Friday, 7 December 2012

IFS predicts tax rises..



Good morning. It's a thin news day as Westminster draws breath after excitement of the Autumn Statement. The extended post mortem carries over into today's papers, and the coverage is less positive for the Chancellor. When it came to the disastrous Budget earlier this year, the devil was in the detail for Mr Osborne, with the fine print bringing about the Great Pasty Tax Uprising. It could be that the same is true this time around. The IFS announced yesterday that George's sums simply don't add up. Branding as "inconceivable" the scale of the cuts planned in non-protected areas, which would need to run to 30pc in real terms between 2010/11 and 2017/18, the think tank believes that tax rises will need to take their place. As the Telegraph reports, a £27bn tax increase would be needed just to keep protected areas on an even keel in real terms after the next election. Then there is the case of the 5m people theMail asserts will be higher rate tax payers by 2015, a result of fiscal drag capturing 500,000 more people than Treasury projections indicated. A tax intended to capture the extravagantly wealthy is the new normal.
The rich, as the new higher rate taxpayers have been classified, have few friends in Westminster. Senior Labour figures want to devote their efforts to attempting to prevent the 1pc cap on working age benefit rises taking effect, as does the Times (£) which runs an article of the impact on the disabled on its front page, and one on the impact of the bottom 30pcinside. Ed Miliband is mulling his options and may take the electorally unpopular position of opposing the strivers v skivers narrative Mr Osborne has crafted. That is good news for Osborne the strategist, if not Osborne the Chancellor, as is the news that Labour's "Mummy Tax" line (seen here in the Mail) has failed to fly.
Most importantly, though, there is the issue of Ed Balls' stammer. While the Mail concerns itself with the very hostile questioning George Osborne faced from Evan Davis on the Today programme yesterday, the rest of the press pack is asking itself whether the Shadow Chancellor should be treated as disabled. "Red faced Tories braying with stage laughter" upset Margaret Drabble in the Independent, whereas Quentin Letts in the Mail and Dan Hodges in the Telegraph both take the view that the excuse was symptomatic of a man who never concedes responsibility when he made a mistake.
The Chancellor, who once claimed a field for his horse at taxpayers' expense according to today's Mirror, decided yesterday that the AAA rating didn't matter that much after all. That's just as well as it won't be around for long. With a downgrade would come higher borrowing costs which would make Wednesday's path impossible to tread. The Treasury will be happy that Starbucks is to volunteer £20m in tax over the next two years, but it is Britain which needs to start paying its way, and soon.
THE RETURN OF THE THIRD WAY
Dave has identified a third way over press reform, the Telegraph reports. The Prime Minister is considering establishing an independent press regulator by means of a Royal Charter, the same mechanism used to found the Bank of England and the BBC. As a Royal Charter cannot be changed without government assent, the move would prevent the press from unilaterally changing the terms of their regulatory code. The move would also answer many of the objections raised by Labour, who theGuardian reports are soon to publish their own Leveson Act. As for the editors, they're ready to deal, the Mail claims. Lord Hunt and Lord Black are working on the final form of the industry reply, but with poachers and game keepers keen to avert a statutory solution, for once this should solve more problems than it creates.
TORIES ARE THE NASTY PARTY, SAYS FRIEND
Nick Clegg has been doing his best to scotch rumours that relations between the Coalition partners at a senior level had improved after the bonding experience of the Autumn Statement. The Mail reports that Mr Clegg told Ad Lib magazine that the Conservative backbenches lack compassion and that his role was to "yank them back to the centre". Oh well, at least those thoughts put him on Mr Cameron's wavelength, if nothing else.
MR MISUNDERSTOOD
Sir Jeremy Heywood isn't a Rasputin-esque figure thriving in the chaos of the Downing Street machine, Amelia Gentleman writes in her Guardianprofile of the great man. He is, in fact, a misunderstood colossus, propping up successive governments with his Stakhanovite work ethic and refusal to make jokes. Ringing commendations from a number of insiders praise Sir Jeremy for mastering the "art of the possible". The only dissenting voice is Paul Flynn's: "we were expecting to meet pure gold. He turned out to be just another obfuscating civil servant. There was no real thrill," he grumbles.
TWEETS AND TWITS

A little light theology from Tom Harris:

@TomHarrisMP: "I'm not sure I'm taking the correct meaning from my Bible readings, but isn't Job an obnoxious, arrogant sh*t? "
TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Phillip Collins in The Times (£) - Labour must cut its dependency on welfare
Mary Ann Sieghart in The Independent - I used to think more cuts were the answer. But not any more
Quentin Letts in the Daily Mail - Oh, please! Don't play the victim card, Mr Balls
THE AGENDA
Today:  Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg to make series of Regional Growth Fund visits.
10:30 am: High Court action by one of the civil servants suspended following the West Coast rail franchise fiasco. Kate Mingay, the Department for Transport's commercial and technical services director, was one of three DfT officials suspended after the Government pulled the plug on the West Coast bidding process earlier this autumn. She is applying for an injunction prohibiting the continuation of her suspension. The Royal Courts of Justice, The Strand,
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Thursday, 6 December 2012


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Balls blames his stammer..



