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Ukip have their first elected MP in Clacton and they've given Labour one hell of a fright in Heywood & Middleton. The numbers are:
Clacton: Ukip 21,113 (60%), Conservatives 8,709 (25%), Labour (11%)
Heywood & Middleton: Labour 11,633 (41%), Ukip 11,016 (39%) Conservatives 3, 496 (12.3%)
It's a thumping defeat for the Conservatives - but a shattering victory for Labour. A percentage point increase on their 2010 showing in Heywood & Middleton, and in a seat that is only the 148th most Ukip-friendly. The question on Labour minds is: how will Ukip do in Great Grimsby, or Rotherham, both seats that Nigel Farage's party could take from them in May?
The Tory focus is now on Rochester & Strood, the 271st most Ukip-inclined seat as opposed to Clacton at N0. 1. If CCHQ can defeat Mark Reckless then they may be able to breathe a little easier - but there's a growing acceptance that a parliamentary presence for Ukip will be a fact of life, not just for the next eight months but for the forseeable future.
Both sides are out in force with their lines to take. "It underlines the scale of the challenge facing Labour," Douglas Alexander told the Today programme. "That's just put Ed Miliband closer to Downing Street," Grant Shapps said on the same programme later.
These soundbites feel awfully...familiar. Didn't their damp performance in the European elections "underline the scale of the challenge facing Labour"? Is there any reason to suspect the new variation on "Vote Ukip, Get Labour" will be any more effective than the last one? I wrote after the Scottish referendum that neither David Cameron or Ed Miliband seemed to have any real idea how to tackle one populist politician in the shape of Alex Salmond. They still don't seem to be any closer to working out how to contain Nigel Farage.
"IT COULD BE OVER IN SIX MONTHS"
"If western boots were on the ground," General David, now Lord Richards tells Mehdi Hasan, "Isil could be defeated "in six months". The former Chief of the Defence Staff sat down with the Huffington Post (read it here). The PM shares something of the same attitude as his predecessor-but-one, Tony Blair, says Lord Richards. "There are bad things happening in the world and they would like, with others, to do something about it. I think they do enjoy being influential, feeling that together with others they are making a difference. It's quite a drug. What I have been saying is that if you want to do that, for goodness sake, please do it properly, full-bloodiedly. Don't play at it."
THINK YOU BETTER GOVE NOW
Michael Gove considered replacing Sir Michael Wilshaw as the head of Ofsted, Richard Adams reveals in the Guardian. A DfE memo, written by Mr Gove's then-adviser Dominic Cummings, has been passed to the Guardian - the full text is here. "Ofsted has huge problems and Wilshaw does not have the necessary skills," Mr Cummings says.
DESPAIR IN THE DEPARTURE LOUNGE
Enhanced screening for Ebola will be introduced at Heathrow and Gatwick, despite advice from Public Health England and the World Health Organisation that such measures are ineffective and unhelpful, following a change in advice from the Chief Medical Officer, Dame Sally Davies - read Sarah Knapton's story here. "The single most reliable way for Britons now to avoid a gruesome early death remains to take up jogging and lay off the booze, not to close down Heathrow," argues Gaby Hinsliff in the Guardian.
MONEY *CAN* BUY YOU LOVE!
Ukip donors are able to buy their way into top positions, party members allege. "If you've got a big enough chequebook, anyone listens to you. It's not right," Caven Vines, a Ukip councillor in Rotherham, tells the Times. BLAIR VS. BROWN: "BEAUTIFUL GIRLS" VS "BIG BOYS WITH FLORID FACES"
Tony Blair filled Downing Street with "very beautiful girls" while Gordon Brown's mob were "a gang of big boys, rather overweight big boys with florid faces", Andrew Marr tells the Cheltenham Literature Festival. Read his comments on the inner workings of the courts of Thatcher, Major and Cameron here.
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his work onInstagram. You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", and via Twitter.
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TOO MANY TWEETS
@JohnMannMP: Ed Miliband does a lot of listening. Now he needs to do a bit more hearing.
POLL OF POLLS
Poll of polls 3rd to 10th October (Populus-YouGov)
Conservatives 33% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 14% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 30%, Labour 35%, Liberal Democrat 8%, Ukip 15%
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
Fraser Nelson - The Tories cannot fight for leafy areas and forget the poor
Rob Colvile - How close to home are the horrors of Ebola?
Stephen Bush - 15 By-Elections That Shook Britain
From elsewhere
Gaby Hinsliff - Labour is losing its grip on its core voters (Guardian)
Philip Collins - Two truths Labour doesn't want to hear (Times) Jam
AGENDA
0900 LONDON: Nigel Farage LBC phone-in.
1100 LONDON: Chuka Umunna speech on Black History Month
A day of two by-elections: in Clacton, a day of all but certain victory for Ukip, and in Heywood & Middleton, a similar walkover for Labour, although in Greater Manchester as in Essex, it's the fortunes of Nigel Farage's party that intrigue, as the People's Army underline their credentials as the second force in Labour's northern strongholds.
