The loser now will be later to win..

 Is it all over in Rochester & Strood? A new ComRes pollhas Ukip 13 points clear of the Conservatives, who will announce the winner of their postal primary today. The numbers are: Ukip 43% Conservatives 30% Labour 21% Greens 3% Liberal Democrats 3%. The usual health warnings apply about one-off polls: but it comes off the back of the increasing bullishness from Ukip about their chances of adding a second MP to their ranks in as many months. Remember, too, that ComRes's detailed poll of Scottish Borders called the referendum result correctly for that region. 
Below the headline figures are more causes for Conservative misery. Voters are divided 4 in 10 Tory voters from 2010 are now supporting Ukip. Ukip voters divide 65% to 30% against the proposition that a vote for Ukip might mean Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister. Just 30% of Ukip voters by the PM's referendum pledge against 68% who don't believe it. But it's not all good news for Labour, who have lost 30% of their 2010 vote to Ukip against 39% from the Conservatives. (57% of the Ukip vote comes from non-voters; James Kirkup crunches the numbers around those who stayed at home in 2010 here)
But forget the old parties, what about that Nigel Farage, eh? He must be feeling pretty chipper, eh? Not so fast. ComRes polling confirms that it's not just Rochester where Ukip is usurping the Tories - the People's Army are now seen as the nastiest party by a plurality (32%) of voters.  A slew of poll results suggest that support for a British exit from the European Union is waning, with IpsosMori showing support for the EU at its highest level since 1991. YouGov's EU referendum tracker continues to show a small average lead for the status quo - it's 40% - 39% this month. 
That Ukip might do more harm than good to the prospects of the Out campaign has been a long-time fear among its supporters - here's Dan Hannan from July of this year - and those worries now look to be justified. If, as looks increasingly likely, Ukip continue to flourish, their most significant impact may be a movement of British popular opinion towards Europe and Ed Miliband in Downing Street. 

SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLE (1)
The NHS needs an £8bn funding boost, major reforms and a "radical upgrade" in unhealthy lifestyles to survive into the 21st Century, NHS supremo Simon Stevens has said. Among the plans: a breakdown of the separation between hospitals and general practitioners, with consultants and mental health professionals playing a more active role earlier on in treatment.  "NHS needs £8bn extra, says chief (some of it to lose weight"is our take. "Price of saving the NHS: £8bn extra by 2020" is the Guardian's splash. "NHS: the £8bn black hole" warns the Times' frontpage. It's Mr Stevens' calls for the NHS to pay obese people if they lose weight that has caught the Mirror's eye, though: "NHS Will Pay Fat People To Lose Weight" is their headline.
WORKING MOTHERS
"Osborne gets mothers back to work" is our splash. Hundreds of thousands of stay-at-home mothers will be encouraged to get back to work under government plans to reform childcare and give Britain one of the highest rates of female employment in the world. The number of women in paid work has increased by more than 771,000 since 2010 to a record 14.4 million. Laura Perrins, a former barrister and now part of the Mothers at Home Matter campaign group, isn't pleased: "Only a bean counter would make it government policy." "No woman should have to choose between their career and their family," Nicky Morgan says.  
SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLE (2)The three main political parties are not being honest with voters about the costs of austerity, the IPPR, a left-leaning think-tank, warns. Labour has detailed only "a very small proportion" of the cuts needed to eliminate the deficit by 2020 - the freeze in child benefit is worth a mere £100m according to the IPPR -  while their additional tax plans have largely been allocated to additional spending. The Conservatives' conference announcements leaves that party with "a bigger job to do on deficit reduction than they had at the beginning of the conference season", the IPPR says. The full details are here. 
PM'S PLANS, JUNCKED
Jean-Claude Juncker says he is "not willing to compromise" on the issue of free movement in a direct threat to the PM's pledge to make control of migration a red line in his renegotiation with the European Union, Bruno Waterfield and Peter Dominczak report. M Juncker said: "I am not prepared to change. If we are destroying the freedom of movement other freedoms will fall. I am not willing to compromise." Meanwhile, the UK accepts three times the amount of non-EU migrants than any other member state, Duncan Robinson and Gavin Jackson say in the FT. 
BUDGET BATTLESThe PM will demand "downward pressure" on the EU's budget today at a meeting of the European Council, after the European Parliament voted to ask for an additional 6.4 billion euros for the 2015 budget, the Times reports. "The EU appears impervious to reform of any sort," our leader growls, adding, "in such circumstances, it is hardly surprising that anti-EU parties...are making such headway."
SMITH TALKS
The Smith Commission, the all-party group tasked with agreeing the shape of Scotland's increased powers, has met for the first time in discussions that Lord Smith, the commission's head, described as "constructive". There will be a media black-out on the progress of the talks, with only the full agreement, if one is forthcoming, announced towards the end of November. James Cusick has the the details in the Indy. 
BAD WOOLF
"Oops! Silly Me!" is the Mail's splash. A photograph that appears to show Fiona Woolf with Lady Brittan at an awards ceremony in October 2013 will increase the pressure on Ms Woolf, who had told MPs that she had had no social contact with the Brittans since April 2013. Meanwhile, a legal challenge is being mounted by abuse victims to her appointment as head of the inquiry into historic child sexual abuse, the Guardian reports.
SQUIFFY RETURNS
The great-grandson of  HH Asquith, the first Prime Minister to reform the House of Lords will sit as a Liberal Democrat peer following a by-election after the death of one of the remaining 92 hereditary peers. The Earl of Oxford and Asquith succeeds Lord Methuen, who died in July. Jamie Ross handily explains the contest over at BuzzFeed.
CALYPSO COOLER
Controversial earworm "the Ukip calypso" has been withdrawn from sale at the request of Mike Read, the composer and performer, who apologised for "unintentionally causing offence" with his fake Jamaican accent and references to "illegal immigrants in every town". But Ukip's attempts to find an alternate home for the revenue have led them into a confrontation with the Red Cross, who have said they will not take the money as the song is party political, Georgia Graham reports. "As a neutral organisation, we cannot benefit from something which overtly supports one political party," a spokesperson said, "In addition, the Red Cross has a proud history of helping refugees and asylum seekers who are negatively referred to in the lyrics."
PHILIP DAVIES FEELING FOR SNOW
Philip Davies has described a confrontation between him and veteran broadcaster Jon Snow behind-the-scenes at Channel 4 News. "You're past your best," the MP for Shipley said. "At least I had a best," Mr Snow replied. Anita Singh has the story.
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his workhere.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. 
POLL OF POLLS


