..

Almost every time I go to this cafe in the late afternoon, I see the couple sitting at the same window table. They are both attractive, middle aged, and well dressed. The one really noticeable thing about them is the woman's auburn red hair. I'm always pleased to see them because they appear to be genuinely content with each other's company. They are almost always reading magazines or newspapers and drinking something. They rarely speak to each other but there is a peace around them, a balance you can almost physically see in certain couples. When one has finished with their reading material they automatically hand it to their partner. The other takes it without a word and lays it down on the seat between them. The person without the magazine drinks their coffee or looks out the window until the other is finished reading. Then they talk for a brief time, sometimes laughing quietly, always paying full attention to what is being said. They are like an island of tranquility in the middle of all the human rush. Seeing them, watching them, invariably makes me feel a little better.

Jonathan Carroll

Every little helps..

You can fight Scottish Labour. You can fight Westminster. You can fight David Cameron or Gordon Brown. But it's very difficult to fight the supermarkets. 

The separatist campaign, only so recently on the advance, appears to have been knocked back. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has rebutted Mr Salmond's claims that a Yes vote would make the NHS better off. Businesses have outlined their plans to quit in the event of a "Yes" vote. And Waitrose, Asda and John Lewis have all warned that prices would also rise - "Vote Yes and food bills will soar" is the Mail's take. 
Fractiousness and a tendency for unforced errors appear to be creeping into the Yes campaign.  Alex Salmond's cracking up, says Alan Cochraneafter a bad-tempered press conference from the First Minister. Meanwhile, John Swinney, the SNP's finance minister, is in hot water after telling a naval veteran who had just seen £7,000 wiped off his pension by market turmoil that these things "go up and down". 
Now a second successive poll - this one for YouGov in today's Sun and Times - has the Unionist campaign regaining lost ground. (The numbers are No 52%, Yes 48%.) The numbers are too close to say with any certainty whether the Union will prevail next Thursday - but it's Better Together who are on the front foot once again as the campaign enters its last days. 
 
HAMMOND'S HOKEY-COKEY
Confusion reigned yesterday about Britain's role in Barack Obama's planned assault against Isil. At around lunchtime, Philip Hammond was he was "very clear" that British planes would not be involved in strikes within Syria. But at 4:30pm, Downing Street rowed back from the Foreign Secretary's statement. "The Prime Minister has not ruled anything in or out" is the line. (Ben Farmer has the details)
ACTOR LANDS ROLE AS SACRIFICIAL LAMB
Giles Watling, the actor, has been selected as the Conservatives parliamentary candidate in Clacton. Michael Gove believes that an anti-Ukip front will see Mr Watling prevail against the odds, the Times reports. The Tories are hoping to recreate the Newark strategy, the only by-election in the course of the parliament where the collapse in the Liberal vote helped rather than harmed the Conservatives.
STEP OUTSIDE, BROWN TELLS SALMONDAlex Salmond is using the NHS as a prop in his bid for a Yes vote, Gordon Brown has said in his latest speech in defence of the Union,Auslan Cramb reports. Mr Brown also suggested that if the First Minister continues to "peddle this deception", he'll have no option but to stand for election to Holyrood to take the fight to Mr Salmond.
HANGING ON THE TELEPHONE
It's official: Ukip are part of the Establishment. They might not have the seats in the House of Lords that they crave but they've got one better: a fortnightly radio show for Nigel Farage on LBC, starting this morning at 9. The People's Army are also on the offensive north of the border, although they have "no intention of being incendiary", Mr Farage assured listeners on Today this morning.
BAN PAVEMENT PARKING, CHARITY SAYS
Backbench MPs Tracey Crouch and Martin Horwood, as well as the Shadow Transport Minister Richard Burden, are among the signatories to a letter to the Times calling for a national law restricting pavement parking to help the visually impaired and parents with babies. Laws against pavement parking in place for London in 40 years to good effect, according to Guide Dogs for the Blind.
The Morning Briefing is written by Stephen Bush, who tweets as @stephenkb. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his cartoons on Instagram.

