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Good morning. Nick Clegg must have hoped that today's papers would devote themselves to reflecting his love affair with Britain, as set out in his speech to his party's spring conference in York yesterday ("Tea ad the shipping forecast make Britain great, says Clegg" is our take, though Quentin Letts says it's all guff).
Instead he's stuck with headlines reflecting confusion about his plans for after the election. Will he go? Will he stay? One of the most deadly words for a politician is "clarify", and Mr Clegg's office had to do plenty of that after a briefing went wrong. "Clegg forced to clarify post-election plans" says the front of the Guardian. "Bungling Clegg sparks leadership race" says the Mail on p2. The Times seems clear: "Win or lose I'll stay as Lib Dem leader, says Clegg". What appears to have happened is that his operation initially suggested - as many have speculated - that he would stand down if he failed to lead the Lib Dems back into government after 2015. Certainly the assumption is that David Cameron will quit if he is forced to leave Downing Street (come to think of it, maybe we should ask), and so the same must apply to Mr Clegg. But yesterday the DPM's office issued a second statement saying that he "intends to be the leader of the Liberal Democrats today, tomorrow, into the 2015 election and through the whole of he next Parliament".
We know that when politicians appear to assume a certain outcome they invite one of those "we'll be the judge of that" answers. In this case it may well be that the Lib Dems collectively, or more particularly members of its parliamentary party, may study Mr Clegg's words and mutter to themselves "hang on….". Can he credibly claim the right to remain in office after the election when he doesn't know its outcome? It may turn out better than many predict, but his position will be decided by the party's performance and how his colleagues react. The Tories, it is true to say, fail to give Mr Clegg credit for the support he has across his party. He is surprisingly popular given how painful coalition has been for the Lib Dems. Indeed, Mr Cameron has cause to envy the easy ride his deputy get compared to the grief the PM gets from his own side. The coverage of Mr Clegg's leadership intentions proves the point, that politicians should avoid answering questions they aren't asked, or providing predictions about how long they might last. Mr Clegg has legitimised what could be an awkward and public conversation about his future.
CAN UKIP COPE WITH SCRUTINY?
Ukip gets it in the neck in the papers today. The Times reports that Ukip MEPs are encouraged to pay a "tithe" of £10,000 a year to party HQ, and the party's code of conduct says that they can afford to because MEPs receive "generous expenses" from the European Parliament "some of which does not require receipts". It also reports on Ukip's monthly Gadfly Dinner, which is held at Pierre-Bois et Feu, a restaurant described as "classique" in the Michelin Guide, in Strasbourg: "When Mr Farage books an evening, the restaurant is closed to other customers and a special menu is prepared, at €50 (£41) a head." Worse, Ukip is also accused of sending invoices to the Europe of Freedom and Democracy group in the European Parliament, which would contravene parliamentary rules. It's also chaos at party HQ: "A senior adviser to Mr Farage occasionally brings her cat to work. Another has been known to sit with an "Orgasmatron" wire massage device on her head. At one point the office white board had a "people we want to shag" list on it, which included Mr Farage’s name." Does any of this matter? It paints a picture of a party lacking in professionalism but, though the details are new, the general outline is not. In its leader, The Times notes that "The appeal of Ukip is that of the outsider, the party that dares to tell it as it is, unlike the professional politicians. The cost to Ukip of greater scrutiny looks likely to be that this pretence of superiority starts to fall to pieces." There's another important consequence, too. Ukip's prospects of winning any MPs rest on running an immensely disciplined campaign, and focussing on the top few seats where they may have a viable chance of victory, at the expense of other constituencies. But is such discipline beyond its rag-tag operation? We will learn more when Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin's new book, 'Revolt on the Right' is released on Wednesday.
LABOUR HELP YOUNG BY ATTACKING PENSIONERS
Labour have confirmed that it intends to offer a youth jobs guarantee for the whole of the next Parliament, whereby anyone under-25 out of work for a year would be given a "starter job", or face losing their benefits. Only it's not quite as simple as that. The flip side is that, in future, those earning over £150,000 would get only 20 per cent tax relief on pension contributions, compared with the 45 per cent now, undermining incentives to save. Both the Mail and us say that it amounts to a raid on pensioners. Given their propensity to vote - and the reluctance of the young to do so, as Tim Wigmore explains - is that a smart electoral move?
HAVE THE GOVES OVERREACHED THEMSELVES?
Libby Purves uses her Times column to attack Sarah Vine's "gracelessly political" explanation for sending her daughter to state schools; Peter Hitchens attacked the Goves in similar terms yesterday. Libby says that the school the Education Secretary's daughter is going to is an "Anglican Hogwarts" and "an impossible mirage for families across the land staring glumly at the much lesser school to which a tortuous entry system has condemned their equally beloved child." The worry for the Goves is they are receiving some critical press from papers that have normally been very supportive: have they overreached themselves? Meanwhile the Mail confirms what we already knew: the Camerons are planning to send daughter Nancy, who begins secondary school in September 2015, to a state secondary. A friend of Samantha's says: "Being in a state school is a nice antidote to that. You get to meet normal children from normal houses whose fathers don’t go off and spend the weekend with Angela Merkel. The children can be socially fluid."
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE 40p RATE?
There has been a lot of chatter about doing something about the 40p rate ensraing ever-more taxpayers. The latest idea comes from Renewal's David Skelton, who uses his Telegraph column to propose scrapping the 40p tax altogether, funded by lowering the threshold at which the 45p rate begins to £62,000. Those earning £85,000 or less would be better off under the changes, but someone earning £150,000 would be £2,400 worse off. Solving one problem could simply create another.
