Keep your Ed..

Labour are seeking to get back on the front foot after a disastrous few days. The heavyweight will be rolled out in support of Ed Miliband while the man himself will attempt to put the pressure back on the PM with a speech to the CBI stressing the dangers of an In-Out referendum - "Big Guns Aim For Ed Rebels" is the Mirror's take.

One big gun, that man Chuka Umunna - who, the Mail helpfully reminds us this morning, would double the Labour lead according to Survation - was on Today this morning flying the flag for Mr Miliband. The Leader of the Opposition is seen as on people's side, and Labour is "within touching distance" of victory next May, Mr Umunna says. "a serious prospect" for government after a heavy defeat. 

The risk of this approach is that it can create more bad headlines than good ones. Lucy Powell's "put up or shut up" message to the dissidents on Pienaar's Politics provides such an example. "Labour admits Miliband crisis may cost it election" is our take. "Close Miliband ally admits Labour leader is battling to convince voters" is the i's, "Miliband has lost public confidence, aide admits" says the Times. 

The reality is that the danger to Mr Miliband - as much as it ever existed - has passed. Without a candidate or any real unity between the conspirators, the coup was never going to get very far, while any ambitious frontbenchers have been reminded of the grassroots' dislike of division, and the likely costs to their own careers. (One wavering MP logged into Facebook to find LabourList's call for unityall over their timeline - which dampened their ardour somewhat.) 

Just one question remains. A traumatic fortnight still lies ahead for the Conservative Party - rebellion over the European Arrest Warrant tonight and heavy defeat in Rochester on Thursday week - but there's a sense in that party that they will hit rock bottom on the 20th with plenty of time to turn it around. Mr Umunna was able to describe Labour as "within touching distance" of power this morning, a "serious prospect" for government. It's worth remembering that even the narrow Tory lead - 34% to 33% - in our poll of polls would likely still put Mr Miliband in Downing Street. But if Labour's position gets worse, further outbreaks from nervous backbenchers could end up with Ms Powell's "worst of all worlds": a wounded leader, firmly in place, heading towards defeat. 

A ROAD RUNS THROUGH IT

The three party leaders will set out their case to the CBI today, with the PM pledging "the biggest, boldest and most far-reaching improvement programme" in 40 years to Britain's roads, Peter Dominczak reports for 40 years, Peter Dominiczak reports. The Chancellor will announce plans for improvements to the A303 to the South West, the A1 north of Newcastle to Scotland, the A1 Newcastle-Gateshead western bypass, the Trans-Pennine roads in the north of England, and the A27 road in the Autumn Statement on December 3rd. It's a "pre-election con trick," thunders attack dog turned Shadow Transport Secretary Michael Dugher, the announcement "includes no additional money and people won't fall for it."

AN OFFER EU CAN'T REFUSE?

Ed Miliband will put the European Union at the heart of his appeal to the CBI,  pledging to "never risk your businesses...by playing political games with our membership of the EU", Nick Watt and Vikram Dodd report in the Guardian. The speech will attempt to knit together Labour's anti-referendum message with Mr Miliband's plans to reform capitalism - he will say that only increasing wages and living standards will stem the tide of anti-EU and anti-immigrant sentiment. 

AUSTERITY FOREVER?

"Osborne faces doubling austerity cuts to £48bn a year to hit targets"is the FT's splash. According to the FT's analysis, the Chancellor will have to cut deeper into budgets of the army, the police and the courts as less than half of the cuts have been made while the job-rich, earnings-poor recovery is hitting tax revenues. It comes as General Sir Nick Houghton promised to "fix my bayonet and fight to the last" against further reductions in the number of British soldiers, Ben Riley-Smith reports. Speaking on the Marr Show, Sir Nick suggested that the PM is privately opposed to further Army redundancies. 

MANSION TAX: "THE END OF CIVILISATION", EXPERTS PREDICT

Labour's planned mansion tax will "have a serious knock-on effect" for charities, Labour peer and geneticist Lord Winston warns. The ability to defer the tax until after death for those earning under £40,000 will make people reluctant to leave legacies to charities - a key way that many health charities raise funds, Michael Savage explains in the Times. 

GORDON'S FIGHTBACK

Gordon Aikman, the Director of Research at Better Together, who has Motor Neurone Disease, is the subject of Owen Jones' column in the Guardian today. You can read Olivia Goldhill's interview with Mr Aikman here, and donate to MND research here. 

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

POLL OF POLLS

Conservatives 34% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (Ashcroft-Opinium-Populus-Survation-YouGov, 03.11.2014-10.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

Opinium: Conservatives 29% Labour 32% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 19%

Populus: Conservatives 33% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 14%

Survation: Conservatives 29%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Ukip 23%

YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 16% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@Kennyf1283: Alexis Sanchez must feel like David Axelrod does in Labour Party strategy meetings.

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Boris Johnson - Ditching Miliband won't alter socialism's irrevelance 

Iain Martin - Labour has mised a key lesson: put in the work in opposition, or get found out

From elsewhere

Ian Birrell - Ed Miliband has forgotten the first rule of opposition(Independent)

Kevin Maguire - Now's no time for party to lose its Ed (Mirror)

AGENDA

0900: Nigel Farage phone-in on LBC. 

