Friday, 5 July 2013

A question of Labour leadership..

Good morning. A big day ahead, and particularly a big day for Labour and Ed Miliband. Both the Europe vote and the Unite business boil down to a question of leadership. Separate issues, but each in its way focuses our attention on Mr Miliband's qualities. He is now fighting for his legitimacy. He faces an internal challenge from a particular union that shows every sign of running itself as a party within a party, and must now (as his colleagues are saying) show "he won't be pushed around". But that requires decisiveness, not followship. 
Today illustrates how on policy - Europe - and organisation - Falkirk/Unite - Mr Miliband has until now allowed others to call the tune. David Cameron has herded Labour towards a potentially dangerous position on the EU referendum. No wonder Ian Austin and other politically savvy types are hinting at an amendment to James Wharton's Bill that would force a vote before 2015. In the same way Unite has taken advantage of Mr Miliband's hands-off attitude to internal matters, and his reliance on union finance, to advance its interests. The result is an insurgency, a Blairite reaction, and a mess. The Tories will milk Labour's neo-Militant tendency for all its worth. Labour MPs will keep a nervous eye on Tom Watson, whose resignation letter has everyone scratching their heads: is that pledge of loyalty worth the paper it's written on? Tony Blair might say not. Lynton Crosby has been saying for months that the public perceive Mr Miliband as weak. Empty opposition benches in the Commons this morning, confusion in the face of Unite's challenge, the overarching impression Labour and Mr Miliband give this Friday is indeed of weakness. He is fighting back, but both confrontations have been forced on him. He has chosen neither the battle nor the ground. A terrible place to start. 
COOKING UP A MESS FOR LABOUR
BOWUFVICIAASkNE 
Dave will take a break from cooking burgers for Tory MPs when he votes for James Wharton's EU referendum Bill today. The Conservatives are targeting Labour's no-show for all it's worth, today launching posters trumpeting that "Only the Conservatives are voting to give you a say" on Europe. In these circumstances the CBI's declaration that a "halfway house" along Norwegian lines wouldn't work for Britain, as the FT (£) reports, can't do much to dampen the Conservative mood.  
WHERE DO LABOUR GO FROM HERE?
The resignation of Tom Watson as general election co-ordinator shows how deep Labour's problems with Unite run; the word "crisis" is widely used to describe the situation in this morning's papers. Mr Watson himself described events in Falkirk as a "mess" in his resignation letter, saying he was no longer "useful" to Ed Miliband. But Mr Miliband might not have been grateful for Mr Watson's comment that "I offered my resignation on Tuesday and you asked me to reconsider." These make it much harder for Mr Miliband to say he acted decisively over the whole affair. Mr Miliband was reluctant to let Mr Watson go because his aggressive brand of politics offered Labour something that the party otherwise largely lacks. Dan Hodges, who called for Mr Watson to go on Tuesday, writes that Mr Miliband's "operation could probably do with a few more fixers and fighters, and few less academics and policy wonks."
Where do Labour go from here? Patrick Wintour writes in The Guardianthat "Miliband now faces a choice between trying to cool the potentially crippling dispute with his biggest financial backer, or instead view the crisis as the opportunity to show leadership and call for a broad recasting of the party-union relationship." His reaction before the summer recess will do much to determine his party's wider prospects in 2015. If he falters then, as Iain Martin writes, the Tories could "Kinnockise" Miliband at the next election. Perhaps the danger for the Conservatives is getting a little over-excited: attacks should be on Unite, rather than trade unions in general, to avoid alienating a pivotal group of voters, as Isabel Hardman observes. 
SMOOTH FIRST WEEK FOR THE GOVERNOR
It's been a busy first week as Governor of the Bank of England for Mark Carney - though staff are told just to address him as "Mark". The FTSE yesterday reacted strongly to Mark's signal that interest rates would remain low for an extended period of time to stimulate growth, comments mirrored by ECB president Mario Draghi. As the FT (£) notes, it's been a smooth start for Mr Carney.  
TRIPLE LOCK GOING NOWHERE
Mr Cameron remains committed to campaigning to keep the triple lock guarantee on pension rises in 2015, according to The Times (£), although further increases in the retirement age are not being ruled out. With Labour and the Lib Dems both considering ditching the triple lock, it's a sign that Dave intends to campaign as the protector of pensioners. 
WE'RE NOT THE TALIBAN
Peter Bone has complained about the "Tory Taliban" jibe used by Angela Eagle in reference to the Alternative Queen's Speech programme. Mr Bone, whose son is serving in Afghanistan, complained about "the extremely offensive remark"; Miss Eagle has not yet issued a response. 
DAVE OPENS A NEW WIND FARM  
If Dave thought he had got his backbenchers back on side, yesterday's trip to Margate probably wasn't very well-advised. Nothing against the Kent seaside town, of course, but Dave's visit to open a new wind farm - “a great win for Kent” - would not have endeared him to the troops, as Michael Deacon notes.  
BACK TO SCHOOL FOR WHITEHALL
The Treasury has a new money-saving device: teach maths. Ministers are concerned that there is a lack of understanding of costs across Whitehall, with some senior officials in the Treasury even not reading spreadsheets,as the FT (£) reports. The Treasury review into Whitehall's financial management will report to George Osborne by the end of the year. School might be out for summer but, for Whitehall, it's only just beginning.
TWEETS AND TWITS 
Nick de Bois is typical of the Conservatives on twitter this morning. Labour had better get used to it:
@nickdebois: Historic day in HoC as private members bill for EU referendum comes to House for 2nd reading.Only Conservatives want to give you a choice 
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph 
Telegraph View - The Falkirk farrago
Best of the rest 
Philip Collins in The Times (£) - Miliband must defeat Labour’s union barons
Philip Stephens in The Financial Times (£) - Coup in Cairo is a rude awakening
Mark Steel in The Independent - You’re not unemployed – you lack self-reliance
THE AGENDA
Today: Vote on James Wharton's EU Referendum Bill

