Opinium, ComRes, Survation, Ipsos MORI, ICM, TNS-BMRB.

TOO MANY TWEETS… @DPJHodges: Very rarely agree with Nigel Farage. But when he calls people who harassed him and his family "scum" he's correct. COMMENT From The Telegraph Boris Johnson - The Left says life was better in the Seventies – what utter tosh Michael Fallon - We will make sure our armed forces have the resources they need From elsewhere Nick Butler - Cleaning up the lobbying business Matthew d'Ancona - The SNP's tartan tail wagging the red Labour dog: don't rule it out AGENDA 1100: Ukip leader Nigel Farage is to give a speech on the economy in Heywood and Middleton - the Labour seat that Ukip came close to winning in a by-election last October 1430: Ask the Chancellors on Sky News: with George Osborne in a Q&A, and then Ed Balls at 1530. 1615: OBR Chairman Robert Chote and IFS Director Paul Johnson are to give evidence to the Treasury Committee on the Budget Ukip to hold a disciplinary hearing for Janice Atkinson, the MEP allegedly caught requesting a falsified restaurant receipt for £3,000 (against a bill of £950) to claim as EU expenses Alcohol duty changes made in the Budget come into effect. Alcohol duty rates on general beer, spirits, and lower strength cider to be reduced by 2 per cent; on high strength beer by 0.75 per cent; the rate on wine is frozen Ed Miliband to make a speech in Clydebank alongside Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy.  Shadow health minister Andy Burnham, Health Minister Dan Poulter and Care and Support Minister Norman Lamb attend a Royal College of Nursing hustings event in London 1830: Environment Secretary Liz Truss, Energy Minister Ed Davey, shadow energy secretary Caroline Flint and Caroline Lucas MP speak at the Green Alliance greener Britain hustings in London 1900: Education Secretary Nicky Morgan speaks at a Creative Industries Federation event in London on cultural education 2000: Channel 4's 'Dispatches' goes undercover to investigate 'how to buy a meeting with a minister' TODAY IN PARLIAMENT HOUSE OF COMMONS 1430: Home Office Questions. A statement on the European Council. A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Tobacco Manufacturers Producer Responsibility. Conclusion of the Budget Debate - Subject: Jobs, pensions and savings. A short debate on the Centenary of the 1915 Armenian Genocide. WESTMINSTER HALL 1630: A debate on an e-petition relating to proposed increase in fees for nurses and midwives. HOUSE OF LORDS 1430: Questions. House of Commons Commission Bill - 3rd reading. A motion relating to the draft Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015 (Risk of Being Drawn into Terrorism) (Amendment and Guidance) Regulations 2015. Motions relating to the draft Regulation of Investigatory Powers (Acquisition and Disclosure of Communications Data: Code of Practice) Order 2015; Draft Retention of Communications Data (Code of Practice) Order 2015. Motions relating to the draft Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015 (Authority to Carry Scheme) Regulations 2015; Draft Authority to Carry Scheme (Civil Penalties) Regulations 2015; Draft Passenger, Crew and Service Information (Civil Penalties) Regulations 2015; Draft Aviation Security Act 1982 (Civil Penalties) Regulations 2015; Draft Terrorism Act 2000 (Code of Practice for Examining Officers and Review Officers) Order 2015; Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015 (Code of Practice for Officers exercising functions under Schedule 1) Regulations 2015; Civil Procedure (Amendment) Rules 2015. A regret motion relating to the Gaming Machine (Circumstances of Use) (Amendment) Regulations 2015.

Beaker's Big Budget..