Poll of polls 15th to 23rd October (ComRes-Populus-YouGov)
Conservatives 32% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 17% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 31%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 17%, Greens 6%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@mattwithers: If there ain't no party like an S Club Party, it's difficult for broadcasters to justify their continued non-inclusion in the TV debates.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Rob Ford - The Tories can't woo Ukip voters and ethnic minorities at the same time
Andrew Haldenby - Money alone won't buy us better treatment; the NHS needs more reform
Peter Oborne - Brave as lions but poorly led: the British heroes of HelmandFrom elsewhere 

David Aaronovitch - Labour is pandering to prejudice (Times)
George Eaton - To win, the Tories need to make the economy the defining issue  (Statesman)
Jane Merrick - If I got dementia, I'd expect my GP to identify it without being paid extra
AGENDA0900: Call Clegg on LBC 97.3.
0930 LONDON: Theresa May speech at Policing and Mental Health Summit.
1000 LONDON: MPs take part in the Westminster Dog of the Year competition.
1010 LONDON: David Laws speech.
1115 LONDON: Philip Hammond gives evidence to parliamentary Intelligence and Security Committee.
1315 MANCHESTER: Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin speech.
1430 LONDON: Report on Gurkha pensions launched by all-party group of MPs.
1440 BIRMINGHAM: Jeremy Hunt speech

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
COMMONS
Transport Questions.
House of Commons Commons and Leader of the House Questions.
A statement on the future business of the House.
Backbench business debates: i) Repeal of Fixed-term Parliament Act 2011 ii) Oral hormone pregnancy tests.
A short debate on cyberbulling and digital anonymity.
WESTMINSTER HALL
1330: Debate on the Science and Technology Committee report: Communicating climate science.
LORDS
Introductions of Baroness Chisholm of Owlpen and Lord Scriven.
Questions.
A debate on the contribution of the construction industry to the UK economy.
A debate on improved alternatives for young people not attending university.
A debate on economic and social development in Malawi. 

Ill fares the land..

The Mail's investigation into the Welsh NHS enters its third day - "Condemned To Die By Waiting List Shambles" is today's splash. Nearly 1,400 patients are waiting at least a year for an operation annually, compared to just 574 in England, which is 17 times larger than Wales.
"Tory bully-boy attacks", Welsh Health Secretary Mark Drakeford tells the Guardian. Labour strategists on both sides of the border think they're the victim of an organised campaign to blunt their advantage on healthcare. It's a bid to distract from the unpopular Health and Social Care Bill, they say. On the other side, the Conservatives feel that the chaos in Wales is the best argument yet for Lansleycare; Wales is "what you get if you do not reform" as one Conservative put it to me last night.
Who's right? Elsewhere, the Government is under fire for plans to pay family doctors £55 for every patient they diagnose with dementia. It's an "ethical travesty", Iona Heath, former president of the Royal College of GPs says - Laura Donnelly has the story. 
It does seem to be drawn from the same bag of politically popular but intellectually bankrupt ideas as Labour's "a cancer test within seven days"pledge. (The objections are remarkably similar: what test? Starting from what admission date? And what about the perverse incentives thrown up for doctors by the scheme? Etc, etc.) 
Is the trouble in England too much reform and the problem in Wales too little? As neat as that seems it's probably unlikely. Wales is one of the biggest losers from the Barnett formula - government funding breaks down to £9.8k per head compared  to £10.1k for Scotland, although that country is far richer - coupled with additional demographic pressures, it's no wonder that their health service is buckling under pressure. Ditto, for all the political heat that Mr Lansley's reforms generated, the greatest problem in England is that the above-inflation spending increases increases that kept the NHS going under New Labour aren't financially possible these days. 
Meanwhile our politicians compete to find new ways to remind us that they love the NHS. Absent a grown-up conversation about our ageing population and our anaemic public finances, love may not be enough. 