It's a "new dawn" declares Nigel Farage. "Clacton is a shift in the tectonic plates of British politics. And if we win in Heywood and Middleton, it will be Krakatoa." "Two smaller stories in a longer epic" is James Kirkup's phrase in his column today. In the 1951 election, Labour racked up 48.8% of the vote to the Conservatives' 48%. Our poll of polls today has the two parties on 35% and 33%. The Big Two's grip on the electorate has lessened, as votes flock to the Liberals, the Greens and Ukip. "Each by-election win for the insurgents causes another small crack in the earth beneath the two-party establishment" is James' conclusion.
With both results so certain, what's there to look out for? In Clacton, look for what happens to Labour's vote share - they polled 25% of the vote in 2010 and they held the seat until 2005. And in Heywood & Middleton, see if Ukip can get to 30% in second-place in a seat that is not natural territory for them. It's a test of their machine ahead of the much more difficult battle in Rochester & Strood. And it's a reminder that, for all the talk of Ukip having reached their zenith in the European elections, their story still has a little way left to run.
IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT (FEAT. KEITH VAZ)
"Why Won't UK Test Air Travellers For Ebola?" the Mail demands. The United States will introduce immediate screening of passengers from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, and Keith Vaz, keen to protect the public/appear in print, says that immediate screening is essential. “What we need to ensure is that the public feel there is confidence at our borders and that means, we need to put in screening at our borders in order to give the public that confidence," Mr Vaz announced. The rationale for not introducing the flights is that direct flights to the countries in question have already been suspended, meaning that all incoming travellers from European hubs would need to be screened, resulting in lengthy queues. "While vigilance is necessary, we should avoid hysteria," our leader notes, "Ebola is not as easily transmittable as, say, influenza, and the NHS is good at managing unusual infectious diseases."
ED GETS IT IN THE NEC
Labour's ruling National Executive Committee say that Ed Miliband is "afflicted with the curse of Gordon Brown". Like Mr Brown, sources within the NEC tell the Telegraph, he is popular with people he meets, but he "can't meet eight million people between now and May". Meanwhile, leading member of the NEC's left-wing bloc, Ann Black, criticises Ed Balls' plans to cap child benefit increases to 1% a year for two years : "Most think it is a bad idea. We should be putting children first." Meanwhile, another party donor has come out against the mansion tax. Assem Allam, the owner of Hull City FC, who has given £210,000 to the party since 2010, tells the Times: "The mansion tax is a very bad idea. It's a vote killer. He will lose more votes than he will get."
AIR STRIKES "WON'T SAVE KOBANE"
Air strikes alone may not be enough to save the Syrian border town of Kobane, the Pentagon has said. Nor can the wider battle, Philip Hammond conceded on Newsnight yesterday: "Nobody has pretended that the battle against Isil can be won from the air alone." The American-led air strikes are "a holding operation", Mr Hammond said.
HILL BE COMMISSIONER
Lord Hill of Oareford has been confirmed by MEPs as the European Union's next financial services regulator, Bruno Waterfield reports. The good news keeps coming for David Cameron, as the European commission's review of accession talks suggests further transitional controls on new members of the EU. GENERATION Y (CAN'T I BUY A HOUSE?)
66% of renters are stuck in the "rent trap" and could end up renting forever, Emily Dugan reports in the Indy. Polling of private renters for Shelter found that 5 million people in the private rented sector were unable to save up towards a deposit. "The prospect of a stable home is becoming a distant dream for far too many young people," Campbell Robb, Shelter's Chief Executive, warned.
THE CONDIMENT STRATEGY
Nick Clegg has dusted off "the condiment strategy" as the Liberal Democrats gear up for the next election. "Whatever party you're eating, add a soupçon of Liberal Democrat to improve the dish!" was the short version of his speech yesterday. It hasn't convinced much of the press:"Not a Clegg To Stand On" is the Sun's verdict. Their leader nails the inconsistency at the heart of the DPM's argument: "He bemoans the failure of coalition while claiming it's vital the Lib Dems are part of another one next May." But for all it makes little sense at a national level, it allows the Liberals to campaign in one way in Labour seats and another in Conservative territory without seeming incoherent - and that tactic has worked before for Mr Clegg.
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his work onInstagram. You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", and via Twitter.
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
Gatwick can connect Britain to the future, faster. A new runway at Gatwick can be delivered by 2025, at no additional cost to the taxpayer. A third runway at Heathrow would cost more than twice as much, be part-funded by the British taxpayer, and involve tunneling the M25 and introducing a road congestion charge at the airport.
TOO MANY TWEETS
@stephentall: If I was Danny Alexander, I'm not sure I'd want to be known as "Nick's anointed successor".
POLL OF POLLS
Poll of polls 2nd to 9th October (Populus-YouGov)
Conservatives 33% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 14% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrat 8%, Ukip 15%
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
James Kirkup - Is this the day politics changes for ever?