BREAKING NEWS: The Chancellor has appeared on the Today programme. A fractious interview saw him defend both his accounting methods and the economy's progress:
"The money we get from the 4G receipts enables us, in the round, to help fund capital investments. It's all part of a whole. It's a pretty  desperateattempt this story, being put around by the Labour party.
"There is a big increase in the personal allowance which goes to help people on low incomes. There is also the freeze in fuel duty. We want to help people who work hard and want to get on. We are asking more for working age benefits...there is a general equity in our approach."
Earlier, Ed Balls told the programme that "the Chancellor is borrowing £200bn more than he said he would two years ago". He als0 blamed yesterday's deficit up/deficit down debacle on his stammer which "sometimes gets the better of me in the first minute or two when I speak".
PAIN TODAY, PAIN TOMORROW
Good morning. George Osborne might be losing the war, but yesterday he won the battle. Given a terrible hand to play, consisting of downgraded growth forecasts and sluggish tax revenues, he produced a mini-budget which will please his party without alienating the wider country (see the Telegraph's exhaustive coverage here). As I wrote in myTelegraph column, he also appears to have avoided any major gaffe while setting up Labour to vote against a cap on the rate of increase in working age benefits.
Coalition unity was another big winner. Scraps over boundary reviews or green energy have taken a backseat to the demands of economic necessity. The Quad are working with renewed vigour and purpose, the common enemy is in disarray over its economic policies. Suddenly Labour's poll lead looks as though it may prove fragile under the glare of an election campaign. Robert Halfon, of course, proved the backbench winner, having successfully fought against the scheduled 3p rise in fuel duty. For his next trick, Mr Halfon will campaign for a 10p flat rate of tax, the Independent's Diary (not online yet) claims.
The fly in the ointment is the dark clouds forming over Britain's triple-A rating. The Telegraph reports that Fitch were already making ominous noises last night, arguing that "missing the target weakens the credibility of the fiscal framework". Those dark clouds now also loom over Ed Balls. The Shadow Chancellor put in a poor display at the dispatch box yesterday, although he made up for it with an assured performance as Father Christmas at the parliamentary children's Christmas party later in the day. The Mail's Quentin Letts took some pleasure in the "most marvellous comic incomprehension" which adorned Mr Miliband's face as disaster unfolded. His party needs to pick its poison, and fast. Being anti-deficit and anti-cuts at the same time just isn't cutting it.
Lead columns have reacted to the Autumn Statement with fortitude andforbearance. The Telegraph thought the Chancellor "commendably grim", and while the Times (£) thought Mr Osborne's strategy "depended on luck", it still praised an "assured performance". The FT's (£) Jonathan Guthrie was less complimentary, likening the display to rap music, "loud but lack[ing] substance". In contrast, the Mail's Max Hastings contrasted the Chancellor's harsh medicine with Mr Balls' "economic poison", while the Guardian's Martin Kettle conceded that the Chancellor experienced an "exhilarating outcome". The real problem, though, might not be the plans but the assumptions on which they rest. As Jeremy Warner notes in the Telegraph:
"The lower growth turns out to be, the higher borrowing will go. Right at the start of this crisis I wrote a long piece explaining why Britain was unlikely to turn out like Japan, with its spiralling public debt and lost decades of growth. We have too dynamic an economy, I wrote, for that to happen. I wish I could still be so confident."
UK AID BUYS WINDFARMS FOR WALMART
There might be many sat behind him who disagree with spending several million pounds of taxpayers' money building a windfarm in Mexico to power Walmart's local stores, as the Telegraph reports this morning, but Greg Barker is not for turning. The Climate Minister warned colleagues that the nation would "pay the price in British lives" if it stopped providing climate change linked aid, the Times (£) notes. After all, those US corporate types can cut up rough...
FLEET STREET FLEET FOOTED IN BACKING LEVESON
Over breakfast at Delaunay yesterday, Fleet Street's finest united in support for almost all of the 47 of Lord Justice Leveson's  recommendations concerning an independent regulatory body for the press. The new system will be able to levy fines of up to £1m and will offer an arbitration process reducing the financial burden imposed by libel actions.
Sticking points, according to the Independent, included Lord Justice Leveson's proposal that lay people, not editors, draft the new standards code, and the involvement of Ofcom in the new system. Overall, though, consensus has formed fast, and it looks as though the industry will justify the Prime Minister's decision to allow it to put its house in order before taking a statutory approach.
HEYWOOD HARANGUED
The "sinuous figure" of Sir Jeremy Heywood comes in for a trashing from Stephen Glover in this morning's Mail. The mandarin's article in a "low circulation newspaper" (the Independent, to be precise), in which he claims that Britain is the "most open and transparent country in the world", angers Mr Glover who cites Freedom of Information Act exemptions, the  Special Immigration Appeals Commission, Whitehall quangos and Leveson as reasons to be jeer-ful when it comes to that claim. He adds:
"Some transparency! We are still treated like children who have little right to know what is being done on our behalf. The notion that releasing some general statistics about our lives will lead to greater openness is laughable. Or, to put it another way, is the positively mysterious Sir Jeremy Heywood, courtesy of the editor of the Independent, having a very good joke at our expense?"
EBACC "UNWORKABLE" SAYS OFQUAL
Michael Gove has been warned that his plan for a system to replace GCSE exams is "unworkable" according to the Guardian. The Education Secretary appeared before the Commons education select committee yesterday, but told members that Ofqual was yet to give a reason for its stance. Mr Gove has said he will press ahead with the reforms anyway if convinced they are in pupils' best interests.
QUESTION TIME PANEL
Tonight's Question Time will be broadcast from Liverpool. The panel is Francis Maude, Andy Burnham, Tim Farron, Financial Times editor Lionel Barber and the Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood.
TWEETS AND TWITS