HAGUE WARNS PUTIN
William Hague has warned Vladimir Putin that there is a "real danger of a shooting conflict" if Russian forces invade Eastern Ukraine. The Sun gives the Foreign Secretary's words a cracking write-up, under the headline "Charge of the Lightweight Brigade". It's also worth noting Ed Davey admitting that energy prices could be ramped up if the crisis in Ukraine deepens. If it's not too mischevious to ask, what would then happen to Labour's pledge of an energy price freeze?MAIL v PICKLES
The Mail doesn't seem to like Eric Pickles very much: it again takes the attack to the Local Government Secretary for his broken promises on bin collections - over five million families have lost their weekly collections since the Coalition began, it exclaims. Its leader suggests that the failure of Mr Pickles to match his bluster is a reason why "so many have come to believe voting is pointless". Ouch.
ZERO HOUR CONTRACTS BALLOONThe number of people on zero-hours contracts has trebled since 2010, and is now 583,000: the story is the splash in the Guardian. As expected, Labour, led by Chuka Umunna, is on the attack. But Vince Cable launches a defence of the Government's actions: "While Labour sat on their hands for 13 years and did nothing about it, we're doing something about it. The government's consultation closes this Friday and I'd urge union, employers and employees to respond so we can sort this problem out."
BROWN BATS FOR UNIONGordon Brown breaks his silence over Scottish independence today. In a speech in Glasgow this morning, he advocates rewriting the British constitution to give binding protection to an empower Scottish parliament, which would have freedom to determine its own welfare and tax policies. The thinking is that these ideas would undermine Alex Salmond's claims that Scotland is ruled by a Government it didn't vote for: "With these changes, we bury for good the idea that Westminster enjoys undivided sovereignty over the country", Mr Brown will say.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll: Con 32%, Lab 39%, Ukip 14%; Lib Dems 10%
TWEETS AND TWITS
No #curseofcameron this time?
@David_Cameron: Great job by Jade Etherington too - winning her second medal. #GoParalympicsGB
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
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THE AGENDAThis morning GLASGOW: Gordon Brown gives speech on Scottish independence, arguing for more devolution.
1000 EDINBURGH: Sir Menzies Campbell launches report on constitutional change. The Scottish Liberal Democrats publish the Campbell II report, the next step in their plans for more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Sir Menzies will set out the recommendations of the report at a press conference with Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie. Raeburn Room, Old College, University of Edinburgh
1800 LONDON: Renewal thinktank launches its Budget proposals, with speech by Robert Halfon. The Old Star, 66 Broadway, SW1H 1DB
Good morning. Here's a prediction. Ministers will spend today and tomorrow fending off questions about their domestic employees - nannies, au pairs, cleaners, builders, plumbers - specifically their nationality. Newsdesks across the land will be trying to find out how many members of the government are part of the "wealthy metropolitan elite" driving up immigration. David Cameron's spokesman stonewalled a series of questions about his foreign nanny yesterday, while Nick Clegg admitted to employing a Belgian. Presumably there will be others, since all the home roles that are most commonly contracted out are dominated, in London at least, by foreign workers. Imagine the sport if the questioning extends from nationality to immigration status or even - whisper it - tax arrangements. Don't be surprised if in coming days we see newspaper audits of ministerial reliance on migrant labour. Mr Brokenshire, new to his job, will doubtless be wondering today whether he has got off to the start he wanted or whether, as Dan Hodges argued yesterday, "with that single ministerial intervention he is already able to claim the prize for most stupid, intellectually bankrupt and vacuous address of the year".
The Times has piled in - "Ministers are told come clean about use of migrant home help". Stick to the facts, our leader says this morning, while Jeremy Warner makes the important argument that "we should celebrate our migrants as an affirmation of all that's decent about Britain, rather than seek to denigrate them". Mr Brokenshire has perhaps done us a favour, by saying something so provocative about immigration - provocative in that it pokes the elite, his colleagues, and confronts them with their reliance on foreign labour - that work can begin on getting Mr Cameron off his pledge to reduce net migration to below 100,000 (a Tory friend - definitely not a friend of Dave - told me last night that he thought the pledge was inherited from David Davis - imagine if No10 tries blaming him...) The latest numbers show Mr Cameron is nowhere near delivering on it and surely now, with a year to go to the election, thought must be being given to how to get the Tories off that hook. There are plenty of voices around the Cabinet table - in the Treasury for example - and elsewhere (Boris, for one) who are happy to make a case for the value of migrant workers. No10 was making it yesterday to justify Mr Cameron's use of foreign nannies for his children. The next step is to argue, as Jeremy does, that Britain thrives by welcoming those with the get-up and go to try their luck somewhere else. And perhaps to have the courage to say that what Britain would rather not welcome, to put it bluntly, are illiterates from feudal societies with a taste for barbaric "cultural" practices. The immigration debate is a mess because the Tory pledge is proving to be undeliverable, No10 is in a tailspin of panic about Ukip, and our model for economic growth relies on Britain's economic openness. It may be though that Mr Brokenshire's intervention, by infuriating his colleagues and shining a light on the relationship between ministers and migrants, has unwittingly opened the way for the issues to be addressed.
AUSTERITY FOR ALL
There's a sobering story on the front page of the FT. The paper has replicated the models of the OBR, and it's not pretty stuff: there's a black hole of over £20 billion in the public finances because, even if the economy is going gangbusters, the capacity for future economic growth has declined. Twelve days until budget day, it's news that George Osborne could have done without and makes it more difficult for the Conservatives to eliminate the deficit by spending cuts alone while committing to completely protecting some departments. But it should hardly be welcomed by Labour either. The top of the party is debating whether to be radical in its manifesto, believing that it still has to convince voters that it represents genuine change and, as a Shadow Cabinet member puts it, "We will not lose the election by being too Left wing", or "shrink the offer" and not be too ambitious. The OBR's news may make a radical pitch more difficult, not least by exposing as a delusion that austerity can be completed simply by squeezing the rich and scrapping Winter Fuel Allowance for the richest 5% of pensioners. And, if Ed Miliband does become PM, is Labour ready for the hard choices that will have to be faced in office?