1000: Nigel Farage answers listeners' questions on BBC Radio 5 Live. 
at

Thursday, 4 July 2013

..


at

Labour in union turmoil..

BREAKING NEWS: William Hague has been speaking to the Today programme about the military coup in Egypt, confirming that Britain would recognise the new military regime.
"It's a dangerous precedent - if one president can be deposed by the military so could another in the future.
"We recognise states not governments. We recognise the state of Egypt and we have to work with whoever is in authority... There isn't really a question of not recognising."
"Yes it is wrong. We don't support military interventions in democratic systems... This will now move on very quickly." 
DAVE JUST WANTS TO TALK ABOUT UNITE  
Good morning. Labour's troubles over Unite grow ever greater, with a leaked document claiming that the union have drawn up plans to install its preferred candidates in 41 Commons seats for the next general election. Considering that Unite are Labour's largest donors, it is all rather disastrous for Ed Miliband, exposing Labour's over-reliance on trade unions for financial support: over 80 per cent of their donations since the last election have come from them. Today's news, allied to what we already know about Falkirk and the new accusations in The Times (£) that Labour have hung a Falkirk whistleblower out to dry, all suggest that the unions expect to get something for their cash. 
Mr Miliband has acted decisively enough over Falkirk, but if he thinks he can ride the storm without fundamental steps to prevent something similar happening again, that illusion was shattered by Dave at yesterday's PMQs. Whatever Mr Miliband asked, Dave turned the question back to Unite and Len McCluskey, to the delight of his MPs: I'm not sure I've ever seen them quite so raucous at PMQs. Michael Deacon imagines Dave on Mastermind in this mood:
John Humphrys: “In Shakespeare’s play, who murdered Hamlet’s father?”
David Cameron: “Len McCluskey.” 
John Humphrys: “What is estimated to have killed around half the population of Europe in the 14th century?” 
David Cameron: “The Unite union.”  
Against this backdrop, the last thing Mr Miliband needed was a scene worthy of The Thick of It. But that's what he got, as notes written to help him were left in a Commons toilet by a parliamentary aide and released to the media. These included his defence of Tom Watson: "I'll take Tom Watson over Andy Coulson any day." The Times (£) has the full note. 
MURRAY BEATS THE CURSE OF CAMERON
It could get even worse for Mr Miliband. He knows he must take the fight to Unite, but it's one he would rather not have under two years before the next election. We could be about to witness, as was once said of Denis Healey's fight against Tony Benn for the Labour deputy leadership, a battle for the soul of the Labour Party. As Dan Hodges blogged, "Ed Miliband is now locked into a direct confrontation with the most powerful trade unionist in the Labour movement. It’s a confrontation he cannot afford to lose."   
BOROJuACYAAuY_z 
Andy Murray may have reached the Wimbledon semi-finals, but his real achievement is beating the curse of Cameron. Dave's Twitter messages have cursed Laura Robson, Lewis Hamilton and Mark Cavendish before - not to mention Murray in last year's Wimbledon final. But Dave really tempted fate yesterday, going as far as posting a pic of himself watching the match. 
HS2 SUPPORTERS FIGHT BACK
After Mandy's devastating intervention on HS2 yesterday, Westminster's three main parties have fought back on HS2, as the FT (£) reports. Maria Eagle, gave a “cast-iron guarantee” that Labour would pursue the project if elected after 2015, while Dave said HS2 was "an example of what we need to do to equip us to succeed in the global race, secure economic prosperity, rebalance the economy and support tens of thousands of jobs." Clive Betts, the Labour MP for Sheffield, said backing HS2 was an “act of faith”. Can the politicians hold the line?
INCREASE IN CHURCH'S EDUCATION ROLE
Michael Gove has given his backing to a huge expansion in Church schools. Mr Gove has said that secular state schools could be run by the Church, though it would be legally obliged to preserve the character of non-faith schools. The Government has agreed a deal to expand the Church's role in education, whereby a community school that joined a Church academy chain could keep its existing admissions policy, religious education lessons and teachers’ employment terms, as The Times (£) reports. Church schools are consistently judged as above the national average by Ofsted, and should be protected from the trend towards enforced secularisation. 
WHITEHALL GRAVY TRAIN STILL RUNNING
Two years after Francis Maude claimed to have outlawed excessive severance deals, the Whitehall gravy train looks to be rumbling on. The former permanent secretary at the Energy Department, Moira Wallace,was handed an exit pay-out worth £472,000, of which over £200,000 was "discretionary", when she "voluntarily" left her role last year. Tough talk about changing the pay-offs awarded to Whitehall mandarins seems rather easier than tough action. 
THE BBC'S LIBERAL BIAS
Many always suspected it, but now we know for sure: the BBC has a “deep liberal bias” and has failed to reflect public concerns about immigration and the European Union. That's the verdict of Helen Boaden, the BBC’s former director of news and current head of radio in a report commissioned by the BBC Trust. 
TWEETS AND TWITS
Dave's attempt to jinx Andy Murray:
@David_Cameron: The sky over Downing St a little grey right now. Let's hope it clears up for @Andy_Murray to win at #Wimbledon. Best of luck Andy. 
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph 
Best of the rest 
John Cridland in The Times (£) - In or out, Britain has to play by Europe’s rules
John Gapper in The Financial Times (£) - Regulators are finally closing in on banks
THE AGENDA

1200 London: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision announcement, the first since Mark Carney became Governor.
at

..


at

Wednesday, 3 July 2013

HS2 consensus wanes..

