Betting the house..

The Conservatives have gone from throwing the kitchen sink to the family home at Mark Reckless in Rochester & Strood. A vote for Ukip could knock thousands of pounds off house prices, Tory strategists have said. (Roving reporter Matt Holehouse has the story from Rochester.) "The danger is if you vote Ukip, the value of your house will go down," says Charles Walker, the MP for Broxbourne. It's "absurd" reply Ukip spinners.

Who's right? It's well known that the BNP's local election victory in Barking & Dagenham saw property prices in that borough stagnate while values in the neighbouring areas surged. Polls consistently show that Nigel Farage is hugely popular with his own supporters but strongly disliked by most of his opponents - whether that's the latest Ashcroft or the ComRes survey that finds that Mr Farage is Sean Bean to his friends and Mr Bean to his enemies - - so it seems reasonable to expect there is a degree of social stigma attached to living in a Ukip seat. 

But that the attack has come so late in the campaign - "you can't fatten the pig on market day" as Lynton Crosby says - reveals the frustration at the heart of the Tory effort. The pledge of an In-Out referendum was meant to stop Ukip. It didn't. Mr Farage's revolt was meant to peak in the European elections and ebb away after Newark. It hasn't. Rochester & Strood was meant to be a firebreak. It won't be. 

It may be that, at the last hurdle, the question of who governs - David Cameron or Ed Miliband - brings Ukip voters back to the fold. But the Conservative nightmare scenario outlined in Janan Ganesh's column today - "a tectonic rupture and the emergence of a durable political movement" - cannot be ruled out.

BRINGING A BADLY-COSTED KNIFE TO A GUN FIGHT

Yvette Cooper will today accuse the Conservatives and Ukip being engaged in an "arms race of rhetoric" on immigration before pledging to introduce 1,000 extra border staff. (The irony appears to have escaped her.)  But Labour's plans to increase the number of border and immigration workers to 8,000 by imposing a visa waiver charge on tourists are already under fire, with Home Office sources telling Holly Watt that the Opposition's sums are "catastrophically wrong".  Charging for the electronic visa waiver scheme would fund just 59 new members of staff, analysis shows. "This announcement has unravelled completely," Theresa May says. 

A WEE PROBLEM 

A Survation poll for the Daily Record shows that Labour still has a mountain to climb in Scotland. The SNP are on 46% while Labour trails on 24% (the two Coalition parties are on 17% and 6% respectively). On a a uniform swing the SNP would take 52 seats, leaving Labour with just five MPs. It's a slight recovery from the horror polls immediately after Johann Lamont's acrimonious resignation, however. Even pessimistic Labour sources believe that the SNP's surge is not consistent throughout the country, meaning that Glasgow's MPs should be far more worried than Edinburgh's.  

WHITEHALL 2.0

David Cameron is "getting his excuses in early" with his warnings over red lights and slowdowns, Ed Miliband said in the House yesterday. In his sketch, Michael Deacon is confused by the PM's messaging - "Most of our people have never had it so good. Or bad." - while Jeremy Warner explains what's going wrong in the global economy here. Elsewhere, the Institute for Government's annual Whitehall Monitor is out today. Whitehall must raise its skills and the Civil Service must change how it operates in order to cope with the coming cuts in the next parliament. 

WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN

Almost a million crimes are disappearing from official figures every year as chief constables massage the figures to meet their targets, according to the police inspectorate, David Barrett reports. There is a "material risk of the victim and the community not receiving justice," Tom Winsor, the Chief Inspector says.

CAREFUL, DARLING

Alistair Darling issues a warning to pro-Europeans in the Guardian today. There is a "real risk the fight will be lost before it begins", Mr Darling says. The 2017 referendum will be held to the backdrop of continuing austerity and a possible recession as the Eurozone slips back into crisis. "Hope may well be in short supply," the former Chancellor warns. The case for staying within the EU needs to be made "with vigour", Mr Darling says.  "In Scotland it took a long time for the quiet majority to feel confident enough to speak out. It was almost left too late." 