THE COMPANY YOU KEEP
Ukip "do a lot of stuff that is absolutely vile", Chuka Umunna told LBClast night. But enough about the Ukip calypso, what about their new allies in the European Parliament, eh?  The Board of Deputies of British Jews says they are "deeply concerned" that Nigel Farage's party has aligned itself with Robert Iwaskiewicz of the KNP. "I have found nothing at all in this guy's background to suggest he is a political extremist at all," says Mr Farage. Try page 2 of today's Sun, Nige: "If Hitler had survived it would have been difficult to pin the Holocaust on him" is one winning line. TAX CUTS, CUT?
"Osborne's tax cuts pledge in doubt as borrowing rises" is the FT's headline. Despite the recovery, tax receipts continue to be disappointingly low, jeopardising both the timeline to get Britain back in the black and the revenue  for the promised £7.2 billion tax cut thereafter. Robert Colvile explains what's going wrong and why it's so worrying for the Chancellor. 
QUIET BAT PEOPLEThe first pages of the Liberal Democrat manifesto have been caught on camera after the party's strategy supremo, Ryan Coetzee, was photographed carrying a copy as he left a meeting. The pledges include - a further increase in the personal allowance, waiting time targets for mental health, the deficit eradicated by 2018 and a qualified teacher in every classroom. "This just isn't good enough," Caron Lindsay, co-editor of LibDemVoice, writes on her blog. More "planet-saving, establishment-busting" stuff is required, she says. 
WHO'S AFRAID OF THE BIG BAD WOOLF?
"A sheep in Woolf's clothing?" quips the Indy this morning. Fiona Woolf, the new head of the official inquiry into historic child sexual abuse, is under facing calls for her resignation after it emerged that she had attended dinner parties with Lord Brittan, the Tory grandee at the centre of the scandal. Speaking to the Commons Select Committee, Ms Woolf insisted she was "not a member of the establishment", before insisting that her dinners with Lord Brittan were networking, not social affairs. "I was building my City network," she explained. Simon Danzcuk's not convinced: "In the world I come from, if you have people round for dinner you consider yourselves friends."
THE STREATHAM QUESTION
The PM's move to exclude Scottish MPs from voting went "against the spirit" of the campaign to save the Union, Chuka Umunna told his monthly radio show on LBC. The Shadow Business Secretary argues that prohibiting Scottish MPs from talking about devolved issues in Westminster is the same as preventing London MPs from discussing issues such as transport, which are devolved to the Mayor of London. iSPY
Sir Iain Lobban, the outgoing head of GCHQ, has warned that the Internet has become a refuge for the "worst aspects of human nature" in his farewell speech, Steven Swinford reports.  The "Utopian dream" that the Internet remain a "totally ungoverned space" is flawed and that presenting it as a "sort of binary option - security or privacy - is to represent a false choice."
BUSINESS VS EVERYONE
David Cameron is more concerned with Ukip than doing right by the economy, while Ed Miliband has "zero interest" in helping businesses, according to 23 of Britain's most successful businessmen. The comments come in a report by YouGov CEO Stephan Shakespeare, Sam Coatesreports in the Times.
RUB OF THE GREEN
Sir Andrew Green of MigrationWatch will join the House of Lords as a crossbencher. Credit to Sir Andrew for turning the conversation his way,says James Kirkup, now, how about a peerage for someone willing to make the positive case for immigration?
FABRICANT'S WARNING
An Out vote would be defeated in the In/Out referendum as things stand, Out supporter Michael Fabricant has warned in an article for the Guardian. The In campaign would be led by a "consensual, passionate businessperson" while the Outers have "no leader who commands popular support". The campaign would be led by "angry looking grey men who have been arguing the toss on Europe for years," he says. FRANKIE'S CRANKY
Frank Field's having a pop at Ed Miliband again, the Indy reports. “A sizeable part of ex-Labour voters have been repelled by the policies promoted by a largely non-working class party elite with whom these ex-voters find it difficult to sympathise and vice-versa," Mr Field says.
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his workhere.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. 
POLL OF POLLS


Poll of polls 14th to 22nd October (ComRes-Populus-YouGov)
Conservatives 32% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 17% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 16%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@JeyyLowe: look when we in the industrial-media complex launched a conspiracy to get a Ukip MP we wanted more than nerdy debates on political reform
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

James Kirkup - Ukip has scared the Conservative Party into forgetting its own history
Mary Riddell - The politics of poison is turning Britain into the nasty country
From elsewhere 

Rafael Behr - This isn't about the Tory party. It's  a battle for the soul of British politics (Guardian)
Daniel Finkelstein - Chasing the grey vote could kill the Tories (Times)
AGENDA0930 LONDON: Education Secretary Nicky Morgan gives evidence to the Commons Education Committee on academies and free schools.
0950 LONDON: Nick Clegg speech on bureaucracy in schools.
1200: Prime Minister's Questions. 
1430 LONDON: The Chief Medical Officer, Dame Sally Davies, gives evidence to the Commons Health Committee on Ebola.
1500 LONDON: The Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee hearing on food demand, consumption and waste. Witnesses will include food critic Jay Rayner and representatives of Morrisons supermarkets and The Trussell Trust.


TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
COMMONS
Wales Questions.
Prime Minister's Questions.
A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Blood Donation (Equality).
Opposition Day Debates: i) National Crime Agency ii) Subject to be announced.
A short debate on the inquiry into historic child abuse allegations.
WESTMINSTER HALL
0930: Voter registration.
1100: Rights of leaseholders to insurance policy details.
1430: Recent events in Hong Kong and UK commitment to the Joint Declaration.
1600: Environmental challenges in Somerset.
1630: Development projects in Afghanistan.
LORDS
Introduction of Lord Fox.
Questions.
Criminal Justice and Courts Bill - Report stage (Day 2).
A short debate on reaching and implementing an agreement on dealing with the past in Northern Ireland. 

Let Cameron be Farage..