Good morning. What are we to make of Peter Mandelson's devastating intervention in the high speed rail debate? Labour took to Twitter last night to say it changes nothing and the party continues to support the policy it devised. But the Prince of Mandy is an influential figure, well connected to business, and his verdict that HS2 could prove to be a "monumental mistake" will carry weight. The FT (£) speculates that Labour may be shifting its view, pointing out that Ed Balls is growing worried about the costs and Maria Eagle, who runs the brief, has raised the value for money question. 
In crude political terms, Lord Mandelson has helped Ed Miliband by putting David Cameron on the spot. The PM relied on the cross party consensus on HS2 to protect him from the wrath of the shires and the scepticism of his backbenchers. HS2 is part of his global race narrative - Britain needs cutting edge infrastructure to compete and attract investment. If Labour is wavering, even if only for electoral advantage, Mr Cameron might look isolated. A climb-down on high speed rail, even if it's in the shape of a delay or review that kicks it beyond the election, will be a signal moment. On the other hand, the PM has shown he won't be budged on issues with which he is personally identified. Like ring-fencing aid and protecting pensioner entitlements, this is one of them. But it's a sore spot, and Mandy has just poked him where it hurts.
BE WARY OF THAT MR FARAGE
Chris Grayling has written of the dangers posed to the Conservatives by "that nice Mr Farage". If Conservatives disillusioned by coalition stay at home or vote for Ukip in 2015, Mr Grayling warns of what an Ed Miliband premiership could look like:
The most Left-wing political leader this country has seen since Michael Foot. He and his party are in the pockets of the trade unions, and when you hear them talk it sometimes seems like a throwback to the Seventies. 
Mr Grayling's intervention marks an interesting new Conservative approach to Ukip: he is not calling supporters "swivel-eyed" but is trying to rationalise with them what the electoral repercussions would be. 
BETTER THAN PMQS
It's PMQs today and, while we might enjoy the theatrics, it's all rather predictable. So it's just as well we have our own live question session every Wednesday, starting this week with columnist of the year Peter Oborne. He'll be taking questions from 2:30 today: you can find out more here; and tweet using #askoborne to ask Peter a question. 
DOES OWEN JONES RUN LABOUR?
The question is not as ridiculous as it might appear. Dan Hodges bloggedon what shadow cabinet members had told him about Owen Jones:
“We’ve all been instructed we can’t debate Owen Jones, and we can’t criticise him. We’ve been warned attacking him would be the equivalent of friendly fire.”
One person who clearly hadn't heard the orders was Simon Danczuk. Mr Danczuk yesterday branded Jones an "1980s alternative comedian" during an exchange. You can watch it here. 
The row comes amid growing criticism of Labour's candidate selection process, added to by Labour seizing control of 14 of its constituency parties due to concerns about alleged attempts to manipulate selections and exert unfair influence, as reported in The Times (£). Sources close to Ed Miliband have criticised the splash as "seriously misleading", pointing out that 12 of the constituencies were placed in special measures before 2005, with Falkirk the only one in which there was concern about the role of Unite. 
Less headline-grabbing but perhaps ultimately more worrying for Labour is Peter Kellner's analysis in The Times (£) showing that support for more tax-and-spend in Britain is remarkably low, at just 13 per cent, a similar trend to the rest of Europe. As Mary Riddell writes, "Mr Miliband’s belief that Mr Cameron’s short-term fixes will ultimately be his undoing" could be overly optimistic - but, having decided to play the tortoise to Dave's hare, changing tack could be equally risky. 