Peter Oborne - The time has come for Britian to back a Palestinian state
Mark Almond - The Turks won't do the West's dirty work
From elsewhere
Jenni Russell - Labour is losing its grip on its core voters (Times)
James Forsyth - Why are the Lib Dems duffing up the Tories? To ensure another coalition (Spectator)
George Eaton - Labour fear that they no longer deserve to win(Statesman)
AGENDA
1300: Nick Clegg speech.
Crisis over? The latest YouGov has Labour back in the lead with 34% to the Conservatives on 32%. Well, the same caveats that applied to the Conservative lead in previous days also apply to today's. It could be that Labour are reasserting their poll lead - or it could be that the momentum is still with David Cameron.
In any case, the fears stirred up over the last few days will not be dispelled by the expected win in Heywood and Middleton or a recovery in the Labour lead. Even the loyalists are out in force, demanding a change in course for Ed Miliband, with a former adviser telling the Times that the Labour leader must make "big changes" if he is to prevail next weekend. Elsewhere, former National Executive member and longtime supporter of Ed Miliband, Luke Akehurst, has rounded on the leadership for its timidity and drift. That party's line that they are not in contention in Rochester & Strood has riled Mr Akehurst. "Our mentality this close to General Election ought to be that we are an unstoppable force, not a party too scared of Nigel Farage to take him on in a seat we held until the last election," he says.
Here in Glasgow, all eyes are on another leader whose best days may well be behind him. A brave intervention on mental health - Nick Clegg will pledge an extra £120m in cash and will call for a cultural change so "a young dad chatting at school gates will feel as comfortable discussing anxiety, stress, depression, as the mum who is explaining she sprained her ankle" - is overshadowed by dark mutterings about the party's future. As I said on Monday, for all the bonhomie among activists and parliamentarians, at the top of the party, senior MPs are braced for a wipe-out. They know all too well, as the pollsterPeter Kellner suggested at a fringe yesterday, that the party's longterm future could well be shares of the vote below 10% and just 20 to 30 MPs.
There's an irony that the two men's struggles are the last comfort of their opposite numbers. Ed Miliband's closest advisers still believe that the collapse in the Liberal vote will allow their man to sneak into office despite everything - while senior Liberal Democrats reassure themselves that they will win back votes from Labour due to Mr Miliband's poor personal ratings and the inadequacy of Team Ed. They can't both be right - and there's the risk, as outlined by Mary Riddell in her column today, that both parties could end the next election in the wilderness, not just for the moment but for the forseeable future.
"WHEN KOBANE FALLS, IT WILL BE LIKE WORLD WAR III"
The city of Kobane - a Syrian city near the Turkish border - "will fall" to Isil despite US-led airstrikes, Turkish premier Recepp Erdogan has said, and that the West must use ground troops if they are to prevent the forward march of Isil, Robert Tait reports from the Turkish-Syrian border. At home, British intelligence has foiled the first Isil plot on British soil, arresting four men in a series of armed raids. The men are believed to have been plotting a "significant" attack.
ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL
Labour's planned mansion tax could force pensioners to move out of their homes or hand their relatives a £300,000 bill from the taxman after they die, Steven Swinford and Ben Riley-Smith reveal. A former Labour minister tells the Telegraph: "[The] mansion tax is catastrophic and...will hit voters in parts of the country where we need to make an impact."
A CHILL WIND BLOWS
Ed Davey has accused Eric Pickles of deliberating slowing down the opening of new onshore wind farms, while Vince Cable told a British Wind reception that behind Conservative opposition to the farms was a "really irrational phobia". In a further bid to win over Tory hearts, Mr Cable later suggested that golf courses should be build over in order to solve the country's housing crisis, Chris Hope reports.
FARAGE: POUR HOMME
Nigel Farage concedes that his "blokeish" image and Ukip's "rugby club on a day out"are off-putting to women. Mr Farage hopes that a new generation of talented women Ukippers will put paid to the problem.
FARAGE FOREVER
Ed Miliband will be "gone by Christmas" if Ukip triumph in the Heywood & Middleton by-election, Nigel Farage says in the Sun. (Labour insiders on the ground are confident of defeating Ukip's John Bickley) Nigel Farage himself will be in office until at least 2018 after being re-elected unopposed, Chris Hope reports.
FEAR AND LOATHING IN...CLACTON?
Douglas Carswell is a vain "traitor" who has cost the people of Clacton more than £200,000, Mick Page, the Conservative leader of Tendring District Council, tells Matt Holehouse. "What a waste of money. All for one man's vanity." Mr Carswell, who is on course to win tomorrow's by-election, insists that his decision to force a by-election was "the only honourable thing to do".
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his work onInstagram. You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", and via Twitter.