Poll of polls 5th to 12th September, Labour lead of four points (Populus-YouGov)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Con 31% Lab 35% LD 7% Ukip 16%
TWEETS & TWITS
@StewartWood: Love the word "small": "@rowenamason: Website of Clacton Tory candidate, Giles Watling, says he's a keen sailor who owns "two small yachts""
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
Rory Bremner - Why this proud Scot has a very big but 
Fraser Nelson - British reserve may prove the undoing of the union
Peter Hain - Mr Salmond, you're no Nelson Mandela
Cristina Odone - Battle for independence is replaying the struggles of Catholic Scotland
From elsewhere
Philip Collins  - A Yes win means the return of the Blairites (Times)
Gillian  Tett - Fortress finance pulls up the virtual drawbridge  (FT)
TELEGRAPH FESTIVAL OF BUSINESS
The Telegraph Festival of Business is taking place once again on the 11th November, at The Brewery, London. Confirmed speakers include: Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP Group, Sir Charlie Mayfield, Chairman of the John Lewis Partnership, Nigel Wilson,Chief Executive of Legal & General, Tim Steiner, CEO of Ocado and Roger Bootle, Founder of Capital Economics and former HM Treasury Advisor. To register for your free place at the event, click here.
AGENDA
0845 LONDON: George Osborne bilateral investment talks with Chinese vice-premier Ma Kai.
0900 LONDON: Nigel Farage LBC phone-in.
0900 LONDON: War on Want campaigners demonstration to highlight fashion workers pay and conditions. 
1000 ABERDEEN: First Minster on the campaign trail.
1030 GLASGOW: Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will be joined by actors Martin Compston and Peter Mullan on the campaign trail.
1030 GLASGOW: Minister for employment relations and consumer affairs Jo Swinson will urge people in Scotland "not to walk away from the progressive agenda being built as part of the UK".
1100 FALKIRK: Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont will be campaigning in Falkirk.
1500 SHEFFIELD: Nick Clegg speech at launch of IPPR North report on decentralisation.
1545 PERTH: Deputy First Minister and First Minister will meet Yes activists for campaigning. They are visiting Scotland's seven cities in one day.
1900 LONDON: Uxbridge & South Ruislip candidate hustings. The four finalists, including Boris Johnson, will make their presentations before the association members.
1930 EDINBURGH: Unionist MPs and academics talk to workers. Danny Alexander MP, George Galloway MP, former MP Brian Wilson and Academics Together professors Adam Tomkins and Ronald MacDonald will speak at a free event for business owners, employees, Trade Union members and officials organised by pro-Union campaign Working For Scotland.
0900 LONDON: Maria Eagle launches national campaign against air pollution.
0945 KILMARNOCK: Former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown will make the case for Scotland staying in the UK at a Better Together rally. He will be joined at the rally by local Labour MP Cathy Jamieson and shadow pensions minister Gregg McClymont MP.
1030 EDINBURGH: Alex Salmond takes part in international press conference on independence.
1130 BALLINDALLOCH: SNP rural affairs spokesperson, Richard Lochhead, will set out a 10 point plan to deliver a 'Rural Renaissance' for Scotland using the powers of independence.
1215 LONDON: London bus drivers pay protest.
1800 GLASGOW: Scottish history expert Niall Ferguson delivers speech on referendum. The Harvard professor will offer his analysis under the title: "Kicking the Life Back into a Dying Mutual Friend: A Letter from America on Independence.

The empire strikes back..

Top marks for the essay crisis Prime Minister this morning. "If this was faking sincerity, it was a tour de force," James Hanning writes in the Indy, of Dave's emotional address in support of the Union."The leaders are in a panic, but in this instance, they've panicked well," says Isabel Hardman of Better Together's counterpunch. 
It's contributed to a bad day at the office for Alex Salmond. Unease on the markets led both Lloyds and RBS to confirm that they have plans in place to relocate to England in the event of a Yes vote, while BP and Shell backed the expert analysis that oil will have all but run out by 2050. The First Minister came off worse in his third and final scrap with Alistair Darling - this time on Mumsnet. And to cap it all off, a new Survation poll for the Daily Record has put the Unionists back in the lead - it's Yes 47%, No 53%. "Alex's Black Wednesday" is their splash.
"We've Got Our Nos In Front" is the Mirror's take. Yes, of course, it's just one poll, and the fieldwork took place before the Three Musketeers rode into town. There was an expectation in Better Together that the polls would boomerang following the reaction - on the doorstep as well as the trading floor - to that YouGov poll that showed the separatists pulling ahead. These figures, if repeated, would suggest that the more level-headed noises coming out of Edinburgh on Saturday may start to look rather more farsighted than they did at the time. 
 