20 YEARS OF PAIN
Sir Jeremy Heywood has put the euphoria over last week's pain-free spending review into perspective. Sir Jeremy, speaking to an audience of civil servants, emphasised that “There is still an enormous amount of work to get that deficit down to a balanced level to get the debt/GDP level falling rather than rising” and called the cuts part of "a 20-year generational battle to beef up the economy". Sir Jeremy's intervention will add to the impression that George Osborne could have sought greater cuts at the SR, though the Chancellor will also be concerned by the the £9.6 billion in uncollected VAT returns in 2010-11, reported in The Guardian. 
Meanwhile, Mr Osborne has defended his involvement in the departure of Stephen Hester from RBS: “It’s the largest lender to small business in our country, so of course we’re interested in the health of the bank”, Mr Osborne said at a Times (£) event. Since Mr Hester's departure was announced, the share price of RBS has fallen by over £4 billion.
LIB DEMS EDGE TOWARDS TRIDENT DECISION
The Lib Dems are moving towards calling for some of the UK's four nuclear submarines not to be replaced after they are decommissioned, which will be put to the Lib Dem conference in September, James Landale reports. The stance - which falls short of the all-out scrapping of Trident many Lib Dems support - would make another coalition deal with the Conservatives difficult as they are adamant that a continuous at sea deterrent is the only option. 
WHY MPS SHOULD GO TO AFGHANISTAN
Should MPs be able to vote on matters of war in the Commons with no experience of Afghanistan? Jessica Lee, the MP for Erewash, is unconvinced, and writes for us on the importance of Parliament's RAF scheme in informing her understanding of the Armed Forces and war itself.  
BORIS WANTS IMMIGRANT AMNESTY
While Jeremy Hunt is today announcing a £200 levy on immigrants to pay for the NHS, Boris Johnson continues to provide evidence of his willingness to challenge Conservative Party orthodoxy. Speaking on his LCB Radio show, Boris contradicted Dave's recent claim that an amnesty for illegal immigrants would make Britain look soft. Boris said: 
We should have an amnesty... We've got people who've got in here illegally. They are not engaged with the economy and being honest with the system. 
It is a brave stance in a climate in which Nick Clegg recently said that the Lib Dems were wrong to call for an amnesty. It will cement Boris's reputation as a man not beholden to any party line, but it is a policy that will play much better in London than the country-at-large. Perhaps, as Boris also hinted at, he is thinking of running for a third term as Mayor of London after all?   
HUNTED BECOME THE HUNTERS
Amid the outcry over the recommendations for an increase in MPs' salaries, they could be forgiven for enjoying the news that one in four BBC managers was allowed to leave with bigger payoffs than they were entitled to and police could investigate. Rob Wilson has said that is is writing to the public spending watchdog to ask whether there was any evidence of "fraud or criminal wrongdoing" surrounding the payments. 
TWEETS AND TWITS
Diane Abbott is angry about the levy foreigners will have to pay to use the NHS:
@HacknetAbbott: What price xenophobia? Stigmatising foreigners accessing NHS creates a public health risk. 
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph 
Best of the rest 
Peter Kellner in The Times (£) - We no longer believe the Left will look after us
Peter Mandelson in The Financial Times (£) - Second thoughts on new high-speed line 
Andrew Alexander in The Daily Mail - Nuts? The HS2 scandal is truly off the rails
Simon Jenkins in The Guardian - To rein in top pay, keep MPs poor and furious
THE AGENDA
1230 London: Lord Adonis 'Time for a new industrial policy?' event. Policy Exchange.
1830 London: President of Americans for Tax Reform Grover Norquist speaks on taxes. IEA Hayek Memorial Lecture. 
at