Douglas Carswell delivers his post-Autumn Statement briefing:

@DouglasCarswell: "If you run the economy like Gordon Brown, you end up with the same sort of economic mess. #ContinuityBrownFail"
TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Patrick O'Flynn in the Daily Express - It's a hard road but we are getting there, slowly
Steve Richards in The Independent - Clegg is a casualty but Balls has no easy options
THE AGENDA
Today:  Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg to make series of Regional Growth Fund visits.
07:30 am: Road Safety Minister Stephen Hammond launches this year's Designated Driver campaign. Mason Arms, Maddox Street.
09:30 am: TaxPayers' Alliance and Institute of Economic Affairs briefing on the Autumn Statement. Speakers include: Andrea Leadsom, Ruth Lea, Matthew Sinclair, Andrew Lilico. The TaxPayers' Alliance, 55 Tufton Street.
09:45 am: The Commons Public Accounts Committee takes evidence on tax avoidance schemes. Committee Room 15, House of Commons.
01:00 pm: Autumn Statement 2012: IFS analysis briefing. The Building Centre, Store Street.
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Wednesday, 5 December 2012


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Autumn statement, winter blues..


Good morning. It's a difficult day for George Osborne, who has nothing much in the way of good news to offer, and plenty of bad. For public consumption he needs to give an honest assessment of where we are and what the next five years look like. His only chance of making the Tories electable in 2015 lies in persuading the voters that he and David Cameron, more than anyone else, are the best guarantors of sustainable, affordable recovery. But his other task is to shore up his share price in Westminster and in particular on the Tory benches. As Tim Montgomerierightly points out, he is a powerful Chancellor who enjoys the full support of the First Lord of the Treasury, but he is also a Tory whose use of power in Cabinet is a times seen as capricious, counter-productive and self-serving. The number of his Cabinet and backbench enemies is growing, in part because his approach is seen by some as bullying. There is nothing wrong with that, of course, but only if he can demonstrate that he wields his stick with a purpose. Today he will be watched by his own side for evidence that he has a plan and that it is credible.
What was a five year deficit reduction plan now looks to be an eight year scheme, with the FT (£) reporting that the Chancellor will confirm that austerity will be here until 2018 at the least. Stagnant growth over the Coalition's term has meant tax revenues are behind those projected by the Treasury and OBR at the time of the Budget. As a consequence the deficit is up and falling debt levels are still a pipe dream. As theTelegraph reports, the Chancellor's headline move will be to bolster infrastructure spending by making £5bn of cuts to Whitehall budgets. Around 100 new free schools are expected to be built as a result of the investment spending. The Independent puts the number of jobs in the firing line at 13,000. Cuts are also coming the way of the police, social care and flood defences, according to the Times (£), who add that the Chancellor will also raid the banks for a fifth time, requiring them to hand over a larger portion of their balance sheets in tax. The good news? The planned 3p per litre rise in fuel duty will be put on ice again. The Suncalculates that the move will save the average driver £7.69 a month, although given the political impossibility of forcing high pump prices higher still, a more straight-forward approach might be to strip the duty escalator out of future assumptions altogether. There will also be a pitch for the Beijing buck, with shopping visas for Chinese visitors rushed through. That's bad news for Theresa May who opposed the move when it was mooted in August. It's not quite as bad as the news for the Lib Dems, however - there won't be a mansion tax in sight today.
Switching spending from current to infrastructure spending serves a point. After 2015 the Tories hope they will be freed from the shackles of their Lib Dem partners, something which would allow them to cut harder and faster than they have been under the Coalition Agreement. One-off capital spending can be stripped out more painlessly than current spending, meaning that a shift in the balance between the two paves the way for future cuts while staying true to agreed spending levels. The bad news is that the Chancellor's infrastructure projects have a habit of failing to materialise. The Guardian points out that less than half of the infrastructure spend promised last November has been spent, and none of the £21bn of private sector investment which was anticipated has arrived either. This year's £5bn increase in investment will, the paper claims, have a "negligible effect" on growth. That's a pity, because George needs to find some somewhere. The OBR are set to cut today's 2012 growth forecast from 0.8pc to zero, and 2013 from 2pc to 1pc.  