DOWNING ISIL
Barack Obama will provide further arms to the Syrian opposition and expand the American air campaign against Islamic State into Syria, in order to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the organisation. The President believes that only a wider assault on Isil in Iraq and Syria can defeat the organisation. The whips were asking last night how far from London they will be during the recess in should there be a Yes vote next week  - but it could be foreign affairs, not Yes Scotland, that force a parliamentary recall in the end.
HILL BE PLEASEDLord Hill of Oareford has bagged a top post in Jean-Claude Juncker's European Commission - subject to a vote by MEPs. Lord Hill's role as commissioner for financial services is a victory for the PM afer tense talks with M Juncker, Bruno Waterfield reports. It's a good day for the European centre-right all round, Peter Spiegel explains in the FT. That the key posts have gone to the reform-minded and the fiscally hawkishmakes it a good day for the PM, although the appointment of Pierre Moscovici to the economic affairs post means that there will be battles ahead to protect the City of London.
THE FIRST KING OF SCOTLAND?
"You know you've just elected the first Prime Minister of Scotland, don't you?" That's what Stuart Pratt, Alex Salmond's election agent, was told on the night that Mr Salmond first entered Parliament as the SNP's MP for Banff and Buchan. Mure Dickie profiles the man who could be kingin the FT.  "It says a great deal about Mr Salmond's political style that even many people who have been watching him for decades struggle to say what - beyond independence for Scotland - he stands for," says Mure.
SPEAK FOR ENGLAND
Trouble at t'mill. John Redwood asked who in the government will "speak for England" in the event of a Yes vote, or, indeed, during conversations over further powers for Scotland in the House yesterday. The grumbling over the Barnett formula and the West Lothian Question is getting louder, and it's not just Conservative MPs calling for a stronger voice for England. Over at LabourList, John Denham calls for an English Labour Party - whatever happens on the 18th.
PUBLIC SECTOR FACES BLACKOUT
There are only six people who are non-white in the top 268 leadership roles in the most prominent public bodies. (The figures do not include elected officials in government or local authorities.) The public sector is lagging behind the private, where, former equalities supremo Trevor Philips says, where "the colour that counts is green not brown or black".  Mr Philips has called for a version of the American National Football League's "Rooney Rule" - where football teams are required to interview at least one minority ethnic candidate for a position - for the state sector.
THE BEAST SPEAKS 
Marcial Boo's call for a 10% pay rise for MPs was "an intended insult to the Trade Union Conference and designed to get a reaction," Dennis Skinner believes. The Beast of Bolsover sat down with Kevin Maguire for a chat. He's against Scottish independence: "I can't understand some of the trade unionists falling for flag-waving in Scotland. It's meaningless. We're citizens of the world." Dave looks "increasingly like the man from TV that he once was". Ed Miliband, meanwhile, "needs to get out more".
A PRICY PINT
Jeremy Hunt has "a great deal of sympathy" for the idea of charging drunks money if they end up in A&E units. Taxpayers should not have to pay for those who have gone "over the top" on a night out, Mr Hunt told LBC.
A MOUNTAIN OF MAMMON
An independent Scotland would need to amass billions of pounds of currency reserves in order to use sterling without a formal currency union, Mark Carney told MPs yesterday. A Scottish central bank would need at least 25% and possibly more than 100% of GDP in reserves if Scotland is to continue using the pound after independence. The Governor also confirmed that the Bank is drawing up contingency plans in the event of a Yes Vote.
Two local councillors, Sue Lissimore and Giles Watling will go head-to-head today in an open primary to select the Conservative candidate for the Clacton by-election. Mr Watling, an actor director and producer, is best known for playing Oswald the Vicar in the sitcom "Bread".
THE BIG QUESTION
"Sir - What will Nigel Farage call his party if there is no United Kingdom?" asks Ian Smee in today's Letters.
The Morning Briefing is written by Stephen Bush, who tweets as @stephenkb. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his cartoons on Instagram.
POLL OF POLLS

Poll of polls 4th to 11th September, Labour lead of four points (Populus-YouGov)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Con 32% Lab 38% LD 6% Ukip 14% Green 5%
TWEETS & TWITS
@philipjcowley: Best recent academic conversation re #indyref: 'I've told all my friends it'll be no. I'll look like I don't know what I'm talking about'.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
Peter Oborne - Britain is facing its greatest constitutional crisis in 300 years
Helen Lewis - Women strike back in the video games sex war
Nigel Farage - Scots won't get independence from a Yes vote
From elsewhere
David Aaronovitch - Things fall apart with weak western leaders (Times)
George Eaton - Even if the Union endures, Westminster 's authority has been washed away (New Statesman)

Carol Craig  - The SNP have become Scotland's Pollyannas (Guardian)
TELEGRAPH FESTIVAL OF BUSINESS
The Telegraph Festival of Business is taking place once again on the 11th November, at The Brewery, London. Confirmed speakers include: Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP Group, Sir Charlie Mayfield, Chairman of the John Lewis Partnership, Nigel Wilson,Chief Executive of Legal & General, Tim Steiner, CEO of Ocado and Roger Bootle, Founder of Capital Economics and former HM Treasury Advisor. To register for your free place at the event, click here. 
AGENDA
0900: Call Clegg on LBC 97.3.
0900 LONDON: Maria Eagle launches national campaign against air pollution.
0945 KILMARNOCK: Former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown will make the case for Scotland staying in the UK at a Better Together rally. He will be joined at the rally by local Labour MP Cathy Jamieson and shadow pensions minister Gregg McClymont MP.
1030 EDINBURGH: Alex Salmond takes part in international press conference on independence.
1130 BALLINDALLOCH: SNP rural affairs spokesperson, Richard Lochhead, will set out a 10 point plan to deliver a 'Rural Renaissance' for Scotland using the powers of independence.
1215 LONDON: London bus drivers pay protest.
1800 GLASGOW: Scottish history expert Niall Ferguson delivers speech on referendum. The Harvard professor will offer his analysis under the title: "Kicking the Life Back into a Dying Mutual Friend: A Letter from America on Independence.MAN CANNOT LIVE BY BREAD ALONE

A bridge too far..

 Is Britain heading for a second war in Iraq? Or is David Cameron heading for another defeat in the Commons? 
"Britain gears up for war on Isil" is our splash. The PM's pledge to use "everything in our armoury" to take on Isil is widely reported. The whips are canvassing opinon, although, Peter Dominiczak reports, these soundings are not a sign that a decision has been taken.  It's not yet clear whether Barack Obama needs or wants British assistance in strikes against Isil. What is already agreed between the PM and the President is that further support will be provided to the people of Kurdistan, while both men will work together today to persuade France, Spain and Italy to live up to their pledge - made at last year's G8 - not to pay ransoms, the source of at least $60m in revenue for terrorist groups over the last five years. 
Is this the prelude to bombings and further engagement in the region. Opinion on the Conservative benches is increasingly in favour of intervention in Iraq, but Syria is another question entirely. For all the cross-party noises sounded by Labour in recent days, "Syria is a completely different story", as one senior figure tells Francis Elliot and Laura Pitel in the Times. The Opposition's dovish tendency is starting to turn up the volume, and the Mirror's call for "a public debate...not a rush to war" in their leader today will increase their confidence, and reduce Ed Miliband's capacity to support Mr Cameron in the Commons. As for the Liberal Democrats, they are even more jittery about the prospect of another conflict in that part of the world than Labour. 
 The PM was right yesterday to say that the problems in Iraq do not begin there, but in Syria, and that Bashar al-Assad is part of the problem, not the solution, in that region. But securing parliamentary approval even to tackle Isil in that country looks like a bridge too far - and attacking Isil in Iraq without dealing with the Syria question may well be impossible.