Jose Manuel Barroso's farewell tour is unlikely to have added many more names to his Christmas card list. "Despite being an unelected official, Mr Barroso feels no compunction in lecturing the UK and its leaders about what is best for the country," Phil Johnston thunders. All Mr Barroso's proved, spits Grant Shapps in City AM: "Europe’s bureaucrats are much too bossy, interfering and out of touch", while Conservative MPs aren't taking too kindly to being lectured by a man they see as a demob-happy Blair lackey. 

The outgoing President's interview with James Kirkup and Bruno Waterfield will do little to improve his standing. Margaret Thatcher would never have found herself in David Cameron's position, Mr Barroso says. "It would be impossible to hear a Ukip speech coming from Margaret Thatcher, completely impossible," he explains, before adding, helpfully: "She was for enlargement and for fighting protectionism. I don't remember her defending labour market protectionism...she would not be surrendering to these arguments."
In the FT, George Parker warns that the PM is "in danger of angering everyone while pleasing no one", while that paper warns in its leader that the "government is fast losing friends and influence in the most important political and economic club to which it belongs", a point that Rachel Sylvester makes in her column in today's Times. Privately, it's a point being made by pro-European Conservatives who are increasingly concerned that Britain is being gently inched towards the exit. Behind the scenes, some feel that these histrionics have proceeded each and every major victory for the PM.  That's true - but they also accompanied that chastening rebuff over Jean-Claude Juncker, and the stakes are getting higher. 

ESCAPE TO OSWESTRY
Patients are so desperate to escape the Welsh NHS that they are crossing the border in their thousands for treatment or going private, Sam Marsden and James Chapman reveal in the Mail. The number of cancer patients travelling to England for treatement has quadrupled from 3,471 to 15,450 last year. "To suggest the NHS in Wales is somehow in every way in a more difficult state than in England is quite simply wrong," Carwyn Jones, the First Minister, told reporters yesterday. But Kirsty Williams, the Liberal leader in Wales, describes the state of the devolved Health Service as "a national scandal".
MILI'S MINI-SHUFFLE
Ed Miliband conducted a minor reshuffle of his Opposition frontbench, following the resignation of Rushanara Ali over the vote on air strikes against Iraq, Yvonne Fovargue replacing Ms Ali as Shadow Minister for Young People, Ian Lucas moving from Foreign Affairs to Defence, and Gareth Thomas moving to fill his role, with former Blair aide Pat McFadden brought in as Shadow Europe Minister from the backbenches.
HE'D LIKE TO TEACH THE WORLD TO SING
Alan Milburn, the government's social mobility czar, has called for a national programme to improve parenting alongside a range of other measures to prevent Britain becoming a "permanently divided" society, James Lyons reports in the Mirror. "Effective parenting has a bigger influence on a child’s life than their wealth, their class or even their education," Mr Milburn said. "EVERY WHISTLE-BLOWER I HAVE KNOWN HAS ENDED UP ON THE DOLE"
"Sacking threat to prison whistleblowers" is the Guardian's splash. Conservative MP Gavin Williamson warns that attempts to silence prison workers with concerns risked a scandal in prisons on a par with the Mid-Staffs affair in the NHS. Mr Williamson was approached by prison officers at HMP Featherstone, a prison in his own constituency of South Staffordshire, who are concerned about rising levels of violence at the prison and inadequate protection for prison staff.
BALLS MOVES TO CALM LABOUR WORRIES
In order to calm jitters over Labour's proposals for a "mansion tax", Ed Balls laid out the details in yesterday's Evening Standard. The tax will cost around £250 a month for someone in a home worth between £2 and £3 million, and anyone on an income below £42,000 will be allowed to defer payment of the new tax until they die. Labour insiders insist that the number of people on anything close to that income affected by the tax is vanishingly small - it's as much about reassuring jittery Labour London MPs/Mayoral hopefuls as anything else.  On that score, Tessa Jowell welcomed the greater protections while David Lammy believes that a greater proportion of the tax's revenues should be earmarked for Londoners. FARAGE RIDES AGAIN
An MEP who Marine Le Pen, leader of the hard right French National Front, described as "contrary to our values" has come to the rescue of Nigel Farage's European parliamentary group, the Times reports. Robert Iwaskiewicz, of the Polish New Right party, caused controversy during the European elections when he said that Hitler was "not aware of the extermination of the Jews". "No doubt, pointing out UKIPs latest far-right alliance will be called a slur," Jamie Reed, a Labour frontbencher,tweeted, "Sadly, it's a fact."
RUM SHOW, CHAPS
Mark Carney has launched an investigation into the unexpected collapse of the Clearing House Automated Payment System (CHAPS), delaying hundreds of billions worth of deals, both to homebuyers and from businesses, who also use the system to make payments. James Titcomb has the details. 

EENY WEENY ITSY BITSY EUROSCEPTIC BIKINI
Mike Read, the former Radio 1 DJ and Ukip supporter, has released a song called "the Ukip Calypso", celebrating the rise of Nigel Farage's party and performed in a cod-Jamaican accent (you can listen to it, plus five of my favourite political ditties here). It's been endorsed by Nigel Farage, who has encouraged party members and supporters to propel the song to No.1. The bookies give it odds of 50/1. Matt Holehouse has the story - and the lyrics!
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his workhere.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. 
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
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POLL OF POLLS


Poll of polls 14th to 21st October (Opinium-Populus-ICM-IpsosMori-Survation-YouGov)
Conservatives 31% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 16% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
Populus: Conservatives 34% Labour 36% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 13%
YouGov: Conservatives 31%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@johnprescott: I never knew Mike Read had a criminal record. I do now #ukipcalypso
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Dan Hodges - Sooner or later, David Cameron is going to have to deal with Ukip
Philip Johnston - Britain has every right to challenge the EU's rules
From elsewhere 