What needs to be done? More of the same, says the Mail, which praises the Chancellor as a "beacon of realism in a sea of greens" in its leader. TheTelegraph and the Times (£) both use their leader columns to call for a more honest approach to the scale of the Government's debt addiction and the time it will take to fix the public finances. John Redwood, writing in the Guardian, argues that it is the monetary straight-jacket hampering the Chancellor, not the fiscal balancing act. While Mary Riddell argues in the Telegraph that George Osborne is happy in the mad axeman role and it is Ed Balls who has an identity crisis, many are worried that the axe is far too blunt. In the Times (£) Danny Finkelstein argues that the Chancellor's strategy will not work if the public feels he is failing to make progress, while the Telegraph's Allister Heath worries that the Mr Osborne doesn't have it in him to stop the rot:
"Osborne is stuck in a vicious circle of his own making. Low growth is making it impossible to cut spending, tax and eventually debt as a share of the economy; and excessively high spending, tax and debt are one of the main drivers of low growth. We are moving inexorably towards the levels of government debt identified by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in This Time it is Different, as the threshold above which meaningful growth is all but impossible."
For industry leading coverage of the Autumn Statement as it unfolds, visit the Telegraph's dedicated website section. In addition to our rolling blog, Damian Reece and I will be presenting live video commentary before and after the Chancellor speaks. We will also have the most comprehensive news, comment and graphics coverage in Fleet Street. Don't miss out.
HUNT REBUKED OVER NHS
In a week when spending promises will be under the spotlight, the Government's statistics watchdog has rebuked David Cameron and Jeremy Hunt over their claim that spending on the NHS has risen under the Coalition. Andrew Dilnot wrote to Mr Hunt warning him that real terms NHS spending in 2011-12 was lower than in 2009-10, although he added that "given the small size of the changes and the uncertainties associated with them, it might also be fair to say that real terms expenditure had changed little over this period." The Independentreports that the Department of Health's response when challenged was to praise itself for a 0.1pc rise in real terms spending between 2009-10 and 2010-11. A classic example of "if you don't like the question, answer another one".
I GUESS THE WIND'S DOWN IN AFRICA
Tourists visiting the African scrublands in the hope to glimpsing the wildlife will soon be able to photograph one of the "wonderful" and "rather majestic" windfarms so beloved of Greg Barker. Mr Barker's boss Ed Davey has pledged £2bn in aid to take green power to the Third World, the Telegraph reports. The breakdown includes £15m to low-Carbon farming in Colombia, £100m on wind and solar powe in Africa, and a separate £15m for Ugandan wind turbines. The sum equates to £70 per household. "A fool and his money are easily parted," Jacob Rees-Mogg warned sagely from the backbenches.
EU'RE JUST IMMORAL
Dave is planning to offer an in/out EU referrendum in a major speech on Europe in the new year, according to the Times (£). Dave would prefer to offer a loose/tight poll on the extent to which Britain binds itself to the EU's core projects, but his strategists worry that such a move would simply be grist to the UKIP mill. The Boris mill, too. The Mayor of London has been calling loudly for a radical renegotiation, and the Prime Minister can outstrip him within the Tory party by offering the in/out poll the base are after. His speech on the subject yesterday ended, as theTelegraph's Michael Deacon noted, with a quote from a Clint Eastwood film. Shortly before delivering it, Clint disposes of his much hated superior. Boris must have forgotten.
LOST: GORDON'S PET
Gordon Brown has lost his pet stick insect, the Independent laments. Any suggestions as to where it might be will be gratefully received by the former Prime Minister's wife via Twitter. You could write to him via Parliament, but even given the rather sedate pace of the breed, it is likely to have moved on by the time he makes his next foray down to the Big Smoke.
TWEETS AND TWITS