A CHANGE IS GONNA COME?
The PM could face a leadership challenge in the event of a Yes vote,  James Cusick reports in the Indy. "The move will take place immediately," one senior Tory MP says. A former government minister says a Yes vote would be a "horror show that David Cameron could not possibly survive". In the FT, it's Ed Miliband who is facing questions about his job in the event that Better Together is defeated on the 18th. There's an understanding within Downing Street that it would be politically impossible - not to mention dishonourable - to oversee the dismemberment of Her Majesty's kingdom and remain as her Prime Minister. Equally, Team Ed are all too aware that the end of the Union means the end of Mr Miliband's left-wing agenda. Bluntly, however, there will be a great deal to worry about if the Nationalists prevail - and the fates of Dave and Ed will be pretty low down the list. Gordon Brown will deliver a speech later today on the Scottish referendum to the think-tank Progress. 
HORSES FOR COURSES
Price wars between supermarkets could cause another horsemeat scandal because retailers are pushing suppliers to sell them food at less than its value, Steven Swinford reports.  and a mme of deficit reduction far heavier than that envisaged by George Osborne. Cuts to local authority budgets and trading standards departments has left consumers at dangerous risk of food report. Liz Truss has accepted the reccomendations of the report, although her Labour opposite number, Maria Eagle, criticised the government for having "dragged its heels" in the 18 months since the scandal.
TRAIN IN VAIN
The Liberal Democrats will match Labour's commitment to open up rail franchising to a nationalised operator at the next election, Sam Coates reports in the Times. They will also be tramping into the division lobby alongside Labour in support of Andrew George's bill to exempt people from the bedroom tax if they have not recieved a reasonable offer of alternative accomodation, potentially defeating the Tories, although the bill has little chance of passing the required hurdles to become law. The Liberals are also gearing up for battle over the timing of the 2015 budget in order, Allegra Stratton explains, to prevent George Osborne using it as a pre-election giveaway, and also to give them more time to promote their own policies. The Tories, however, have told Newsnight that they feel a giveaway budget would damage the credibility of their message of "economic revival and fiscal rectitude. 
STAMP IT OUT
Conservative MPs have warned that stamp duty is "clobbering" middle class families and forcing young people to "squat like overgrown cuckoos" in their homes, Steven Swinford reports. The Treasury's refusal to move thresholds in line  with the property boom "discourages the elderly from downsizing, and worst of all, is a barrier to young people looking for their first home", Jonathan Isaby of the TaxPayers' Alliance says. 
LAMMY JUMPS IN
David Lammy has officially launched his bid to become Labour's candidate for the London Mayoralty. He's launched early in order to steal a march on his rivals, who can all count on the support of one faction or another in the selection, I explain.
BABY, DON'T GOVE
Ukip are wooing Conservative and Labour MPs with polling showing that they are more likely to be re-elected under a Ukip barrier, Peter Dominiczak reports. The Chief Whip, Michael Gove, has launched a charm offensive to keep his wavering flock in the blue corner. 
AN UNEARTHLY CHILD
Nick Clegg's grilling by a precocious child, Rohan, on free school meals, is widely reported (you can see the clip here).  The child's grasp of the issue caused Team Nick to believe that they had been the victim of a dirty tricks campaign, although LBC are adamant that they spoke to the boy's parents and have since confirmed his identity and sincerity with his headteacher. 
The Morning Briefing is written by Stephen Bush, who tweets as @stephenkb. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his cartoons on Instagram.
POLL OF POLLS

Poll of polls 29th August to 5th September, Labour lead of four points (ComRes-Populus-Opinium-YouGov)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Con 32%, Lab 36%, LD 7%, Ukip 16%
TWEETS & TWITS
In fairness, it could have been M15: 
@kdugdalemsp: Just been yelled at to "go back to england if you love them that much" #charming
COMMENT
From the Telegraph


James Kirkup - Douglas Carswell may have just saved the Union
Isabel Hardman - We're losing the wrong sort of MPs: the ones with most to give
Fraser Nelson - Canada can show Cameron how to rescue our United Kingdom
From elsewhere

Philip Collins - Ed better persuade the Scots or he's toast (Times)Gillian Tett - An unequal world is an charted economic threat (FT)
Rafael Behr - It may not fit Putin's narrative, but Baltic Russians aren't being victimised (Guardian)
TELEGRAPH FESTIVAL OF BUSINESS
The Telegraph Festival of Business is taking place once again on the 11th November, at The Brewery, London. Confirmed speakers include: Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO of WPP Group, Sir Charlie Mayfield, Chairman of the John Lewis Partnership, Nigel Wilson,Chief Executive of Legal & General, Tim Steiner, CEO of Ocado and Roger Bootle, Founder of Capital Economics and former HM Treasury Advisor. To register for your free place at the event, click here. 
AGENDA
1000 ORKNEY: George Lyon, chair of Rural Together, Advocate General Lord Jim Wallace and Orkney MSP Liam McArthur say no vote will protect UK dividend for Scottish famers.
1000 LONDON: Gordon Brown speech on Scottish referendum.
1100 PORT GLASGOW: Labour's Scottish General Secretary and the party's UK General Secretary board the Indyrefexpress.
1230 EDINBURGH: Scottish Greens independence event.