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
Expansion at Gatwick is the right choice for Britain’s economy. It will deliver around £90 billion of economic benefit and create around 120,000 jobs across the UK. Building the country’s new airport capacity Gatwick will deliver balanced growth for London - and South London in particular - rather than simply overheat one part of the Capital.
TOO MANY TWEETS
@dats: A debate between members in the exhibition centre: "I wish this wasn't the font for the Lib Dems. No, it's not Helvetica!"
POLL OF POLLS
Poll of polls 31st September to 8th October (Populus-YouGov)
Conservatives 33% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 14% Others 10%
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrat 8%, Ukip 15%
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
Mary Riddell - The death of the Left in British politics cannot be ruled out
From elsewhere
Rafael Behr - Liberalism has triumphed but the Liberal Democrats cannot capitalise (Guardian)
AGENDA
1300: Nick Clegg speech
An important rule of polling: the first poll is happenstance, the second a coincidence, the third just noise. By the fourth, however, it may well be a trend.
The latest Ashcroft poll has the Conservatives on 32% to Labour on 30%, while today's YouGov poll for the Sun has numbers of 35% to 33%, the lowest Labour share for that company for two years.
It could just be a conference bounce - and the usual caveats about the volatility of Ashcroft polls remain - and it's worth noting that the latest Populus poll has a robust Labour lead of 37% to 31%. But it's increased the jitters around the Labour leader's position and the bad feeling in that party after a flat conference.
The problem is as much of personality as policy - even in the Populus poll, Ed Miliband's personal ratings are giving Labour MPs the vapours - but its the mansion tax that is attracting serious opposition. John Mills tellsthe Huffington Post that the tax will "cause all sorts of problems", while Margaret Hodge becomes the latest London MP to come out against the mansion tax in the Times. "Grandees turn on Miliband" is their splash.
How much trouble is Ed Miliband in? Internally, the mansion tax is more likely to do more long-lasting damage to his preferred candidate for the London mayoralty, Sadiq Khan, who,being one of Mr Miliband's closest allies is now the only runner for that office not to have declared his opposition to the measure. (Diane Abbot on the left, David Lammy from the centre and the right's Tessa Jowell have all come out against the move.) The rumours yesterday about Alan Johnson look be the mutterings of the usual discontents, and in any case, he's still not interested. There's no serious prospect of Ed Miliband not leading his party into the battle in May. But his chances of victory are diminishing.
YES! NO! MAYBE.
The Liberal Democrats are divided over whether they should acquiesce to the Conservatives' desire for an In-Out referendum, Sam Coates reports in the Times. The "Alistair Carmichael position" - the Secretary of State for Scotland told a fringe yesterday that without a Conservative majority, there would not be a referendum at all - does not hold much weight among Liberal Democrats, although there is a bigger divide on how big a prize the negotiating team should extract for supporting a vote. A straight European swap - the Human Rights Act preserved in exchange for an In-Out referendum - looks the most likely outcome. It's part of the bigger argument about whether to go into battle with a coalition-ready manifesto or a bigger, more inspiring offer to the country. Tim Farron, one of the louder advocates for the latter approach, will address conference today and will call for a vast increase in the housebuilding programme. "They are not interested in the past, they are interested in the future," Mr Farron will say: "Their votes depend on what happens next, not what happened last. Looking back alone will not win us a single seat next May."
THE GOVE IN WHITEHALL KNOWS BEST
Michael Gove's quiet influence at the centre of government continues to grow, Elizabeth Rigby and Sarah Neville report in the FT. He has begun attending weekly meetings of Whitehall's permanent secretaries. The breach in all protocol has ruffled traditionalist feathers but it's a measure of the fact that, for all his demotion in the reshuffle, he remains one of the government's key men.
DAMNED WITH FAINT PRAISE
Nick Clegg would rather wake up next to his wife, Miriam, than David Cameron or Ed Miliband, he told Sky News yesterday. The image was "disturbing", the DPM added. (Of Dave or Ed, I hasten to add.) Georgia Graham has the story.
LIVERPOOL FOOTBALL CLUB "A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT IDEAL"
"Winning has become the primary motive" in football since 1992, a motion before Conference today warns.
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his work onInstagram. You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", and via Twitter.
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
Gatwick’s vision is of two world-class airports in London helping to connect the country to the rest of the world. We want to see Gatwick grow, and Heathrow improve. As connections to emerging markets become more important, and the UK’s core European markets continue to grow, we need a network of airports, enabling London to function as a true global city and our economy and tourism to thrive as a result.
TOO MANY TWEETS
@helenlewis: I really want a SpAd. Someone to follow you around telling you how well you're doing & stopping awkward people from talking to you.