Danny Alexander stood on the steps of the Treasury yesterday and held a yellow box aloft for the cameras to mark the Lib Dems' "alternative Budget". Very few of Alexander's colleagues seemed to care about what their party would do after May if they governed alone, perhaps recognising how unlikely it was to happen, with fewer than 10 Lib Dem MPs turning up to listen, my colleague Rosa Prince reported.  John Bercow swiftly warned Alexander against making any party political statements at the despatch box and Nick Clegg slipped out of the chamber before he had even finished speaking. Our sketch writer Michael Deacon was in the gallery as Alexander took what could be his "last chance to realise a lifelong dream". The Lib Dem Treasury minister also had to borrow the yellow box from an activist, as the party had auctioned it off on Sunday for £1,500.  The coalition Budget was 124 pages long, but the Treasury document sketching out the Lib Dems' "alternative fiscal path" lasted only 14 pages, with four of them completely blank. What about the detail? "It's a totally empty document, which just sets out an intention to offer higher spending, with no insight at all into what that would look like," a former old hand at the Treasury told me. "I assume George told them just to do the minimum to keep Danny happy."  The Lib Dems may feel that a yellow box helps their alternative agenda get attention. But George Osborne already used the coalition Budget to unveil distinctly yellow policies like a boost to the tax-free personal allowance, eclipsing his Lib Dem deputy. Alexander, confusingly, insisted that he was happy with the coalition Budget, which he co-authored and would still vote for, but that his yellow Budget offered "a better way". Is it worth looking like a muppet, and being mercilessly mocked on social media, just to wave around a yellow box?  Labour dismissed the Lib Dem Budget as a "farce", but the Opposition has not been much better. Ed Balls admitted that he would not reverse any of Osborne's new Budget measures, except for the "deeper spending cuts". Isn't this when Labour is meant to set out a compelling alternative, some MPs may wonder, to show voters it is ready for government?

UKIP THE RECEIPT Nigel Farage has said he is "shocked" and "astonished" by the behaviour of a UK Independence Party MEP who allegedly plotted to make a bogus expense claim, Chris Hope reports. Janice Atkinson, MEP for South East and a candidate for the Folkestone and Hythe constituency, has been sacked by the party after a member of her staff was reportedly filmed discussing claiming back a restaurant bill.  YOU HAVEN'T SEEN THE LAST OF US Nick Clegg will attempt to dispel gloom around the Lib Dems' election prospects in Scotland by insisting they will hold all their seats and "wipe the smile off Alex Salmond's face". Speaking at a rally at the party's Scottish conference in Aberdeen, the Lib Dem leader will tell delegates "we will do so much better than anyone thinks", Simon Johnson reports. Lib Dem commentator Mark Pack has also given a spirited "case for the defence" of his party in an interview for the Polling Matters podcast.  SMOG MAY STOP PLAY The Lib Dems have been causing a stir in Gravesend filming a promotional video, with Nick Clegg rumoured to be making an appearance. "A dancing troupe and the Lib Dem party leader are expected to be filmed today, as long as the smog does not interfere," the News Shopper reports.  BACK TO BLACK Household incomes have recovered to pre-recession levels and are likely to be higher than they were when the Coalition came into power, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said. George Osborne's claim in his Budget speech that households will be £900 better off on average than they were in 2010 has triggered a political row, with Labour insisting people are worse off. Steven Swinford has more.  NO REVERSE GEAR Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, admitted that Labour would not reverse George Osborne's Budget measures, including the flagship measures on savings and Help to Buy. Speaking in response to yesterday's Budget, he said "nothing had changed" because the Chancellor had produced a "quite empty" Budget, meaning Labour "wouldn't need to reverse any of it" if the party was successful at the general election. Here are more details. FAREWELL TWO BRAINS David Willetts is the latest retiring MP in Rosa Prince's running series of interviews. He opens up about winning Margaret Thatcher's trust, his first ministerial career in John Major's government, and his return to government under David Cameron. "You were not seduced by the adrenaline rush of that day's news story, he says about his time in the coalition. "When you come back in your 50s it's easier to see things in proportion." EU CAN'T BE SERIOUS Jean-Claude Juncker has privately accused David Cameron of confecting a row over business red tape in order to improve his electoral prospects at home, Matthew Holehouse reports from Brussels. The President of the European Commission is understood to have told colleagues that the Prime Minister's call to ease the tax regime for internet start-ups was simply a ploy to boost his credentials among voters wavering with Ukip. BRASSED OFF NO MORE Brass bands will be included in new tax relief for orchestras, the Treasury has confirmed after initial proposals to exclude them were attacked for "cultural snobbery". The government had initially suggested that only ensembles with musicians from string, woodwind, brass and percussion sections could get the financial support. Here are more details.  TORY TAX PLANS The Conservatives will pledge to take nearly a million people out of the 40p higher rate of tax in the months following the general election, George Osborne has indicated. The Chancellor said that his Liberal Democrat colleagues had blocked him from raising the higher rate tax threshold in his pre-election Budget on Wednesday. Peter Dominiczak has more.  BUDGET BANTER George Osborne delivered a series of one-liners aimed at Ed Miliband and the Labour front bench in his Budget speech on Wednesday. But how much did all the funny announcements cost? There were swipes at Miliband's tax affairs, the row over his two kitchens, his leadership battle against his brother David, and the possibility of a deal with the SNP. Ben-Riley Smith got his calculator out.  PUTIN CASH TO USE Britain will spend £20 million this year to help former communist states come in from the cold and resist the Putin regime. David Cameron last night announced plans to send British officials to help reform the creaking bureaucracies of Georgia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzogovina, and Serbia. Here are more details.  WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE... Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair's former spin chief, has a new book out on 'winners' in politics. Will he include Ed Miliband in a future edition? "It's too early to tell", he admits to HuffPostUK.

