Thursday, 9 May 2013

Ben Brogan's morning briefing: Clegg creates chaos on childcare..


Good Morning. Yesterday's Queen's Speech gave rise to a much speculation about the state of relations in the Coalition. Was the slimmed down legislative programme an indication of joint-focus on a few key areas or of an inability to agree which prevented a more ambitious schedule? Last night's Newsnight revelation that Nick has told the Tories that he will block government reforms to childcare ratios might be a fair indication. The Government's plan to allow a greater number of children per adult in nurseries was intended to drive down childcare costs. Without it, the budget for the entire childcare programme will need to be reviewed. The Lib Dems can point to the hostility of nurseries and to safety concerns, but it also feels like an attempt to derail Dave's bid to restore his reputation with women, a calculated snub now that the DPM finds Europe in play.
One of the biggest announcements in yesterday's Queen's Speech was implicit: Ukip will have a role to play in domestic policy making. Immigration may have taken the headlines prior to the speech, but it was the Offender Rehabilitation Bill, providing for the supervision of those jailed for less than 12 months when they are released, which has held the focus afterwards. As Chris Grayling writes for us, re-offending rates are atrocious and the taxpayer is getting a rotten return on the costs ofincarceration. But it's also a nod to the traditional constituencies the Tories have long neglected and who are now considering Ukip. As with the Immigration Bill which has upset doctors and landlords who have been appointed part-time boarder guards, it's Westminster controversial, but not likely to get the Tories in trouble with the base. Interestingly, the FT (£) suggests that Ukip had "put out feelers" for Lynton Crosby, whose influence on direction in the Tory camp is becoming clear, before he joined Team Dave. The £350,000 asking price was offputting, apparently.
There's a body of opinion that the Speech was, in Polly Toynbee's words, "a mouse of a programme". As the Independent points out, constitutional reform is dead, the aid pledge gone, and long awaited lobbying reforms absent entirely. The FT's (£) line that "clean-living zeal" had been dropped along with minimum alcohol pricing and plain cigarette packets was also reflected in the commentaries of many who, like James Kirkup, see the sun setting on the Coalition.
But then, the Coalition was never likely to be an idealistic love match. The combination of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems was always going to be judged on the progress of the economy at a time on national crisis - the problem the pair came together to fix. The griping from the footsoldiers in both camps has been with social policy making. Unless both parties can show that the Coalition is yielding economic benefits, they can forget about the loyalty of backbenchers or voters by 2015. In that context, heading back to basics in terms of peripheral legislation and putting the economy first makes sense. As Peter Oborne writes, there's still a determination among both party leaders to see things through:
"A poor Queen’s Speech yesterday and the Coalition might have been doomed. It simply would not have had the ballast to confront the inevitable turbulence over the parliamentary year ahead, which starts with a poisonous negotiation over the next spending review, due to conclude in July. In 12 months’ time, with only a year to go – at the most – before election day, it will be impossible to repeat the trick. Legislation takes ages to take effect – a year to go through Parliament, two years to be implemented, perhaps another decade to bed down genuine and lasting change. Nevertheless, yet again this Coalition Government has defied logic and refused to be brought down by the weight of its internal contradictions. With this brilliant Queen’s Speech, it has bought itself another year."
PORTILLO JOINS BREXIT CALLS
David Cameron's European journey is being rather hampered by blasts from the past at present. Yesterday there was Charles Moore's revelationthat Margaret Thatcher had come to believe that Britain ought to leave Europe but stayed quiet having been advised that such a view would marginalise her. Today, it's Michael Portillo who does a Lawson in the comment pages of the Times (£). Europe's vision and Britain's are clean different things, he says, if we ever get the opportunity:
"Nigel Lawson says that he would vote in a referendum for Britain to leave the European Union. So would I. But I am much less confident than he is that we will get the opportunity to express our will. A referendum would occur if the Conservatives won a majority at the next election and kept their promise. They didn’t win the last one and it is extremely rare for governing parties to improve their share of the vote, even when their opponents are as weakly led as Labour and the Liberal Democrats are now."
MAD NAD GETS THE WHIP BACK
After the not so subtle hints dropped about Ukip's overtures to her, Nadine Dorries was re-admitted to the parliamentary Conservative Party yesterday after almost six months of exile. Amusingly, PoliticsHomenotes that her welcome back party will be hosted by David Davis' office on Monday, a champagne reception with "Whips admitted only if accompanies by an adult," and drinks provided by Andrew Mitchell. You have to hope that Mr Davis' next door neighbour in Portcullis House has time to pop in - I'm sure Sir George Young wouldn't miss it for the world. 
LESS TOFFISHNESS, PLEASE. WE'RE TORY
Several of the papers carry a letter to Dave from the former Conservative leader of Oxfordshire County Council, Keith Mitchell. Ditch the politicking, and get on the beer and fags like Nigel, Mr Mitchell advises. As the Mail reports, he adds that "you and George [Osborne], in particular, have been portrayed as public school toffs. You have to work out how to be one of us without affectation or silly gimmicks and to speak the language of Joe Public."
WHITEHALL DEVASTATED BY BONKING DIFFICULTIES 
Some killer detail on the Cabinet Office power grab in Whitehall from ourSue Cameron - "the bonking machine is in revolt". It's not what you're thinking, Boris is fine, but the letter folding and stuffing machines do not work with the recycled paper which the Cabinet Office now insists that each department must use. That isn't the only reason for discontentment:
"Much of what the Cabinet Office is trying to achieve is well intended, and of course efficiencies and cost savings are highly desirable. Yet the way this is being done seems to be alienating far too many people inside and outside Whitehall. As always the success or failure of any policy depends on how it is done. At present, there seems to be a fatal combination of arrogance, poor people skills and insufficient thought about the changes that may be needed in Whitehall to deliver policies over a wide range of very different areas."
SCOTS SHY FROM GOING FOR BROKE
Scottish support for independence is floundering, according to the Times(£). A new Ipsos/MORI poll shows that the yes camp trails the unionists by 28pc among those certain to vote. The Treasury is about to turn the screw further. Their report on an independent Scotland is out in a fortnight's time, and it's likely to suggest that Scotland's higher borrowing costs will mean more expensive mortgages and insurance, and lower value pension funds.
NEW TAX UPDATE: THE BORIS AND THE BRIDGET JONES
It may soon be the case that it isn't only Dave who finds Bo-Jo taxing. The London Mayor will use a report by the London Finance Commission to demand the right to raise property and tourism taxes, borrow money and build houses, the Guardian reports. Still, a tourist tax would go down better than the proposal from the Local Government Association which, as the Mail reports, would like to end the 25pc council tax discount available to single occupiers. It's a move being pushed by Labour councils, but were it ever adopted, how long before the words "Bridget Jones tax" were being mouthed by every shadow cabinet member?
FERGIE TIME FOR THE LORDS?
The retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson moved every politicial in the land to their Twitter account to share their sadness with a grateful nation. George Osborne recalled a "spectacularly unsuccessful attempt to canvass his house as a young candidate" while Ed appeared to believe he had died (see Tweets and Twits) and Dave praised his "exceptional achievements". Sir Alex's Labour sympathies are well known, leading theMail note that party sources say it is a "distinct possibility" he will be nominated for a peerage. He'd certainly be at home on the red benches.
ED MILIBAND, LAST ACTION HERO
Quite understandably, in the words of the Camden New Journal, "Ella Phillips, 29, thought she had suffered concussion when the Labour Party leader’s face suddenly appeared in front of her after she had flipped over her handlebars near the underground station in Kentish Town Road on Thursday." She was, in fact, being rescued by the "suave" figure of Ed Miliband who had been passing by at the time. After carrying her onto the pavement and checking she was alright, he disappeared as silently as he had arrived. Ms Phillips tells the paper that she is very grateful, although even in his finest hour, Ed does not totally escape suspicion: "I half suspected he had deliberately knocked me off my bike just to gallantly help me up again." 
TWEETS AND TWITS