NOT CLAPPED-OUT JUST YET
A common refrain among MPs at the moment is : "there's nothing going on in here". Members arrive in Westminster on Monday night or even Tuesday morning, and are gone by Thursday afternoon. To the shadow Commons leader Angela Eagle, this all shows that the Government is "clapped-out" and has "run out of steam". Oliver Letwin is trying to counter that view; he said yesterday that the last Queen's Speech, scheduled for June 3, would include "a very full, very serious" list of legislation. A tax-free childcare scheme will be central to the programme; pensions will be overhauled; and the Recall Bill, long assumed to have died a slow death, will be included. Michael Gove has been praised by supporters of recall as its big champion in the Cabinet.
HALFON LIKENS UKIP TO 'NAZIS'
Robert Halfon sticks it to Ukip in an interview with The House magazine. The Conservatives' favourite backbencher says that Ukip has done the Tories an "enormous favour" by "cleansing" the party of members with distasteful views. Mr Halfon doesn't hold back: "To me there are two kinds of UKIP - the Godfrey Bloom guy who's like a cross between Sid James and Bernard Manning, and then there's a much more sinister element, like the MEP who said every Muslim has got to sign a declaration of non-violence, which to me is literally akin to the Nazis saying Jews should wear a yellow star." Is this a new sign that the Conservatives are attacking Ukip head on? And, more pertinently, does the intervention make 'Tory defectors' who now support Ukip any more likely to return to the fold?
OWN GOAL FOR GOVE
Michael Gove notched up an own goal, as The Times puts it, after praising one independent school by comparing it unflatteringly with a rival. On a visit to Highgate, Mr Gove said that University College School "might think it’s special but the glittering trophies go to Highgate. I can tell I’ve just lost about half the audience, but the right half to lose." An annoyed pupil at UCS, who obviously can't take a joke, has written an open letter to the Education Secretary: "I am saddened to see a man of your position and influence orchestrating a personal attack on a school, and student body, in the name of humour."ANYONE ARRESTED TODAY?
After No 10 kept quiet or the police investigation and resignation of Patrick Rock, the press is determined not to let it happen again. A Westminster sourcetells Ephraim Hardcastle: "Now the PM’s official spokesman is asked daily if anyone from No 10 has resigned or been arrested in the last 24 hours."
NO RESOLUTION IN UKRAINE CRISIS
The latest on the Ukraine crisis is that Barack Obama has held an hour-long phone call with Vladimir Putin urging Russian forces to return to their bases, but the calls apparently fell on deaf ears. Meanwhile, America will deploy 12 F-16 fighters to Poland next week as part of an expanded military training exercise. The Mail reports that a senior official in London has accused the EU of "appeasement" as Crimea's Parliament agreed to hold a referendum on joining Russia on March 16. You can keep up to date with developments on our live blog.
SELFIE-GATEThe papers lay into Dave for that selfie on Twitter accompanied by the caption: "I've been speaking to @BarackObama about the situation in Ukraine. We are united in condemnation of Russia's actions." The Mail acidly remarks that "The backlash once again reminds Mr Cameron of his infamous warning that 'too many tweets might make a t***'." The PM doesn't get off any lighter in The Sun, which says that Dave "was mercilessly mocked on Twitter last night for posting a cringeworthy photo of himself on the phone to Barack Obama."
DANNY'S PENSIONS WARNINGDanny Alexander uses a speech in Edinburgh today to warn that Scottish households would see the cost of pensions rise if they voted for independence and it would "open the floodgates" to uncertainty on currency, rates and regulations; the FT has a comprehensive preview. The paper also reports ondivisions within Scottish Labour over further devolution in the event of a "No" vote; "There is this idea that somehow giving freedom over income tax is some kind of magic bullet," warns a Labour MP. "It is a zero-sum game to try to out-nationalise the nationalists."
The Morning Briefing is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll: Con 31%, Lab 40%, Ukip 13%; Lib Dems 9%
TWEETS AND TWITS
Wish him luck:
@MarkSpencerMP: Looking forward to a grilling this morning by yr 8s @DukeriesAcademy in #ollerton this morning
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Dan Hodges - James Brokenshire’s thesis: ‘Immigration is out of control, and it’s all your fault, voters’
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THE AGENDA0915 LONDON: Lawyers from across the country to march on Westminster in protest against legal aid cuts.
0930 EDINBURGH: Salmond chairs economic advisers meeting. First Minister Alex Salmond will chair a meeting of his Council of Economic Advisors. Bute House, Charlotte Square.
1100 LONDON: European Commission Foreign Affairs High Representative Baroness Ashton in conversation about women in public life. Institute for Government 2 Carlton Gardens
1830 YORK: Liberal Democrats Spring Conference. York Barbican.
Good morning. Another Coalition row - stage-managed though it may be - has broken out, and immigration is the reason why. Our front page - "Middle class blamed for migration" - gives a preview of James Brokenshire's speech today. The new immigration minister will say that a "wealthy metropolitan elite" of middle-class households has supported mass immigration to Britain by demanding cheap labour and services but "ordinary, hard-working people" have not benefited. People will ask whether Mr Brokenshire is having a go at Mark Harper. But it's also another attempt to rebrand the Conservatives as the "workers' party". As ever, Ukip is central to Tory thinking: polls show that Nigel Farage's party has been especially good at attracting elderely male working-class voters away from the Tories. Mr Brokenshire will express his dismay over the recent increase in net migration to above 200,000: "Some have tried to claim that this rapid increase is somehow 'good’ for the country. Well, just like the Home Secretary, I disagree." The trouble is there are several in the Cabinet - and not only Lib Dems - who think differently. Immigration is seen as facilitating growth rather than undermining it; in clash between immigration and growth, the latter wins out. Blaming the middle class, as Mr Brokenshire does, can't get round the reality that there is no chance of Dave's "tens of thousands" net migration target being met. Harping on about it risks drawing attention to this failure.