POLL OF POLLS
Poll of polls 30th September to 7th October (Populus-YouGov), Labour lead of three points
LATEST POLLS
Ashcroft: Conservatives 32% Labour 30% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 17%
Populus: Conservatives 31% Labour 37% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 15%
YouGov: Conservatives 35% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 13%
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
James Kirkup - Why the Archers is mightier than the Artillery
Stephen Bush - The strange death of a Lib-Lab Coalition
Andrew Haldenby - The NHS must learn to be smarter
From elsewhere
Rachel Sylvester - Why Clegg needs to be a street-fighting man (Times)
Janan Ganesh - Nick Clegg could be in office for a decade (FT)
AGENDA
0900 LONDON: Boris Johnson phone-in on LBC radio.
0930: Bank of England releases its credit conditions survey for the third quarter of 2014
1130 HEYWOOD & MIDDLETON: Nigel Farage visits Heywood &Middleton.
1220 GLASGOW: Norman Lamb speech to Liberal Democrat Conference.
1420 GLASGOW: Ed Davey speech to Liberal Democrat Conference.
1610 GLASGOW: Tim Farron speech to Liberal Democrat Conference
As a particularly geeky teenager, I spent more time than was strictly healthy at science fiction conventions. Since arriving at the Liberal Democrats' party conference, I've been fighting back an unnerving sense of deja vu.
As with a science fiction convention, the show might not be as good as it once was, but there's an excitement among attendees just to be alongside other people with strong opinions about the D'Hondt system of proportional representation. ("A family gathering" was the spin one Liberal Democrat put on it last night.) That, for the most part, explains the surprisingly cheerful atmosphere here in Glasgow.
At the top of the party, the mood is less sunny. The show is not only less popular than it was but appears to be flirting with cancellation. The bleak prospects for the party outlined in Lord Ashcroft's polling and the collapse in its support among first-time voters (from 414,500 in 2010 to just 84,000 in 2015) are both, I'm told, echoed in the party's private polling.
In the expectation of heavy losses, what one senior Liberal Democrat described as a "beauty pageant" is already underway. The new and improved Danny Alexander - glasses off, shirtsleeves rolled up, eyes glinting with suppressed ambition - unveiled yesterday is first off the bat.
Others are worried that the jostling for advantage will leave a series of unwanted commitments and red lines that will damage the party's ability to negotiate a Coalition deal next May. These advocates of a "Coalition-ready" manifesto will feel further strengthened by our splash: "Cameron told: raise tax or no coalition" is the headline. Nick Clegg's appearance on the Marr Show and Mr Alexander's speech both committed the Liberal Democrats to raising taxes after the next election. "Vote Liberal and your taxes go up. No-one can say we're not brave" was the glum verdict of one activist last night. Vince Cable is next up to bat arguing for "sanity and sense" in the immigration debate, which is sure to go down well in the hall. But I just wonder: vote Liberal for higher taxes and increased immigration. Perhaps they were better off with a dodgy bar chart.
BOMB FIRST, VOTE LATER
"Air strikes on Isis in Syria 'not enough'" is the Guardian's splash. Kurdish forces have joined the chorus of voices calling for boots on the ground to tackle Isil. US-led airstrikes have so far failed to halt the march of the terrorist organisation on Kobani, a key city on the Turkish border. But the parliamentary arithmetic for further action has been made more difficult after Nick Clegg signalled his opposition to UK support for air strikes in Syria, while former head of the army Lord Richards says that cuts to the armed forces must be reversed in order to defeat Isil, Steven Swinford reports.
LAMB: I WON'T LIE DOWN WITH YOU
"I'm afraid I don't see Ed Miliband as a Prime Minister," Norman Lamb told attendees to a CentreForum/Fabian Society fringe, Rowena Masonreports in the Guardian. Mr Lamb continued that supporting a Labour Party with fewer votes and more seats would receive "zero honeymoon" from the voters and be "enormously damaging" to the Liberal Democrats.
OH NHS, THOU ART SICK
"The NHS timebomb" is the Indy's splash. "Who can save the NHS?" cries the i. "NHS needs billions for hospitals to meet rising patient demand" is the FT's take. The Health Service is at "breaking point", a coalition of the country's leading doctors, nurses and charity bosses warn in a letter in today's Indy. It's partly due to an ageing population and the rising cost of new drugs, Sarah Neville explains in the FT.
ATTAINMENT GAP
60,000 children from poorer households a year are being failed by poor schooling, Alan Milburn, the government's social mobility tsar, has warned. While there is still a strong link between a pupil's background and their attainment, an additional 60,000 children would achieve five good GCSEs if all schools learnt lessons from those doing most to raise standards among poorer children. But polling for the commission has found a lack of will to break the cycle, with one in five teachers saying that some of their colleagues have lower expectations of children from deprived backgrounds, while half say they are put off by the prospect of working in a weaker school. John Bingham has the details.
DR FREUD, TAX INSPECTOR
HMRC is using psychologists to encourage people to pay their taxes, Danny Alexander revealed yesterday. "Nudge theory" suggests that small changes in language can result in altered patterns of behaviour, and it's already led to an estimated £210 million uptick in revenues, Steven Swinford reports. "We know where you live, we know how much you owe, and now we know how you think," Mr Alexander warned tax evaders.