1315 EDINBURGH: Scottish Secretary visits various research projects.

1615 LONDON: The Chief Inspector of Prisons will appear before the Commons Justice select committee.

1630 LONDON: Dame Julie Mellor, Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman will appear before the public administration committee.

2235: George Osborne appears on ITV's The Agenda.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons

Communities and Local Government Questions.

A motion to approve the Draft Criminal Justice and Data Protection (Protocol No. 36) Regulations.

A short debate on the death of David Efemena.

Lords

Introduction of Baroness Janke.

Questions.

Criminal Justice and Courts Bill - Third reading.

Infrastructure Bill [HL] - Report stage (Day 3).

Things can only get better..

 Westminster - and today's papers - are awash with rumours of plots. "Back me: Miliband's plea to plotters" is our splash."Miliband fights for his political life" is the Indy's take. "Miliband bid to disarm his party critics" is the Guardian's line. "Miliband fights off Labour coup" says the i. "Bonfire Night Plot To Oust Ed" roars the Mail. "Secret plan for end of Miliband" is the Times' take.

The reality is that no-one really knows what is going on. "Everyone is angry - not sure if anyone's organised," one MP told me last night. If there is an organised coup of any kind underway it will be an alliance decided by region and generation rather than faction - MPs facing a Ukip in the Midlands and North, Scottish parliamentarians spooked by the Scottish surge, and members of the 2005 intake that feels largely bypassed in favour of "the Shinies" aka the 2010 generation. (See, for instance, Ian Austin, one of two MPs named in Westminster last night as having called for Ed Miliband to go, faces the risk of losing his Dudley seat and is one of the 2005ers who is going nowhere under the current leadership, while the Mail reports that the regular gathering of the party's North-West MPs turned into a bloodletting session.) 
But whether there's any real organisation - one source last night described many of the complainers as "lazy f----rs with big majorities in the North...they can moan but they can't pull their sleeves up" - or not, how much trouble is Ed Miliband in? The reality is that it's very difficult to displace a Labour leader and that is still the case today, absent a ruthlessly well-organised and unassailable frontrunner, and there isn't one. (Matt Holehouse profiles the runners and riders here.) 

Talk of a deal between Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper in the Times has been furiously denied by both camps. As the two are not politically close and are of similar age (Mr Burnham is 44, Ms Cooper 45) a deal, whether now or in the future, looks unlikely, perhaps impossible. Most importantly, the 2010 generation, the closest thing that Mr Miliband has to a Praetorian guard, remain largely on side. 
Labour's current position was best expressed by the Fabian Society's Andy Harrop on the World at One yesterday. They know that Mr Miliband is a "hindrance" at the next election. They know that their best hope of taking office is still Nigel Farage. But they also feel that there is "no one else to do the job", for one reason or another.

CHEQUE PLEASEDavid Cameron warned European leaders in Helsinki - over a meal of reindeer, Sam Coates reveals in the Times - yesterday that that the £1.7 billion bill is driving Britain towards the exit. George Osborne will be told today that Brussels will not negotiate on the size of the bill, and the PM is likely to turn down the offer to pay the bill in interest-free installments, Peter Dominiczak reports from Helsinki. Ken Clarke helpfully waded into the fray on Today, pointing out that Britain would never accept that it should pay more were the boot on the other foot. Ed Balls and Douglas Alexander have called on the Government to do more to build allies on the Continent - while preparing a brief to take the Commission to the European Court of Justice, if need be, the two men argue in the Guardian.
NHS FACES "UNSUSTAINABLE" LOSSES
Hospital trusts are forecasting a £500 million pound loss this year, according to the National Audit Office, with "overambitious planning assumptions" on the part of the Government and a reorganisation that commissioners and providers feel is "fragmented, particularly regionally" Jason Beattie reports in the Mirror.
HERE IS A CART. WOULD YOU LIKE A HORSE? 
Senior Liberal Democrats are discussing asking for complete control over three departments if they enter into a new coalition after the next election, Nigel Morris reports in the Indy. Transport, BIS and DECC are the mooted departments, with another Liberal Democrat operating out of the Cabinet Office. The Liberal expectation is that coalition talks could take longer next time. "We won't have the bond markets screaming for a deal [next time]," one senior Liberal told me, which they believe, will give them a better hand in negotiations. Elsewhere, there is a feeling that by having MPs across each department the party became subsumed into the Conservative agenda. GRAMMAR SCHOOLS
Theresa May has backed the possibility of a new grammar school in her Maidenhead constituency, saying that she will support a local study into opening a "satellite" grammar school joined to an existing grammar school in a nearby borough, the Times reports. It's unlikely to signal an embrace for grammar schools by the DfE at least in the short term, however.
FROM THE GOING DOWN OF THE SUN
The PM has added his support to the campaign to preserve the poppy memorial outside the Tower of London past the 11th of November so that more people can visit it. If you can't make it, a timelapse video of the installation from dawn to dusk can be viewed here.