POLL POSITION

Average of polls as of Wednesday, March 18: Lab: 34.21%, Conservative: 32.98%, UKIP 14.73%, Lib Dem 7.75%, Green 5.12%. The data is from: YouGov, Populus, Opinium, ComRes, Survation, Ipsos MORI, ICM, TNS-BMRB.

TOO MANY TWEETS… @MarkJLittlewood: Why do @LibDems always seem to think that a good photo op shld be the sort of thing that wld look at home on Tiswas?  COMMENT From The Telegraph Allister Heath - There is no such thing as a giveaway: it's taxpayers' money, not the state's Fraser Nelson - Will George's boring Budget allow the Tories to light the Blue touchpaper? From elsewhere Philip Collins -  Osborne: a Tory carrying out Labour policies Gaby Hinsliff - Britain's obsession with ownership has turned housing into a pyramid scheme AGENDA 0930 Public Sector Finance statistics, including the latest figures for government borrowing a debt, to be released by ONS 0930 Weekly A&E attendance data for England to be published 2000 'Any Questions' on Radio 4. On the panel: Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Chris Leslie, Lib Dem MP Tessa Munt and IEA chief Mark Littlewood Ed Miliband to give a speech at the Federation of Small Businesses National Conference Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander to address the Scottish Lib Dem conference  A report on the 'HS3' rail link between Leeds and Manchester, including details of costs and route options, to be published by the Department for Transport A partial solar eclipse will be visible from the UK, though cloud is forecast across the country for when it is due to occur. The time of the maximum partial eclipse will be around 9:30am in London, when almost seven eighths of the sun will be obscured. Vernal equinox – the first day of spring. TODAY IN PARLIAMENT HOUSE OF COMMONS 9.30 Continuation of the Budget debate.  2nd reading of Peter Bone's bills: Free Movement of Persons into the United Kingdom (Derogation) Bill, British Bill of Rights and Withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights Bill, Department of Energy and Climate Change (Abolition) Bill - 2nd reading, Hospital Car Parking Charges (Abolition) Bill, BBC Privatisation Bill, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (Abolition) Bill, and Business of the House Commission Bill. 2nd reading of Christopher Chope's bills: Working Time Directive (Limitation) Bill, Bat Habitats Regulation Bill, Defence Expenditure (NATO Target) Bill, Convicted Prisoners Voting Bill, Benefit Entitlement (Restriction) Bill, Illegal Immigrants (Criminal Sanctions) Bill, House of Lords (Maximum Membership) Bill, EU Membership (Audit of Costs and Benefits) Bill. Fixed-Term Parliaments (Repeal) Bill - 2nd reading  Road Fuel Pricing (Equalisation) Bill - 2nd reading  Wild Animals in Circuses Bill - 2nd reading Adjournment debate: Inward investment in Southend

Labour's foxes incinerated..