Janan Ganesh - Miserablism risks causing Britain serious harm (FT)
Rachel Sylvester - Cameron is heading for a big fall on Europe (Times)
AGENDA0930 LONDON: Public sector borrowing figures for September are published by the Office for National Statistics. 
1030 LONDON: Culture Secretary Sajid Javid and the Chair of the BBC Trust, Rona Fairhead, give evidence to the Commons Culture, Media and Sport Committee. 1200 LONDON: Ceremonial welcome for Singapore state visit. 
1330 LONDON: Commons Standards Committee takes evidence on the standards system in the House of Commons. Witnesses include Laura Sandys MP, James Arbuthnot MP and Jack Straw MP.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
COMMONS
Health Questions.
A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Sex and Relationships Education (Curriculum).
Recall of MPs Bill - Second reading.
A short debate on the compensation package for HS2 Phase 1.
WESTMINSTER HALL
0930: Relationships and children's wellbeing.
1100: Infrastructure investment in Stroud Valleys and Vale.
1430: Help and Support for Separated Families initiative.
1600: Domestic energy efficiency.
1630: Performance and accountability of BT Openreach under the BDUK programme.
LORDS
1430: Introductions of Baroness Smith of Newnham and Lord Cooper of Windrush.
Questions.
Deregulation Bill - Committee of the whole House.
A short debate on the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina with regard to the recent election there. 

EU must be joking..

Jose Manuel Barroso will call this morning for Britain's political leaders to fight just as hard for Britain to say in the EU as they did to save the Union, and he'll throw in a small warning, too: "Just as nearly 70 years ago peace could not be built by one country alone, today even the largest, proudest European nation cannot hope to shape globalisation," Mr Barroso will say. 
It's intended to rouse the pro-Europeans into making some noise - "you need to start making the positive case well in advance, because if people read only negative and often false portrayals in their newspapers from Monday to Saturday you cannot expect them to nail the European flag on their front door on Sunday just because the political establishment tells them it is the right thing to do", Mr Barroso will argue. (He'll also pop into the Telegraph's offices afterwards - you can put your questions to him using the #askbarroso hashtag on Twitter if you're so inclined.) 
But as far as winning friends and influencing people, Mr Barroso's appearance on the Marr show - "like a puffed-up bullfrog" is Trevor Kavanagh's verdict in the Sun -  seems to have ruffled feathers rather than smoothed egos. His warning that the PM's proposed changes on immigration contravene European law - "Migrants cap would be illegal, warns Euro chief" is our take - is hardly the best lift to David Cameron's efforts to persuade Britain  that the deal they want is possible, let alone his parliamentary party. 
On that second front, Douglas Carswell's interview in today's G2 will be the cause of further discomfort, not least because it will reinforce the worst fears of many of his former colleagues. He explains why, despite his earlier statement that only a Conservative victory will guarantee an In-Out referendum, he chose to walk away: "It’s a smoke-and-mirrors referendum. His advisers told me the plan; it’s to work out from focus groups and pollsters what it would take to get the soft ‘outers’ and the undecideds to stay in, to offer them that, and once that hurdle is cleared to stick with the status quo.”
At the same time, Downing Street is all too aware of the truth behind Mr Barroso's warning that the United Kingdom risks alienating its natural allies in the battle for EU reform in order to keep his party sweet before the election. A delicate balancing act continues.
MILBURNED
"Coalition's 'lamentable' child poverty failure" is the Indy's splash. The Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission will issue its second annual report today, and Alan Milburn, the organisation's chief, has condemned all three parties for their approach to the problem in a column for the Times. It's "not good enough", Mr Milburn rages. In his sights: Ed Miliband's proposal to raise the minimum wage to £8 an hour will be a 23p cut on the expected rise, an equivalent to an hour less a week and a £397 reduction a year for someone working full-time on minimum wage. He's not sold on the threshold raise, either: "not the best use of scarce resources if the aim is to tackle working poverty" is the verdict.
NO GIVEAWAYS
Cabinet ministers have been warned by the Treasury that a shortfall of tax revenues and growing concern about the global economy mean that big pre-election giveaways are out of the question, George Parker and Chris Giles report in the FT.  Far from splashing the cash, further spending controls may well have to be introduced in the Autumn Statement, Danny Alexander told Cabinet ministers. While the short-term prospects for growth in 2014 and 2015 remain rosy, there is growing concern that the slowdown will be difficult to stop.
STEP FORWARD FOR HEALTH BILL
Dying  patients could be given access to untested medicines from early next year after the Government  and senior doctors gave their backing to Lord Saatchi's Medical Innovation Bill, Chris Hope reports. Significantly, the GMC, which had previously opposed any change in the law, has given its tentative backing to the Bill. Lord Saatchi began his campaign after the death of his wife, Josephine Hart, from ovarian cancer. Supporters say that the Bill will allow victims of rare forms of cancer to volunteer to be treated with untried drugs.
STRAWS IN THE WIND?
Two interesting polls over the weekend. ComRes's regular poll for the Indy on Sunday and the Mirror tweaked their metholodgy for Ukip slightly. One sample was asked in the usual way to indicate support for "the Big Three" or one of the others, resulting in a bump for that party from 19% to 24%. (That's not to say that treating Nigel Farage's party in the same way is necessarily the correct way to gauge that party's support,as Anthony Wells explains.) Meanwhile, YouGov re-ran its question about a Tory-Ukip pact for the Times, again finding that it results in a poll boost for Labour. Ukip voters seem to be more opposed to the pact than their Conservative counterparts. Kippers divide 57% to 30% against an alliance, while just 48% of Tories oppose a pact to 29% in favour..BILLY GOAT GRAYLING
Internet trolls who post abusive messages online could face up to two years in prison after Chris Grayling announced plans to quadruple the maximum prison sentence, Nick Watt reports. Mary Beard, who was subjected to online abuse, says that she is "far from convinced that longer prison sentences are the answer". 
DON'T GET SICK IN THE VALLEYS
The BMA, Plaid Cymru, the Conservative Party and Labour MP Ann Clywd are all demanding an inquiry into the NHS in Wales, the Mail reports. A Mail investigation has revealed medical records that have been altered or gone missing, six nurses arrested on criminal charges with more expected and elderly patients denied food and water for long spells."Labour's NHS Shame Exposed" is their splash. A spokesperson for the Cardiff administration says: "The vast majority of people in Wales receive excellent care" and adds "if issues are identified, we will work quickly to put them right". Wales is the biggest loser from the Barnett formula which decides how Treasury funds are divvied up between the United Kingdom.
THE SUPREMES
Supreme Court judges have backed moves to widen the selection to include legal academics and other legal professionals outside the judiciary to increase the diversity of the Court, Frances Gibb reports in the Times. Of the twelve judges, just one is a woman and none are from minority ethnic backgrounds. Lord Wilson of Culworth explains: "Here there is no witness box, the facts are sorted out one way or another, there ar epure points of laws and questions of legal argument...that is a job an academic could do without previous court experience."  YOU'RE FIRED, FREUD?
Labour will force Lord Freud's future to a vote in the House, Georgia Graham reports. The PM refused to dismiss the peer from his post at the DWP after he said that some disabled workers were "not worth" the full wage. It could lead to a Coalition row if Liberal Democrat MPs back the motion. 
FIVE MORE YEARS?The Fixed-Term Parliaments Act should be axed and replaced with a "gentleman's agreement" among Coalition parties, Richard Drax, a backbench Conservative MP, has said. Mr Drax launches a bid to repeal the Act that will be debated on Thursday, Chris Hope writes. 