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work isavailable here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 16% (Ashcroft-Populus-Survation-YouGov, 31.10.2014-07.11.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
Survation: Conservatives 27%, Labour 31%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Ukip 24%
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 15% Green 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@ConorPope: People wondering why Miliband has stuck to his buses speech: buses are like anonymous briefings. Wait ages for one then two come at once.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Joe Haines - The party's big beasts must act to remove Miliband now
Sophy Ridge - The painful truth about the next generation of MPs
From elsewhere

Philip Collins - Yes he could. Obama is a truly great president (Times)Niki Adams - Listen to sex workers; we can explain what decriminalisation would mean (Guardian)
AGENDA
0900: Nigel Farage phone-in on LBC.
1030 LONDON: London Mayor Boris Johnson to attend the Greater London Authority Annual Service of Remembrance for London's war dead.
1100 LONDON: CBI launches report Better Off Britain, setting out businesses' views on how to tackle the living standards challenge.
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
Commons
Health and Social Care (Safety and Quality) Bill - Second reading.
Off-patent Drugs Bill - Second reading.
School Admissions Bill - Second reading.
Football Governance Bill - Second reading.
Road Traffic Regulation (Temporary Closure for Filming) Bill - Second reading.
Illegal Immigrants (Criminal Sanctions) Bill - Second reading (Day 2).
House of Lords (Maximum Membership) Bill - Second reading.
EU Membership (Audit of Costs and Benefits) Bill - Second reading.
Wild Animals in Circuses Bill - Second reading.
A short debate on services at Stafford Hospital.
Lords
Assisted Dying Bill (HL) - Committee of the whole House

With friends like these..

With friends like this, who needs enemies? Jason Cowley has a pop in at the Labour leader in this week's New Statesman: "Miliband is very much an old-style Hampstead socialist. He doesn't really understand the lower middle class or material aspiration. He doesn't understand Essex Man or Woman." As Steve Swinford explains, it comes as a particular blow as the Statesman was the only publication to endorse Mr Miliband during his bid for the leadership.

Elsewhere, the Times reports that David Axelrod, Labour's American hire, is growing disgruntled with the Miliband campaign, feeling that he is having little impact in the campaign and that his advice is going unheeded. Mr Axelrod denies that, of course. But his reported irritation mirrors the experience of other outside consultants, from the community organiser Arnie Graf to the party's advertising and digital agencies, who have been left frustrated by the Byzantine and indecisive nature of Labour's central command. There is uncertainty as to where the responsibilities of the highly-rated Greg Beales - Director of Strategy - end and the duties of the campaign chief, Spencer Livermore, begin. 

Added to that is a growing fear around what you might call "the Miliband problem". As James Forsyth reveals in the Spectator, there are growing fears that criticism of Mr Miliband "has gone from being a political thing to a cultural meme". The stunning decline in Labour's vote share - from 36% at the beginning of October to 33% today - is also causing jitters. Today's YouGov poll for the Sun finds that 44% of the general public expect the PM to be in office after the next election against just 31% for Mr Miliband - figures that I'd estimate would be repeated in most surveys of the parliamentary Labour party. 

Can Mr Miliband turn it around? I'm told that his confidence is still shot after his disastrous Conference speech. Say what you like about the Labour leader, he usually turns in a bravura performance on such occasions and his sub-par showing was a shock to the system. There is now hope within Team Ed that the newly-refreshed Shadow Cabinet and next week's speech on the economy could reset the narrative and reintroduce the Leader of the Opposition to the public. But it now looks likely that the big question isn't what the Labour leader does between now and May, but what happens to Nigel Farage and his party. 

The Best of Britain's Political Cartoons 2014 is published today by Scribe at £12.99. You can order it here.    