As ever now, differentiation lurks just beneath the surface; The Times reportnotes that "The public row over immigration is one of the clearest signs to date that the Lib Dems and the Tories are attempting to appeal to their traditional supporters before the European elections in May." In a neat coincidence, Vince Cable is also giving a speech on immigration today. Mr Cable naturally takes a different view, and will say that he is "intensely relaxed" about large-scale migration, as long as "they pay their taxes and pay their way". Mr Cable warns: "Bear down on immigrants, and you lose some of the most dynamic, innovative and imaginative workers in your economy."
CLEGG v FARAGE
It's definitely on. Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will have an hour-long debate on Britain's future in Europe at 7pm on Wednesday, 2 April, live on BBC Two; the clash will be hosted by David Dimbleby. "Clash of the middleweights" we call it. The BBC says that it will employ opinion pollsters to select a "demographically representative" sample of the population for the live audience. Expect grumblings over the method of selecting the studio audience, who will be allowed to put questions to the leaders. The FT analyses why the two are debating: "By unashamedly campaigning as a pro-European party, albeit with a reform agenda, Mr Clegg’s team hopes he can attract the votes of some of the 35-40 per cent of the electorate who say they want to stay in the EU." The Tories will be cheering Mr Clegg on, hoping that a good performance may peel votes away from Labour, and held to persuade Tories who have deserted to Ukip to return to the Conservative fold. Ladbrokes makes Mr Clegg 8/11 favourite to win the debate. There is also another, more lightly moderated, debate that will be held on LBC Radio.
SHELL WANTS UNION TO LASTAnother business voice is warning of the risks of Scottish independence. Shell have said that they want Scotland to remain in the UK, with CEO Ben van Beurden saying that he valued the "continuity and stability" of the UK. Mr van Beurden also said that he wanted the UK to stay "inside the EU". Are those who support the Union but oppose EU membership storing up problems by relying on business voices to make the case for Scotland rejecting independence?
LABOUR'S CASH CRISIS
This is why Labour is in such need of Mr Tony's cash. Unite has slashed its funding to Labour by 50%, a fall of £1.5 million, according to the Mail. The Tories are now seizing on the suggestion that Len McCluskey's power could be increasing, with the remainder of Unite's political fund now in the hands of "union barons" like Mr McCluskey, as Grant Shapps said.
SAMANTHA TURNS UP AT PMQS
The parliamentary sketch writers pick up on Samantha Cameron's appearance in the small downstairs VIP gallery during PMQs - only the second time that she has been in attendance since Dave became PM. Quentin Letts recounts the moment when Dave spotted her: "His eyes scoured the distance. Spotting her – strike up the theme to Love Story – he fought his way through the throng to go and devour her with his eyes. It was like when Pat Cash won Wimbledon." If there is a wider significance, it's perhaps that CCHQ recognise that Mrs Cameron is an asset to her husband, especially with female voters.
WEEKLY BIN COLLECTIONS AREN'T COMING BACK
Eric Pickles yesterday admitted defeat in his attempts to bring back weekly bin collections. Mr Pickles once described these as a "fundamental right" but admitted that "It is a matter for local authorities." The Mail isn't impressed, noting that "the proportion of councils operating collections every other week has increased from 57 per cent in 2010 to 69 per cent last year."
DAVE AND HIS CHUMOCRACY
Mercifully for the Tories, the coverage of Patrick Rock is kept well away from the front pages: it's on page 19 of The Times, for insance. But the article raises some awkward questions, with a parlianentary aide by Francis Maude last November revealing that five formal harassment complaints had been submitted over the previous five years, but none had resuled in disciplinary action. Sue Cameron explains that the accusations of a cover-up over Mr Rock touch on Dave's reliance on his "chumocracy": "The trouble for those in No 10 is that they have become so close to each other that they don’t realise the impression they will make on the outside world. In Mr Rock’s case, a separate complaint from a civil servant was dealt with by Ed Llewellyn, Mr Cameron’s chief of staff and another Old Etonian chum. Again, there is no reason to think it wasn’t all above board, but it looks bad."
The Morning Briefing is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll: Con 34%, Lab 37%, Ukip 11%; Lib Dems 10%
TWEETS AND TWITS
Disaster!
@Mike_Fabricant: Shock! From 7pm until 11pm I was out of contact. The battery on my BlackBerry went flat and I wasn't near my PC or iPad. I felt naked!
BEST COMMENT
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Stephen Glover - What a hypocrite Red Ed will be if he takes cash from the tainted pockets of tyrants' pal
THE AGENDA1030 Theresa May to give Commons statement on allegations of police corruption relating to Stephen Lawrence murder
1100 James Brokenshire gives his first big speech since becoming immigration minister
Evening Vince Cable immigration speech, Mansion House
Good morning. The arrest of Patrick Rock has been turned into a political scandal, if we are to judge by the headlines and the cast of characters joining the story. It's not just the splash in the Mail - "Why did No10 cover up aides's child porn arrest" - but there's also a big puff for Littlejohn's latest "Do we really want to live in a land where Downing Street officials are arrested in secret?" The cover-up claim is on the front of the Telegraph and the Mirror as well, and the story gets plenty of play inside the other papers. Ominously for No10, Tom Watson and John Mann have taken it up, which suggests Labour is about to weaponise the story. The next stage, presumably, will be calls for an independent inquiry. Two issues are being scrutinised: first, the delay between Mr Rock's arrest on February 13 and the news emerging on Tuesday night; second, the idea that he was somehow tipped off about his imminent arrest to allow him to resign, as suggested in the Guardian.
Westminster loves this kind of personality-driven who did what when tale. There are some themes worth pursuing, not least how it got out (including the name of the civil servant involved in the sexual harassment angle, which the Mail has but isn't publishing), having been kept secret for three weeks. The Mail is pressing the secrecy angle with vigour: should a statement be made every time someone is arrested? There is also the chumocracy aspect - the Times uses the term. Consider the Mail's p1 puff: it describes Mr Rock as an "official". But the point of course is that he isn't: he's a special adviser, not a civil servant, and there will be plenty who will wonder whether Number 10 would have offered a civil servant caught in similar circumstances the same discretion, or whether he would have been immediately thrown to the wolves.