OH SARAH
The Social Action, Responsibility and Heroism (or 'Sarah' if you like) Bill reaches its final stages in the House today. The Bill - which is intended to protect so-called "have a go heroes" from legal sanctions - is certainly pithy at just around the 100 word mark. Sir Edward Garnier, the PM's first Solicitor General, has warned that the Bill will ultimately become “the subject of derision”. 
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his workhere.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. 
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
Gatwick’s vision is of two world-class airports in London helping to connect the country to the rest of the world. We want to see Gatwick grow, and Heathrow improve.As connections to emerging markets become more important, and the UK’s core European markets continue to grow, we need a network of airports, enabling London to function as a true global city and our economy and tourism to thrive as a result.
POLL OF POLLS


Poll of polls 10th to 17th October (Opinium-Populus-ICM-IpsosMori-Survation-YouGov)
Conservatives 31% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 16% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
ComRes: Conservatives 31% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 19%
ComRes (prompting for Ukip): Conservatives 29% Labour 31% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 24%
Populus: Conservatives 33% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 10% Ukip 14%
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 35%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 16%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@christopherhope: No of cops on Parliament Sq: 12. No of protesters: 12. The situation might be described as "evenly balanced". #occupy
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Isabel Hardman - Even the silliest trolls leave big footprints
Boris Johnson - This trade deal with America would have Churchill beaming
From elsewhere 

Mark Ferguson - Labour's plan to put fans on football club boards should be welcomed (Guardian)
Yasmin Alibhai-Brown - Russell Brand will only fail his fans(Independent)
AGENDA0900 LONDON: Nick Clegg monthly press conference. 
0900: Radiographers strike across the country. Radiographers across the UK will strike for 4 hours from 9am in a row with the Government over pay. 
0930 LONDON: Alan Milburn launches Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission's second annual 'State of the Nation' report. 
2235: Nick Clegg among the guests on ITV's The Agenda.
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
COMMONS
Defence Questions
Social Action, Responsibility and Heroism Bill - Report stage and third reading
A motion to approve a Church of England Measure: Bishops and Priests (Consecration and Ordination of Women)
A short debate on the future of West Cumberland Hospital
LORDS
Introductions of Baroness Harding of Winscombe and Baroness Mobarik
Questions
Armed Forces (Service Complaints and Financial Assistance) Bill [HL] - Third reading
Criminal Justice and Courts Bill - Report stage

Brexit music..

 "One last go at negotiating a better deal"? That was David Cameron's offer on the campaign trail yesterday, Chris Hope and Bruno Waterfield report. A YouGov poll for the Sun finds that 71% of voters don't believe that the PM can pull it off, while Labour's Gareth Thomas says that it won't happen while Mr Cameron "spends more time negotiating with his backbenchers than negotiating with other European leaders".
Closer to home, those backbenchers may secure the U-turn on the European Arrest Warrant that they crave, Rowena Mason writes in the Guardian. That U-turn, coupled with the stronger controls on migration, may be enough to win back the Ukip defectors to the Conservative fold, but James Kirkup is sceptical. Those who believe otherwise have been boosted by a new poll showing two thirds of Kippers want a Tory majority government after the next election, however.
Meanwhile, the PM's plan for an Australian-style points system or an "emergency brake" will be "immensely difficult" to secure and are possibly illegal under EU law, a senior European diplomat tells the Telegraph.  But don't despair, the Sun declares in its leader: "The EU needs us to stay. We don't believe it will call Britain's bluff if the PM hands it an ultimatum." Besides, our leader notes, "winning genuine reform on the issue is the best way for Mr Cameron to win his referendum".