John Hayes may not be Ed Davey's favourite underling but he makes one MP very happy:

@danielbyles: "Listening to John Hayes answering Select Committee questions is always a pleasure. He is so unfailingly polite and courteous."
TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Daniel Finkelstein in The Times (£) - That bid deficit is a bogey: avoid at all costs
John Redwood in The Guardian - What George really wants
Ben Gummer in The FT (£) - It is vital that we continue the struggle against public debt
Ian Birrell in the Daily Mail - What the NHS needs even more than money - a dost of kindness
THE AGENDA
10:15 am: Michael Gove will appear before the Education Committee. The Education Secretary will be quizzed the Commons Education Committee on reforming Key Stage 4 qualifications. Portcullis House, London.
10:30 am: Defence Secretary Philip Hammond gives evidence to Joint Committee on National Security Strategy. Committee Room 4a, House of Commons.
12:00 pm: Prime Ministers Questions. House of Commons.
12:30 pm: Chancellor George Osborne delivers his Autumn Statement. House of Commons.
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Tuesday, 4 December 2012


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Kate expectations..


Good morning. Congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge who announced yesterday that they were expecting their first child. Whether boy or girl, the child will grow up, all being well, to become head of state in 16 countries, breaking with 300 years of male primogeniture. Downing Street made clear that the agreement in Perth last year between the heads of Commonwealth governments would be sufficient to change the rules of succession without an act of Parliament. The Telegraph's James Kirkup analyses the constitutional implications in today's paper, adding that Nick Clegg is still keen to make a legal change, along with the de facto one already in existence. The birth-right of the first born male isn't the first royal birth tradition to have been tossed aside, of course - the Times (£) reports that Theresa May will be relieved she is no longer expected to attend the birth, as Sir William Joynson-Hicks did in 1926.
Will the baby be called Elizabeth? Will there be twins? Was the baby conceived thanks to "the magical love-powers of coconuts and Brussels sprouts" as the Star insists? We don't know. But prepare for another six months of similar questions.
OSBORNE SAVED BY GIFT OF THE GAS?
Having already floated his schemes to target £10bn in Swiss bank accounts, tax avoiding multi-nationals, and those saving for pensions, the Chancellor's latest wheeze is gas energy. The FT (£) splashes on the news that George Osborne will use his Autumn Statement to set out a strategy for gas which will include up to 30 gas fired power stations providing 26 gigawatts of electricity. If Britain's Carbon budget was revised upwards, that capacity could rise to 37 gigawatts, or roughly half of Britain's generation capacity. Although the move will concern those members of the Coalition who view the world through green tinted spectacles, it is consistent with the change in the subsidy structure which Ed Davey announced earlier this month. The question now is whether Britain can exploit its shale gas reserves and supply the raw material. An acid test of economic need versus political NIMBYism is already brewing in Cheshire. The Independent reports that Mr Osborne's Tatton seat is "ripe for fracking". Presumably he will campaign for it enthusiastically.
Growth is expected to be sharply down when the OBR forecasts are revealed tomorrow. Debt and deficit spending will be up. TheIndependent has replicated the OBR's methodology and sees borrowing up by between £10bn and £15bn on forecasts next year owing to sluggish GDP growth (0.3pc against a 0.9pc forecast) and depressed taxreceipts. Cuts are being made, as the Guardian's graphic shows, but while they're hurting, they aren't yet working. This is being met stoically by the British public, for now, as Janan Ganesh notes in the FT (£). He argues that the lack of fury when the Chancellor extended austerity measures beyond 2015 speaks of a nation resigned to taking its medicine for a while yet. As I write in my Telegraph column, it is grudging public respect for tough choices now which informs the Conservative election strategy:
"Mr Osborne will invite us to agree that the Tories are making big, statesmanlike calls on major issues and leading what he has described as a government of "profound, long-lasting change". Even those battles Mr Cameron is choosing to fight, on issues that give many Tories the vapours – planning, gay marriage, minimum alcohol pricing – are presented as positions taken not because they are popular, but because – in his terms – they are right."
Whatever happens in the Autumn Statement, the main protagonists know they face being skewered by the deadly wit of the Telegraph'sChristian Adams who deservedly won Political Cartoonist of the Year at last night's CAT awards. Many congratulations to Christian from all of us at the Telegraph.
LEVESON LAWS "CHINESE"