He's not dead you know, Ed:

@Ed_Miliband:"Proud man. Great manager. Staunch Labour Party supporter. Sir Alex Ferguson will never be forgotten."
TOP COMMENT
Telegraph View - The Queen's message? That continuity reigns

Best of the rest

Michael Portillo in The Times (£) - We don't share Europe's vision. So I want out
Martin Kettle in The Guardian - This is the beginning of the end for the Coalition
Alistair Darling in the FT (£) - Economics, niot politics, should dictate the RBS sale
Rod Liddle in The Sun - Ol' Shiny Face won't trust you on Europe
THE AGENDA

Today: Civil service strike. Members of the Public and Commercial Services union at a number of Government agencies and commissions stage a one-hour strike from 11am in a dispute over pay, jobs and conditions.
09:30 am: Brighton College Education Conference. Former schools minister Lord Adonis speaking at 09:35 and Education Secretary Michael Gove at 10:30. Brighton College, Eastern Road, Brighton.
09:30 am: Council of Mortgage Lenders releases its arrears and repossessions and buy-to-let figures for the first quarter of 2013.
09:30 am: Global investment summit, including speech from David Cameron. Press requested to arrive at 09:30 for 10:00 start. David Cameron will speak at 10:10, Energy Secretary Ed Davey at 11:45, Treasury minister Lord Deighton at 12:05, Boris Johnson at 12:40. At 04:30, George Osborne will chair a panel including Christine Lagarde, managing director, International Monetary Fund; Dr Wolfgang Schduble, federal minister of finance, Germany; and Jim Flaherty, minister of finance, Canada.
12:00 pm: Bank of England decision on interest rates and quantitative easing programme.
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Wednesday, 8 May 2013


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Ben Brogan's morning briefing: Queen's speech..