WON'T GET FUELED AGAIN
Danny Alexander will warn petrol companies and supermarkets that they must pass on the benefits of falling oil prices to customers "as quickly as possible". It would be an "outrage" if the suspicion that prices "go up like a rocket" and "drift down like a feather" is confirmed, Mr Alexander will say. The Serious Fraud Office is carrying out an investigation into claims that oil companies are ripping off drivers. Previous investigations exonerated the companies in question.   "Pass on oil price cuts to drivers, firms told" is our splash.
FOR HS2 THE BELL TOLLS?
Ed Miliband conducted a small but significant reshuffle in the wake of Jim Murphy's resignation from the Shadow Dfid brief. Mary Creagh has been moved from to Dfid, with Michael Dugher shifted from his role in the election campaign to Ms Creagh's previous role at Transport. Lucy Powell, who ran Mr Miliband's leadership campaign, takes Mr Dugher's old role with a beefed-up post in charge of the day-to-day running of the campaign, tasked with the all important management of the grid. Coupled with the promotion of Jon Trickett to the inner team, the elevation of Ms Powell marks a recall of of longstanding loyalists by the Labour leader. Moving Ms Creagh may have wider implications than just the composition of the Opposition frontbench. Mr Dugher is a close ally of Ed Balls, who has doubts about the costs of HS2, and it could signal a wider shift in Labour's policy towards the line.
THE PM'S PROBLEM
Jean-Claude Juncker rounded on national leaders who had queried the EU's recalculated charges, saying he is "not the type who trembles in front of prime ministers", Bruno Waterfield reports. including the PM. "I don't have a problem with David Cameron. He has a problem with the other prime ministers," Mr Juncker tittered. He may not be wholly incorrect, as the FT reports. The PM is travelling to meet his Nordic allies today, but even his like-minded colleagues have little stomach for changes to the principle of free movement.  
ROCHESTER? I BARELY KNOW 'ER!
A third of Conservative MPs are defying the PM's call to campaign in Rochester and Strood ahead of the Rochester & Strood by-election, Matt Holehouse reports. Michael Gove, the Chief Whip, is now "naming and shaming" the shirkers in a daily "Roll of Honour" email. Some say the tactic is "humiliating"and will backfire. But Michael Fabricant tells Lucy Fisher in the Times that "we should all show willing and be prepared to put ourselves out" for what will almost certainly be the last by-election of the parliament. 
GRAYLING'S JAILING FAILING?
Simon Hughes, the Liberal Democrat justice minister, has criticised the Conservatives for their "knee-jerk" policies on crime in an interview with Andy Grice in the Indy. Increasing the number of people in prison simply increases the number of criminals, Mr Hughes says, with 46% of all adults reoffending within a year of release. Reducing the prison population would not only reduce crime but also decrease the pressure on the Ministry of Justice's budget, Mr Hughes believes.
GADDAFI: NOT SO BAD, REALLY 
"Whatever people could say about Gaddafi, he didn't allow those boats to come across," Mark Reckless, Ukip's latest defector, quipped on the campaign trail in Rochester. 
POT VS KETTLE
More blue-on-blue briefing in today's papers. It's the Chief Whip who is in the PM's sights. Our cartoonist, Christian Adams, remembers a conversation with the PM:  "Why do you make me so fat? Look at Gove over there. He’s much fatter than I am and you draw him thin!” 
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 16% (Ashcroft-Populus-YouGov, 30.10.2014-06.11.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 15%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@CJTerry: "A leader in crisis, a party with nowhere to go" This line from Cameron could almost describe any of the parties...
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Dan Hodges - Chuka Umunna is the only politician with the guts to take on Ukip
James Kirkup - Shouting about economic benefits of immigration isn't the way to persuade people
Christian Adams - My cartoons have politicians spitting mad or coughing up
From elsewhere

David Aaronovitch - Immigration: it's about fear, not jobs (Times)
Chris Giles - Cameron is writing an unhappy ending to his story of economic success (FT) 
AGENDA
1000 LEEDS: Nick Clegg attends summit.
1100 LONDON: Karren Brady to take her seat in the House of Lords. 
1115 LONDON: Energy Secretary Ed Davey's annual energy statement.
1200 LONDON: Bank of England decision on interest rates and quantitative easing programme. 
2130 ABERDEEN: Danny Alexander speech. 
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
Commons
Energy and Climate Change Questions.
A statement on the future business of the House.
Two backbench business debates: i) UK foreign policy towards Iran; ii) Promotion of the living wage.
A short debate on Sainsbury's roadworks in Belgrave.
Westminster Hall
1330: US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement.
Lords
Introductions of Baroness Brady and Lord Callanan.
Questions.
A debate on women facing homelessness, domestic violence and social exclusion.
A short debate on the international response to Ebola.
A debate on how Government policies effect low income and vulnerable consumers.

A short debate on the European Union Committee Report on food waste

Dial S for schism..

The Times' Francis Elliott has a private letter from the Home Secretary warning that Sajid Javid's plans to improve mobile phone coverage by introducing "national roaming" will leave Britain more vulnerable to terrorist attacks. "May turns her fire on Tory rival" is the splash.

The policy is complex and the politics are fraught. Signal black spots are a personal bugbear of the PM - I'm told that when the PM travels, his aides will stop and note areas where he drops out of signal - and eradicating so-called "not-spots" has been Mr Javid's personal mission since he took over at the DCMS. His preferred solution is "national roaming", where phones will connect to whichever signal is strongest locally. 

It's the cause of much frustration among the phone companies. They point out that the burdens placed on their engineers - unlike the National Grid or the water companies, they face hurdles and costs to maintain and service their masts on private land - and planning restrictions are a far greater barrier to better phone coverage. Their fear is that Mr Javid's solution removes any incentive to switch providers, and, they argue, will actually increase signal black spots. (Privately, some feel that the industry as a whole is being punished for the shortcomings of Vodafone, the government's official provider.) Now the security services' objections are being aired in public too: their worry is that the switch between providers will make tracking suspicious individuals all the harder. 

Those are the policy headaches. Now for the politics. Downing Street was full of praise for Mrs May yesterday. She's "strong and effective", "a tough Home Secretary" in a "tough world" says the PM, while a Downing Street spokesman dismissed concerns that Mrs May is not a team player: "Crime is falling. Drug use is falling. Abu Qatada is back in Jordan." 