Downing Street is irritated by the suggestion of a cover-up and incandescent about Labour's opportunistic involvement. We should point out that we don't actually know much about the case against Mr Rock, how it emerged, who is involved, what the police have uncovered or what the police are demanding. No10 appears to have moved swiftly to put in the hands of the NCA and leave it to them. Drawing immediate conclusions based on a vague timetable is high risk, and should be avoided. In Number 10 they reckon they can't win on this one, because as long as there is a fact vacuum, Westminster will fill it. The Tory view is that there is something distasteful about the way Labour have piled in so soon after their own troubles with the PIE allegations against Harriet Harman & Co. "For them to be behaving like this so soon after their pedophile business is a bit rich," one tells me. As this develops it's worth remembering that we don't know much, that Mr Rock hasn't been charged, and that the actors rushing onto this stage are all playing parts that aren't necessarily innocent or motivated by independent inquiry.
UKRAINE CRISIS LATEST
In the last few hours, President Obama has said that he does not view Vladimir Putin as "unhinged" and said that compromise remains an option: "We may be able to deescalate over the next several days and weeks, but it’s a serious situation and we’re spending a lot of time on it." US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are due to hold talks today - their meeting, in Lebanon, was long planned, but Ukraine will now inevitably dominate. Nato and Russia will also hold talks in Brussels, while EU foreign policy chief Baroness Ashton is having talks with the new government in Kiev. After William Hague's statement in the Commons yesterday that the UK Government was working to improve relations with Russia, I argued that "Mr Cameron must persuade us why his policy of constructive engagement with a bully is in the national interest" in my blog. Con Coughlin argues that the Government is paying the price of cuts in defence spending: "Without the "big stick" of a military capability at his disposal, no one is going to take Mr Cameron seriously, even if he is softly spoken." Simon Jenkins says that "Ukraine has revealed the new world of western impotence".
COALITION AT WAR - SORT OFThe Coalition partners have descended into another public row, with Nick Clegg attacking the Tories' "brass neck" and saying there had been "very hostile" Coalition clashes over tax policy. Mr Clegg and David Laws were among the Lib Dems angry at George Osborne's attempts to incorporate an EU referendum Bill in the Queen's speech. It gets a decent pick-up, even with all the coverage of Ukraine - "Coalition's public rows over tax and Europe" is our headline; the FT says "Osborne plea for EU bill stokes coalition tensions"; the Times says "Coalition argues over Budget and Europe". But, as ever, there's a certain stage-managed element to it all: the Tories posture, the Lib Dems get cross, and everyone is happy. It's not just about the long march to the general election - both parties face a difficult European election. For all the focus on the Tories, the Lib Dems risk coming fifth, behind the Greens - the party will calculate that every "row" before polling day will make that less likely.
LABOUR'S KNIGHT IN SHINING ARMOUR
An old friend has come to Labour's rescue. Yep, that's right, Mr Tony. The former PM is reportedly in touch with Labour about making a "large donation" to help fill a gap in the party's finances as the unions prepare to reduce their funding. But the significance is that it would assuage doubts over who Mr Tony will support at the next election - some Tories had been hoping that he would back the party or, more likely, give a pointed silence.
FARAGE'S DODGY DONOR QUESTION
The FT has a very uncomfortable story for Nigel Farage. It reports that the Ukip leader appeared in a Youtube video telling Brussels not to legislate against e-cigarettes after Ukip received £25,000 from Pillbox 38, the company behind a brand of e-cigarettes. As the report notes, it's all very problematic, because it raises questions about the impact of donations on Ukip's policies. It also sheds some light on the party's financial problems: since 2010, Ukip supporters have pledged a total of £2.5m, compared with £87m received by the Tories and £63m by Labour. Even the Lib Dems have received £16.7m. Paul Sykes has pledged £1.4m to the party, but Neil Hamilton has complainedthat Ukip had still not "seen the colour of his (Sykes’s) money".
MIGRATION SITUATION
Last night's Newsnight reported that the Government was withholding publication of a report suggesting that the number of UK workers unemployed due to migration is much less than previously thought. We have heard something similar in the past: in January, it was reported that a report on EU migration had been shelved until after the European elections, after Theresa May had failed to make the case for imposing tighter curbs on immigrants. It is hard to escape the feeling that the Government is weary of anything that might make them look soft on immigration. On Today, Nigel Farage insisted "There's no doubt British people have lost their jobs because there is too much labour coming into the market" and said that "The Eurozone is doing so badly that we now run the risk of an unparalleled number of workers coming into the UK."
THE STATE SCHOOL CHAMPION
Sarah Vine explains in her Mail column why her and Michael Gove "believe that at state school Beatrice will receive a far more comprehensive education — in every sense of the phrase — than at any private establishment." The Guardian notes the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders' Brian Lightman's support for the decision: "We congratulate the secretary of state and his family on their choice. This is a further sign that our state schools are in excellent health". Politically, the effect could be to take the sting out of Labour's constant attacks that Mr Gove is "talking down" state education.
SO MUCH FOR DAVE'S WOMEN PROBLEM
Lord Aschroft has popped up with another truth-seeking poll. Predictably, all three party leaders come out of it badly: the most common word used to describe David Cameron is "posh"; the most common description of Ed Miliband is "weak" - which is the same as for Nick Clegg. The report also says talk of Dave's "women problem" is nonsense after the majority of Ukip defectors have been men: "It is not women who have a problem with the Conservatives, it is voters." As Lord Ashcroft said in an earlier report, it's time to "Smell the coffee".
