Crisis? What Crisis?

Theresa May talks to Peter Dominiczak as she prepares to unveil the Counter-Terrorism and Security Bill. Among the topics: Britain is at greater risk now than "at any time before or after 9/11" - "Jihadi Attack On UK 'Inevitable" is the Mail's splash - there is a "changing mood within Europe" as far as migration is concerned, and social media websites must take further responsibility for policing online extremism.

But it's the Home Secretary's comments on Conservatives' cap on migration that catch the eye: "Coalition abandons target to reduce migration" is our splash. "We have been blown off course by the rise in European migration," Mrs May admits. That, the Sun declares in its leader "states the bleeding obvious". The failure of these "grand promises" is "undermining confidence in the entire system" says Yvette Cooper.

Yep: that little-discussed topic of immigration is finally being aired. The PM has a big speech coming down the track that will likely focus on denying tax credits to European migrants - Mats Persson makes the case in favour in today's Telegraph - in what's hoped will put the issue to bed so that the Conservatives can get back to their favoured territory of the economy.

Also giving a big speech this week is former Cabinet minister Owen Paterson -"The Eurozone has embarked upon a path that we can never follow", Mr Paterson will say - who will call for the PM to trigger exit negotiations after winning a second term, to better concentrate minds in Brussels in advance of the PM's renegotiation. He's also sat down with Tim Montgomerie for an interview in the Times. "Most Ukip voters want robust and Conservative policies," Mr Paterson declares. (What, like renationalising the railways?)

One suspects that, for all his flat denial of ambitions to further power, Mr Paterson, like Ed Miliband, sees a future Prime Minister when he looks in the mirror. When the speech was planned there was the expectation - the hope, perhaps - that it would be under the backdrop of anxiety around the PM's position and Conservative disquiet over Europe. For all the backdrop of reverses over immigration and another divisive speech to come, David Cameron is on course to end what should have been an awful month on top and on course to overhaul Ed Miliband in the polls. It may well be that Owen Paterson is the only person angrier about Emily Thornberry's tweeting than the Leader of the Opposition.



Adams cartoon November 24, 2014

CAREFUL, DARLING

The cross-party Smith Commission will publish its blueprint for further devolution this week and is expected to recommend handing full control of income tax, as well as sweeping welfare powers, to the Scottish Parliament, Auslan Cramb reports. But the reported deal over tax powers has been thrown into doubt after all three candidates for the leadership of the Scottish Labour party all refused to back the plans, while Alistair Darling has warned that giving Scotland full power over income tax would end in "floods of tears" in an article for the FT. Mr Darling warns that a botched settlement could leave Britain like the Eurozone: "an integrated monetary union without a fiscal union".

INQUIRIES INTO INQUIRIES
The official inquiry into the murder of Lee Rigby will clear the security services of criticism, but the report itself is under fire, with claims that it failed to speak to witnesses, including those from Michael Adebolajo's family, who say that the security services themselves contributed to radicalising Mr Adebolajo. Reclusive MP Keith Vaz says that "these people have to be talked to. It does not have to be in public - it could be private". Sir Malcolm Rifkind says that people were free to write to the inquiry if they so desired, and the onus was on them. "Rigby inquiry 'failed to seek out witnesses'" is the Guardian's splash.

DEGRADE THE DEROGATION
Ed Miliband will pledge to stop large firms using job agencies to avoid paying sick and holiday pay, Jason Beattie reports in the Mirror. The Labour leader will aim to bring an end to an EU regulation - the so-called "Swedish derogation" - that allows agency workers to be paid less than regular employees.
THE GREEN GENIE

The Indy is doing a series on the Green Party this week, and Nigel Morris sits down with that party's first MP, Caroline Lucas. As well as defending Ms Lucas' Brighton Pavilion seat, the party will also seek to take two seats from the Liberal Democrats - Bristol West and Norwich South - at the next election.

THANKS FOR ALL YOU DID
Gordon Brown will "imminently" announce that he is stepping down as an MP, Nicola Harley reports, very probably before Christmas. In other news, Labour's special selections panel will take charge of parliamentary selections from December.


You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?


24.11.2014

Conservatives 33% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 15% Green 5% (Ashcroft-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 17.11.2014-24.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

Opinium: Conservatives 30% Lab 33% LD 7% Ukpp 19% Green 4%

Populus: Conservatives 33% Labour 36% LD 9% Ukip 14% Green 4%
YouGov(Sun on Sunday): Con 33% Lab 34% LD 8% Ukip 15%

YouGov(Sunday Times): Con 33% Lab 33% LD 7% Ukip 16% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@mlpfoster: "I'm sorry Prime Minister. You're trending on Twitter." "Very well, inform Her Majesty. We had a good run, didn't we?"