Yesterday's Leveson debate was badly attended, given the fuss which MPs of all stripes have made over the findings. At one point fewer than 30 MPs adorned the green benches. Perhaps they have already made up their minds. The task of rebuffing calls for an immediate statutory solution fell to Maria Miller. Although the minister did not rule out legislating eventually, she has successfully made the argument that national newspaper editors, who she will meet today with David Cameron, ought to be given time to implement the proposals under their own steam. It should be a productive meeting. There is talk of editors being asked to sign a joint undertaking on reform, and the Times (£) reports that Mr Cameron will hold the industry's "feet to the fire" in order to get agreement. The editors stand to gain in the long-run. Plans to shelve Labour's green paper introducing a Leveson Law are well advanced, according to the Mail, and it suits the purposes of both sides to come to a tough but voluntary arrangement.
While Mrs Miller was diplomatic in the Commons yesterday, Theresa Coffey was more forthright. The Telegraph reports that the ministerial aide said she found "interference with the activities of the media" to be something better suited to the "Congress of China". The Mail's Quentin Letts praised Mrs Miller as she "rode the seas like a tugboat going about its business". The Telegraph's Michael Deacon was equally unequivocal in his description of her opposite number:
"Harriet Harman, who had already made a lengthy statement on Thursday about why self-regulation would no longer do, and said the same thing on TV at the weekend, rose to repeat her views. 'The definition of insanity,' she cried, 'is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different outcome!' Presumably, then, that was her final word on the subject."
BOLES BULLDOZED BY OFFICIALS
Nick Boles' decree that an area of greenfield land twice the size of greater London was required for development if England was to avoid a housing crisis came as a shock to many in his party, and his department as well, according to this morning's Times (£). The Department for Communities and Local Government said that there were "no new targets" and that Mr Boles was using baseline figures which were five years out of date. Moreover, "this department does not set top-down Whitehall housing targets". Two million acres of green and pleasant land are spared the axe then, but surely a minister armed with ancient information and no idea of his department's role is a damning indictment of those same civil servants sniffing at Mr Boles in this morning's Times?
TODAY THE ENERGY-GO-ROUND STOPS ON...GREEN!
Windfarms, don'tcha love 'em? Or hate them. The answer, of course, depends on which minister at the Department of Energy and Climate Change you're speaking to. Today, it's Greg Barker's turn to slap down colleague John Hayes. Mr Barker tells the FT (£) that wind farms are "wonderful" and "rather majestic". Indeed the public have taken one near his constituency so much to heart that it has become "almost a tourist attraction". Next week: John Hayes on how wind farms are destroying Britain's tourism industry.
COALITION 2015 MANOUVERING STARTS NOW
Labour's latest bout of mischief making consensus building gets under-way today with the launch of "Labour for Democracy", a group backed by senior party figures and tasked with finding areas of cooperation with other progressive parties. Significantly, the Independent reports that Ed Miliband's PPS John Denham is one of the driving forces behind the group, suggesting a degree of official sanction. While Labour cannot yet make public overtures towards the Lib Dems for fear of showing electoral vulnerability, they are probably right in thinking that even whispers of support / demands for regicide as a prelude to coalition, will be enough to prick the ears of a certain Business Secretary.
PART-TIME WAGES FOR PART-TIME MPS
Many MPs manage to juggle their demanding schedule in parliament with second jobs such as barrister, chic lit author, or reality TV contestant. However, this morning's Telegraph reports that, as a result, new Ipsa board member Professor Tony Wright believes they should be paid less. He also suggested performance related pay. There is already precendent for pay docking in the form of MPs who also hold seats in the Northern Ireland assembly. The question with the latter suggestion, though, is how do you measure performance? I suspect the public, the whips, and the MPs themselves may all have very different ideas.
DAVE DUCKS NOBEL PRIZE
Dave's new tough on Europe, tough on the causes of Europe stance means there was never the slightest chance of him going to help Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and the gang collect the Nobel Peace Prize next Monday. But what are friends for? Nick Clegg has stepped into the breach, the Independent reports. Aides say Mr Clegg will take the opportunity to have high-level discussions with EU leaders on banking reform and the EU budget. No doubt he will stick to Dave's line throughout.
MR TONY, I PRESUME
Nicole Scherzinger was at Number 10 last night, where she helped Dave turn on his Christmas tree's fairy lights. This year, the Independentreports that she even recognised Mr Cameron. The last time she was invited to meet the Prime Minister, she was a little underwhelmed:
"They said they were introducing me to the Prime Minister and he came over, and I was like, 'Where's Tony Blair?' I thought it was still him. Someone had to tell me. I was a real ass." 
TWEETS AND TWITS

Maria Miller's Leveson statement allows Kerry McCarthy to cry "house!":