George Osborne went on a fiscal fox hunt yesterday, tally ho! In his sights were three Labour's arguments: the Chancellor is cutting spending back to 1930s levels, failing to deal with Britain's debt, and has overseen a plunge in Britons' living standards. "By the time he sat down, the Westminster hunting ground was littered with the corpses of shot Labour foxes", our view is.  This all required financial jiggery-pokery, so Osborne eased up on his planned cuts to put an end to the "worst cuts in 80 years" style headlines that the Office for Budget Responsibility provoked in its assessment last December of his plans. To achieve this, Osborne cut back on how much of a budget surplus he wanted to leave Britain, with his target falling from £23 billion to £5 billion. He also decided to end his austerity programme a year earlier than planned, with it now set to last until 2019/2020. The OBR still foresees a "rollercoaster" programme after May, with cuts four times as big pencilled in for two years and then a big spending splurge, which would leave spending at its lowest level since 1964. Around 800,000 more public sector workers are estimated to lose their jobs, so it won't be a fun ride for some. Basically, it's a return to the "swingeing sixties".  Helped by £20bn of asset sales, Osborne was able to tell MPs that he would now meet his original target to have debt falling as a percentage of GDP this year. He gave a forensic argument for why living standards have improved in the last five years, but other figures suggest that household income has some way to go before it returns to pre-crisis levels. If they aren't sure they feel better off, Osborne made sure to announce policies that would leave them trousering more cash, like a £200 increase in their tax-free personal allowance.  Osborne didn't have a big announcement, as the Times' Tim Montgomerie noted in tearing into the "dull, simplistic" Budget. Rather than eliminating the deficit in five years as originally planned, Osborne has managed to halve it. Despite mocking his predecessor Alistair Darling's plan to do just that as "not credible", Osborne has sold his record as an unalloyed triumph. "It was brilliant stuff," writes my colleague Allister Heath, "a case study in triangulation and putting electioneering ahead of any other consideration." We have rounded up the key announcements here.  There's now cause for dismay in Labour's ranks. Miliband gave a decent response in the Commons yesterday, warning of  "colossal", "massive" and "extreme" cuts, but Ed Balls has been struggling to articulate in broadcast interviews this morning what the party would do differently. Just what is Labour's message now? The Lib Dems will get their chance to shine today, as Osborne's Treasury deputy Danny Alexander prepares to present an unpredecented second Budget, setting out what his party would do differently after the election, bringing his yellow "budget box" into the Commons. The coalition may still be alive, but both sides has already broken up. The campaign is truly in full swing.

REMEMBER THE BIG SOCIETY Iain Duncan Smith has written for the Telegraph about the government's "social impact bonds", through which investors can put up cash to fund schemes like cutting homelessness or reoffending, and then get a dividend from the state if it works. "The potential for this nascent market is huge, he writes. "Just think what that money could mean on the ground: how many lives it could transform." NOT SO SLICK  The extraordinary extent to which the SNP inflated North Sea oil revenues during the independence referendum has been disclosed by official figures predicting they will be more than 90 per cent lower than the Nationalists claimed, Simon Johnson reports. The impartial Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) dramatically revised down its predictions for how much oil and gas will generate for the rest of the decade, projecting the sector will only generate £600 million in 2016/17. SNEAKY SEAGULLS Osborne has snuck out in his Budget the news, noticed by the Times' Laura Pitel, that £250,000 will be spent on research to help tackle the problems "very aggressive gulls" are causing throughout the UK, terrorising people, causing mess, noise and damage to property.  BLOND AMBITION Boris Johnson's father has bet £20 on his son becoming the next prime minister. Stanley Johnson, 74, said his son is the "best man for the job" and predicted he would beat other rivals to become the next Tory leader. "Next Prime Minster After Cameron. Boris Johnson. 5/1," read the betting slip seen by The Sun. VATS NOT OKAY David Cameron is to take up the cause of hundreds of online "micro-businesses" threatened by changes in EU tax rules, Matthew Holehouse reports. The Prime Minister is planning to raise new VAT regulations for automated digital services at the EU summit beginning today in Brussels amid fears some small traders could be forced out of business altogether. BEHIND THE MASK As the General Election looms, Labour's deputy leader Harriet Harman has opened up about the party, women's rights and her guilty pleasure, sitting on her sofa with her kittens on her lap. How intelligent does she think she is? She reveals all to Matthew Stadlen.  MALE PALE... AND STALE? The Liberal Democrats are too "male and pale", the party's leader, Nick Clegg, has admitted, adding that larger parties could put female candidates in seats as "consolation prizes", the Guardian reports. "If we want to represent modern Britain, we have to have modern Britain represented in us, he told BBC Radio Four's Woman's Hour.