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Boris Johnson - Give Ed Miliband a Darwin Award for sacking Emily Thornberry

Dan Hodges - Gordon Brown failed us all. Will anyone miss him?

From elsewhere

Libby Purves -MPs drift away from us like doomed polar bears (Times)

Matthew Elliot - Rochester has killed the politics of triangulation (City AM)

AGENDA

0900 LONDON: Met Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley launching counter-terrorism awareness week.

1030 LONDON: Owen Paterson speech on Britain and the EU.

1100 LONDON: A legal dispute over letters the Prince of Wales wrote to government ministers reaches the UK's highest court.

1100 LONDON: Theresa May speech on counter-terrorism.

1145 LONDON: Nick Clegg press conference.

1200 LONDON: Boris Johnson to join some of world's best wheelchair tennis players as they demonstrate their skills ahead of the forthcoming NEC Wheelchair Tennis Masters.

1630 LONDON: Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson and Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie give evidence to Commons Political and Constitutional Reform Committee.

1800 LONDON: Margaret Hodge speech on reconnecting politics with communities.

2235 LONDON: Grant Shapps, Germaine Greer and the Telegraph's Emma Barnett among the guests on ITV's The Agenda.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons

Defence Questions.

Recall Bill - report stage and third reading.

A short debate on traffic controls outside schools.

Lords

Introduction of Baroness Helic.

Questions.

Wales Bill - Third reading.

Consumer Rights Bill - Report stage (Day 2).

After Rochester..

Mark Reckless has won in Rochester & Strood. The numbers, in case you haven't seen them, are:

Mark Reckless (Ukip) 16,867 (42%)
Kelly Tolhurst (Conservatives) 13,947 (35%)
Naushabah Khan (Labour) 6,713 (17%)

Mr Reckless 2920 majority is well within the whips' expectation, and an outbreak of panic is likely to be limited. That our poll-of-polls shows the Conservatives drawing level for the first term highlights that the bigger threat - Labour - is still beatable. For the whips, I'm told that the bigger concern is not further defections but more first-term retirements ala Dan Byles (majority of 54) or Jonathan Evans (majority of 164) who don't fancy their chances thanks to the Ukip surge.

All in all Mark Reckless' victory looks likely to lack the impact of Douglas Carswell's triumph, but sequels often lack the oomph of the original. In any case, it's Labour's own low-budget remake - "Mrs Duffy 2: Tweet in Haste" that is attracting the attention.

Emily Thornberry, Labour's shadow Attorney General, has resigned after tweeting a picture of a house with a white van and three England flags outside with the caption "Image from Rochester". "It insults people like me, the people I know, friends and family" was Labour MP John Mann's response on Today. Ed Miliband was "angrier than he's ever been" say Labour sources. I repeat: it was a picture of a house with the caption "Image from Rochester".

To my eyes, the tweet looks inoffensive when seen in the context of Ms Thornberry's habit of tweeting pictures that are wholly ordinary in a tone of wide-eyed astonishment - "All women, all in black and red!" is a recent example - and I'm inclined to agree with Tim Stanley's verdict that the sacking, rather than the offence, gives off the impression that Labour is a party dominated by middle-class liberals who are cross at being found out. (For the counter argument, Anne Perkins writes in the Guardian, calling it "the most devastating message Labour has managed to deliver in the past four years".)

As one Conservative pointed out last night, this is the consequence of the "gotcha politics" that Labour played over Lord Freud, something that was echoed on the Labour side: "If you make your whole argument against the government all about how they are supposedly out of touch it ramps up the need of your own side to always be in touch to such an extent that something as objectively small as this becomes a resigning issue".

It's worth stopping and thinking about the party that has just doubled its parliamentary representation. It was Mark Reckless who earlier this week suggested that Eastern Europeans could be repatriated, something that Nigel Farage described as "a minor issue". It's Ukip that sits with the far-right KNP in Brussels and Ukip activists who posed with the hard-right Britain First. It's the Ukip leader who told LBC that "you know what the difference is" when asked about Romanians, rather than Germans, moving next door and when asked about the quality level of immigrants talked baout HIV. Mr Reckless is now an MP and Mr Farage is likely to join him in May. Ms Thornberry's frontline career is over. It may be that our sense of offence is somewhat out of joint.

DAVE FIGHTS BACK

The PM will now seek to reclaim the agenda with a speech on immigration that could be made as early as next week. Sam Coates reports in the Times that Downing Street is divided between those favouring "eye-catching but harder to deliver" announcements or "smaller things that are at the more ambitious end of what might be deliverable".

SHOULD 5% APPEAR TOO SMALL, BE THANKFUL I DON'T TAKE IT ALL
HMRC's new powers to raid bank accounts directly will be curbed by the Chancellor, James Chapman reports in the Mail. People will have to have a face-to-face meeting with a tax collector and the right to appeal to a county court.