DEJA VU
Jim Pickard reveals that a new anti-Ukip unit has been formed by Ed Miliband to tackle the seepage of Labour voters to Nigel Farage's party in the FT.  The unit will be headed up by Yvette Cooper, John Healey, Jon Trickett and Caroline Flint, four of the party's most senior Northern MPs and report to Douglas Alexander. But the unit has already come under fire from Labour insiders for being more of the same after a previous anti-Ukip unit launched in February failed to prevent Mr Farage's party finishing first in the European elections or giving Labour a fright in Heywood & Middleton. It's the same  new anti-Ukip unit has been blasted by Labour insiders as more of the same. That Labour's anti-Green unit is headed by Sadiq Khan, an Ed Miliband supporter, while none of the MPs responsible for tackling Mr Farage voted for the Labour leader, shows that it is low down the Labour leader's list of priorities, sources tell me.
ISIL FIGHTERS COULD BE TRIED FOR TREASON
British jihadis who go to fight for Isil in Syria and Iraq could be tried for treason, Philip Hammond said in the House yesterday. Although no-one has been prosecuted for treason since William Joyce was hanged for his role in German propaganda broadcasts in 1946, the offence remains on the statute books, Steven Swinford explains. 
NIGEL NO MATES
Ukip are close to £1m the poorer after Iveta Grigule, MEP for the Latvian Farmers Union, left his anti-EU grouping in the European Parliament. It means that the group does not represent enough European nations to have speaking rights and loses access to a large chunk of EU funding, Andy Grice explains in the Indy. It's the result of dirty tricks from Martin Schulz, the president of the Parliament, Mr Farage says, who adds that Mr Schulz would be more suited to a "banana republic" than the European Parliament.
BALLS CHOPPED?
The Times reports that close allies of Ed Balls fear that he could be moved from his position at the head of the shadow Treasury team. Sources tell Sam Coates that the Shadow Chancellor's opposition to capping tuition fees at £6,000 is at the root of the problem, but I'm told that it was Team Miliband, not Team Balls, who were behind the decision not to announce a lower cap on fees at conference in order to focus on the NHS. The leader's office has two big, as yet unrevealed announcements, that will be released nearer the election for maximum impact. Elsewhere, Jim Pickard has a primer on the key factions within the Labour Party. 

BETTER OFF WITH AN APPLE A DAYFour out of five hospitals inspected by regulators are not safe, Laura Donnelly reports. The findings come from Care Quality Commission, a new "Ofsted for hospitals" introduced by Jeremy Hunt to improve clinical care. 
LABOUR VS GLAZERS
A Labour government would give supporters a legal right to at least two directors on the board of football clubs and a first refusal on an 10% chunk when 30% or above of a stake of any club in England or Wales changed hands, Owen Gibson reports in the Guardian.
IT'S UP TO EU TO STOP EBOLA
The PM will call on other European leaders to "do more" to stop the spread of Ebola by screening at airports at a European summit today. To date, only Britain, France and the Czech Republic have introduced screening. A  LOT OF MONEY FOR A LAWN ORNAMENT
A statue of David Cameron on a bike fetched around £25,000 when it was sold at a fundraisers' auction, according to James Lyons in the Mirror.
LOVE DON'T ROAM
"I'm fairly certain I've never had sex south of the river," Chris Bryant MP tells the Times Diary.
AND SO HE SPOKE, AND SO HE SPOKE
Michael Gove has praised fan favourite Tyrion Lannister of the popular Game of Thrones sequence of novels, praising this "misshapen dwarf...thought to be in the eyes of some, a toxic figure" in a surreal video that you can watch here. 
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his workhere.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. 
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
Better regulation, new aircraft technologies, increasing competition and innovation are reshaping aviation. Low cost carriers now account for more than 50% of the UK short haul market and they are expanding intothe business sector and medium and long haul markets. New ‘hub-buster’ aircraft such as Boeing’s 787 are able to fly people further and at less cost than ever before, reducing the need to transfer between flights.
POLL OF POLLS

Poll of polls 10th to 17th October (Opinium-Populus-ICM-IpsosMori-Survation-YouGov)
Conservatives 31% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 16% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 31%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 18%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
Another MP tries to outflank Ukip:
@jreedmp: People who take their shoes off on the train. Capital offence?
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Fraser  Nelson - Ebola may be gruesome but it's not the biggest threat to Africa
Jeremy Warner - For stock markets, October is the cruellest month
From elsewhere 

Gaby Hinsliff - Lord Freud was crass, but he's started a vital discussion on self-employment (Guardian)
John McTernan - Small world for UK politicians (Scotsman)
AGENDA1530 LONDON: A petition calling on the Prime Minister to intervene in the blasphemy case of Mohammad Asghar to be delivered.
1630 LONDON: Living Wage Action at HMRC. A group of Whitehall Cleaners and supporters will be leafleting civil servants
IN THE HOUSE
European Union (Referendum) Bill - Second reading.
Transparency and Accountability Bill - Second reading.
EU Membership (Audit of Costs and Benefits) Bill - Second reading.
Health Service Commissioner for England (Complaint Handling) Bill - Second reading.
Wild Animals in Circuses Bill - Second reading.
Service Charges, Gratuities and Cover Charges (Hospitality, Leisure and Service Sectors) (Statutory Code) Bill - Second reading.
House of Commons Members' Fund Bill - Second reading.
Civil Partnership Act 2004 (Amendment) Bill - Second reading.
Specialist Printing Equipment and Materials (Offences) Bill - Second reading.
A short debate on journey times between London and Worcester on the North Cotswold line

Rumble in Rochester..