Tuesday, 2 July 2013

...


at

Tories believe big arguments are going their way..

Good morning. On another sluggish day for politics, Michael Gove is once again making the weather. Not intentionally, mind, but for my money it's the Indy splash that catches the eye. It reports that the Department for Education is pressing ahead with plans to allow free schools and academies to become profit-making and be allowed to dispose of school land. The sourcing appears to be former DoE employees who don't like the idea, which will give credence to the Gove argument that some officials have tried to sabotage his work (though it should be pointed out that relations between Team Gove and officials are far improved these days). Whatever the origin, the gist is that Mr Gove "is considering the controversial financial revamp of his academy schools programme after advisers predicted his reforms will stall unless operators and sponsors are given new financial incentives to get involved". 
Considering is not the same as doing, and this may well be about manifesto ambitions rather than imminent change. I see no sign of denials out there, but the day is young. Actually, it sounds right. We know it's what Mr Gove would like, and we know that this has been one of the deferred battles of his campaign. But we also know that the Education Secretary is feeling increasingly confident that his reforms are entrenched and that his success so far has earned him permission to be more audacious. Giving schools the ultimate financial freedom is the logical next step of his programme, so it shouldn't be surprising that work is going on behind the scenes to push the idea. Keep an eye on this issue: the Conservatives have their tails up because they think the big arguments are going their way. This emboldens them. As I note in my column, there is a whiff of "irrational exuberance" in the air about an outright victory in 2015, even though the electoral facts remains stacked against David Cameron. "We are best when we are boldest," Mr Tony once said. Mr Gove is a big admirer of the triple-winner, and so it isn't surprising to find him constantly pushing for more.
WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH LABOUR?
While John Mills's claim that Labour helped arrange his "tax efficient" donations is uncomfortable, the party's real problem concerns the unseemly brawl over Falkirk, where the trade union Unite has signed up new candidates to try and get their favoured candidate nominated. It shows no sign of ending anytime soon, and is all deeply damaging to the party's claims of being ready to return to government, pointing to underlying problems within Labour. As Dan Hodges writes:
Events in Falkirk have not emerged out of the blue. Instead, they are the inevitable consequence of what happens when a party lacking clear leadership and political direction gives a licence to freelance to those with strong wills and even stronger agendas. 
Dan suggests the defining test of Ed Miliband's leadership will be how he deals with Labour’s campaign co-ordinator Tom Watson, who has defended Unite's involvement in Falkirk. To Rachel Sylvester, in The Times (£), "Mr Miliband must not look as if he is in hock to a public sector interest group. The unions should lose their share of the vote at party conferences and leadership elections."
Mr Miliband is proud of Labour's links to trade unions; he wouldn't have become leader without their support. But unless he dismantles the charge of being a union man, Tory HQ will have plenty of ammo to fire come 2015.  
PROBLEMS FOR EU BILL