UKIP HELPS UKIP

In the Sun, Tom Newton Dunn has got hold of an internal party study that suggests that Labour could lose up to ten MPs either as a direct loss to Ukip - Great Grimsbys and Rotherham are both believed to be under threat - or as a result of the Ukip surge knocking out the Labour lead - which happened the local elections in both Birmingham Northfield and Southampton Itchen, both Labour-held.

A GOOD DAY TO BURY BAD NEWS?
George Osborne has withdrawn his legal challenge to the bank bonus cap from the European Court of Justice after a leading legal adviser to the ECJ dimissed the Treasury's appeal, James Titcomb and James Quinn report. "Osborne in Bank Bonuses EU-Turn" is the Mirror's take.


TIP OUT, TTIP

Clive Efford's private member's bill to repeal parts of the 2012 Health and Social Care Bill will come before the House today, with Labour seeking to put the pressure on the Coalition on the controversial law and the forthcoming trade treaty, TTIP, which, Andy Burnham argues, "could give powerul private health interests the ability to break the inherent and essential strength of the NHS". But a group of leading GPs fear that the repeal would be a "backwards step for patient care", subjecting the Health Service to another reorganisation "at a time when it needs to be looking ahead". They've made their feelings known with a letter to the Telegraph.


GRAMMAR

Former Gove SpAd and Number 1 David Cameron fan Dominic Cummings spoke to the IPPR about Whitehall, Westminster and how to fix it - the full recording is here. Among the headlines: Sir Jeremy Heywood has the PM "completely by the balls". Ed Llewellyn and Craig Oliver, are Mr Cameron's "most important advisers" and they are "totally and utterly useless". As for the PM himself, he cannot "manage his way out of a paper bag" and has "never been part of an organisation run well".


MIND YOUR LANGUAGE
Parliament is at risk of becoming "old fashioned" and should consider ending the practice of referring to MPs as "honourable lady" or "honourable gentleman" and instead move to a more "modern system", John Bercow suggests in an interview with the House Magazine. Steven Swinford has the details.

BOJO'S BOSTON TEA PARTY

Boris Johnson is in a stand-off with the American taxman. The Mayor of London, who was born in New York, is refusing to pay US capital gains tax on the profit made through the sale of his house in Islington. That's Islington, London, not Islington, Massachusetts. "I think it's absolutely outrageous," Mr Johnson spluttered, "Why should I? I think, you know, I'm not a - I, you know, I haven't lived in the United States for, you know, well, since I was five years old." Holly Watt has the story.

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?


21.11.14

Conservatives 33% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 15% Green 5% (Ashcroft-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 14.11.2014-21.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

YouGov: Conservatives 34%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 14% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@TomChivers: I'd love it if just once, a losing by-election candidate said "No you're quite right Justin out on the doorstep literally everyone hates us"

Tinker,tailor, soldier, ukipper..

Grant Shapps and Lord Feldman were up in Rochester before first light for the party's dawn raid in Rochester & Strood. Back in Westminster, the Conservatives are bracing themselves for defeat to Ukip and Mark Reckless, but the bigger question today is: are there more to come? 

Mr Reckless says that two Tory MPs are waiting for the results before deciding to make the leap or not. As one senior Liberal MP mused: "It's like the SDP. They'll be asking themselves: can I pay the mortgage? Can I keep my seat?"

As James Kirkup points out, if Ukip can win in Rochester they will fancy their chances almost anywhere, but a by-election - as the SDP themselves learnt - is very different from a general. It may well be that those wavering defectors will wait and see what happens to Mr Reckless in May rather than switching now. On the Ukip side, there is a feeling that any would-be defectors aren't quite ready to be brought from the oven - yet, although if today brings a bigger margin of victory than the expected 10 to 15 points, who knows? 

The hope in CCHQ and Downing Street is that today proves, if not the hoped-for firewall against Ukip then at the least, a line in the sand, at least once the PM's big speech on immigration is out of the way. 

The challenge of winning back Ukippers without losing the country is laid bare by Sam Coates' analysis in the Times. Supporters of Nigel Farage's party are far angrier about the state of modern Britain than everyone else, with 68% wanting to turn the clock back by 30 years - just 38% of all voters agree. It may be that the PM can win even if Ukip remain a power in the land. A Survation poll for the trade union Unite shows Labour failing to make the breakthrough in their seventh target seat, Stockton South (the numbers are Conservatives 39%, Labour 37% Ukip 18%, Liberal Democrats 3%). It's a reminder that a second term for David Cameron remains within reach, even if Ukip's "very durable bubble" in Patrick Wintour's phrase remains unpopped. 