BREAKING NEWS: The omission of measures aimed at problem drinking and smoking from today's Queen's Speech does not mean they have been abandoned, Jeremy Hunt told the Today programme:
"Just because something is not in the Queen's Speech does not mean the Government can't bring it forward as law, but we have not made a decision...On plain paper packaging, if we do it we will be the first country in Europe, the second country in the world - Australia only introduced it in January. So it is a much harder job to assess the evidence as to how effective it would be. I want to make sure we do the job properly so I've said I will take the time needed."
QUEEN'S SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS DAVE'S TACTICAL CONUNDRUM
Good morning. It's Queen's Speech day, and what's out is just as noteworthy as what's in. As we report, there's some meat this morning on immigration - landlords will be made responsible for checking their tenants' status before arranging a letting. The headline announcements we have already - an Immigration Bill which will curb access to benefits and non-emergency NHS treatment for  temporary visitors, the flat rate pension scheme, a £72,000 cap on care contributions, and a paving bill for HS2. Patrick Wintour has a full list of runners and riders over at theGuardian. The speech cannot be said to be a knee jerk reaction to the local elections - for a start it needs to be written three days in advance as the ink takes that long to dry on the goat hide (h/t Nick Robinson) - but it does bear the fingerprints of Lynton Crosby. There's meat here for the Tory backbenches if they can stop squabbling long enough to enjoy it.
What isn't there is also instructive. Out have gone proposed measures on plain cigarette packaging and data (the snooper's charter), suggesting Dave is weary of another fight with the malcontents. Nor is there any mention of gay marriage (actually, there was no mention in the last speech, either) except to say that it has been carried over from the last parliament. As our leader points out, that presents Dave with a messy dilemma. Assuming it comes back from the Lords having been amended to within an inch of its life, he will be under pressure to reverse those amendments in the lower chamber. Cue a repeat of the popular Tory mods v head bangers slugfest. Party unity demands he let it slip quietly into the night, but having expended so much political capital to take the bill this far, it is difficult to see how he can drop it.
Finally, there's Europe. Dave conceded yesterday in a letter to John Baron that he wouldn't be legislating for a vote in this parliament after all, despite several hints to the contrary. As we report, it was only last week that Downing Street was whispering that Dave would introduce legislation even at the risk of defeat, so strong were his convictions. Now, it appears that Number 10 would stop at backing a backbencher bringing a private bill which would almost certainly run out of time. Surveys in both the Sun and the Times (£) indicate that the British public is more eurosceptic and ever. Dave choosing this moment to hide his light under a bushel is hardly calculated to make him friends in the marginals.
Nothing seems to frustrate Tory MPs more than Mr Cameron's habit of over-promising and under-delivering. Equally, though, in the context of first Nigel Lawson and then Liam Fox, it's worth pointing out how striking it is that otherwise thoughtful, intelligent Conservatives appear to have no sense of the harm they do to the party's 2015 chances by airing their differences with Dave. Message discipline may have a slightly Stalinist flavour, but Labour are better at it.
KIP CLIMBING ON UP THE CHARTS
Farewell Tory poll revival, we barely knew ye. The Sun's YouGov poll shows Labour's lead back out at 10pts with Ukip biting a considerable chunk from the Conservative figures (Con 29pc, Lab 39pc, Lib Dem 9pc, Ukip 16pc). Eccentrically, the majority of Ukip supporters do not even cite Europe as a priority. Only 49pc select it as an issue of utmost importance to the country, compared with 90pc worried about immigration and 73pc with the economy.
That will confuse the Conservatives. Given that hardline policies on immigration and welfare abuse, exactly the issues Ukip voters prioritise, had been trailed extensively before the local elections, Dave could be forgiven for asking what it is that the party has that the Conservatives lack. Well, an increasing number of members for a start. The FT (£) reports that the party's membership base rose by more than 50pc in the year to April, reaching 26,097 from a base of 17,220. It's a long way short of the Tory number (which has declined from around 500,000 in the 1990s to c.130,000 today), but the respective trajectories of the parties will concern CCHQ. At least they have not lost any MPs to Ukip in this parliament. The Mail warns that Bernard Jenkin has already raised the prospect of others departing from the Tory benches to form a Ukip parliamentary delegation.
TALKING YOUR LANGUAGE
Bad news for Polly Toynbee - she's lost Dr Liam Fox. Writing for us, Dr Fox explains that he no longer cares what was said around the Guardian columnist's dinner table but "it should matter to [the Conservatives] what is being said in the Dog and Duck in Daventry, Darlington or Dover." Obviously he did not have time to watch the Chancellor's speech to warehouse workers in Kent last month. If he had have done, he'd know that nobody was employing working class idiom more effectively in the quest for a "bedder Briddain". What Ed Miliband would give for the Chancellor's mockney. As Mary Riddell points out, he still doesn't speak human very well:
"Belatedly, Labour is shifting away from vague suggestions that the growth fairy would heal the broken economy. Past indecision cut no ice in Boston or elsewhere. If the days of boom have gone for ever, as some economists suspect, then the social democrats whose programmes are tailored to good times need a new story more speedily than ever. That does not mean an instant manifesto, but nor will vision suffice. Voters deserve precision and honesty, and the main parties have offered neither."
BALLS BLASTED
As befits one of Gordon Brown's former aides, Ed Balls has perfected the Macavity-esque trick of disappearing when turbulence hits. Now he has been told to pull his socks up, through a Peter Hain article in Progress Online . Mr Hain argues that "Labour's Treasury team need to get out on the stump now and work even harder. It shouldn't just be left to Ed and Harriet to carry the heavy load, whether on the World at One, the Today programme or anywhere else." The former Welsh Secretary also argues for a defence of the position that Labour will borrow more in the short term, a point of some confusion for Red Ed in his WATO interview. Labour standing for more debt? As Fraser Nelson caustically notes in theSpectator, that's another policy they have stolen from the Tories.
CAMERON REJECTS CHARTER DEAL
Dave will reject the proposals made as an alternative to the Government's Royal Charter, we report. The Charter was withdrawn from the order of business for the next Privy Council meeting on May 15th in order to allow due consideration of alternative proposals by the press. A public consultation will now run until May 25th, although why, given that the Prime Minister "sticks to his position", according to a spokesman, is anyone's guess.
BIG TROUBLE IN GREATER CHINA
He's coming whether you like it or not. The Chinese are warned in today'sFT (£) that they will be getting a visit from Dave in the autumn, despite sources making it clear in yesterday's Telegraph that Sino-British relations were badly damaged by the Prime Minister's desire to have his picture taken with the Dalai Lama. In the meantime, British ministers will decide "who they meet and when they meet them", according to Downing Street. So there. 
TWEETS AND TWITS

Lord Lawson's comments yesterday won some praise from Austin Mitchell:

@AVMitchell2010:"Bring back Lawson as chancellor.He's learned sense on EU and he knows how to get a boom going"

TOP COMMENT In the Telegraph

Mary Riddell - For all his proficiency on the palet, Miliband still can't speak human
Telegraph View - New Bills - and an old one that won't go away

Best of the rest

Simon Jenkins in The Guardian - If Cameron had any sense, he would call a referendum now
Daniel Finkelstein in The Times (£) - Cameron needs a big tent Conservatism
Andrew Alexander in the Daily Mail - Why the Eton crew could sink Cameron
Matthew Norman in The Independent - If only the Queen would speak about a business that gambles with lives

THE AGENDA

Today: Civil service strike. Members of the Public and Commercial Service union at a number of government agencies and commissions stage a one-hour strike from 11am in a dispute over pay, jobs and conditions.
11:30 am: State Opening of Parliament. Palace of Westminster.
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Tuesday, 7 May 2013


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Ben Brogan's morning briefing: Clegg rebuffs Lawson call for Britain to leave EU..