CALLS FOR ACTION ON THE 40P TAX
The Mail takes the attack to Dave for his failure to act on the creep of the 40p rate, with Kwasi Kwarteng identifying it as a priority in the Budget - we can assume that the 36 Tory MPs in the Free Enterprise Group are inclined to agree. Our leader also calls for the PM to recognise the problem of fiscal drag before the next election. This could get decidedly awkward for Dave: with a fortnight to go until the Budget, a theme is emerging that backbench critics will need no encouragement to latch onto. Will the Conservative leadership show any sign of responding?
The Morning Briefing is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll: Con 34%, Lab 38%, Ukip 13%; Lib Dems 9%
TWEETS AND TWITS
Clinate change worries us all:
@thomasbrake: Why be a politician? To have influence over some of the biggest challenges we face today, such as clinate change.
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Con Coughlin - Britain reduced to shaking a weedy fist at Vladimir Putin
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THE AGENDA0930 OECD officials give evidence to Commons Education Committee on academies and free schools
12 PMQs
Good morning. Boris Johnson addressed Tory MPs and candidates in London last night, at the invitation of Grant Shapps. His pep talk urged them to campaign hard in the May elections. He talked of Wellington at Waterloo - appropriately, for next year, that near run thing - and urged them to "join me on the barricades for an outright victory in 2015". His rallying cry referenced all the messages Downing Street is pushing - Miliband is a return to old Labour, no mansion tax, a vote for Ukip is a vote for Miliband. Given that David Cameron and George Osborne want Boris back for the big push next year, it was appropriate that he was doing what he does best. Come to think of it, It might be worth finding out what those present thought of him. Did they see a future leader, I wonder?
Boris is in the news because No10 and No11 have put him there, for reasons that aren't immediately obvious. I've written about what it all means in my column. The story kicked off in the Times on Saturday and ramped up by the MoS splash rumbles on in several papers. Boris' appearance on LBC yesterday kept it going: he left open the possibility that he will stand for a seat next year (I believe he will) but said "he was going to expire" if the speculation continued much more. From the conversations I had yesterday it's clear Cabinet ministers are uneasy about what they suspect is mischief orchestrated by George Osborne and Michael Gove. It's seen to be part of manoeuvrings by the Chancellor to promote his chances of succeeding David Cameron. MPs are discussing, for example, a meeting organised by the No10 adviser John Hayes during which Mr Osborne made a point of singling out his various proteges who have been appointed to ministerial jobs - "the implication was that he can reward those who help him", one of those present tells me. Of course, Team Boris are just s capable of naughtiness - they have been suggesting, for example, the Mr Osborne has taken to colouring his hair to over an incipient bald patch. Honestly…
Where does all this leave things? Don't underestimate the possibility that a friendly rivalry at the top of the party could become bad tempered and quite nasty. The weekend's events have left the Boris camp bruised and frustrated because they believe their man has been on best behaviour and has done nothing to justify being targeted by Mr Osborne. They are particularly angry with Michael Gove for briefing the Murdoch papers against Boris. How angry? One compared the Osborne/Gove combine to Gordon Brown and Damian McBride. "George is becoming increasingly like Brown, using his power to attack anyone in his way," I was told. That's strong stuff, and bodes ill for the next 15 months. Instead of concentrating on winning the next election, there is a chance that the party high-ups could find themselves in an unedifying scrap for control of the party after a defeat.
UKRAINE CRISIS LATEST
The Ukraine crisis has understandably been dominating the airwaves this morning. In the papers, the Mail's focus is on Hugh Powell's blunder, as the deputy national security adviser unintentionally revealed that Britain will not impose economic sanctions or impose military action against Russia: it's an embarrassment the Government can ill afford. The Guardian examines the economic dimension to this all: "Like other EU countries, and especially Germany, which obtains almost 40% of its gas and oil from Russia, the UK is reluctant to adopt measures that could damage its still fragile economic recovery." In the FT, the Government denies putting the City at risk through its actions. But Liam Halligan warns that Vladimir Putin won't be worried by the threat of sanctions. Lord Ashdown yesterday warned that the situation is "very dangerous" and "a mistake away from conflict", as you can watch in our video.
TORY AIDE RESIGNS
Patrick Rock, who has known David Cameron for 20 years, has resigned as a special adviser after being arrested by the police on suspicion of offences relating to child pornography. Mr Rock, 62, has worked for the Conservatives since the days of Margaret Thatcher. He famously coined the phrase "cows moo, dogs bark, Labour puts up taxes". And on the day John Smith died he went for a pint in the Two Chairmen with the other special adviser at the Home Office, and recalled later, "We both agreed that Blair coming meant that we [Conservatives] would be f****d." Here's what I wrote when he returned to No10 in 2011.
DAVE THE TAX-CUTTER
The Prime Minister's desire to return "every penny" that can be put from public services to the voters through tax cuts makes our front page. In a speech in the West Midlands today, Mr Cameron will try to link his tax-cutting aims to a moral policy: "Do we really want to be the ones who responded to a crisis by putting off tomorrow what we had to do today? Can we really teach our children the importance of being responsible and at the same time shirk the most fundamental responsibility of all?" It can be seen as part of the long general election campaign. The Conservative hope is that promising tax cuts will pressurise Labour to sketch out their position, leaving them vulnerable to being attacked for promising to borrow more - or, if they match the Tory plans, face a revolt on the Left.
NICK PREPARES FOR COALITION, MK 2
The Indy has a useful piece on Nick Clegg's plans for a second coalition government. It reports: "Danny Alexander, the Chief Treasury Secretary, will head the team planning talks with other parties in a 'balanced parliament'. The other members are David Laws, the Schools Minister who is in charge of the Lib Dem manifesto; Baroness (Sal) Brinton; Lynne Featherstone, the International Development Minister and Steve Webb, the Pensions Minister." Will the presence of both Mr Alexander and Mr Laws, lead to Lib Dems murmuring that the team appears ideologically closer to the Tories than Labour?