POLL POSITION

Average of polls as of Tuesday, March 17: Lab: 34.52%, Conservative: 33.14%, UKIP 14.43%, Lib Dem 7.6%, Green 4.82%. The data is from: YouGov, Populus, Opinium, ComRes, Survation, Ipsos MORI, ICM, TNS-BMRB.

TOO MANY TWEETS… @HelenLewis: Osborne methodically shooting Labour's foxes: living standards, debt targets, 1930s spending. Doubt Ed M has a fox defibrillator to hand. COMMENT From The Telegraph Jeremy Warner - Will the US spoil George Osborne's Budget party? Dan Hodges - George Osborne got the economics right. That's what has killed Labour From elsewhere Simon Jenkins - Cameron may be PM – but it's Osborne who really runs this government Tim Montgomerie - We need more than this dull, simplistic budget AGENDA Ed Balls to respond to yesterday's Budget statement in the House of Commons Lib Dems to announce alternative fiscal plans – their 'ambition for the future' EU Council heads of state summit meeting. Leaders are expected to discuss building an energy union and relations with Russia 2100: Nigel Farage and Tony Blair are interviewed in Trevor Phillips' documentary 'Things We Won't Say About Race That Are True' on Channel 4 TODAY IN PARLIAMENT HOUSE OF COMMONS 9.30 Oral questions: Energy and Climate Change, including Topical Questions  Business Statement from Leader of the House Continuation of the Budget debate Adjournment Debate on Shooter's Hill mobile phone mast at Stoke-on-Trent - Robert Flello WESTMINSTER HALL 13.30 - 16.30 Future of local newspapers debate HOUSE OF LORDS Questions.  A debate on the select Committee report on the Inquiries Act 2005.  A debate on the EU Committee Report on the impact of the European Public Prosecutor's Office.  A debate on the report of the Science and Technology Committee on International Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics students.  Legislation: Health Service Commissioner for England (Complaint Handling) Bill - Committee stage - Committee of the Whole House

The Osborne legacy..