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his work onInstagram. You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", and via Twitter.
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
Gatwick’s vision is of two world-class airports in London helping to connect the country to the rest of the world. We want to see Gatwick grow, and Heathrow improve. As connections to emerging markets become more important, and the UK’s core European markets continue to grow, we need a network of airports, enabling London to function as a true global city and our economy and tourism to thrive as a result.
TOO MANY TWEETS
@helenlewis: I really want a SpAd. Someone to follow you around telling you how well you're doing & stopping awkward people from talking to you.
POLL OF POLLS
Poll of polls 29th September to 6th October Populus-YouGov), Labour lead of three points
LATEST POLLS
Populus: Conservatives 33% Labour 38% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 13%
YouGov: Conservatives 36% Labour 34% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 13%
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
Boris Johnson - A Citizens' Wealth Fund would create billions for investment
Rob Colvile - Does David Cameron realise how miserable a second term would be?
From elsewhere
Fraser Nelson - Why every Tory should wish the Liberal Democrats a successful conference (Spectator)
Yasmin Alibhai-Brown -It is our solemn duty to stand against these murderers (Independent)
AGENDA
1000 LONDON: David Cameron talks with French Prime Minister Manuel Valls.
1000 GLASGOW: Kirsty Williams AM speech to Liberal Democrat Party Conference.
1220 GLASGOW: Vince Cable speech to Liberal Democrat Party Conference.
1440 GLASGOW: Jo Swinson speech to Liberal Democrat Party Conference.
1815 GLASGOW: Danny Alexander in conversation with Steve Richards
Party like it's 2012! For the first time since March of that year, the Conservatives have a poll lead. A YouGov poll for the Sun and Times has the Tories on 35% to Labour's 34. "Ed's Ukippered And Now Cam's Trout In Front" is the Sun's page 2 headline. "Tories seize poll lead after tax cut promises" is the Times' splash.
As ever with a single poll, the results should be taken with a fairly large handful of salt. Labour's poll share is fairly consistent at 34-36%, while the Conservative share again, is largely static at 32-34%. Today's poll is at the bottom end of the Labour share and is unusually high for the Conservatives but it's probably just noise. There should be a Populus poll out by around noon today - link here - that will probably show a small Labour lead.
The overall picture, however, is troubling for Ed Miliband. A Survation poll in today's Sun has underwhelming numbers in Heywood & Middleton. Labour are on 50% to Ukip's 30%, confirming the fears on the ground that the party is set for an underwhelming victory in the by-election. According to Revolt on the Right, the set text on Ukip, the constiutency is only the 148th most Ukip-friendly seat. Labour got 40% of the vote here under Gordon Brown, so Ed Miliband's outfit really ought to win by a cricket score. (It's not all good news for Ukip, either. Heywood is not ideal territory but is a far less tricky enterprise than Rochester & Strood, the 271st most Ukip-friendly seat.)
Meanwhile in Scotland, the SNP's surge in membership - they've trebled since the referendum result - looks to be being accompanied by a bump in the polls for Westminster elections as well. Panelbase puts the Nationalists on 34% to Labour's 32%, a swing of 12% to the SNP. It could cost Labour up to 19 seats north of the border.
Elsewhere, a new report by a former aide to Ed Miliband suggests that, far from helping Labour, Nigel Farage's party could further jeopardise that party's chances of winning power, Andy Grice reports in the Indy. Ukip could damage Tory prospects in just 13 Labour targets, while the People's Army could harm Labour in 39 Conservative-Labour marginals. (The number of seats where the two parties are at direct risk of a Ukip pick-up is tied at five each.) Small wonder that calls are growing for Labour to rip up the target list and start over - it's a "two-party strategy in a four-party world" says an article in this month's Progress Magazine, the journal of the Blairite-aligned think tank.
Labour looked very far from a party on the brink of taking power in Manchester and the Conservatives looked some distance away from one with any thoughts of relinquishing it. That impression looks all the clearer today before we head off to Glasgow and the party conference that still gives Labour hope of taking office: that of the flatlining Liberals.
RIGHTS AND WRONGS
"A new British Bill of Rights" is our splash."End of Human Rights Farce"is the Mail's. The Express goes one further: "Human Rights Madness To End" is their take. "Rights Act In The Bin" cheers the Sun. The new law will reduce the powers of the European Court in Strasbourg to that of an advisory body, whose rulings will be subject to a vote of Parliament. The proposal "should have every Briton's full support" our leader roars. Lord Howard certainly does, and he's laid out in his case in the pages of the Telegraph. Dominic Grieve, the former Attorney General, cut a frustrated figure on the Today programme this morning. "There is a misunderstanding about what the ECHR does," he wailed. As for Chris Grayling - who has penned an article for the Mail explaining the proposed law - his explanatory paper contains "a number of howlers", Mr Grieve says. However, the pledge is unlikely to form a red line in coalition negotiations, Mr Grayling appeared to concede on the Today programme: "Our position is we're going for a majority and if you want this, vote Conservative."