@Kerrymp: "She’s said it 4 times now. #statusquoisnotanoptionbingo But not making it clear what is (an option). #Leverson"
TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Steve Richards in The Independent - The OBR seemed such a good idea George
Rachel Sylvester in The Times (£) - In the battle of the budget, who's fair wins
THE AGENDA
TODAY: David Cameron and Maria Miller meet newspaper editors. The Prime Minister and the Culture Secretary will hold talks with editors on the recommendations made by Lord Justice Leveson. Meeting will be late morning, precise timing to be confirmed.
09:00 am: Annual Family Spending Report - ONS Media Briefing. The annual ONS Family Spending report provides a snapshot of the changing spending patterns of UK households. The latest report contains headline indicators for the UK, plus Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the nine English regions. Westminster Room, Church House, Dean's Yard.
09:00 am: Boris Johnson speech on Europe. To be treamed live onhttp://blogs.reuters.com/trnewsmaker/ The Thomson Reuters Building 30 South Colonnade Canary Wharf London, E14 5EP.
04:00 pm: Energy Minister John Hayes gives evidence on the Energy Bill to the Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee. Committee Room 15, House of Commons.
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Monday, 3 December 2012


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Pre-autumn statement gloom..



Good morning. It's autumn statement week, but there's no Sunday for Monday belter in the papers to take us further forward. Beyond what George Osborne told Marr - that it was all looking worse than he had hoped - we aren't much further forward. Welfare will be cut, the rich will pay more by whacking their pensions (taxing the future to pay for the present), some extra cash will go to infrastructure. It is worth noting that so far the secrecy around the Autumn Statement has held. Mr Osborne vowed to press the Lib Dems for greater self-discipline after they allowed the main contents of the Budget to leak, leaving the Chancellor's strategy in a mess, and it appears to have worked. It may also be, of course, that there isn't much good news to share. Unlike the Budget run-up, when he jetted off to the US to meet Barack Obama, Mr Osborne is said this time to be scrutinising the detail of the statement to check for booby traps. He will need to have convincing answers to hand - when even the Guardianis attacking you for having "deficit-reduction [which is] off-track" in Larry Elliott's front page op-ed, it's a fair sign that performance is lagging aspiration. What has emerged so far is not promising - lower tax-free pension thresholds, a fresh assault on tax-dodging multi-nationals, nothing transformative. As Jeremy Warner points out, it is the lack of growth which is overshadowing all the Chancellor's other plans. The Mailasserts that austerity will be with us until 2018 at the earliest, it will be here rather longer unless either spending moves down or tax revenues improve. The Telegraph's leader column questions whether the Chancellor is focusing on the right side of the equation:
"For all the talk of austerity and savage cuts, the Treasury is still expecting to spend £756 billion in 2016–17, compared with £683 billion this year. While the Coalition aims to reduce the proportion of GDP taken by the state to around 40 per cent, in many of our competitor nations outside Europe it is closer to 30 per cent. Mr Osborne's main task in his Autumn Statement is less to cut debt to a particular point by a specific date than to demonstrate that he has not lost sight of his central goal – to spend less of our money."
The headlines this morning are all about tax collection. George believes that £10bn is up for grabs in Swiss bank accounts belonging to "fat cats", multi-national businesses and other bogey-men, the Sun reports. The Chancellor will spend £154m buying more tax investigators, the paper adds, but the point remains that multi-national businesses like Google are entitled to structure their holding operations in whichever way they wish. Extra tax collectors will have a hard job claiming £10bn in revenue when much of the total moved off-shore has been moved legally.
George's other wheeze is cutting the threshold for tax free pension contributions. Cut to £50,000 when he came to office, today's Telegraphconfirms last month's FT (£) story that the limit may in fact be slashed to £30,000. All part of the Chancellor's plan to improve personal responsibility.
MAY ESCALATES ROW WITH CLEGG
Following an appalling by-election showing, Nick Clegg might be forgiven for wondering who his party's natural constituency is. Fortunately, Theresa May is on hand in this morning's Sun to point out that "criminals, terrorists and paedophiles" will be applauding his opposition to her Communications Data Bill. Relations between the pair, already frosty, are hardly likely to be improved by Mrs May's comment that "the people who say they’re against this bill need to look victims of serious crime, terrorism and child sex offences in the eye and tell them why they’re not prepared to give the police the powers they need to protect the public." She has certainly convinced the Sun, whose leader takes up the Clegg-bashing with some enthusiasm, calling him a "danger man" who is "overwhelmed by civil liberties angst". Oh well, Nick may have lost the Sun, but now he has the criminal vote sown up, votes for prisoners must be looking a lot more appealing.