The EU Referendum Bill has problems. James Wharton has said that it is in danger of running out of debating time if too many amendments are proposed, while admitting (as we reported yesterday) that his Bill could not legally guarantee a future referendum. But a bigger problem for supporters of a referendum could be Nick Clegg: the FT (£) says that he does not support Dave's planned referendum in 2017. That could be the biggest barrier to Dave remaining PM if, as very possible, 2015 produces another Hung Parliament. 
LEADERS v THE BACKBENCHERS
Only emergency laws can now stop MPs from receiving a pay rise against the wishes of all three party leaders, notes The Times (£); indeed, Nick Clegg has even gone as far as saying that he would not take any pay increases, reports The Guardian. The populism can be hard to escape -Paul Staines says in The Times (£) that MPs couldn't accept any increase,  though Jack Straw takes a different view. Perhaps the most interesting dynamic is the split between the well-remunerated front benchers who are saying no and the backbenchers (especially those frustrated at not being offered ministerial posts) who are understandably a bit peeved. 
DAVE - HARRY POTTER OR DRACO MALFOY?
Dave used a Q and A session with students in Kazakhstan to admit he wants "to be Harry Potter". That may be fair enough, but our readers would seem not to agree: when asked which Harry Potter character Dave most resembled, they opted for Draco Malfoy.  
BORIS WANTS LONDON FRACKING
Boris Johnson is leading efforts to get Britain fracking. He has written to The Times (£), saying that "in London we should leave no stone unturned, or unfracked, in the cause of keeping the lights on" although the nearest fracking site currently proposed is in West Sussex. 
NEW NHS LEVY ON FOREIGNERS
Jeremy Hunt will tomorrow unveil a new scheme aimed at curbing NHS spending on foreigners, reports The Sun. Mr Hunt will propose a mandatory levy, paid upfront, for everyone staying longer than six months. But the policy is hugely controversial in the Coalition: the Business and Education departments are worried it could make Britain a less attractive place to work and study. 
MORE PRESSURE ON HS2
Pressure is growing against the building of High Speed 2. A few days after the increase in costs to £42.6 billion, the economic benefits of HS2 are being revised downwards. The original estimate of £48 billion of economic benefits included £21 billion based on the assumption that people did not work on trains, reports the FT (£). It's a reminder that, where big projects are concerned, initial cost-benefit analyses are never quite what they seem.  
CARNEY FAVOURS THE TUBE
Mark Carney has begun work as Governor of the Bank of England. No one can accuse him of slacking: he reported for duty before 7am and opted for the tube ahead of the car reserved for governors, as the FT (£) reports. Embracing cricket and now the tube: Mr Carney is certainly getting used to English life. 
TWEETS AND TWITS 
Dave tries to join in Wimbledon fever:
@David_Cameron: Just back from a successful trip to Kazakhstan to hear the great news about @Andy_Murray. Bad luck @laurarobson5 - you did Britain proud. 
TOP COMMENT 
In the Telegraph 
Best of the rest 
Rachel Sylvester in The Times (£) - Does Len McCluskey or Ed Miliband run Labour?
Janan Ganesh in The Financial Times (£) - Even the British left is turning against Europe
John Taylor in The Financial Times (£) - Share your thoughts, Mr Carney
THE AGENDA
1830 London: 'NHS at 65: rejuvenate or retire?' debate at the RSA with Alan Milburn.
at

Monday, 1 July 2013


at

MPs fear gap between rhetoric & action..