George Osborne is preparing to give his sixth Budget today, capping off five years as Chancellor. Depending on the election result, it could be his last. And so, Osborne is making sure to come to the Commons with lots of goodies to make MPs, and hopefully voters, cheer, like "the death of the annual tax return", which we have splashed on today. Saving millions of people from "the tax return panic" (as the Mail calls it) with new digital tax accounts is already proving popular. After five years of stern talk about dealing with "Labour's mess", Osborne is trying to put a positive case for why he should be able to finish his "long term economic plan", helped by the economy bouncing back and the fact that he has money to play with by easing up on spending cuts. "Good times to roll with £10bn extra for budget", the Times leads on, while the Independent reports that Osborne will scrap the tax on savings income in a "budget for votes".  How much could Osborne actually do just two months before the general election? If you want a sense of what to expect, we have rounded up all the best Budget leaks and predictions here. His Conservative predecessor, Nigel Lawson, has some ideas for him in today's Telegraph. The former Chancellor wants Osborne to cut 1p off the basic rate of income tax, paying for it by raising petrol tax by 5p a litre, and replace the winter fuel allowance with an increase in the state pension. The Lib Dems have already kicked up a fuss about proposals to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million, leaking it to the Guardian in order to show how the Tories are "on the side of the rich". With the plans going nowhere in coalition, it looks like the Conservatives will save them for their manifesto. But, as my colleague Allister Heath says, Osborne will still need a rabbit or two to pull out from under his hat to excite voters. He is expected to raise the level at which people start paying income tax to £11,000, equating to a £200 tax cut for workers. He may also allow pensioners to sell their annuities for cash after being urged by ministers to avert an "unfair" generational divide. But will that be enough? Restrained by coalition, the Chancellor will have to keep his boldest proposals, like a tougher benefit cap, on the shelf. "This low tax, small state Tory message has been blunted by five years of partnership with the Lib Dems," our view is. "It needs to be reaffirmed in the coming election campaign, starting today." Even if Osborne delivers a bland Budget today, Tory MPs will be relieved that he avoided a reprise of the 2012 "omnishambles" statement, which was shredded for cutting the top rate of income tax to 45 per cent while increasing tax on pasties and caravans, generating weeks of bad headlines and blowing a hole in the party's "all in it together" message on austerity. "That Budget sank the Tories in the polls and gave Labour a lead it would take the best part of three years to erode," Ben Riley-Smith notes in his profile of the Chancellor.  Osborne's aim today is clear: to drum home that the economic recovery, as delayed as it may have been, is finally coming through under his watch. But he will inevitably couch that message with ominous warnings about how dangerous the world is out there and that the "job is not done", as he will know the risk of voters feeling too positive is that they may not worry about backing someone else, like Labour or UKIP.  When Osborne steps up to the despatch box this afternoon, he holds the Tories' election hopes in his hands. We have just a few hours to find out if his sixth Budget will make or break his party's campaign.

THE TRUTH ISN'T OUT THERE... Labour's election chief has suggested that Facebook is partly responsible for the party's "bad" position in Scotland as such sites have become an "echo chamber" for conspiracy theories. Douglas Alexander, Labour's election campaign manager, admitted that his party has a "fight on its hands" in Scotland because of the "grief and anger" of nationalists. Here are more details.  DON'T CALL IT A MASS DEBATE David Cameron has reached an agreement with broadcasters to take part in a single seven-way TV debate on 2 April with all party leaders to be broadcast by ITV in the run up to the General Election, instead of a head to head with Ed Miliband. He previously demanded it should be held a week earlier in his "final offer" to broadcasters. Here are more details. ED'S MYSTERY MONEY MAN Who is Martin Taylor? He has given Labour £591,800, making him the party's third largest backer outside the trade unions this parliament, and seems to have met Ed Miliband at least once. However, Labour aren't keen, or able, to say who he is. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism has been looking into it.  OUT OF A PICKLE One of the Conservatives' most senior politicians has revealed how he reprimanded himself for being "narrow-minded" and "prejudiced" for opposing gay marriage. Eric Pickles, the Communities Secretary, has described on live radio how he made a "180-degree" turn on the topic after realising his previous criticism of the change was "mean", Ben Riley-Smith reports.  LABOUR: KEEP CLARKS-OFF TV Jeremy Clarkson should not be allowed to return to the BBC because of his "pattern of obnoxious, racist behaviour", the shadow transport secretary has said. Michael Dugher said that the idea of Clarkson working for a public service broadcaster is "for the Stone Age", adding that describing him as an "idiot" is a "compliment". Steven Swinford has more.  EVERYONE'S A LITTLE BIT RACIST UKIP MEP David Coburn was branded a "racist clown" by the Scottish Nationalists' Pete Wishart in a fiery debate after he compared a Muslim SNP minister to convicted terrorist Abu Hamza. Coburn insisted he would not take the criticism from a party that was "xenophobic against the English". HuffPostUK's Ned Simons was in the audience. DAVE WON'T BE A KNOCK-OFF NIGEL David Cameron has said the prospect of holding a referendum on British membership of the European Union this year in order to secure the support of the UK Independence Party is "pretty slim", Rosa Prince reports. But the Prime Minister did not rule out altogether the possibility of a poll in 2015, after Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, said one would be the price of his party propping up the Tories in a coalition government after the general election in May. TRAVELIN' BAND The Conservatives are to unveil tough measures to deal with illegal gypsy encampments, including setting up special magistrates courts that can order evictions on weekends and during the night, Justice Secretary Chris Grayling has indicated. Grayling told MPs that the issue of travellers occupying land "requires attention as soon as we get a Conservative government re-elected". Peter Dominiczak has more.  GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE Jack Monroe, an anti-poverty campaigner who appeared in an official Labour Party broadcast, has defected to the Green Party in protest at Labour's stance on immigration and welfare, Emily Gosden reports. Monroe, who writes the food blog 'A Girl Called Jack', posted an image of her Green Party welcome letter online on Tuesday.