THE WRATH OF CLEGG
Nick Clegg has hit back at Theresa May's claims that his blocking of the "Snooper's Charter" has endangered the lives of children. "This is a new low point in coalition relations," the DPM spluttered on his LBC radio show. Sources close to the Home Secretary were quick to respond, describing Nick Clegg using a word beginning with 'W' that I cannot repeat in the Briefing. Duncan Hames, a Liberal Democrat MP, has called for an official investigation, saying that the remarks breach the special adviser's code of conduct.
DIAL B FOR BULLYING
A Westminster phone line dubbed 'the harassment hotline', designed for staff and MPs to report allegations of bullying and harassment, has received just 31 calls since its launch earlier this year, Radhika Sanghani reports. The real number is "likely much, much higher" says Harriet Maltby, a former parliamentary researcher, writes, "it's all so normalised we might think it's part of working here". "In my experience, if you raise your head above the parapet and complain, you’re not whistleblowing about that one MP, you’re essentially calling suicide on your political career," Bridget Harris, a former SpAd to Nick Clegg, explains. Elsewhere, in an interview with the House Magazine, Baroness Grender reveals that she was sexually harassed by an MP - now dead - when she first began working in Parliament her early 20s.
THATCHER'S BIGGEST MISTAKE
"I have not that long to go," Margaret Thatcher told one of her closest aides, "My party won't want me to lead them into the next election - and I don't blame them." The year was 1983 and she had just won a second term in a landslide. She would remain in office until 1990. That's among the revelations from the latest stack of the former Prime Minister's papers, released under the 30-year rule. Edward Malnick details the key findings.
SOMEWHERE A CLOCK IS TICKING
The PM believes that the Financial Times is the most left-wing paper in Britain, according to Ephraim Hardcastle. Over at the FT, Comrade Kiran Stacey reports that the Opposition is rattled by the popularity of the PM's tax pledge. They hope that highlighting the black hole left by the tax cuts will make the promise less attractive and they've launched an online clockmarking the time between the pledge and any announcement as to how the £7bn will be found.
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his work onInstagram. You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", and via Twitter.
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TOO MANY TWEETS
@tnewtondunn: There was a minister called Matt,
Who tweeted and looked quite a prat,
Sorry he said, and went quite red,
Who said too many tweets make a..?
POLL OF POLLS
Poll of polls 25th September to 2nd October (Opinium-Populus-YouGov), Labour lead of four points
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 35% Labour 34% Liberal Democrats 6% Ukip 15%
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
Fraser Nelson - The PM's tax pledge won't break the bank, but his NHS one might
Raziye Akkoc - On Twitter as in life, the PM is more popular than his party
Stephen Bush - Six Things We Learned at Conservative Party Conference
From elsewhere
Gaby Hinsliff - There's one thing worse than coalition: opposition(Guardian)
Oliver Wright - Salami cuts won't save enough. Only a total rethink will(Independent)
Philip Collins - The biggest danger to Britain? Dave, not Ed (Times)
AGENDA
0900 MIDLOTHIAN: Vince Cable MP to unveil details of significant new investment to support the training and development of PhD students during a visit to the University of Edinburgh.
1430 INVERNESS: Lord Ashdown and Danny Alexander to visit army museum
Didn't he do well? "Mr Cameron knew the occasion demanded one heck of a performance," writes Quentin Letts in the Mail: "I'd say he gave it." "David Cameron saved the best lines for himself," is Phil Johnston's verdict on what Steve Swinford and Holly Watt call "one of the best speeches of his political career". "Cameron's speech was like a finely glazed, elegantly decorated doughnut," declares Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian: "it was constructed around a gaping hole, namely the gap left for by the Labour leader last week." "The election starts here" is the Guardian's headline.
It's not just the delivery but the detail that has the papers purring: the personal allowance raised from £10,500 to £12,500 by 2020, lifting one million people out of tax altogether, the threshold for the 40p rate raised to £50,000 from £42,285. The coverage couldn't be much better if Lynton Crosby had written it himself. "Cameron gives 30m a tax cut" is our splash. "Here Cams The Sun" roars the Sun. "More for the middle: Cameron makes his election offer" says the Indy."Cameron's £7bn tax giveaway to middle class" is the Times' take. At Last, A Real Tory Premier" sighs the Mail.
Hold on just a moment, says Ed Balls. Where are you going to find £7.2bn from, exactly? "Nobody will be fooled by pie in the sky promises of tax cuts in six years' time when David Cameron cannot tell us where the money is coming from," says the Shadow Chancellor. All in all, it means an extra£28bn of austerity - equivalent to the entire budget for the Department of Transport according to the Times - with no commitment, as yet, as to where it comes from.