BREAKING NEWS: Nick Clegg has told the Today programme that Britain can expect a Queen's Speech which is "rooted in the centre ground of British politics." He has also taken Lord Lawson to task on his comments in this morning's Times, while opposing Dave's plan for a referendum in the next parliament irrespective of treaty changes:
"If we were to leave the EU we would jeopardise up to three million jobs in this country... We absolutely must have a referendum [but only] the next time the rules of the European Union change. [As for Lord Lawson's comments, they're] part of an anguished debate within the Tory party - they've had it before, they'll have it again."
LORD LAWSON BACKS A BREXIT
Good morning. Lord Lawson's column in the Times (£) will make difficult reading for Dave. The former Chancellor has pledged his referendum vote to the "out" camp, quoting John Maynard Keynes' maxim that "when the facts change, I change my mind." Of course, it is easier to have views like these when one is freed of the burdens and constraints of high office. It's bound to jolt the Tories though, and it will be curious to see whether it triggers a Spartacus moment that reveals who the other closet outers are. It's worth noting too that Lord Lawson's comments are a bit equivocal on the benefits of a Brexit, and he glosses over the possible costs. It would be a brave PM who goes with a hunch on something quite so momentous.
What Lord Lawson's intervention does do is highlight the tactical problem which Dave's referendum ploy brings. The Prime Minister may have temporarily stifled the baying of his party's backbenchers by promising a vote on Europe. But he will campaign to stay in. Taking the party with him is going to require a Herculean effort. When Labour figures like Keith Vaz (see Tweets and Twits) suggest that the vote is held before, or contemporaneously with, the next election, they're trying to do Dave a mischief. The offer of an EU vote after the next election may draw back some Tory defectOrs to Ukip. The spectre of the Conservative leader campaigning on a pro-EU platform certainly won't.
Europe isn't the only one of Dave's problems. A full page advert in today's Times articulates the wish of many disillusioned voters to have "fewer political soundbites and more real action." Yesterday's plea from Conservative Grassroots chairman Robert Woollard for Dave to shelve his gay marriage plans highlighted the devastation of the party base under his leadership - down from 400,000 to 130,000 as the Expressreports. With fewer foot soldiers, the Tories need to plunder a larger vote share than in 2010, but with a diminished capacity on the ground. A number of Tory MPs are sold on the idea that internet campaigning is the future - it may be, but success in the present is still a matter of knocking on doors.
But Conservatives shouldn't get too carried away with all the doom and gloom. Party divisions over Europe, backbench indiscipline, a fragile economic recovery and an under-fire leader who is still more popular than his opponent. Sound familiar? Come 2015, the Tories will hope to party like it's 1992, as I write in my column:
"For a start, the party has been galvanised by the death of Margaret Thatcher and the fortnight of commemoration and recollection that followed. Her passing reminded the Tories of their past glories and what they could achieve when united around a leader and an idea. More importantly, the hateful reaction from the Left reminded them that the old enemy has not gone away. Tories can now see the danger a Labour or Lib-Lab government would pose...Better still, the Conservatives have what looks increasingly like a clear policy platform that answers Ukip’s challenge. In a few weeks, for example, new figures will show that immigration has fallen again, allowing Mr Cameron to say that he is getting on with addressing the problem."
DRAGON SEES RED
Given his role as Britain's roving arms salesman trade ambassador, Dave will know there's one important stamp missing from his passport. As we report, the Prime Minister has managed to get himself barred from China thanks to last year's photo opportunity with the Dalai Lama. A proposed visit last autumn was cancelled by Beijing, while this year's scheduled visit to Britain by the Chinese premier Li Keqiang has also been called off. Britain's ambassador has been summoned and told to apologise, a political impossibility, and the Chinese embassy in London has resorted to demanding that the government make a gesture towards restoring a healthy track" noting that no political relationship means no trading one.  It's  embarrassing for Dave the diplomat, but it's worse for his Chancellor with billions of pounds of investment at risk, particularly as Britain's energy policy is largely based on the now fragile notion that China will be willing to build us a new nuclear plant.
COALITION STUTTERS TOWARDS THE QUEEN'S SPEECH
Tomorrow's Queen's Speech will seek to address Dave's women problem. As we report, yesterday's news that those with no history of National Insurance contributions will lose their pension entitlement has been mitigated by the announcement that those caring for family members will be entitled to additional support from their local council. There will also be an Immigration Bill which limits access to some benefits for foreigners, a clean energy measure and paving legislation for HS2. To compensate for the fact that legislation on an aid target has been quietly shelved, there will be an announcement on HMRC helping African states collect taxes today.
How much will actually be achieved? The Coalition doesn't score badly in the Guardian's marking of its progress on last year's objectives - it's only the lords Reform Bill and the Communications Data Bill which have been complete turkeys. That said, there's a growing air of dissatisfaction about the price of buying the grey vote. The Sun highlights a report by Reform which claims that politicians are "running scared of the elderly", while Andrew Haldenby, a Reform director, argues in a piece for us that tomorrow's Pensions Bill will be a "missed opportunity".
BAD MANNERS MILIBAND MEANT OPPOSITION FOR LABOUR
The serialisation of Lord Adonis' election diary continues in today'sTimes (£). Gordon was prepared to go in order to facilitate a rainbow coalition between Lib and Lab, but when it came to the negotiating table, not only were the Tories willing to concede more ground, they had better manners, he reports. The culprits? Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, apparently. Manners maketh the man, they obviously maketh governments, too:
"Another dramatic text arrived from Paddy [Ashdown]: 'This is not going well. The meeting with you guys was a disaster. The Tories will give us MASSIVELY more than you guys and were respectful where your body language was my guys said truly shocking.'"
IF YOU CAN'T BEAT THEM...
Nimbys of Britain, your country needs you. As we report, planning minister Nick Boles has conceded that he won't defeat "Nimbyism", and would instead settle for "channel[ing]" the anger of campaigners into "constructive rows". In other words, campaigners have been invited to ameliorate developments rather than blocking them outright. But that's only an issue if it's the character of the development which is in question, rather than the issue of building on greenfield land. At any event, Mr Boles doesn't appear too optimistic, conceding that "it's never great to realise that you have not managed to persuade people of your proposal."
DECISION TIME ON DORRIES
One of Ukip's greatest problems in 2015 will be the lack of big-name candidates. Fortunately for them, the Tories are doing their best to hand them one. Nadine Dorries will meet Sir George Young this week in order to discuss a return to the Tory fold following a six month suspension. However, as the Times (£) reports, she will refuse to accept any deal which restores the whip in return for a promise not to criticise the leadership. The final decision rests with a three man tribunal of appeal, not with Number 10, but with Ukip waiting in the wings, it's Mrs Dorries, not Sir George, who holds the whip hand.
NON-EXEC NO SHOW
Attempts by Francis Maude to introduce business leaders onto the management boards of Whitehall departments as non-executive directors have largely failed, according to the FT (£). Bernard Jenkin, chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, points out that the Treasury's supervisory board only met once in the last financial year, and that both businessmen and ministers were confused about the contribution which was expected of them, given the lack of fiduciary duties.   
HOVE V GOVE
War has broken out on the south coast over Michael Gove's plan for a free school in Hove. Plans to concrete over an existing playing field to build the new school have outraged everyone from the usual suspects to the local (Tory) MP. "we've already had three offers for people to climb the trees and refuse to be moved," one campaigner tells the Independent. Sounds like a new mission for @toryeducation. 
TWEETS AND TWITS