Send in the drones..

The PM is in Newport for what our leader describes as "a defining moment in the organisation's 65-year history". As he and Barack Obama note in their joint op-ed in the Times, when Nato last met in Britain in 1990, the Cold War was ending and many thought that the alliance's relevance was coming to an end. Few doubt today that Nato must survive and thrive - but not many more can say with confidence that it it will. 

President Obama is facing criticism from his enemies and his allies, both at home and abroad. "Your move, Mr President" says the Independent's splash. Jack Straw's remarks on the Today programme that President Obama is "long on analysis" but short on solutions were met with nodding heads inside the Foreign Office yesterday. The PM's foreign policy chops are under scrutiny too - "David Cameron and Barack Obama have a few things in common," says the Sun's leader. "One is that they both need to grow a spine."  "Stop droning on Mr Cameron - Send In The Drones" is their splash.

Belatedly, the alliance is starting to strengthen its defences in Eastern Europe, and, in Westminster, as Peter Dominiczak reports, cross-party support for air strikes against Isil is building. Another question occurs - for all the Sun's poll may show that, in the wake of a horrific murder, the people want action, and fast, most people also greeted President Obama's more pacific foreign policy after a decade of "American aggression" with acclaim. We all say that we want the Prime Minister and the President to show leadership, be bold, and above all, Do Something.

But consider the fate of the last PM who Did Something: yes, Tony Blair was re-elected after invading Iraq, but these days even something as trivial as a magazine award becomes a proxy for people channelling anger over interventionist foreign policy. In my view, the PM is right to say that this "medievalist, murderous" ideology is the root of the problems in the Middle East, not Western action in Iraq. But Ed Miliband's defeat of the government during the Syria vote is still wildly popular a year on. So I wonder. Regardless of what we tell the pollsters, do we really want to do more?

GREECE IS THE WORD

Goldman Sachs has warned that Britain would be plunged into a "currency crisis" in the event of a Yes vote; "Yes vote could cause sterling crash" is our splash. Uncertainty over the future of Scotland's currency would cause a run on Scottish banks and a widespread sale of assets north of the border, Goldman estimate, raising the possibility that the Bank of England would have to intervene to prop up the pound within hours of a Yes vote, with the possibility of a "eurozone-style" crisis within the UK, similar to that which plagued Greece and Spain. As Simon Johnson explains in our Scottish edition, it would also mean, far from ushering in an era of Scandinavian-style social democracy, a 'Yes' vote would be followed by a programme of deficit reduction far heavier than that envisaged by George Osborne. 

REDS TO THE RESCUE

Better Together have a new gambit to persuade Scottish voters, George Parker explains in the FT: "reassure them David Cameron is about to lose the next election".  Ed Miliband rejoins the fray and will attack the Tories and declare that "change is coming to the UK".  Bluntly, the more likely a Conservative government looks after 2015 the more jittery that the undecided Labour voters become about staying in the Union, as this chart shows. That's why Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, has been talking down Dave's chances and will continue to do so. If the Union is to survive, "the words that Ed Miliband needs to keep saying are: "as Prime Minister I will.." one Labour strategist explains. Equally, that's why the PM is keen to play down any idea that he'll stand down in the event of a "Yes" vote, as he did on the Today programme just now. The effort from all sides now is on closing down the SNP's avenues of appeal to Labour waverers. Meanwhile Jim Murphy, who resumed his 100 Streets campaign yesterday, writes in the Mirror about his experience of the campaign so far.  

GO GO BOJO

Two Conservative MPs are calling on Boris Johnson to stand in Clacton. Matthew Offord and John Stevenson made the call in an article for ConHome. Chris Hope finds that that Messrs Offord and Stevenson are by no means alone in their liking for the idea. It's tricky for the Mayor - the demographics are against him and the polls so far show that he'd make little difference if he did, potentially jeopardising his reputation as "the Heineken Tory" who can reach parts of the electorate his rival cannot. On the other hand, staying out of Clacton could make him look as if he doesn't have the stomach for a tough fight. 

CHECK BEHIND THE SOFA, HOME OFFICE SUGGESTS

The Home Office has lost track of more than 50,000 illegal immigrants, Steven Swinford and Matt Holehouse report. The immigrants, who have been told to leave the country, have been granted a "de facto amnesty". "Complacent Home Office loses 175,000 illegal immigrants" is the Mail's take. 

NO MARKS FOR NEWMARK

"Stick to your knitting, minister tells campaigning charities" is the Guardian's headline. Brooks Newmark, the new minister for civil society, has told charities they should "stick to their knitting" and stay out of politics. It's "patronising" and "offensive", Labour's Lisa Nandy says. 