FROM GRAD TO WORSE

The high level of monthly repayments caused by the hike in tuition fees to £9,000 means that thousands of middle-class professionals will be unable to secure mortgages while three-quarters of students will never pay off the debt at all, Graeme Paton reports. "Tuition fees: three quarters of students won't pay off debt" is the Indy's splash. "Student fees time bomb" is the i's take.

SEATS FOR THE BOYS

Ed Miliband has "seized control" of the selection process for Labour MPs, Sam Coates reports in the Times. The party's National Executive Committee has agreed that from today a special selection panel will decide what happens in plum seats. The panel decides which seats must field all-women shortlists in some seats and determines the selection of shortlists in others. The expectation among Labour insiders, I'm told, is that the panel will have fewer all-women selections than has been the case so far in the parliament, as many of Mr Miliband's allies with eyes on a seat are men.  

CLICK THIS LINK TO GET NOTHING DONE ALL DAY

Westminster ground to a halt yesterday after YouGov unveiled a new toy/handy polling gadget. The YouGov profiler allows you to find out what the shopping habits of David Cameron's fans are, or the favoured food of the supporters of Ed Miliband. Raziye Akkoc picks through some of her favourite examples here.

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 15% Green 6%  (Ashcroft-ICM-IpsosMori-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 11.11.2014-18.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

Ashcroft: Conservatives 29% Labour 30% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 16% Green 7%

Populus: Conservatives 35% Labour 36% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 11% Green 5%

YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15% Green 8%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@JoeTwyman: Q: What is @YouGov? (asks Russell Brand in latest video) A: We're the people you commissioned to run a survey for your book. #yourewelcome

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Jeremy Warner - Can Britain survive another European crash?
Philip Johnston - Ukip's rise reflects a growing willigness to complain

From elsewhere

Rachel Sylvester - Ministers take side in Tory culture clash (Times)
Janan Ganesh - Tories should call off the search for an anti-Ukip strategy (FT)

AGENDA

0930 LONDON: Inflation figures for October are published by the Office for National Statistics.
1045 LONDON: Yvette Cooper, shadow home secretary, will deliver a speech on immigration.
1100 HARROGATE: Home Secretary speech to the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners.
1420 EDINBURGH: First Minister Alex Salmond will make a resignation statement to the Scottish Parliament.
1445 LONDON: Immigration minister and transport chiefs before home affairs select committee.
1630 LONDON: Ofcom chief executive at Lords committee.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons

Deputy Prime Minister's Questions.
Attorney General Questions.
A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Apprenticeships (Child Benefit and Tax Credit Entitlement) (Research).
Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill - Report stage (Day 1).
A short debate on future of Fenton Town Hall Building, Stoke-on-Trent.
Westminster Hall
0930: Physical inactivity and public health.
1100: Service history of Corporal Stewart McLaughlin.
1430: Role of Germany and the UK in the EU.
1600: Investment in the armed forces.
1630: Housing market in London.
Lords
Questions.
Social Action, Responsibility and Heroism Bill - Committee of the whole House.

Orders and Regulations relating to the Marriage of Same Sex Couples (Conversion of Civil Partnership) Regulations 2014; Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013 (Consequential and Contrary Provisions and Scotland) and Marriage and Civil Partnership (Scotland) Act 2014 (Consequential Provisions) Order 2014; Consular Marriages and Marriages under Foreign Law (No. 2) Order 2014.

A warning light that never goes out..

David Cameron takes to the pages of the Guardian this morning with a dire warning. "Red warning lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy," the PM warns. A possible third recession in the Eurozone, slow down in the emerging market economies that have driven global growth over the past few years, conflict in the Middle East, Russia's incursion into Ukraine and the Ebola epidemic are all "adding a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty". 

The hope in 2010 was that by now, Britain would be back in the black and that "the proceeds of growth"  could be widely shared. The Autumn Statement on the 3rd December would, in an ideal world, be dominated by tax cuts and sunlit uplands. 

The reality is rather different. The recovery has seen a boom in the number of low-income jobs, leaving the Treasury facing an ever-tighter pinch on revenues and an ever-larger in-work welfare bill. Labour claims today that the Chancellor will have to fork out £25 billion more than planned from the social security budget.