Going early on the EU really is gaining some momentum, even that noted EU malcontent, er, Keith Vaz thinks we should get it done:

@Keith_VazMP:"An in / out referendum before the next election would clear the air. We could actually hold it on the day of the next general election. # Eu"

TOP COMMENT In the Telegraph

Benedict Brogan - Mr Cameron has two years left to summon up the spirit of 1992
Telegraph View - Mass immigration has left an alarming legacy

Best of the rest

Nigel Lawson in The Times (£) - I'll be voting to quit the EU
Ross Clark in the Daily Express - It is time to pull the plug on the single currency
Janan Ganesh in the FT (£) - It would be political folly for Cameron to ape Ukip

THE AGENDA

Today:  Post Office strike. Workers in hundreds of Crown post offices stage an all-day strike in a row over jobs, pay and branch closures.
09:30 pm: Cabinet. 10 Downing Street. w
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Friday, 3 May 2013


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Ben Brogan's morning briefing: UKIP surge..


Good morning. Was it a breakthrough night for Ukip? It seems like it this morning, but caveats first: we have just seven council results and a by-election on which to base our conclusions. Let's not stampede just yet. The Tories are not quite saying that things have turned out not as bad as feared, though you sense they hope so. But the numbers don't give them much comfort: they may not lose many councils, but Ukip is riping huge chunks out of Tory heartlands. John Curtice is making the point that we are seeing a historic result with huge consequences for the three main parties.
Already voices are being raised from Tory backbenches demanding concessions from Dave. John Baron was on Today pressing the case for his referendum legislation. Expect others to follow. Mr Cameron's tentative offer of a Bill this week was a pre-emptive strike. It seems that the trouble for Dave will be about policy rather than his leadership. His frenemies on the backbenches reckon they have him on the ropes: he has accepted changes to the policy-making machine that give backbenchers the whip hand, so they will use Ukip's share to beat him into more submissions. The argument today will be in part around the protest vote question: have voters lent their support to Ukip merely to make a (temporary) point, or is this the beginning of a long-term shift? Mr Cameron will argue that on immigration, Europe, welfare he is already well ahead of Ukip and doing what angry voters want. But will he be able to hold his nerve when the scale of Ukip's advance becomes clear? He'll be helped by Labour's difficulties. Ukip may take its votes from the Tories, but we may also conclude today that Ed Miliband's offer is going nowhere, in particular in the areas where it needs to recover if it is to return to power. The result may panic Dave and the Tories, but by tea-time today will it be Labour that has the most to fear? Keep up to date with our live coverage and interactive results map. The key details so far:
Local Council Elections
  • Seven declarations. Seat movements: Con -66, Lab +30, Lib Dem -15, Ukip +42
  • Tories lose Lincolnshire and Gloucestershire to no overall control.
  • Tories hold Dorset, Essex, Hampshire, Somerset and Hertfordshire
  • BBC reports that Ukip is averaging 26pc of the vote in the wards where it is standing. Polling on average 12p% higher in wards where it stood in 2009.
  • Ukip win 16 seats in Lincolnshire making it the official opposition.
South Shields By-election
  • Labour hold. Lab 50.5% (-1.5$), Ukip 24.2% (+24.2%), Con 11.6% (-10.0%)
  • Lib Dems seventh with 352 votes or 1.4%, down 12.8% and behind two independents and a BNP candidate.
  • Labour majority falls from 11,109 to 6,505 (-42%)
Grant Shapps has been across the airwaves this morning insisting that while the Tories had been hurt by defection, 2015 would be a two horse race. "Ukip have done well, I don't make any secret about that at all. We need to make sure that we are addressing the concerns of the public," he said. He later conceded to the Today programme that the Tories needed to take responsibility for failing to get their message across, adding that "[the vote] is a loud and clear message. We get it. We've heard you...we need to get on with it." A senior Lib Dem told the Press Association that the Tories were the big losers on the night: "these results are set to prove that the Tories can't win a majority in 2015, partly because the Lib Dems remain strong in [73] held seats, and partly because Ukip has peeled off a significant section of Tory support." Hilary Benn, on the other hand, was more dismissive. He told Daybreak that ""It's a party of protest, I don't think it's a party of government."
Nigel Farage? Well, he was a little more upbeat, telling the programme that it was a breakthrough moment: "We have always done well in European elections... but people haven't seen us as being relevant to local elections or in some ways general elections. So for us to be scoring, on average, 26% of the vote where we stand is I think very significant indeed." Appearing on the Today programme, he added that Ukip could emulate Canada's Reform Party and go from being a fringe party to parliamentary majority in one cycle. He also noted that: "We've been gaining momentum for over two years...the people who vote for us are rejecting the establishment. And quite right too. I understand that completely. But are they voting Ukip just to stick two fingers up or because we're offering positive policy alternatives?"
Uncomfortable questions loom for every party leader. For Dave, the focus will be on immigration and the economy, the Mail reports. Restrictions on immigrants accessing benefits, the NHS and other public services will be at the core of the new offer, with nannying reforms like the "snooper's charter" and plain pack cigarette advertising dropped. TheFT (£) has further colour, adding that the Queen's Speech will also see minimum alcohol pricing and a measure to enshrine the 0.7pc aid target in law shelved. In come the HS2 paving Bill, an immigration Bill making deportations easier, the abolition of the second state pension, and a £75,000 cap on residential care costs for the elderly. Dave's husky hugging days seem well behind him. As for Ed, the Independent warns that his colleagues are unhappy that he has fallen into the trap of making Labour "the welfare party" and are demanding a Labour deficit elimination plan which would see debt reducing from 2017/18.