SECURITY SPLIT

On the Today programme, David Cameron defended his counter-terrorism proposals. There should be "something in the locker" to stop people returning to Britain. The question raised by Dominic Grieve in a piece for the Guardian today -  "Where are the common law pirnciples of freedom under the law and the presumption of innoncence if individuals cannot return to face prosecution and trial in their own country?" - remains unanswered. 

THEY SAVED DAVE'S BRAIN

Former Cameron guru Steve Hilton speaks to Seb Payne for the Washington Post, and strikes a markedly Carswellian tone.  “In both countries, you do have a sense that people are really feeling that their political system doesn’t properly represent them,” he says. “There is this sense they want to have more control and more power. There’s a sense of frustration that is something very common.”

The Morning Briefing is written by Stephen Bush, who tweets as @stephenkb. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his cartoons on Instagram.

POLL OF POLLS

Poll of polls 28th August to 4th September, Labour lead of four points (ComRes-Populus-Opinium-YouGov)

TODAY'S POLLS:

YouGov: Con 33%, Lab 36%, LD 7%, Ukip 14%

TWEETS & TWITS

Oh, SNAP!

@IanCLucas: Tories' obsession with the Speaker is tedious in the extreme.

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Richard Spencer - A journey into the mind of 'Jihadi John'

Ruth Dudley Edwards - Theresa Villiers is telling Sinn Fein where to get off 

James Kirkup - What should the Tories say about the booming economy? Absolutely nothing

Peter Oborne - Cameron can chart a course past Farage the revolutionary

From elsewhere

Isabel Hardman - How Eurosceptics will squeeze Cameron (Spectator)Stephen Glover - Just two weeks left to save Britain (Mail) 

John Rentoul - Tony Blair had every right to win the GQ award for philanthropy (Independent)

George Eaton - The Tories are losing - so why doesn't it feel like Labour is winning? (New Statesman) 

AGENDA

0900: Call Clegg on LBC 97.3. 

0930 LONDON: Oliver Letwin, Steve Webb and Lord Glasman speak at launch of Breakthrough Britain report by Centre for Social Justice.

1000 EDINBURGH: Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael meets voters.

1000 PERTH: Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson sets out the defence case for Scotland staying in the Uk at an event attended by veterans.

1030 BLANTYRE: Labour leader to join referendum campaign trail. MP Ed Miliband will join Scottish party leader Johann Lamont, deputy leader Anas Sarwar and shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran at the event.

1800 NEWCASTLE: Implications of Scottish independence for the north of England to be discussed. Dr Angus Armstrong, director of macroeconomic research at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and Bridget Phillipson, MP for Houghton and Sunderland South, will discuss the likelihood of independence and what this would mean for the north of England for IPPR North.

1830 LONDON: Boris Johnson will give a lecture entitled Athenian Civilisation: The Glory that Endures. 

1900 GLASGOW: Referendum debate to be held by the Ethnic Minority 3rd Sector Network. Labour MSP Ken Macintosh and Scottish Government minister Humza Yousaf will take part in the event

Terrorism..

 "A Briton will be next warns 'Jihadi John' as he beheads second captive" is our headline, and the threat that a British hostage - an aid worker who, at the family's request, remains nameless -will be next, dominates today's papers. 
The killing of a second American hostage, the journalist Steven Sotloff, has relegated the ongoing row about what, if any, substance there is to the PM's new anti-terror proposals to the margins, but it's all part of the same question: namely, what, exactly does Mr Cameron plan to do about it all? Even if we wanted to stay out, it's a conflict that is at home as much as it is abroad, as today's reports that pupils at a school from the centre of the alleged "Trojan Horse"  plot were shown a jihadist video by staff, and the PM recognises as much. 

Understanding the stakes, though, has never been the PM's problem. La Repubblica, an Italian daily, has obtained details of the closed-door talks in Brussels on Saturday, when the PM warned his European counterparts that in appeasing Vladimir Putin, they run the risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1930s, and the remarks are picked up bythe Sun, the Guardian and the Mail.  But for all the PM recognises that Something Must Be Done, he doesn't appear to have got very far at actually doing anything.  
The PM heads to Newport tomorrow having, as Patrick Wintour writesin the Guardian today, lost any illusions about Vladimir Putin. The priority for the summit is to make it clear that Nato is serious about its obligations on the world stage, in Ukraine and in the Middle East (where regional unrest is a very real threat to alliance member Turkey). Downing Street is frustrated at what they see as a lack of leadership from the White House, but Britain still faces major challenges of its own in trying to provide that leadership itself. 