Good morning. The pledge to guarantee a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU might not be all that it seems. An official Commons analysis says Parliamentary votes after the next election will be required to enshrine a future referendum in law. 
The Commons has effectively highlighted what many Tory MPs fear, namely the gap between Cameron's rhetoric and his actions. He has paraded the referendum bill as as a clincher that guarantees a vote, but it's clearly just a declaration of intent. The Government will argue that, if returned, Mr Cameron will be unable to ignore it and so the bill carries weight. But what it doesn't do is ensure that there will be a vote come what may. Whoever is in power after the election will have to bring forward legislation to make the referendum happen. Which is far less certain. 
Still, Mr Cameron is not missing the chance to gain political points from it all. His words in the Mail - "I would say to all MPs, turn up and vote" - are quite clearly aimed at Labour and the Lib Dems and their plans to stay away from the Commons on Friday, the day of the EU referendum bill vote. The same is true of his urge to MPs to "get off the fence" - a clear reference to the Lib Dems, who backed an in-out referendum at the last election. To Labour donor John Mills, writing in The Guardian, the bill is nothing more than a "blue referendum" and Mr Cameron has done nothing to build up cross-party support.
There are also developments on tax breaks for married couples. Tim Loughton seems to be ready to withdraw his amendment today after Dave's pledge but the key point seems to me that there remains a considerable gap between words and deeds. As Commons authorities argue about the EU bill, one Parliament can't bind another. MPs will want to take a hard look at Dave's paving legislation to work out whether it amounts to a hill of beans.
FIRST DAY AT SCHOOL
Mark Carney warmed up for his first day as Governor of the Bank of England in a quintessentially English manner - by watching his predecessor play a cricket match. But unfortunately, Mr Carney has rather more to get to grips with than the lbw law. On Thursday, the MPC will announce its interest rate decision for the month and then, as Chris Giles writes in the FT (£), "focus will turn to two big issues likely to dominate his first 100 days in office: the appointment of a new deputy-governor and moves to revolutionise the setting of monetary policy in Britain." Wider questions include whether to pursue the strategy of quantitative easing. But it's worth remembering the limits of Mr Carney's power: Sir Mervyn King was often outvoted in the MPC. 
Expectations are such that The Times (£) suggests a priority of Mr Carney's should be "to try to reduce the absurdly high expectations that surround him." He must also avoid the temptation  to attempt to do too much too soon. This would be unwise. As Norman Lamont writes, "His role is not to find a monetary silver bullet, but to deliver some hard messages that a debt work-out is exactly that – tough, unremitting, but the only way to get the economy back into better shape."
ED v THE UNIONS
The intervention of former Labour minister Kim Howells yesterday was a reminder of Ed Miliband's problems: "If he can’t lead his own party, how could he ever lead the country?", as Grant Shapps put it. The ongoing mess over the selection of Labour's candidate for the Falkirk by-election, and the claims that Unite have recruited and paid for new members to secure the nomination of its favoured candidate, show the unions often exert an unhealthy influence over the party. The Guardian argues that, "As a matter of democratic principle it is extremely questionable whether unions (or anyone else) should be allowed to pay for people to join the Labour party at all." 
To Boris Johnson, writing for us, Mr Miliband "has reduced Labour to its old role as a party of protest, complaint, and public-sector special interest groups" and is more Neil Kinnock than Tony Blair. Against this backdrop, it's little wonder there is rising confidence in the Tory camp: MPs in marginal seats who expected defeat a year ago are now quietly optimistic about what 2015 might hold.
DAVE HITS KAZAKHSTAN
Mr Cameron's pursuit of victory in the "global race" has taken him to Kazakhstan, where he hopes to agree a series of business deals worth up to £85bn over the next decade, as The Guardian reports. Accompanied by a 33-strong business delegation, Mr Cameron opened a new oil plant and admitted that he would only raise human rights with the president as a subsidiary issue. 
AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRIDENT?
Lib Dems are still eyeing up a cheaper alternative to the Trident nuclear deterrent. Danny Alexander yesterday said that a Government review had identified cheaper "alternatives" to the £20 billion cost of replacing Trident, reports the Mail. The review, due out in August, is expected to argue that there is no serious alternative to Trident if Britain wants to maintain a continuous deterrent.
MPS TO BE RECOMMENDED PAY RISES
MPs are likely to be recommended a pay rise of at least £10,000 after the next election by the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority. The government has no say over the recommendations - a legacy of the expenses scandal - but is scrambling to find ways to block them. As we note, it seems that MPs can't do anything right: we could even have the bizarre prospect of MPs reclaiming remuneration powers from IPSA in order to vote down a pay rise for themselves, although a solid majority of MPs do support rises. 
TWEETS AND TWITS 
Stewart Jackson welcomes the news on marriage tax breaks:
@SJacksonMP: Pleased to hear that campaign for marriage tax breaks for which I've argued for 2 years & was in our 2010 manifesto looks close to fruition
TOP COMMENT 
In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Tim Montgomerie in The Times (£) - By the time HS2 arrives, we’ll no longer need it
Trevor Kavanagh in The Sun - Press must withdraw from panto stitch-up
John Mills in The Guardian - EU vote is a blue referendum
THE AGENDA

1200 London: Government host a payday lending summit. 1 Victoria Street.
at
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)