What both men need to discover quickly is what makes Ukippers tick. The Times (£) has published a YouGov poll which notes that the party's voters are largely ex-Tories and prefer Dave to Ed. That's the good news for CCHQ, the bad news is the number who have defected. Of Tory voters at the last election, they have lost only 6pc to Labour, 2pc to the Lib Dems, but 18pc, nearly one in five, to Ukip. Labour have lost 4pc of their voters to the purple team, with the Lib Dems losing 8pc. As Iain Martinwrites, it may take more than tinkering around the margins to rebuild the Tory coalition:
"Ironically, when David Cameron eventually stands down in 2015 or 2017, the question confronting his party will be very similar to the one he posed in 2005. How can the Tory family be extended and broadened so that it can win properly? I suspect that the answer may lie outside the sphere of conventional Westminster politics. When the time comes, it will take a leader with the ability to make voters – sick of austerity and relative decline – forget their differences. Someone with Thatcher-like charisma, Reaganite optimism, star power, chutzpah, pragmatism, vision, luck, experience of holding office in a leading world city, and perhaps a mop of blond hair. Is there such a person available?"
ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN PRIME MINISTERS
Making a pledge on Europe is the easy part (cf. EU constitution referendum). As Dave well knows, action is the hard part. But action there must be, as Boris warned while speaking at a, er, chocoate factory yesterday. Suggesting that the Prime Minister "ram [the Europe] message home" with legislation for a referendum tabled in this parliament, Boris also delicately skirted around Dave's track record adding "I think it's very important that there should be clarity in people's minds, that we don't have a repeat of the situation we had with the Lisbon Treaty where we thought we were going to get a referendum and then it was somehow whisked off the table." Quite. As our leader instructs, "don't just say it - do it, Mr Cameron."
Fortunately for Dave, he may soon have the benefit of Boris' advice at first hand. Zac Goldsmith conceded in an interview with the Evening Standard yesterday that he had discussed the option with the Mayor, but insisted it only arose after he had seen it in a political blog. Bo-Jo has "magic dust"  and "integrity" according to Mr Goldsmith who "can imagine him as a future and very successful leader of the Conservative Party". Dave, on the other hand, has problems. Mr Goldsmith attacked his leadership, particularly his indecisiveness over Heathrow, saying "even critics respect leadership and decisiveness and I do think we are lacking in that up to a point."
THE STRAINED ALLIANCE
No wonder Philip Hammond has been eyeing the ringfenced budgets hungrily. As we report, Whitehall sources fear that the coming spending review may force British defence expenditure below the 2pc of GDP threshold required as a NATO member, straining further the British relationship with the US. Mr Hammond, who met US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel yesterday, is also said to have been warned that the US believes the UK will be able to take on less of a leadership role in Europe if further cuts are imposed, and will be more dependent of cooperation with France and other continental powers. Quelle Horreur!
NO CLIMATE CHANGE - IT'S STILL FROSTY
Ed Davey has written to Michael Gove to request that he reinstates climate change as part of the Geography curriculum. The Guardianreports that Mr Davey has requested a meeting between officials from the DoE and DoECC to discuss the issue. Mr Gove's response was thanks, but no thanks. His officials wrote back to the Energy Secretary to say that "it is not true that climate change has been removed from the new draft national curriculum," adding that its coverage in science teaching was more extensive than ever.  
OAP ASSAULT
Older MPs are treated as "dinosaurs, geriatrics or out-of-touch idiots" by party leaders fumes Austin Mitchell in a piece for this month's Oldie. As we report, Mr Mitchell, a sprightly 78, really gives it both barrels:
 "Arrivistes, garagistes and City whiz-kids replaced the older Tory elite, while Labour fielded fewer trade unionists and real workers. All are noisier and pushier than their predecessors, resulting in more frantic activity and more pre-cooked questions and debating points. Pressure to speak leaves no time for eloquence or opportunities to deploy specialist knowledge.
"We [older politicians] are not clamouring for promotion or publicity, so we can concentrate on being good parliamentarians. Yet we are discounted as irrelevant failures. The few of us misguided enough to act young by going on Twitter are abused as dinosaurs, geriatrics or out-of-touch idiots. Constituency parties might be supportive but the national party will certainly be merciless in its desire to pick the youthful and the brainless."
BAD DAVE!
Dave was "seriously naughty" not to declare his wife's stake in a company which plans to build hundreds of houses on greenfield land, according to Paul Flynn, a member of the Public Administration Select Committee. Aswe report, following discussions with Sir Jeremy Heywood, Dave decided not to declare his wife's holdings as a relevant interest, although he did find room to mention his role as patron for three charities (no beekeeping duties noted, sadly) and as ambassador for the British Fashion Council. Mr Flynn places the blame at Sir Jeremy's door: "the problem is that when they chose the most recent independent advisers for ministers, they chose a poodle, not a Rottweiler."
TWEETS AND TWITS
Even Jim Murphy concedes the brilliance of the Lib Dem campaign in South Shields:
@jimmurphymp: "Respite for Clegg as Lib Dems humiliate the Monster Raving Loony Party into a sorry 8th place by trouncing them by 154 votes. #southshields"
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Best of the rest 
Philip Collins in The Times (£) - Panic is pointless. Ukip's not a serious party
Chris Roycroft-Davis in the Daily Express - Mass immigration has changed our country for ever
THE AGENDA
Today: Counting of votes in some council elections. Daytime counts include Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, Oxfordshire, Warwickshire and Bristol. Doncaster mayoral election is also a daytime count.
Launch of adoption passport. Education Minister Edward Timpson is launching the adoption passport and responding to the adoption and fostering consultation.
 09:30 am: Insolvency figures for the first quarter of 2013 are released.
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Thursday, 2 May 2013