Privately, however, there is frustration that the Home Office operates as a seperate empire within the Government, that Mrs May frequently goes off the grid and that Downing Street is often left in the dark by her department. It feels similar to the seperate power base built by Gordon Brown - minus the toxic briefing. That second part is important: leaks from the Home Secretary are rare indeed. 

It may be that this is the exception that proves the rule. Equally it may be that the security interest, itself frustrated by Downing Street's determination to push on with plans for national roaming, is behind the leak. Regardless of who started it , it's yet another distraction from the economy and has the potential to kick off a round of infighting. (Sajid Javid's non-denial on the Today programme means we can be pretty close to certain that such a letter exists.) 

But the fears from within the Home Office, the security community and the phone companies all spring from the same source: that the PM has a tendency to ignore feedback he doesn't like. The hope in Downing Street is that improving mobile coverage could win back rural voters who are flirting with Ukip. A row within Whitehall and with big business could lose him more support that he gains. 

  

COMING OVER HERE, ADDING £20BN TO OUR GDP...
"£120bn cost of Labour's policy on immigration" is our splash. "UK gains £20bn from EU migrants" sayeth the Guardian. "EU migrants add £2obn to the economy in a decade" cheers the Indy.  A study running by two leading migration experts at UCL has thrown further light on the costs and benefits of migration. Migrants from within the EU contribute £20 billion to the British economy, with immigrants from the original 15 EU countries contributing 64% more to the Exchequer than they took out in services and migrants from eastern Europe added 12% more than they took out. But migrants from outside the EU cost £120bn over the study's period - 1995 to 2011 - and native Brits cost even more at £591 billion. The costs of both British citizens and immigrants from outside the EU is expected to have declined since 2011 as the economy left recession and recovered from the financial crisis.  
WHO RUNS DA WORLD? LEN
Len McCluskey has been accused of mounting a takeover of the Labour Party as it emerged that 109 of Labour's would-be MPs are members of Unite, Kevin Schofield reveals in the Sun. "Len is the real Labour leader" is their take. But Len McCluskey's takeover isn't all it's cracked up to be - remember that Unite is not only Britain's largest union but the official trade union for parliamentary staffers and the majority of Labour-friendly think-tanks. What it really reveals is the increasingly narrow social base of Labour's political class.
EU'VE GOT A LOT OF NERVE
The European Union has been accused of "breathtaking hypocrisy" for its continued demand that David Cameron hand over £1.7 billion despite its own auditors failing to give a clean bill of health to more than £100 billion of spending. The annual report of the European Court of Auditors, published today, found that £109 billion from a budget of £117 billion was "affected by material error". "It hard to swallow the British taxpayer being stung when the Brussels boondoggle squanders £5 billion in a year," says Dominic Raab. Bruno Waterfield and Peter Dominiczak have the story.
DO THE YELLOW SHUFFLE
Nick Clegg has conducted a minor reshuffle following the resignation of Norman Baker, sending Lynne Featherstone - who is highly rated by Mr Clegg and his team - back to the Home Office. (Steven Swinford has the details.) It's felt that Ms Featherstone succeeded well at the job of man-marking her senior minister, a task that eventually exhausted Mr Baker and proved too much for his predecessor at the Home Office, Jeremy Browne. 
NEW UKIP, NEW DANGER?
Craig Mackinlay, a former Ukip leader and now the Conservative candidate in Thanet South, where Nigel Farage will aim to become the MP next May, tells Rowena Mason in the Guardian that while he remains as firmly Eurosceptic as ever, Ukip's anti-immigration rhetoric is what keeps him from ever returning to the purple fold. “If you ever go to a Ukip gathering, it looks like, dare I say this, the detritus there that have been everywhere else," Mr Mackinlay says, "Sometimes the talk of many of them [about immigration] is none too pleasant."
ED'S GOT ISSUES
Big Issue founder John Bird has blasted Ed Miliband for giving money to a beggar in the Mail. debate about privacy". The problem isn't the size of his donation - photographs suggested that Mr Miliband gave only a few pennies, although his spinners say that he gave "a £1, maybe a £2" - but that he gave at all, Mr Bird says. Giving directly to beggars is an "act of cruelty rather than kindness" that leads beggars into crime and robs them of a sense of purpose. 
DO THE RIGHT THING
Brent Council will today become the first local authority to offer reduced rates to businesses that pay the living wage, Andy Grice reports in the Indy. Rachel Reeves throws her support behind the move in a column for the same paper. 
EVEN THE CATS CAN'T BE TRUSTED
Voters are likely to change their opinion even of simple creatures like a household cat, political scientists Phil Cowley and Rob Ford reveal, if they are told the owner is a politician from a party other than their own. 
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 16% (Ashcroft-Populus-YouGov, 29.10.2014-05.11.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 15%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@jhallwood: I'm unsure I could ever fall in love with a man who believed in a directly-elected Lords.
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Mary Riddell - Worcester Woman lives; and she could settle Ed Miliband's fault
Cathy Newman - Theresa May should buy Norman Baker a pint
Raziye Akkoc - Nigel Farage and Recepp Erdogan: not so different after all
From elsewhere