David Cameron and a phalanx of MPs are on their way to Rochester, where they will begin their campaign to stop the People's Army in its tracks. Already in Rochester is our own Matt Holehouse, who has written an essential profile of Nigel Farage's latest recruit Mark Reckless. Today's campaign stop will followed by a 1,000 member blitzkrieg of the constituency, with CCHQ relying on its superior machine and financial capacity to outgun Ukip. 
The latest clutch of polls show why they must succeed.  Record showings for Survation (25%) and ICM (14%) are now followed by Ukip's highest ever showing for YouGov (16%) and IpsosMori (16%). It's hurting both parties - Labour are down to 34% in our rolling average while the Conservatives are down to 31% - but it's the Tories who have the most to lose from the Ukip surge. 
It may take something more than a superior ground game to see off Mr Reckless. The PM signalled his backbenchers that further red meat was on its way as far as European migration was concerned. Francis Elliot reports in the Times that Downing Street is considering demanding an "emergency brake" on migration, although Number 10 is divided about whether or not the PM should make his move before the by-election or after. Tom Newton Dunn has got the details for the Sun. The PM willmake control over Britain's borders a "red line" in his renegotiation with the European Union, and will back a British exit in the 2017 referendum if he doesn't get his way. 
The hope was to hold back the announcement until nearer the election, with the decision to adopt the plans made in the summer, but the policy will be unveiled sooner rather than later, in order to spike Mr Farage's guns. The danger, as Tom puts it, "with firing a big bazooka is that it then leaves the armoury empty - and you're left with only prayers that it works." 

A FREUDIAN SLIP
Ed Miliband scored a surprise victory in the House yesterday thanks to Lord Freud's remarks at a Conservative Party fringe that some disabled people were "not worth" the minimum wage. "Labour have got their press operation in gear on this one," purr the team at Order-Order, who appreciate a good going-over when they see one. The Opposition have more Conference gaffes in the can, a Labour insider tells Steven Swinford. 
AN EXPENSIVE MISTAKE
Mistakes in the NHS cost £2.5 billion a year, Jeremy Hunt will say today.  The most common costs of poor care include urinary tract infections, blood clots and bed sores. Laura Donnelly has the details.

EAW NO!Jacob Rees-Mogg has joined forces with Stuart Wheeler, the Ukip millionaire who has been instrumental in recruiting Conservative defectors, in order to block the European Arrest Warrant, Matt Holehouse and Chris Hope report. The EAW must be approved by the 1st of December; a further Euro-headache that the PM could really do without. 
TIP OF THE ICEBERG"Rotherham abuse scandal is tip of iceberg - police chief" is the Guardian's splash. Simon Bailey, the chief constable of the Norfolk police force, tells Randeep Ramesh that sex crimes involving children have "for too long been a hidden crime". 
OVER FOR A GENERATION? 
Nicola Sturgeon has been confirmed as Alex Salmond's successor as leader of the SNP and First Minister after no other candidates came forward to challenge her for the leadership. Scotland will become an independent country "well within her lifetime", Ms Sturgeon says. Simon Johnson has the story.
ARE YOU LOCAL?
Half of the housing stock in new developments will be reserved for "local" first-time buyers seeking to become owner-occupiers under a Labour government, the party has pledged. People will have to live in an area for two years to qualify as "local", the party explained.  
THE CAM IN WHITEHALL KNOWS BEST
The PM will have the final say over new permanent secretaries, from a shortlist drawn up by the Civil Service, the FT reports. The move has been strongly resisted within Whitehall although the PM's victory has been greeted by approval from all three parties. 
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; see a gallery of his workhere.  You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", or on Twitter. 
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
Gatwick can connect Britain to the future, faster. A new runway at Gatwick can be delivered by 2025, at no additional cost to the taxpayer. A third runway at Heathrow would cost more than twice as much, be part-funded by the British taxpayer, and involve tunneling the M25 and introducing a road congestion charge at the airport.
POLL OF POLLS

Poll of polls 9th to 16th October (Opinium-Populus-ICM-IpsosMori-Survation-YouGov)
Conservatives 31% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 16% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
IpsosMori: Conservatives 30%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 16%
YouGov: Conservatives 30%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 18%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@timothy_stanley: Wish there'd been a Soviet #TheApprentice - teams compete to falsify grain production statistics. No one gets fired.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Peter Oborne - Nigel Farage's fifth columnists help no-one but Miliband

James Kirkup - Our armed forces need some new enemies
Iain Martin - The Tories must pray that the economic news is positive between now and the general election
From elsewhere 

David Aaronovitch - Our politicians are so useless it makes me want to scream (Times)
George Eaton - Labour is not at war, but Ed Miliband desperately needs to inspire his supporters (Statesman)
Jane Merrick - I'm all for people stopping smoking. But banning it in parks is not the answer
AGENDA0900: Call Clegg on LBC 97.3. 
1000 EDINBURGH: MSPs take evidence on the future of devolution. 
1030 LONDON: Theresa May at Intelligence and Security Committee.