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Europe will test Coalition.. Ben Brogan's morning briefing


Good morning. David Cameron has made his play to head off trouble tomorrow. He has offered to legislate for a referendum before 2015, raising the prospect of a Coalition-testing parliamentary vote. Westminster is running with rumours that various big beasts are ready to step forward tomorrow night with their verdict on the result of the locals and what it means for the Conservatives. Mr Cameron's show of ankle yesterday must be seen in that context: by accepting  demands from the Tory right for paving legislation in this Parliament, he hopes to counter any stirrings of trouble that might follow Ukip's surge.
The argument in favour of forcing a vote is that it will allow the Tories to put themselves on the right side of a popular issue, leaving the Lib Dems stranded on the wrong one. Tories can't wait to hear Nick Clegg explain in 2015 why he voted against a referendum Bill. However, Dave's move is intended to flush out Labour. Some in the Shadow Cabinet had been urging Ed Miliband to pre-empt Mr Cameron by calling a vote themselves. The Labour leader must now decide where he stands on a referendum, a tricky one internally. Or does he? The thing to consider when studying what Mr Cameron said yesterday is the absence of a firm commitment: will he legislate for an in-out referendum in this Parliament or not? If all he says is that all options are on the table, or words to that effect, it's a pledge that's of no more use than his offer to withdraw temporarily form the ECHR. Having stuck his toe in the water, Mr Cameron may find that he now has no choice but to leap in. Something tells me this is one issue where the PM is going to have to make sure his rhetoric matches reality.
As far as the local elections go, the offer has come too late to make a meaningful impact. In any case, the Ukip showing ahead of the local polls demonstrates that their voter base is concerned with issues beyond Brussels. The Tory party in exile? Peter Oborne makes the case in this morning's Telegraph that Tory voters are wrong to stray:
"This brings us back to Lord Tebbit’s remarks. They might indeed make sense if the Conservative Party had departed from its traditional agenda. But it is hard to think of a more typical Tory prime minister than David Cameron. He stands full in the tradition of Disraeli, Baldwin and Macmillan. He has some clear ideas about what he wants to do, but is cautious and uses craft. Like them, he makes mistakes; like them, he is constantly accused of betrayal. But Mr Cameron (like Baldwin) faces the problem that he is the leader of a coalition government during a time of dire economic crisis. It is essential for the national interest that the Coalition survives, yet Mr Cameron must constantly enter into one undignified contrivance after another to make sure it does so."
But sadly for Dave, all Fleet Street doesn't think this way. Significantly, the Tories have lost the Sun. For the first time in its 44 years, "the Sun is not going to tell you how to vote", its leader proclaims. Appropriately for an election characterised by voter hostility to the established parties, the paper adds that "Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and yes, even Ukip, have all proved beyond your trust." It's a damning argument, and a cynical one, but not even the most true blue of Tory supporters could argue that it doesn't capture a large part of the public mood.
BANK LOSSES A WINNER FOR OSBORNE
The Treasury has given up hope of selling the state's shares in Lloyds and RBS at anything other than a whopping loss, the FT (£) reports. Instead, George's emphasis will be on Alistair Darling over-paying for the controlling interest in both and saddling the taxpayer with the associated debt. The idea is to smooth the path for privatisation before 2015, but when the paper losses are realised, they will be enormous. Currently the combined shortfall on the 82pc holding in RBS and the 39pc holding in Lloyds amounts to £24bn. Sell in haste, repent at leisure? The timing can be criticised, but the politics is clever. Divesting before the 2015 election would improve that year's deficit figures significantly, and the emphasis on Mr Darling paying over the odds would give an opportunity for George to riff on Labour's fiscal irresponsibility. Add to that the possibility of a Tell Sid style public offer, and the temptations are obvious.
Less helpful for George is the intransigence of his colleagues when it comes to departmental cuts. As the Mail reports, most secretaries of state have flatly refused to provide savings totalling 10pc in their spending review submissions. What's more, at least five have discovered claims on the aid budget. Defence, the Foreign Office, Education, BIS and DEFRA are all pitching for funds to cover everything from body armour to malaria jabs. As Stephen Glover points out, that's not necessarily bad for party harmony, though. With Dave intransigent on the aid ringfence, backbenchers might be more prepared to accept DfID's budget if they thought the cash wasn't going on, well, aid.
PAB PANNED
The all-singing, all-dancing new policy advisory board announced last week made headlines, but will the seven backbenchers make policy? Sue Cameron writes for us this morning on the constitutional detail and it looks another case of act first and let the details take care of themselves. While the plan at present is to have the advisers monitoring two or three departments, there's no word on whether they will be given access to official papers. There's also no guarantee that ministers will accord a great deal of weight to their deliberations:
"A Cabinet minister with any balls (why does Home Secretary Theresa May spring to mind?) will not put up with mere backbenchers trampling over their policy turf. Nor will top civil servants. As one insider told me: 'All over Whitehall, permanent secretaries will be saying to their ministers: "What do you want us to do about these backbench policy wonks, Secretary of State? We could shut them out or, better still, we could swamp them. You know, invite them to a few meetings and deluge them with background papers."'
Intriguingly, Sue adds that there are rumblings from the '22 about the "murky" new arrangements. In particular, they are worried that, if collective responsibility applies, its members would not be able to hold executive positions on the Committee (as currently is the case with George Eustice).
PUSHING ON WITH PRESS REFORM
Dave will ignore the wishes of a number of his own MPs, including John Whittingdale the chairman of the Culture, Media and Sport Committee, and reject the newspaper industry's suggestions on press regulation out of hand, the Independent reports. Number 10 does not want to "reopen the issue" and fears any compromise with the industry will lose it the public moral high ground. On a more practical note, it would also run the risk of defeat in the Commons given that the political wing of Hacked Off Labour is set against any perceived dilution, as are the Lib Dems.
SAM CAM DIGS FOR VICTORY
The Chancellor's bid to build Britain's way out of recession has gotten off to a slow start, thanks largely to the intransigence of Tory councils when it comes to planning. Fortunately, Sam Cam is riding to the rescue. As we report, the Prime Minister's wife is a shareholder in her father's company which is seeking to build 1,500 houses on greenfield land in Lincolnshire. Downing Street argues that Mrs Cameron's 3pc holding in Normanby Estate Holdings, which in turn owns half of developer Firecrest Land, is not a "relevant interest" in the view of the Cabinet Secretary.
CABLE-ING ALL STAY AT HOME MOTHERS
Almost a week has passed without Vince Cable attacking one of the Coalition's policies, so it was a relief to hear him proclaim yesterday that he did not share their "prejudice against stay at home mums". Conceding that the tax system penalised those electing to remain at home by failing to allow the transference of the personal allowance between partners, the Business Secretary offered this succour to frustrated parents: "I don't think there is an easy solution, or we would have found it."
THE PRIMARK (DEPUTY) PRIME MINISTER
He may shop without a "moral calculator", but Nick's in the market for a financial bargain when he goes shopping with his children, he told Call Clegg listeners yesterday. The Mail is clearly unconvinced by the DPM's claim to shop in "K-mart", asking "well, have you ever seen the Cleggs in Primark?" The answer to that is no, but I wonder if you can get one of these there?
DIGITAL DAWN STILL DEPENDS ON DAVE
In the company of the trendier sort of Tory backbencher, you often hear the view that the internet can deliver the 2015 election if only the party would campaign online in the fashion of America's Democrats. One problem with that, as Barack Obama's technology chief Harper Read tellsMatt Warman: it's the candidate not the technology who wins the election. "My role was not as important the media wanted it to be. We won because we had the better candidate. If we had won by one or two votes I would say look at the technology," he says.
DAVE PLAYS DIRTY
His Flashman tendency was under wraps yesterday as he studiously avoided being rude to Ukip, but Dave is far ruder than Gordon Brown ever was, according to the University of Manchester. As we report, at least half of those questioning Dave in neutral terms were met with "calm down, dear" or another scything prime ministerial witticism. What happened to the end of Punch and Judy politics?
TWEETS AND TWITS
Toby Perkins is up with the birds, and the Morning Briefing:
@tobyperkinsmp: "4am: election day Time to get up and start delivering"
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Best of the rest 
Martin Kettle in The Guardian - Like the unions, the press has shown us who governs
Trevor Kavanagh in The Sun - My election prediction
Ruth Lea in The Times (£) - No sign of light in the long eurozone tunnel
THE AGENDA
Today: Elections across English regions. Polls take place for 27 top-tier counties which share power with districts, six former shire councils - Cornwall, Durham, Isle of Wight, Northumberland, Shropshire and Wiltshire - which are now unitary authorities and Bristol. There is also a Parliamentary by-election in South Shields and an election on Anglesey. By-election in South Shields to replace former Foreign Secretary David Miliband.
10:30 am: Boris Johnson celebrates Gu Puds 10th anniversary. The Mayor will make a chocolate souffle. The Gu development kitchen, Noble Foods, Unit 4, Forest Works Industrial Estate, Forest Road.
07:00 pm: The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) and XLP conference on how educational failure drives poverty and wider social problems. XLP, All Hallows-on-the-Wall, 83 London Wall.
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