Don't be such a killjoy, is Jonathan Isaby's response. "This was a positive speech for taxpayers, with tax cuts for the lowest paid and long-overdue relief for ordinary people being clobbered by the higher rate of tax." "David Cameron ensured yesterday that the Conservatives will be playing at home in next year's general election - on their favourite 'tax and spending' field," is Andy Grice's analysis in the i. It's put the Tories firmly back on the front foot as the election campaign kicks into gear. "His outstanding performance in Birmingham, and that of the team he leads, has made a Tory victory dramatically more likely," is our leader's verdict. The optimism at the Conservative party conference which seemed so incongruous on Sunday now seems rather better-founded.
THE DEFAMATION OF ARRON BANKS
Our man Chris Hope was among the tired journalists lured out to Bristol by Ukip in the promise of a "big announcement". Could it be another defector? No such luck. It was defectee donor Arron Banks, who, Nigel Farage said, was so exercised by William Hague's comments that "I have never heard of him, so we are not going to get too upset about that" that he was increasing his £100,000 donation to £1 million. "Now Mr Hague will know who I am," chuntered Mr Banks. Indeed. We now also know that there are no more big-name defectors waiting in the wings, and that behind the scenes, Ukip's machine is as prone to unforced errors as it ever was. HILL NEED TO DO BETTER THAN THAT, MEPS SAY
Lord Hill of Oareford faces an unprecedented second confirmation hearing to become Europe's financial regulation chief after MEPs complained that his grasp on his portfolio left much to be desired, Alex Barker reports in the FT. Speaking to the Today programme, Philippe Lamberts, a Green MEP, said that Lord Hill "had no clue", "showed no grasp of the issues", and that "while he is a charming person he has no knowledge". That Lord Hill's testimony appeared, on first blush, to be close to flawless has raised fears that leftist MEPs are looking for any pretext to dump Lord Hill. YOU'RE TAKING A LIBERTY, RAAB SAYS
Civil rights groups have been angered by the PM's proposal to scrap the Human Rights Act and replace it with a "British Bill of Rights". Amnesty UK's campaigns director, Tim Hancock, tells the Guardian: “Theresa May made much in her speech about how we must stand up and fight for human rights abroad, it makes absolutely no sense to denigrate those same rights at home." Meanwhile, the Home Secretary's planned "disruption orders" are the subject of a stinging rebuke from Dominic Raab in today's Telegraph. It's "contrary to our great tradition of free speech," Mr Raab says.
"WE WENT ALONG WITH ALMOST EVERYTHING THE TORIES WANTED"
Shirley Williams sits down with Andrew Billen in the Times. The Baroness says that in the first 18 months of coalition, the Liberal Democrats were so keen to prove that it could work that "basically, we went along with almost everything the Tories wanted". But it's the pledge not to raise tuition fees that has really done for the Liberals, Baroness Williams says. "[It] was a terrible mistake. I neer signed it and I thought it was very foolish." But, she says, the decision to go into coalition was the right one. "There was literally no alternative in 2010. That doesn't mean one likes the alternative at all. I don't." Casting an eye over her old party, she's still unimpressed: "Ed Miliband sounds like an academic."
ET TU, BENITO?
Nick Griffin has been kicked out of the BNP. He's accused of trying to "embroil the BNP in factionalism designed to destabilise our party". It's part of the new leadership's attempt to take control of the wills and monies that keep the BNP ticking over, Matthew Goodwin, an expert on the politics of the radical right, explains.
DAVID CAMERON'S STAR SIGNING
Two-time Premier League winner Sol Campbell could join the Conservatives in order to fight Labour's mansion tax, Keith Perry reports. "I can’t understand why Labour want to bring in a mansion tax. It’s madness," Mr Campbell tells the Telegraph. “All I can do is pray it won’t happen. They have gone too far now. A hell of a lot of people are worried about it. I might have to think about working for the Tories. This has to be nipped in the bud.”
Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams; you can see his work onInstagram. You can get in touch with me by hitting "reply", and via Twitter.
A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS
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TOO MANY TWEETS
@tara_mulholland: Imagine being in the position to respond to insults by throwing a million pounds around. The most I ever do is eat a million Jaffa Cakes.POLL OF POLLS
Poll of polls 25th September to 2nd October (Opinium-Populus-YouGov), Labour lead of four points
LATEST POLLS
YouGov: Conservatives 31% Labour 38% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 15%
COMMENT
From the Telegraph
James Kirkup - David Cameron vs Ed Miliband: the narrative the Tories are hoping for
Janet Daley - David Cameron said everything we might have hoped for
Alison Pearson - Let's hear it for Theresa May
From elsewhere
Jane Merrick - Theresa May is ready for Number 10 (Independent)
George Eaton - History gives the Tories confidence; but the rules have changed (Statesman)
Jenni Russell - The next election is a choice between Mr Bumble and Pollyanna (Times)
AGENDA
0900: Call Clegg on LBC 97.3.
0930 LONDON: Bank of England Financial Policy Committee statement