All in all, the mission of getting Britain back into the black by 2015 has suffered something of a setback. If there is to be a big outlay in December it will likely be to head off a winter crisis in the NHS. "Softening up" was the line on the Today programme: the PM is out today in order to lay the ground for a grim message from George Osborne. It also gets the national conversation back onto the economy, the Government's best territory and the PM's best hope of stopping Labour next May. But there's a bigger point here: most people expect a rather better time after the election than they had before it. The reality is that ain't going to happen. That's better news for Nigel Farage and his party than whatever happens in Rochester on Thursday.

YOU'LL WIN NOTHING WITH KIPS

Ukip's formerly shambolic campaign operation has transformed itself from "Dad's Army" to a "ruthlessly organised insurgency", according to Matt Goodwin, who probably knows more about Ukip than anyone. Two new recruits - tireless doorknocker Douglas Carswell and Chris Bruni-Lowe, co-founder of the People's Pledge, a pro-referendum campaign - are behind the transformation from the rudderless outfit that went down to Newark to a machine that, Ukip sources predict, could win in Rochester & Strood by as much as 15 points. Reporting from the constituency, Tom Rowley finds that the mood in the constituency is "not of revolt but general disgruntlement".

PHFITS AND STARTS

Bonuses tied to corporate takeovers could be banned under a Labour government, Chuka Umunna has suggested in an interview with the Times, as it incentivises advisors to complete deals "even if it might not be in a company's best interests", Mr Umunna argues. There needs to be "more grit in the machine" making takeovers more difficult to complete as "at the moment there is a takeover bus that ionce it has started it is very hard to stop". Pfizer's takeover bus is likely to remain in the garage however - the American giant will be able to make take over plucky British-Swedish minnow AstraZeneca on the 26th of November, but the company has announced a $11 billion share buyback programme and is believed to be targeting less politically fraught deals. 

TARTAN...TROTS?

A new Survation poll finds that the Scots are still in favour of the Union - just. It's 53% No and 47% for Yes once you strip out the undecideds. But the Scottish electorate's love affair with the SNP shows little sign of dying down. Nicola Sturgeon, who took office as leader of the SNP and First Minister, has laid out further conditionsfor supporting a Labour government in office next year: an abandonment of the deficit reduction and the end of Britain's nuclear deterrent. Labour sources believe that Ms Sturgeon's game is to make impossible demands of Labour in order to walk away from Coalition negotiations. "It's in her interest to have a Tory government in Westminster and a left-wing government in Holyrood," they explain. 

BLACK THURSDAY?

Britain will pledge £600 million to a UN "green bank" intended to help developing countries prepare for the impact of climate change. Peter Bone tells the Sun's Steve Hawkes it will boost Ukip in Thursday's vote - "Tories See Red At Cam's Green Gift" is their headline. It all adds up to a miserable few days in the House for the PM, with Labour seeking to re-open the European Arrest Warrant argument on Wednesday and a Conservative revolt over the Barnett formula on the Thursday. 

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE

Rowena Mason interviews Sadiq Khan - the head of Labour's anti-Green unit - as the Shadow Justice Secretary battles to prevent a Green surge that could put pay to Ed Miliband's hopes next May. It's all about broadcasting that Ed Miliband's outfit isn't the same as Tony Blair's, Mr Khan believes. But it's his comments about the next election - "squeaky bum time", "neck and neck"- that are widely reported. The phrase originates in the 2002-3 season, when an Arsenal team that had lead for long periods faltered at the last to a resurgent Manchester United. 

DIDN'T HE ALREADY DO THAT IN LOVE ACTUALLY?

Polling company ComRes turned casting consultancy for the Indy on Sunday and the Mirror this weekend. Rowan Atkinson is the runaway favourite to play both Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage among voters (27% and 21% respectively), while Hugh Grant is the preferred choice for the PM (18%) and his deputy (17%). Ukip supporters have a rather different view of their man than the public at large: they think that Sean Bean would be a better fit for that man Mr Farage.  