HURLING STERLING
"Scots vote fears rattle City" is the FT's splash. Yesterday's YouGov poll has sent jitters through the money markets. Sterling was down from $1.658 per £1 to $1.649, while shares in companies with cross-border interests, including Lloyds and RBS, were hit. Meanwhile, Ollie Rehn, the vice-president of the European Parliament, and fromer European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, has pooh-poohed the idea that Scotland would be able to keep the pound and remain members of the European Union after independence. EU membership requires access to an independent central bank, so without a currency union, Scotland would either have to use a different currency or remain firmly shut out of the EU, Szu Ping Chan explains.
THE BIRTHDAY FROM HELL 
"Unhappy birthday for Dave" is the Mirror's page 2 lead. The Clacton by-election has been scheduled for October 9th - the PM's 48th birthday. Lord Ashcroft's poll of the constituency suggests that he's likely to receive at least one unwanted gift: a drubbing from Douglas Carswell and Ukip. (No receipt on this one, I'm afraid.)  Lord Ashcroft's poll shows Ukip on course to take 56% to the Conservatives 24%, confirming the grim prognosis of the Survation poll at the weekend. Keep calm and focus on 2015 was the message to Tory backbenchers last night. Alastair Burt was cheered for his widely reported remark that Mr Carswell had "stabbed us all in the back" by making it harder to get a referendum on EU membership.
BERCOMING OUT FIGHTING
John Bercow sat down with George Parker in the FT. To say that the appointment is a power grab by his office is "nonsense on stilts", he says. It's all about modernising the Commons, Mr Bercow argues. While the clerks are "a very special group of people", he says, "there is another discipline and that discipline is management.”
REPORT "THE PLANE TRUTH", DAVIES SAYS
Sir Howard Davies is in a war of words with Boris Johnson. It's nonsense to condemn the estuary airport says Mr Johnson in the Indy and the Guardian. It's a "lie" to say that the report has been fixed by the Civil Service, Sir Howard hits back in the Guardian. 
BLAIR ENOUGH
Tony Blair has been named "Philanthropist of the Year" at the GQ Awards for his "tireless charity work". The Mirror's not pleased: "Blair-Faced Cheek" is their headline. 
The Morning Briefing is written by Stephen Bush, who tweets as@stephenkb. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his cartoons on Instagram.
POLL OF POLLS

Poll of polls 27th August to 3rd September, Labour lead of four points (ComRes-Populus-Opinium-YouGov)
TODAY'S POLLS:
YouGov: Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 8%, Ukip 15%
TWEETS & TWITS
How did it come to this?
@wallaceme: Gary Barlow, there, demonstrating how to reignite a story that most people had forgotten about.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Mary Riddell - Cameron's anti-terror curbs won't scare the wolf at his door
John Curtice - What will it take to persuade Scots to say no?

Dan Hodges - The future may belong to the Left after all
Best of the Rest

Rafael Behr - Election 2015 is a race neither Labour nor the Tories are fit to win (Guardian)

Stephen McGinty - On the road with Jim Murphy (Scotsman)
Alice Thomson - Wake up, unionists. You really could lose this (Times)
AGENDA
0830 LONDON: Ministers from Nato member states discuss challenges to the Atlantic Alliance ahead of the Nato summit, including speech by Defence Secretary Michael Fallon at 1000.
0930 LONDON: Home Secretary Theresa May speech on policing reform.
0930 EDINBURGH: Yes and No campaigns to take part in charity penalty shoot-out. Members of Better Together and Yes Scotland will hold a penalty shootout for the Gordon's Fightback motor neurone disease charity.
1030 ROTHERHAM: Meeting of Rotherham council's cabinet to discuss response to child abuse report.
1430 LONDON: Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers gives evidence to Commons Northern Ireland Committee on on-the-runs.

Failing to plan; planning to fail..

"Splitting distance" bellows the Scottish Sun. ("McSqueaky Bum Time" is the some what more irreverent take on page 2 of the English edition) A new YouGov poll for the Sun has the lead for the Union cut to six points - down from 22 points just a month ago.  The numbers are: No 48% Yes 42%, Don't Knows 8%, or No 53% Yes 47% once the undecideds are excluded.
"Scotland puts Union on knife edge" is the Times' splash. "A reminder that the Union is in real danger," says James Forsyth.  And to think a fortnight ago, Yes Scotland was widely being written off as dead and buried after that first debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling. Yes, it's just one poll, and the usual health warnings apply. But the polls influence what people like me write, and - more importantly - they influence the mood of the campaigns, too. 
"Oh god, it's happening again," was the verdict of one Scottish parliamentarian last night.  For veterans of Scottish Labour's 2011 defeat it all feels horribly familiar. Movement in the betting markets is followed by a shift in the polls - the fear now is that, as happened in 2011, the campaign collapses into infighting. The difference this time is that the upper echelons of Better Together have been prepared for the polls to tighten from some time - that Alex Salmond would give them a fright is expected, and planned for.
Westminster, too, has long been braced for a tense final straight. That -as the FT reports - Westminster has no contingency plans in place in the event of a Yes vote makes London look rather more oblivious than they are. Downing Street has been reluctant to hand the Nationalists a PR victory by being seen to plan for the worst, but the PM has long expected that the last days of the campaign will be tight. For Ed Miliband's part, Labour are taking the campaign seriously enough that they pulled their organisers out of English marginals and into the battle for the Union some time ago. The hope now is that, by being better prepared, Better Together can prevent the referendum being another unexpected triumph for Mr Salmond.  