Deborah Orr - Will Cornick's 20-year sentence for the killing of Ann Maguire defies logic (Guardian)
John Rentoul - Norman Baker: a largely symbolic role with a largely symbolic ending  (Independent)
AGENDA
0930 LONDON: Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith gives evidence to the Commons Work and Pensions Committee. 
1200: Prime Minister's Questions. 
1415 LONDON: Home Office officials give evidence to the Commons Public Accounts Committee on the removal of foreign national offenders.
1430 LONDON: The service chiefs give evidence to the Commons Defence Committee on Future Force 2020
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons
International Development Questions. 
Prime Minister's Questions. 
A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Armed Forces (Prevention of Discrimination). 
Opposition Day Debates. 
A short debate on Ebola in West Africa. 
Westminster Hall
0930: Care workers. 
1100: Ofcom's supervision of mobile phone companies. 
1430: Situation in the dairy industry. 
1600: Newlands Park mobile home park site management and park home residents' rights. 
1630: Government policy on transient ischaemic attacks. 
Lords
Questions. 
Serious Crime Bill (HL) - Third reading. 
Infrastructure Bill (HL) - Report stage (Day 2). 

A regret motion relating to the Health and Social Care Act 2008 (Regulated Activities) Regulations 2014.  

Month of rain..

Tim Farron has just finished speaking on the Today program, and he appeared to blame Theresa May for Norman Baker's resignation, saying that "for the first three years, he served under three Conservative Secretaries". "What's changed?" he asked. It's "sensed around government" that the Home Secretary "behaves as if the Conservatives won the last election," Mr Farron said. The Coalition remains stable, however, he says, despite many disagreements, the partners "work in a collegiate fashion". He conceded that the Liberal Democrats face "a difficult election" in May.
Good morning. Has David Cameron found a way out of the £1.7bn bill from Brussels? The Times reports whispers from Italy - the current holders of the Council Presidency - that a deal may be struck on or before Friday's meeting of finance ministers. There's an understanding that the "unprecedented result" puts the PM in a sticky position.


What looks likely is that the government will be able to make the payment in installments without incurring a crippling rate of interest; some way short of the PM's words of defiance just a few weeks ago.

If a deal isn't reached, however Britain will be hit with hefty fines of close to £70 million a month next year, with Commission officials threatening to charge Britain an annual interest rate of 52% if the bill is not paid by the 1st of December. (Bruno Waterfield and Steven Swinford have the details.)

It all adds up to a month of misery for Mr Cameron; a large rebellion over the European Arrest Warrant - although, happily for Downing Street, the Sun sounds a note of support for that measure in its leader -defeat, very possibly by a large margin, in Rochester, and embarrassment in Brussels. The bigger problem is what it says about the larger picture and the battles to come over renegotiation after 2015.

In his column today, James Kirkup suggests that the PM may have misjudged his relationship with Angela Merkel, with possibly devastating consequences. His opponents scent blood, too. "He's reliant on a blackmail strategy which doesn't work and whose bluff has been called," Shadow Cabinet member and Miliband confidante Stewart Wood writes on LabourList today. He would, wouldn't he? The problem for the PM is that complaint is beginning to be voiced even in usually supportive circles.





CHILL OUT, MAN

Norman Baker has resigned from the Government, citing splits over drugs policy and a difficult working relationship with his Conservative colleagues in the Home Office, Alice Philipson reports. He's launched an attack on Theresa May in an exclusive interview with Nigel Morris in the Independent. Working as the lone Liberal Democrat in the department has been "like walking through mud", Mr Baker says. He's been treated as a "cuckoo in the nest" by Theresa May, and that the Home Office, unlike his previous berth at Transport, lacks the "goodwill" and "collegiate" discussion necessary to make Coalition work. In addition, it has squeezed the time he can spend with his family and on his music. Mr Baker's band, The Reform Club, is about to release its second album.

LET IT BEE

Liz Truss will today unveil a new strategy to save the nation's bees in a speech to Policy Exchange, Chris Hope reports. Gardeners will be encouraged to let their lawnmowers sleep peacefully in their sheds, letting their gardens become wilder, thus providing homes for bees and butterflies. Scientists warn that British bees are in serious decline, with 71 wild bee species under threat and more than 20 already extinct. The survival of bees is vital to food production, Ms Truss will say.

WORKING FOR NOTHING
Women will effectively "work for free" for the rest of the year - 57 days - due to the gender pay gap, Radhika Sanghani reports. Due to an increase in the size of the gap, women "work for nothing" for an extra three days in 2014. Labour is calling for legislation to require large companies to reveal the size of their gender pay gap.

O-PATZ OPINES

Owen Patterson will launch his new think tank, UK2020, today, and he's spoken exclusively to James Chapman at the Mail about his vision for Britain. On the To Do List: speedier increases to the 40 per cent threshold, which should now be over £75,000 if had risen in line with wages, cuts to stamp duty, capital gains and inheritance tax, scrapping entire government departments, potentially including Bis, Environment and Climate Change, as well as the DCMS.