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 15% Green 6%  (Ashcroft-ICM-IpsosMori-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 07.11.2014-14.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

ComRes: Conservatives 30% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 19% Green 3%

Populus: Conservatives 33% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 13% Green 3%

YouGov: Conservatives 31%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 18% Green 5%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@jimw1: Re: Rochester by-election. As radical anti-Westminster ideas go not sure how far along the scale of daring voting for your sitting MP stands

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Con Coughlin - We need to focus on fighting Isil, rather than ourselves
Matthew Goodwin - Ukip's days of amateur campaigning are over

From elsewhere

Ian Birrell - Ukip feasts on anti-politics mood (i)
Jamie Reed - Why Vote Ukip: a study in paranoia (Progress)

AGENDA

1030 LONDON: Libel actions involving former Government chief whip Andrew Mitchell. Mr Mitchell is suing News Group Newspapers over a September 2012 article in The Sun about the "Plebgate" incident which concerned a verbal exchange at the gate in Downing Street between the MP and PC Toby Rowland. Mr Mitchell is himself being sued by PC Rowland in respect of statements he made from December 2012 onwards.
1345 LONDON: General Synod.
2235: Ed Miliband and the Telegraph's Allison Pearson among the guests on ITV's The Agenda.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons
Home Office Questions.
Childcare Payments Bill - report stage and third reading.
A short debate on mental health services and the homicide investigation report on the death of Christina Edkins.
Lords
Questions.

Modern Slavery Bill - Second reading. 

The abyss looks back also..

So how'd he do? Ed Miliband's comeback speech gets five gold stars from Tom Clark in the Guardian: "all but his most determined enemies will have been impressed". "Finally, Ed Miliband shows with a fighting speech that he has what it takes to be Prime Minister," the Mirror roars. 

The Indy's leader writers aren't so sold. "Lame to the point of satire," is their verdict. "The best we can say is it wasn't as bad as his party conference calamity," the Sun sighs. "Full of class war [and] quasi-Marxist rhetoric," is the Mail's take. "Mr Miliband's speech," Philip Collins writes in the Times, "contained nothing for anyone on middle income or above and there is no majority to be assembled in this country for a campaign aimed only at the bottom third of the income scale."

Forget Michael Foot, our leader says. Labour is "if anything in a worse position than it was 30 years ago". "It has no policies at at all, merely slogans....Ed Miliband was, as usual, good at identifying the country's problems but woeful at prescribing a cure."

What's the internal reaction? Privately, hopes for a Tory meltdown after the Rochester & Strood by-election is the real cause for optimism among Labour MPs, while others point to the astute recent hire of Ian Warren, a data guru who, they hope, will allow Labour to grit out a parliamentary victory even if the party finishes second in the popular vote. 

Much will hinge on Ed Miliband not repeating his trick of roaring like a lion before falling into a Bagpuss-style slumber for a few months. That Ed Balls is out today adding further detail to the party's plans on tax avoidance, promising not just payment but punitive fines for tax avoiders, shows that the Opposition is starting to get wise to the tactical mistakes of times past. Ignore the troubled substance - for all the policy flaws of the energy price freeze, Labour made hay by attacking, continually and relentlessly. The real test is not in yesterday's speech or today's papers but whether Labour is still keeping the pressure on in a month's time. 

HASTA LA VISTA, JIHADI

British jihadists who fight for Isil in Syria and Iraq will be barred from returning for at least two years, Steven Swinford reports. The PM is Down Under for the G20 Summit, and he will announce the plans later today. "Temporary exclusion orders" will put suspected fighters on a no-fly list for two years and require them to submit to strict conditions, including enhanced surveillance, on their return to British shores. The proposals may face a legal challenge from countries that may refuse to keep British-born jihadists within their borders. 

NICOLA STURGEON, QUEEN IN THE NORTH

The SNP are in Perth today for their conference, which will confirm Nicola Sturgeon as Alex Salmond's successor as party leader and First Minister. That man Mr Salmond will tell party members not to accept defeat in the independence referendum as decisive. "They thought it was all over, it isn't now," he will quip. In the Guardian, Martin Kettle profiles the Blair-Brown style deal between Mr Salmond and Ms Sturgeon a decade ago. On the Today programme this morning, Ms Sturgeon has said that "the wish and will" of the Scottish people will decide whether the referendum debate has finished, and has suggested that an EU exit could trigger a referendum. It would be "democratically indefensible" for Scotland to be taken out of the European Union "against our will", Ms Sturgeon says. 