OFCOM BACKS UKIP
A quietly significant story: OfCom has said that Ukip should be treated as a "major party" in the run-up to the European elections. This means that Ukip will be granted the same number of party election broadcasts as Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, and its views should be given "due weight" in news programmes. It amounts to a significant boost for Ukip ahead of the European elections. The really significant question remains: will Ukip be included in any TV debates before the general election? OfCom's ruling makes that more likely.
GOVE GOES DOWN STATE SCHOOL ROUTE
Michael Gove's daughter Beatrice will attend a state secondary school. Beatrice,10, has secured a place at Grey Coat Hospital School which is a short walk from the Palace of Westminster. It is said Mr Gove is the first Tory education secretary to send a child to a state secondary. Next year the focus will fall on David Cameron and his choice for his daughter - just in time for the election.
UMUNNA'S 2030 VISION
Chuka Umunna is giving a speech to 8.30 this evening to launch Labour's Agenda 2030, a plan for long-term balanced growth. Much of the emphasis is on skills - Mr Umunna will argue that young people should study maths and English to the age of 18 and that all apprenticeships last for two years and are at level three. There are also calls for a cross-government industrial strategy and the creation of a British Small Business Administration.
LABOUR'S WELSH QUESTIONS
Worth noting Charlotte Leslie's piece for Coffee House. As shown by Ms Leslie's question about the NHS in Wales at PMQs last week, the Conservatives plan to make attacking Labour's record in Wales a big part of the general election campaign. The question is: why does this task seem to have been assigned to Ms Leslie, the MP for Bristol North West, rather than one of the Tories' eight Welsh MPs?
The Morning Briefing is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll: Con 32%, Lab 41%, Ukip 12%; Lib Dems 8%
TWEETS AND TWITS
Poor Stella:
@stellacreasy: Walking to work & go past neighbours kid-says having 5 pancakes & chocolate spread today & I am not invited. Some things never change..
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Benedict Brogan - George Osborne’s intrigues against Boris are a sign of Tory panic
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THE AGENDA0930: Bank of England deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe gives evidence to House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.
1015 London: EEF Manufacturing Conference, with speeches by Vince Cable and Kenneth Clarke.
Lunchtime West Midlands: David Cameron speech on the economy
Breaking News: William Hague has been speaking on the Today programme about the crisis in the Ukraine, which the Foreign Secretary described as "certainly the biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st Century."
Mr Hague said that "If Russia continues on this course, we have to be clear this is not an acceptable way to conduct international relations" and that "This clearly is a violation of the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine." The Foreign Secretary added that "Ukraine presents no threat to its neighbours. There is no justification whatsoever for the action that has been taken" and said "I won't accept comparisons with Iraq."
IS BRITAIN NOW A BYSTANDER ON THE WORLD STAGE?
Good morning. The prospect of war in Ukraine dominates politics today. It's across all the front pages, including the red tops. "New Cold War" for The Mirror, while The Sun has "Come 'n have a go if EU think you're hard enough" next to a picture of a topless Putin. Two overnight developments to highlight: the Americans confirm that what the FT calls the "creeping invasion" is complete - Russia now controls the Crimean peninsula; and the markets hate it: in Moscow stocks have slumped 10pc, and so has the rouble, prompting the Russian central bank to jack up interest rates. John Kerry, along with William Hague, will be pursuing diplomacy in Kiev. Will they go on to Moscow?
To understand what's going on, start with our own David Blair, who has been tracking the story from Kiev. His take is that the partition of Ukraine is the unintended consequence of a popular uprising for democracy. Our leader calls for governments to stand up to "Putin the bully". Dominic Lawson too has a coruscating column in the Mail on Putin's bluster, and urges economic punishment as the most effective weapon (the reaction of the markets in Moscow proves his point). Also in the Mail Ed Lucas, who is consistent critic of Mr Putin, looks at Crimea's "blood soaked" history. The Guardian and others record that David Cameron has ruled that ministers - and the Earl of Wessex - will not attend the paralympics in Sochi, while preparations for the G8 have been put on hold. The Mail has zeroed in on the row over comments from Sajid Javid, the Treasury minisster, who said there was "a direct link between Miliband's cynical vote against [the] Syria motion and Russia's actions on Ukraine". Labour have gone tonto in reply, as you'd expect. But the point is an interesting one: to what extent has western, and specifically British, appeasement strengthened Putin's hand?
It's worth considering the history. Britain fell out with Moscow over the murder by polonium of Litvinenko. That was blamed on the FSB, Mr Putin's old employers. For several years relations were in the deep freeze. Mr Cameron picked up the theme when he publicly backed Georgia against the Russians during that brief war. But since then, and in particular in the past year, London has been much more accommodating to Mr Putin, prompting some to suspect that the Government's policy of seeking foreign cash to invest in the UK is leading it, as with China, to look the other way when it comes to dealing with dictators. It remains telling, however eloquent Mr Hague is today, that Britain is largely absent from this crisis. The US, France and Germany have been more active. Ukraine is ominous, but even more troubling is the impression that Britain is increasingly a bystander on the world stage. Expect that question to be asked with ever greater frequency.
BORIS v GEORGE
The battle to succeed Dave is stepping up, after claims that George Osborne was engaged in a 'dirty tricks' campaign to thwart Boris Johnson's hopes of becoming Tory leader; the Mayor of London allegedly responded to claims that Mr Osborne had approached him about standing as a parliamentarycandidate with the words: "Bull****! There has been no such conversation. They are trying to tie me in." Mr Johnson's team deny the words attributed to him, and the claims of a dispute with the Chancellor.
By offering the Mayor a prominent role in the Tory election campaign, the thinking is that Boris would sink or swim with the success of it; so if the Conservatives lost, Boris would be weakened as much as Mr Osborne. Tim Montgomerie analyses the developments in his column, and highlights the role the Mr Osborne "most loyal lieutenant" Michael Gove could play in the succession: "The Education Secretary is honest when he says he does not want to be leader himself but one notion is that he becomes Osborne’s running mate. He is already using private gatherings to big up the Chancellor and talk down London’s Mayor." Peter McKay has some advice for Boris: "They’re expecting him to scheme for the leadership wherever he goes. So jump back into the fray now."