#ISIL

Incoming director of GCHQ Robert Hannigan warns that social networks have become "the command and control networks of choice" for modern terrorists and criminals, and has called for a "new deal between democratic governments and the technology companies in the area of protecting our citizens" in a column for the FT, and has called for intelligence agencies - including GCHQ - to "enter the public debate about privacy". Steven Swinford has the story.

FALLING DOWN
The Palace of Westminster is in such a state of disrepair it could burn down for a second time, senior officials have warned. On one occasion, maintenance work caused an MP to miss a narrow vote in the House of Commons, Chris Hope writes.

"THEY ALL WANTED MORE MONEY"

Lord Barnett, who as Joel Barnett was responsible for devising the Barnett formula which determines how much money the four nations of the United Kingdom receive from the Treasury, has died. You can read his obituary here.

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

04.11.14

POLL OF POLLS

Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (Ashcroft-Populus-YouGov, 28.10.2014-04.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

Ashcroft: Conservatives 30%, Labour 29%, Liberal Democrat 10%, Ukip 16%, Green 6%

Populus: Conservatives 34% Labour 35% Liberal Democrats 9%, 13%

YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Ukip 15%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@stephenpollard: How will Britain ever recover from the loss of Norman Baker from Whitehall? We can ill afford to lose our conspiracy theorists.

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

James Kirkup - Cameron and Merkel: the end of the affair?

Bryony Gordon - The problem with those T-Shirts? Fashion, not feminism

Raziye Akkoc -

From elsewhere

Janan Ganesh - Ed Miliband's problem is his instinct, not his strategy (FT)
Mary Dejevsky -Angela Merkel has exposed David Cameron's gravest faling as a politician (Guardian)

AGENDA

1000 LONDON: Former Northern Ireland secretary Lord Mandelson gives evidence to the Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee on "on-the-runs".

1030 LONDON: Ofcom chief executive Ed Richards and chairman Dame Patricia Hodgson give evidence to Commons Culture, Media & Sport Committee.

1030 LONDON: The Bank of England gives evidence to the Lords Economic and Financial Affairs EU Sub-Committee on the EU Financial Regulatory Framework.

1235 LONDON: Treasury Minister David Gauke gives evidence to the Commons European Scrutiny Committee on the revised UK contribution to the EU budget.

1430 LONDON: Former Hong Kong governor Lord Patten of Barnes gives evidence to the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee on UK relations with Hong Kong.

1445 LONDON: Commons Home Affairs Committee takes evidence on the Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000.

1515 LONDON: Lords Communications Committee takes evidence on women in news and current affairs broadcasting. Cathy Newman and Miriam O'Reilly among the witnesses.

1530 LONDON: Elizabeth Truss speech setting out her vision for the environment.

1845 LONDON: Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond speech.

2000 LONDON: Nick Clegg takes questions live on BBC3's Free Speech.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons

Treasury Questions.

A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Abortion (Sex-Selection).

Modern Slavery Bill - Report stage and third reading.

A short debate on abuse on the internet of Members of Parliament.

Westminster Hall:

0930: Meat slaughtered in accordance with religious rites.

1100: Broadband in Cheltenham.

1430: Assessment of the second year of the badger culls.

1600: Gene testing for women diagnosed with ovarian cancer.

1630: Sentencing for dangerous driving offences.

The point of no return..

Has David Cameron stuck out his neck too far with his plans for migration controls? This morning's papers certainly seem to think so. The German weekly Der Spiegel reports a frosty conversationbetween the PM and his opposite number. Mr Cameron is reaching the "point of no return", Angela Merkel has warned, and she'd be prepared to accept a British exit from the European Union if the PM continues his attempts to unpick freedom of movement.
"Auf Wiedersehen, Britain" wails the i. New plans to further block access to benefits to anyone who hasn't paid into the system for two years are being drawn up by Downing Street are being examined if Frau Merkel won't play ball, Sam Coates and David Charter suggest in the Times ("Block all benefits for migrants, No 10 urged" is their splash.). It's thought that having a universal, not a contributory system, is a major pull factor to European immigrants. 
What's going on? Downing Street's line is that the PM's position remains unchanged: he'll do what's "right for Britain". As Mr Cameron has said before, it's the British people who are "the boss". It's worth noting that Frau Merkel's aides are disputing Der Spiegel's account of events. Remember too that it's the German Chancellor who first commented that the freedom of movement must mean freedom to work, not for "immigration into social systems". The space between the two leaders is not perhaps so great as it appears.
But it's another day of headlines focussed firmly on Ukip's favoured turf of immigration and Europe, to the detriment of the Government's economic message. "There's a danger that the anti-immigration and EU minority tail is wagging the majority British dog," Margot James writes this morning. There's a danger, too, that Nigel Farage is still being allowed to drive the debate so close to the election. 