EVERYONE LOVES ED

"We wouldn't put the Tories into government," Nicola Sturgeon said on the Today programme, while, as part of an interview with Mure Dickie in the FT, Alex Salmond raises the possibility of a confidence and supply deal with the Labour Party after the next election. It's all part of the SNP's attempts to defuse Scottish Labour's predicted "vote SNP, get Cameron" line next May. 

UNDERSTAND A LITTLE MORE, CONDEMN A LITTLE LESS

The chances of a British exit from the EU are "50-50", Sir John Major said in a speech in Berlin last night. "British frustration is no game," Sir John told the audience, saying that there must be real concessions if the referendum is to be won. Chris Hope has the storyand the full speech is here. 

THE RAGE OF LEN

Len McCluskey, the General Secretary of Unite, has rounded on Jim Murphy in an article for LabourList. He is "the candidate of a reheated Blairism", Mr McCluskey says. His "victory would be all the SNP's Christmases come at once", Mr McCluskey continues, a sentence of "political death" for Scottish Labour. There's "nothing personal" to his objections, Mr McCluskey tells the FT. Mr Murphy currently leads Mr McCluskey's preferred candidate, Neil Findlay, among constituency nominations by 20 to 11. 

CLEGG VS HAMMOND

Philip Hammond is "misguided" in his comments on the commitment to enshrine the 0.7% spending target in GDP, say 15 development bigwigs, who have made their feelings known in a letter to the Telegraph. The signatories, who include the CEOs of Christian Aid and Cafod, say that it would move the debate from "how much is spent" to "how it is spent". Nick Clegg says that the Foreign Secretary's comments are "bizarre". "It was a Conservative party manifesto commitment," Mr Clegg told LBC listeners. 

£3,350 A POP

The badger cull cost the taxpayer £3,350 for every badger killed, Ben Riley-Smith reports. Just 1,879 badgers were culled. The cost of bovine TB to Britain is estimated at around £500 million. 

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

Conservatives 31% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% Green 6%  (Ashcroft-ICM-IpsosMori-Opinium-Populus-Survation-YouGov, 07.11.2014-14.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 15% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@WillardFoxton: This is what, the 15th Miliband relaunch? Apollo project got to the moon with eleven.

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Miliband sounds good but lack substance and show 
Cathy Newman - Keep going, Dame Judi, you're an inspiration 

From elsewhere

Philip Collins - Labour's had all the luck, but it's going to lose (Times)
Tim Montgomerie - 10 Reasons Why I Won't Be Joining Ukip (ConHome)

AGENDA

1900: Children In Need.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Recess. 

Win some, lose some..

European matters dominate the papers today but it makes rather more congenial reading for the PM than yesterday. "EU benefit tourists face being sent home" is our splash. "The End For Benefit Tourism" cheers the Mirror. "Migrants face crackdown on benefits" is the i's take. 

The German government has won its case in the European Court of Justice to deny a Romanian immigrant access to non-contributory benefits as well as those benefits which are only paid to people who have paid into the tax system, in a boost for David Cameron's reform agenda. If the PM does pull it off in May he'll face a task just as difficult, of securing a new deal between Britain and the UK. 

Elsewhere, however, is an enduring reminder of the ability of European intrigue to frustrate the PM. Lord Ashcroft's poll of Rochester & Strood sees the same pattern we've seen elsewhere, of Conservative defeat and Ukip victory. (The numbers, in case you haven't seen them, are Ukip 44% Conservatives 32% and Labour 17%) Chris Hope and Ben Riley-Smith report that senior Tory backbenchers want a face-to-face apology for the farce on Monday. 

The good news for the PM is that the mini-recess will hopefully cool tempers, while the defeat in Rochester is now priced in, while we've been reminded that much of his agenda for EU reform has willing allies on the Continent. (The ongoing row over Jean-Claude Juncker's links to Luxembourgeois tax havens has also raised the opinion of the PM's judgement in some corners of Europe) As Rafael Behr notes in the Guardian this morning, we know now that "Labour's capacity to cause trouble for the Prime Minister has become wholly contingent on the Tories' willingness to destabilise their own leader". The bad news for the PM is that willingness can never be entirely discounted. 