BOMB FIRST, ASK QUESTIONS LATER?
"UK ready to take fight to jihadists" is our splash. The PM told the House yesterday that he is willing to "act immediately" and inform the Commons later if national security is threatened. It looks like an mothballing of the constitutional precedent, set during the Blair years, that the House votes first and action comes after - or, as happened last year, not at all, although Nick Clegg has played down any suggestion that Parliament will be bounced into action. The chances of getting parliamentary approval for any prolonged action the region however, are slim, and will be further reduced by a poll in today's Indy. "Don't bomb Syria or Iraq" is the i's headline.  Just 35% of voters back strikes against Isil while 50% oppose action, the survey from Comres has found.  Meanwhile, Lord Richards, the former Chief of Defence Staff, told Sky News Tonight that neither the PM nor Barack Obama have "really grasped the enormity of the problem and the scale of the solution" posed by Islamic extremism. 
A CONTROL ORDER BY ANY OTHER NAME
The PM's announcement of beefed-up Tpims has been overshadowed by a Coalition row and legal difficulties, Patrick Wintour reports in the Guardian.   The re-introduction of relocation powers - effectively the restoration of control orders under a different brand - has run into difficulties. Measures that appeared to have secured approval from both Coalition partners now look to be rather more controversial, and, with the deadline for emergency motions not yet passed, I'm told that there are now firm plans to force the new Tpims to a vote at the conference floor of Liberal Democrat party conference. The PM has already had to shelve key proposals including the withdrawal of passports from British-born jihadis, in the face of legal objections - as Dominic Grieve noted in the House yesterday, as well as flouting international law, the proposals also run contrary to British common law. There is a growing appetite among Tory hawks for a cross-party deal with Labour in order to bypass what the Sun characterises today as "Lib Dem hand-wringing and skewed priorities". 
ALL YOU NEED IS GOVE
"If Osborne were to die tomorrow, many in Westminster would wonder what he meant by that." That's today's stand-out line from Janan Ganesh's expanded biography of George Osborne, serialised this week in the Times. The book carries further details of Michael Gove's expanded back-room role - as I've outlined before - and his increasing day-to-day importance to both the PM and Mr Osborne now that he is no longer on Whitehall's frontlines. And Sajid Javid is outed as the Chancellor's favourite protege.  
AET'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH
England's largest academy chain may give up control over some of its schools after being censured by Ofsted inspectors.  The Academies Enterprise Trust (AET) is considering whether some schools would do better with a smaller provider after claims that its rapid expansion left some schools struggling to cope. The inspection of the 12 academies in question does not give an accurate picture of the 77 schools under AET control, a spokesperson said. The affair will deepen the row over whether Ofsted should be able to inspect head office functions as well as individual schools within in academy chains. 
OAR'S WELL THAT END'S WELL?
Boris Johnson's plans for a new major airport in the Thames estuary will be buried by the Davies commission on infrastructure later today, Peter Dominiczak and Nathalie Thomas report. The Mayor's proxies say that the only think that Sir Howard Davies has sunk is his own commission. It's "politically impossible" to expand Heathrow, whatever government is in office, the Mayor's friends and advisers say. In other news, Chris Hope reports on the race to be the Conservative candidate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. As well as the Olympic oarsman James Cracknell, former Downing Street adviser Shaun Bailey is among the hopefuls. The field will be winnowed down to a shortlist of three or four on Friday. 
The Morning Briefing is written by Stephen Bush, who tweets as@stephenkb. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his cartoons on Instagram.
POLL OF POLLS

Poll of polls 26th August to 2nd September, Labour lead of four points (ComRes-Populus-Opinium-YouGov)
TODAY'S POLLS:

ComRes: Con 28% Lab 35% LD 9% Ukip 17%
Populus:  Con 32% Lab 36% LD 9% Ukip 15%
YouGov: Con 34%, Lab 35%, LD 7%, Ukip 14%
TWEETS & TWITS
Admirable sangfroid or remarkable complacency? 
@ConorPope: Tonight's #indyref poll reminds me of those tight polls in 2010. "With margin of error it could be neck and neck!" It wasn't. #GameOn
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Sally Chatterton - After what happened to Jennifer Lawrence, I'm relieved to be over 40
Con Coughlin - Putin's boots are on the ground - why not ours? 

Nick Glynn - Why stop and search has to be improved
Best of the Rest

Janan Ganesh - Cameron plays his part with polish but no passion (FT)

Rachel Sylvester - We need proper security, not political games (Times)
Steve Richards - For Eurosceptics, David Cameron is still the best bet(Independent)
AGENDA
0930 LONDON: Commons Education Committee takes evidence on extremism in schools.
0945 GLASGOW: Disabled people referendum hustings. Jackie Baillie MSP and Anne McGuire MP of Better Together debate with Patrick Harvie MSP and Elaine C Smith from Yes Scotland and answer questions from 380 disabled people.
1000 GUILDFORD: Councillor due in court charged with impersonating a barrister. Monika Juneja, 35, who sits on Guildford Borough Council, is charged with seven offences, including wilfully pretending to be a barrister contrary to the Legal Service Act 2007.
1100 FIFE: First Minister Alex Salmond visits Eden Mill's new distillery.
1245 LONDON: Nato Parliamentary Assembly conference on Wales Summit. 
1630 EDINBURGH: Green leader in England campaigns for Scottish independence. Natalie Bennett, who leads the Greens in England and Wales, will join Scottish co-convener Patrick Harvie ahead of the independence referendum. 
1800 LONDON: Emma Reynolds, Brian Ham and Rober Tinker in discussion for the Fabian Society. Alison Brooks, founder director of Alsion Brooks Architects, in the chair.