TORY BACKBENCHERS SOFTEN ON LEVESON
The number of Tory MPs willing to defy the party leadership over Leveson and votes for statutory regulation of the press is "thinning" according to the Times (£). Both Chris Skidmore and Bob Stewart have joined a list which the Sunday Telegraph revealed already included Jackie Doyle-Price and George Freeman. Parliament will debate the findings of the Leveson Inquiry this afternoon at around 3pm, but it will not vote. In a bid to postpone that vote indefinitely, Dave will join editors in their meeting with Maria Miller this week and urge them to implement self-regulation 2.0 in time to head off Ed Miliband's push to divide the House on Leveson in January. Laying the groundwork for that vote, this morning's Telegraph reports that Harriet Harman will use today's cross-party talks with Maria Miller and Simon Hughes to unveil Labour's plans to draft its own legislation covering statutory regulation. There is a sense that the tide has turned against legislation. As the Sun's Trevor Kavanagh attests, Ed Miliband's "heart isn't really in [government regulation of the press] he just wants to make trouble for the Tories. That's his job."  Making trouble for the Tory leadership is also the Boris Johnson's job, and he is against a statutory solution, too. As he writes in this morning's Telegraph:
"[Lord Justice Leveson] seems to want to make the British press as earnest as the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, whose front-page splash was once about '100 years of Electric Light in Switzerland'. He wants above all to create a system whereby newspapers would be compulsorily regulated by law – licensed – for the first time since the 17th century. He must be resisted... We want a vital and exuberant media that reports the foibles of the rulers, without fear or favour but also without lying and cheating and cruelty. If the papers get it right, and act fast, they can rebuild trust, and they may also be able to rebuild some of that lost circulation."
VINCE BROADENS THE BIG TENT
Coalition with the Conservatives is going so well that Vince Cable believes that it might be time to invite Ukip to the party. The Business Secretary's interview on Radio 4 is quoted in today's Telegraph, and finds him expressing his hope that the Coalition would be able to "engage with them on the big issues". He added it would be an "insult" to the electorate if the party was not "taken seriously" following last week's by-election results. Of course, there is one senior Cabinet member who refuses to take a party stacked with "loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists" seriously. Perhaps Vince could have a word.
GURU WATCH
Two amusing items from Andrew Pierce's diary in today's Mail. The first is on Ed Miliband's latest intellectual crush. Professor Marc Stears will certainly be handy when Ed is in need of a soundbite. "The distinctive advantage of resource egalitarianism over its leading egalitarian rivals lies in its ability to combine a commitment to an ideal of equality with a dedication to a fully non-perfectionist account of the human good," Prof. Stears comments wryly in a tub-thumping article on equality. It isn't going much better in the blue corner. Nick Boles received a gift this week - a thesaurus sent to him by former Tory darling Phillip Blond after the former criticised the latter's love of "big words".
CIVIL SERVANTS: LIVING DANGEROUSLY
Working at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office can be bad for your health, according to the Mail. Junior staff at the department took an average of 24.4 sick days off a year last year, against a private sector average of 5.8. Proximity to the private sector work ethic obviously failed to improve immunity levels at BIS either. The department came in second with 19.6 sick days per employee last financial year.
PREZZA THREATENS GAG OVER COMMUNIST CONNECTIONS
Lord Prescott has threatened Channel 4 with an injunction over a Dispatches programme investigating his links with officials in the country, the Mail reports. He is not the only senior politician with a Dispatches problem. The Prime Minister banned ministers from meeting the Dalai Lama during the G20's crisis talks on the eurozone, theTelegraph notes. Tim Loughton and Norman Barker were barred from a lunch held for the Tibetan spiritual leader at the Speaker's apartment, and later wrote to the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary in protest. There is no record of a response. 
TWEETS AND TWITS

The unjustly self-depreciating Pat McFadden:

@patmacfaddenmp: "Photo has disappeared from my Twitter account. Not a loss to anyone else I admit."
TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Leo McKinstry in the Daily Express - Don't write off the coalition...look at its vital successes
Tim Montgomeries in The Times (£) - Hunt turns his guns on shameful hospitals
Edward Luce in the FT (£) - America's Thelma and Louise moment
THE AGENDA
TODAY: General debate on the Leveson Inquiry (around 3:00pm).
09:30 am: Cabinet Office publishes updated cyber security strategy.
12:40 pm: Photocall with Boris Johnson and England Rugby 2015 ambassador Lawrence Dallaglio. Boris Johnson and Lawrence Dallaglio will be with the Webb Ellis Cup ahead of the Pool Allocation Draw. Potters Field, City Hall.
05:30 pm: Downing Street Christmas Tree lights to be switched on.
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