LAMMY'S WHAMMY

Mehdi Hasan sits down with London Mayoral hopeful David Lammy in the Huffington Post. He talks about a desire to give something back to his city - "most or all that I've been given has been given to me from London: London teachers, youth workers, what London gave my parents when they arrived here" - and the rise of the likes of Nigel Farage, Russell Brand and the SNP. It's his verdict on the next election that will raise eyebrows: his view at the last election was that we are "in for a decade of either minority or coalition government. There's very little that's shifted since then." As for Team Ed, they have "a lot to do between now and the general election. A lot to do!". Elsewhere, Democratic Audit's Lewis Baston has a bleak view of Labour's prospects: "an unworkable, small majority and a nightmarishly hard slog in the years ahead. And that, regrettably, is the relatively optimistic scenario."

COME FLY WITH ME. EVENTUALLY. 

Airlines and business could start to "marginalise" Britain within five years if the next Government continues to duck decisions on where to build a new runway, the UK's airports tsar, Sir Howard Davies, has warned. Gatwick would be the cheapest option at just £9.3 billion compared to £18.6 billion, according to Sir Howard's estimates. Heathrow is expected to deliver a bigger boost to the UK economy, however. Jim Pickard reports in the FT that the Conservatives are contemplating a U-turn on their opposition to a third runway at Heathrow. The politics are tricky, as expansion to Heathrow is bitterly opposed in the constituencies of Philip Hammond, Justine Greening, Theresa May and Vince Cable. 

ABUSE "NOT PROVEN"

The Wanless review into the Home Office's handling of child abuse allegations in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s has found that it is "not possible" to ascertain whether or not there was a cover-up, David Barrett reports. The search is still on for a replacement to Fiona Woolf at the head of the ongoing inquiry into child sexual abuse. 

IF I HAD A LITTLE MONEY

The NHS requires an emergency injection of £1.5 billion in next month's Autumn Statement, Norman Lamb, the Liberal Democrat health minister, warns. Demographic pressures, institutional change and the changing of the seasons are all putting the Health Service under greater pressure, and it "can't afford to wait" until after the election, Mr Lamb says. It's "the first we have heard of it", sources close to the Health Secretary says. It will almost certainly trigger the start of increasingly public negotiations about the scope of the Autumn Statement in the coming weeks. Chris Hope has the story. 

CUT IT OUT

Just two in five voters now believe that further fiscal retrenchment will be needed in the five years after the election, according to a Populus poll for the FT, while just a third of respondents accept that any government will have to implement savings that have a direct impact on people. How Labour manages the deficit and reduces the size of the welfare bill were among the topics when I interviewed Rachel Reeves at a Progress event yesterday, the audio of which is available here. 

JEAN-FLAWED JUNCKER

Jean-Claude Juncker's position as President of the European Commission will be debated by MEPs today, Bruno Waterfield reports. There is growing concern that M Juncker's position atop the Commission, which regulates competition within the EU, creates a conflict of interest due to his former role as Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Luxembourg, while he is under continuing pressure to explain his role in the scandal over the Grand Duchy's tax arrangements. 

THE BARNETT BLUNDER

The Barnett formula may have resulted in England and Wales bearing a greater share of the cuts than Scotland and Northern Ireland according to an IFS report. A mistake in the calculation of the value of devolving business rates has resulted in a £600 million benefit for Scotland and a £200 million benefit for Northern Ireland since the Coalition took office. 

SHAMELESS SELF-PROMOTION

How Labour manages the deficit and gets the welfare bill down were among the topics as I interviewed Rachel Reeves in Westminster last night as part of Progress' "In Conversation" series. You can listen to the audio here, my colleague Mary Riddell with Ed Balls here, and David Aaronovitch with Tristram Hunt here. 

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?POLL OF POLLS

Conservatives 31% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 16% Green 5%  (Ashcroft-ICM-Opinium-Populus-Survation-YouGov, 05.11.2014-12.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@BDStanley: Misspelling 'Gandhi' seems to be a prerequisite to citing him inappropriately in support of your argument.