FAREWELL, DARLING
After 28 years in Parliament, 13 of them in the Cabinet, Alistair Darling will stand down as an MP at the next election, Simon Johnson reports. Mr Darling sits down with George Parker in today's FT. "I've had one banking crisis and one Scottish referendum," the former Chancellor says, "I don't think anyone can accuse me of walking away prematurely." He's also endorsed Jim Murphy's bid to become leader of Scottish Labour, saying he can put "real fight" into that party's struggle to see off the SNP surge in 2015 and take back Holyrood in 2016.  Mr Darling's retirement was greeted by good wishes both inside and outside his party, but he wasn't always so well-liked. After hearing a young Darling speak, Neil Kinnock fumed: "I never want to see that bearded Trot becoming an MP!"
GEORGE'S MARVELLOUS MEDICINE
Taxpayers will receive a letter detailing how their tax contributions are spent across government, Peter Dominiczak reports. "Have You Been Add?" the Sun quips. It's the fulfilment of a personal project of the Chancellor that has been two years in the making, with the aim of increasing transparency around government spending. Other, more cynical observers, note that the letters are a useful dividing line as the election approaches. It appears to be having the desired effect: "How biggest chunk of your hard-earned tax goes on welfare" is the Mail's take. The average earner pays £1,113 on welfare, £857 on health, and £550 on state pensions, and just £52 on foreign aid.
DON'T SIT DOWN 'CAUSE I'VE MOVED YOUR CHAIR
Fiona Woolf has resigned from her position as head of the inquiry into historic child sex abuse, and the inquiry will start its work without a chairman. It's beginning to leave a mark on the usually bomb-proof Home Secretary, and to avoid a third resignation Ms Woolf's replacement will be vetted by both victims' groups and the Home Affairs Select Committee. Elsewhere, Theresa May has been accused of delaying Peter Wanless' report into the way the Home Office dealt with child abuse allegations between 1979 and 1999, Rowena Mason reports in the Guardian.

LIVING WAGE IS ALL THE RAGE
The UK "living wage" - an hourly rate based on the amount needed to cover the basic costs of living - has been raised by 20p to £7.85, with a new higher rate for London - it's currently £8.80 an hour - to be announced later today. In his column today, Boris Johnson explains why he supports the higher wage.  Elsewhere, Julia Unwin of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation explains her support for the wage in today's Times. But she's also got harsh words for Ed Miliband's £8 an hour wage pledge, saying it undermines "the careful tripartite approach" that has established the minimum wage and left it above "political whim".

MURPHY AND DUGDALE TO THE RESCUE?
Jim Murphy has resigned his post as Shadow Dfid Secretary to concentrate on the battle for Scottish Labour, with a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle expected to follow in short order. Meanwhile, the race for the deputy's post is hotting up, with left-wing MP Katy Clark throwing her hat in the ring, as well as highly-rated MSP and Shadow Scottish Education Secretary Kezia Dugdale, who has announced her intentions with an interview in the Daily Record.  But the post may go to Ms Dugdale unopposed. Ms Clark is currently five short of the parliamentary nominations required for the role with a day to go until nominations close.
THIS IS WHAT A CIRCULAR FIRING SUQAD LOOKS LIKE
The Fawcett Society is under fire after the Mail on Sunday that the T-shirts - worn by Messrs Clegg and Miliband but eschewed by the PM - were made in a sweatshop at wages of just 62p an hour, Nicola Harley reports. It's the charity's fault for not doing "due diligence" says Jim Murphy. It's the manufacturer's fault for not keeping their promises to us, reply the Fawcett Society. "This is what a chump looks like" the Mail chuckles over a picture of Mr Miliband in the T-Shirt. "So, this is what embarrassment looks like" is the i's slightly more sympathetic take.
You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work isavailable here.  
HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

POLL OF POLLS
Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 17% (ComRes-Populus-YouGov, 27.10.2014-03.11.2014)
LATEST POLLS:
Populus: Conservatives 34% Labour 34% Liberal Democrats 8%,  15%
YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15%, Greens 7%
TOO MANY TWEETS...
@GordonAikman: 23 years as an MP, 13 in Cabinet, 3 as Chancellor, banks back from brink & > 2 million #indyref No votes — Not a bad shift,@TogetherDarling
COMMENT
From the Telegraph

Boris Johnson - If we can send a man to space, we can pay a living wage
Iain Martin - Miliband's blunder? To think Scotland was all sewn upFrom elsewhere

David Aaronovitch - The public menace of a modern-day Gladstone(Times)Margot James  - The immigration debate is putting Britain's reputation at risk  (PoliticsHome)
AGENDA
1400 LONDON: Respublica thinktank launches report on short-term credit.  Mark Garnier MP and Cathy Jamieson, Shadow Financial Secretary to the Treasury, among the speakers.
1530 LONDON: Home Secretary Theresa May Commons statement on the historical child sex abuse inquiry.
1605 LONDON: EU Commissioner Lord Hill before Foreign Affairs Committee.
2235: Chuka Umunna on ITV's The Agenda.
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
COMMONS
Work and Pensions Questions.
Recall of MPs Bill - Committee of the whole House.
A motion to approve a money resolution relating to the International Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Bill.
A short debate on the future of Blackpool Airport.
LORDS
Questions.
Infrastructure Bill (HL) - Report stage.
A debate on the proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament, and establishing an EU agency for law enforcement training