In the current mood every Boris column will be scrutinised for every word; he writes in the Telegraph that "we must be firm to the point of ruthlessness in opposing behaviour that undermines our values. Paedophilia, FGM, Islamic radicalisation – to some extent, at some stage, we have tiptoed round them all for fear of offending this or that minority. It is children who have suffered." Amid all the excitement, the serious point is that the Conservatives cannot afford a leadership campaign to be played out against the backdrop of a general election.
WHO ARE UKIP'S SUPPORTERS?
Nigel Farage has been forced to defend a series of gags about foreigners and Muslims made by the comedian Paul Eastwood at a gala dinner at the end of Ukip's spring conference. The jokes included the performance of Poland at the Olympics - "They took home bronze, silver, gold, lead, copper – anything they could get their hands on"; Somalian pirates - "Team Somalia – they did well, didn’t they? They had to apologise. Didn’t realise sailing and shooting were two different events"; and telling three Asian women they "looked a little bit lost." Meanwhile the FT has a good insight into Ukip support, explaining that "Ukip voters are much more likely than supporters of other parties and than Britain overall to have finished education at secondary school level; the proportion of Ukip voters with higher degrees is half the national average." Perhaps ominously for the Tories, Ukip supporters are over-represented in the Midlands, one of the critical battlegrounds in 2015.TORIES v FISCAL CREEP
George Osborne is under growing pressure to reverse creep and lift people out of the 40p tax threshold, with the suggestion that the starting rate could be raised from £41,450 to £44,000. David Ruffley, a member of the Treasury select committee, says that it could prove a "game changer" for the Conservatives ahead of the general election. Other supporters include Bernard Jenkin, Philip Davies, who described the threshold as "grotesquely unfair", Gerald Howarth, John Redwood and Nick de Bois. In our leader, we say that "The Tories’ compassion towards the low-paid does them credit; but they must also help the already squeezed middle-income families who are being dragged ever further into the taxman’s net."LABOUR WANTS CONTROL OF INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES OVERHAULED
Yvette Cooper will today call for changes to the oversight of British intelligence agencies. In a speech at Demos at 3pm, Ms Cooper will say that "we need major reforms to oversight and a thorough review of the legal framework to keep up with changing technology" and will propose a new strategy to tackle online fraud and stronger action against online child pornography. Ms Cooper is expected to say that there are "fundamental questions about how we sustain both liberty and security in a digital age."
HOLLYWOOD TO FILM IN WESTMINSTER
MPs have given permission for Parliament to be used as a set in a Hollywood film for the first time. The Sun reports that Suffragette, starring Meryl Streep, will be shot inside the Palace of Westminster. Given how quiet Commons business is at the moment, finding time for the filming shouldn't be too tricky.
HAIN WANTS BLOODY SUNDAY AMNESTY
Peter Hain wants British troops involved in the Bloody Sunday killings to be granted amnesty from prosecution. In a piece for The Sunday Telegraph, Mr Hain insists that he has "nothing to hide" and says that "If we are going to draw a line on historic and in all probability fruitless investigations, that must include the pursuit of soldiers involved in Bloody Sunday." But Ruth Dudley Edwards is sceptical, and says that "there's a stench around the secret deal that has been uncovered."
LABOUR'S DASH FOR CASH
Lord Levy has warned that Labour has no choice but to pursue private donors to plug its funding gap. In an intervew with The Times, 'Lord Cashpoint' says that "Does Labour want to do it? I don’t think they’ve got any option. Is it something Ed Miliband is in love with? No, I don’t think it is. Will he have to do it? Yes, I think he will." Lord Levy warns that the Obama-style ambition to get more small-scale donations "has failed and the more stories that come out about politicians and expenses, frankly the less likely it is that members of the public would want to contribute to political parties." On Saturday, the reforms in Labour's relationship with the trade unions passed rather smoothly - indeed, as The Times notes, the changes "seemed to please everyone involved, including the trade unions whose power had apparently been clipped."
IMMIGRATION DENIAL
It would have been much easier to admit defeat, with net migration having risen above 200,000, but Grant Shapps told Marr that there was "still time" for the notorious "tens of thousands" net migration figure to be met. "The pledge is for the end of the Parliament - we are only part way through," Mr Shapps said. "That is still our goal - to bring the numbers down." By denying the now inevitable failure to meet the target, the Conservatives risk it becoming an even bigger issue at the general election.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll: Con 34%, Lab 38%, Ukip 12%; Lib Dems 9%
TWEETS AND TWITS
Better late than never:
@IrrancaDaviesMP: Watching Erin Brockovich for the first time ... what a brilliant film. How did I miss it all these years?
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Boris Johnson - The children taught at home about murder and bombings
David Blair - Ukraine: From triumph to torment
Iain Martin - Labour party internal reform has strengthened Miliband and left the Tories sounding confused
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Peter McKay - Can Boris outsmart scheming George?
Ruth Dudley Edwards - Team Blair and the stench of amorality
Edward Luce - Putin cooks up Obama’s chicken Kiev moment
THE AGENDALIVERPOOL: Green Party conference. St George's Hall
0930 LONDON: Ahead of the 2014 Budget, Conservative MPs from the Free Enterprise Group and experts from the Institute of Economic Affairs and elsewhere will be presenting their ideas on how to consolidate the economic recovery. Speakers include Mark Littlewood, Dr Philip Lee and Kwasi Kwarteng. Institute of Economic Affairs, 2 Lord North Street, Westminster
1500 LONDON: Yvette Cooper speech to Demos thinktank on digital security and privacy. Napier Room, Institute of Mechanical Engineers, One Birdcage Walk
1600 LONDON: London mayor Boris Johnson gives evidence to Commons Communities Committee on fiscal devolution to cities. Wilson Room, Portcullis House