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

James Kirkup - Ukip's success in Rochester won't surprise the Tories. But it should terrify them 
Mary Riddell -Labour agitators bear the stink of failure, not Ed Miliband 

From elsewhere

Rafael Behr - Most Tories now expect a party schism over Europe (Guardian)

Alice Thomson - We all profit if beauty comes before pylons (Times)

AGENDA

0930: Latest unemployment figures published by Office for National Statistics. 
1030 LONDON: Bank of England publishes its quarterly forecasts on growth and inflation. Followed by Q&A with governor Mark Carney.  
1035 MANCHESTER: Energy Secretary Ed Davey speech to Renewable UK conference. 
1800 LONDON: Is social media changing elections? Elizabeth Linder, Ryan Shorthouse, Richard Angell, Fran O'Leary and Michael Sani discuss the impact of social media on the next election at Demos. 

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Recess. 

Careless hands..

 The Government managed to turn victory into disaster last night with what James Kirkup dubs "the first postmodern vote in Commons history". The House was expected to vote on the European Arrest Warrant, with a rebellion around the 30 to 40 mark. Theresa May had attracted plaudits for a charm offensive that whittled down the planned rebellion from a possible 100 to a die-hard core. 

Instead, MPs found themselves voting on a secondary piece of legislation, known as a statutory instrument, covering only 10 of the 15 measures, not including the Warrant. As Ann Treneman puts in it in the Times: "It was about a clutch of regulations but not the one thing that everyone wanted to talk about, rebel over, shout out loud about". 

No matter, the Home Secretary announced. The Government would treat the vote as a vote on the treaty. Nuh-uh, replied John Bercow (I paraphrase). Then things went to pot. The Opposition refused to back the Government's motion to extend the debate to 10pm and then, Yvette Cooper tried to delay the vote for a day in order to have all 35 measures debated before the House. After a last-minute scramble by Government whips and a cross-town dash by the PM from a dinner at Mansion House, the Opposition's motion was defeated by a majority of 43, allowing the final vote to go through comfortably by 464 votes to 38. (Confused? Steven Swinford has a handy explainer of the mess) And we haven't heard the last of it: Labour will force a vote on the 19th of November, right before the Rochester by-election. All in all, a bad day at the office for the Government. 

"Chaos in House over EU Arrest Warrant" is our take. "MPs fury as May ducks vote on Europe" is the i's splash. That dreaded C-word again on the frontpage of the Times: "Chaos as rebels take Cameron to the brink".  "A dispiriting spectacle" is our leader's verdict. "With Labour on the ropes, the Tories contrived to detonate a bomb under their own record for competence," the Sun thunders in its leader. 

Who's to blame? It's a tricky question: fingers are being pointed in every direction. It's the Home Office's fault for promising a vote. It's William Hague's fault for being "too clever by half" with the motion before the House. It's Michael Gove and his deputy Greg Hands who are to blame for losing control. It's the Speaker who did the Government over. Who's the winner? That's an easier one: Nigel Farage. 

FORWARD MARCH OF LABOUR PLOTTERS HALTED

Alan Johnson has ruled out standing as a candidate for the leadership of the Labour Party, not now, not ever, in an article for the Guardian. "I have never stood for the leadership of my party, and for the avoidance of doubt, regardless of the circumstances, I never will," the former Home Secretary writes. It leaves Labour's discontents without a clear alternative and probably wraps it up for the rebels. The Labour leader will seek to regroup with a major speech on Thursday.  

TAXI FOR JEAN-CLAUDE

Jean-Claude Juncker is facing growing calls to resign as President of the European Commission, Georgia Graham reports. It comes as M Juncker faces allegations that, as Prime Minister, he presided over potentially illegal tax breaks for multinational companies operating in Luxembourg. Margaret Hodge says that the President must "come clean" about the affair. “How can we know he’s working in the interest of Europe when as prime minister in Luxembourg he has exploited populations in every European country and elsewhere for decades?" Ms Hodge asked. 

THE CUTS TO COME

"Whitehall told to find hit list for £30bn cuts" is the Guardian's splash. The Treasury has ordered civil servants to identify an extra £25-30 billion worth of cuts for the year after the general election. Elsewhere, Jim Pickard reports in the FT that local authorities have set aside £2.3 billion in reserves in expectation of further cuts to councils. That Britain's route back to the black is only half-finished is  "an open wound", Jeremy Warner says in his column today, and, with the picture in the Continent getting worse, there could be worse to come for the public finances. 