POLL POSITION

Average of polls as of Monday, March 16: Lab: 34.36%, Conservative: 32.98%, UKIP 14.6%, Lib Dem 7.6%, Green 5.26%. The data is from: YouGov, Populus, Opinium, ComRes, Survation, Ipsos MORI, ICM, TNS-BMRB.

TOO MANY TWEETS… @EdConwaySky: G Osborne's Budgets have less substance than any other recent Chancellor. Statistical proof  https://medium.com/sky-news/substance-vs-spin-how-the-chancellors-compare-b900c1d19158 COMMENT From The Telegraph Nigel Lawson - When George Osborne stands up to deliver his Budget, this is what he should say Dan Hodges - George Osborne's Back to the Future Budget From elsewhere Michael Barber - UK government needs clear goals and a tight grip on spending Rafael Behr - If businesses trashed each other the way politicians do, they'd have no customers left AGENDA 0930 UK monthly unemployment figures from ONS 1200: PMQs 1230: The Budget The OBR's latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook report to be released US interest rate decision Bank of England MPC meeting minutes to be published 'Game of Thrones' series 5 world premier at the Tower of London TODAY IN PARLIAMENT HOUSE OF COMMONS 11:30 Oral questions - International Development, including Topical Questions 12:00 Prime Minister's Question Time Budget Statement - George Osborne Adjournment debate led by Damian Collins on Fishing discards and quotas WESTMINSTER HALL 9:30 - 11:00: Debate on support for women entrepreneurs led by Seema Malhotra 11:00- 11:30 Debate on the AEA Technology pension scheme led by Geoffrey Clifton-Brown 1430 - 1600 Debate on proposals for a new equal pay act led by Emily Thornberry 1600 - 1630 Debate on government response to collapse of MG Rover, led by Richard Burden 1630 - 1700 Debate on government support for economy of Torbay led by Adrian Sanders HOUSE OF LORDS 1500 Oral questions  Control of Horses Bill - 3rd reading Local Government (Review of Decisions) Bill - 3rd reading Divorce (Financial Provision) Bill [HL] - 3rd reading Local Government (Religious etc. Observances) Bill - Report stage Health and Social Care (Safety and Quality) Bill - Report stage House of Commons Commission Bill - Committee stage - Committee of the Whole House Orders and regulations - Legal Services Act 2007 (Warrant) (Approved Regulator) Regulations 2015; Legal Services Act 2007 (Warrant) (Licensing Authority) Regulations 2015; Special Immigration Appeals Commission (Procedure) (Amendment) Rules 2015; Criminal Procedure and Investigations Act 1996 (Code of Practice) Order 2015 Debate on the Report of the Select Committee on Affordable childcare Debate on the Protection of interpreters and translators working in conflict zones around the world Supply and Appropriation (Anticipation and Adjustments) Bill - all stages.