WHAT DO YOU DO WITH A BA IN ENGLISH?

Pupils who focus exclusively on the arts and humanities risk restricting their future career paths, Nicky Morgan warned. Academic all-rounders have tended to do arts subjects as they are seen as more useful for "all kinds of jobs", Ms Morgan said, but "this couldn't be further from the truth". Figures published last year showed an 80% increase in the number of students taking degrees in humanities, business, creative arts or design between 2002 and 2012, Graeme Paton reports. 

THE LOW PAY TRAP

Just one in four low earners has managed to escape permanently from low-paid work in the last decade, Andy Grice reports in the Indy.  in according to a new study published by the Resolution Foundation today. The report has been written for the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, and will be unveiled by the Commission's chief, Alan Milburn at an event this evening. 

ASBOS IN AMBRIDGE

Retiring Labour heavyweight David Blunkett is losing patience with The Archers, Hannah Furness reports. Melodramatic storylines and the disappearance of key characters are undermining the long-running show, Mr Blunkett, who first started listening to the programme on his mother's knee, says. "[Producers of] Coronation Street and EastEnders must be rubbing their hands," the former Home Secretary writes in the Radio Times.

HOUSEKEEPING

There was a flurry of polls over the weekend, one of which I added twice yesterday morning, and another not at all. This led to both the Labour and the Tory share being higher than they should have been (Labour to 33.2% and the Tories to 33.8%). That put the Conservatives ahead in the rolling poll.  I am really sorry. I've tweaked the way I input new polls to prevent it happening again.

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

POLL OF POLLS

Conservatives 31% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% Green 5%  (Ashcroft-ICM-Opinium-Populus-Survation-YouGov, 04.11.2014-11.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

Ashcroft: Conservatives 30% Labour 29% Liberal Democrat 10% Ukip 16% Green 7%

ICM: Conservatives 31% Labour 32% Liberal Democrat 11% Ukip 14% Green 6%
Populus: Conservatives 34% Labour 36% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 13% Green 3%YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Ukip 17% Green 6%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@BathAlex: Whatever your political stance, you have to want the party in government to at least be able to run a government.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
James Kirkup - Ukip's northward march isn't just a Labour problemPhil Johnston - The Ukip bandwagon rolls on in Rochester
Dan Hodges - Labour and Ed Miliband are going down together

From elsewhere

Rachel Sylvester - Labour has no clue how to solve its Ed problem (Times)

Steve Richards - Miliband must recover the spirit of 2010 (Independent)

Janan Ganesh - The Bank of Miliband is flunking its stress test  (FT)

AGENDA

0930: Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) releases its lending trends figures for September. CML 020 7438 8923.

0945 LONDON: Justine Greening will appear before the International Development committee to discuss Ebola.
1030 LONDON: Final poppy to be planted at the Tower of London to mark Armistice Day. The final ceramic poppy will be planted in the moat of the Tower of London forming the culmination of the art installation Blood Swept Lands and Seas of Red.
1400 LONDON: The Northern Ireland Affairs committee to take evidence on "on-the-runs".
1445 LONDON: Metropolitan Police commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe gives evidence to Commons Home Affairs Committee on Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act (Ripa).
1730 LONDON: Resolution Foundation launches report on low pay, with speech by Alan Miliburn.
1830 LONDON: Rachel Reeves at Progress "in conversation" event. The shadow work and pensions secretary will be in conversation with Stephen Bush of the Daily Telegraph.
2030 LONDON: Nick Clegg speech to Chambers of Commerce/Asian Business Association. 

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons
Justice Questions.
A Ten Minute Rule Motion: National Defence Medal.
National Insurance Contributions Bill - Report stage and third reading.
A backbench business debate on the medium-term financial plan for the House of Commons and draft estimates for 2015/16.
A short debate on improving rail services to the Portsmouth Harbour area.

Westminster Hall
1430: Acorn Finance Mortgages.
1600: Improvements to the Great Eastern Main Line.
1630: Effect of welfare reform in the Welsh Valleys.

Lords
Questions.
Wales Bill - Report stage.