 

THINK EU BETTER LEAVE RIGHT NOW

"EU must change or we quit" is our splash. An opt-out from ever-closer union is a must in order to support staying in the EU as far as Oliver Letwin is concerned, as exit would be better than being "absorbed into a United States of Europe". Mr Letwin, whose preference is that Britain remain within the "outer rim" of the EU, made the remarks at University College London - Ned Simons at the Huffington Post has a full account of Mr Letwin's remarks. David Lidington, the Europe minister, has warned that Britain will never be free from "the EU's influence or rules", even if the UK does vote to leave. 

HE LIVED HIS LIFE, LIKE A LION IN THE WIND

The PM's hopes of a cap or a temporary pause in European migration to the UK have taken a further blow, Lucy Fisher and Michael Savage report in the Times. A delegation of German MPs has warned that such changes are non-negotiable. Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the Bundestag's European affairs committee, says that Germany is "not in favour of all brakes, moratoria or anything else". Detlef Seif, another MP from Angel Merkel's ruling coalition, helpfully describes David Cameron as "like a butterfly in the wind" looking for "the most support in my party and the most support in Great Britain". But the UK "does not need a butterfly, it needs a lion in the wind," Herr Seif says.  

"THERE ARE NO NINJAS, THERE IS NO DOOR"

Former Gove SpAd and Number 1 David Cameron fan Dominic Cummings spoke to the IPPR about Whitehall, Westminster and how to fix it - the full recording is here. Among the headlines: Sir Jeremy Heywood has the PM "completely by the balls". Ed Llewellyn and Craig Oliver, are Mr Cameron's "most important advisers" and they are "totally and utterly useless". As for the PM himself, he cannot "manage his way out of a paper bag" and has "never been part of an organisation run well". 

THE LONG HELLO

Nicola Sturgeon's ascent to the top of the SNP comes to a conclusion today as she is sworn in at the Court of Session and takes questions from the SNP as First Minister. In the battle to replace her, Neil Findlay is believed to be gaining on Jim Murphy in the race to become Scottish Labour leader. It's causing consternation among some members of Mr Miliband's circle according to James Cusick in the Indy. One adviser close to Mr Miliband tells James "Findlay represents pain and isn't the solution".  

A CHILLY RECEPTION
George Osborne has gone on the offensive against his Liberal Democrat deputy, Danny Alexander, after Mr Alexander claimed that the Chancellor kept the fridge locked. The key is in fact kept on the top of the fridge."If I had been Chief Secretary and after all this time I hadn't found the key to the fridge, I wouldn't tell people," Mr Osborne chuckled. 

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 15% Green 5%  (Ashcroft-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 13.11.2014-20.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

YouGov: Conservatives 34%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 14% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@georgeeaton: Politician: "If you go to bed with ...". Voter: "I'm sleeping on the couch". #PMQs

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

James Kirkup - Mockingjay, Rochester and why Mark Reckless is Katniss Everdeen
Peter Oborne - No sign yet of a solution to the shambles within the Tory party

From elsewhere

Peter Kellner - How to beat Ukip? Other parties haven't a clue (Times)
George Eaton - As another hung parliament looms, the Tories and Labour are contemplating minority rule (New Statesman)
AGENDA
0930 EDINBURGH: New First Minister sworn in. Nicola Sturgeon will be sworn into the role by the Court of Session.
1030 LONDON: David Cameron at Liaison Committee. The meeting focuses on the Governance of the UK in the light of the Scottish Referendum.
1230 EDINBURGH: First Minister's Questions. Nicola Sturgeon will answer questions from MSPs at Holyrood for the first time as First Minister.
1900 LONDON: Candle-lit vigil by Unite union for NHS.
2200 ROCHESTER: Close of poll in Rochester and Strood. Result expected around three-thirty Friday morning.
TODAY IN PARLIAMENT
Commons
Business, Innovation and Skills Questions.
A statement on the future business of the House.
Two backbench business debates: i) Money creation and society ii) Devolution and the Union.
A short debate on health services in Halifax.
Westminster Hall
Two backbench business debates:
i) The first report from the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: Review of Working Group I Contribution.
ii) The ninth report from the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee, Carbon Capture and Storage.
Lords
Questions.
A debate on the Azure Card.

A debate on the impact of the UN's Convention on the Rights of the Child on children's and young people's online and digital interactions. 

Vote Ed, get Nigel..

Labour entered the immigration arms race with a quick one-two from Yvette Cooper and Rachel Reeves. 1,000 new border guards to keep the illegal immigrants out, promised Ms Cooper, and a two year wait to claim benefits for the rest, Ms Reeves pledged on the Mail's website.

The papers aren't impressed. "Spectacularly disingenuous" is our leader's verdict. The Times is left cold by Ms Cooper's focus on the need for "progressive reforms" to prevent migrants being employed on below the minimum wage and on high rents. "Not many of those who are concerned about the level of immigration are secretly worrying that migrants are not being paid well enough," is their verdict. "This," the Mail thunders, "was the day Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper earned herself a volume of her own in the annals of jaw-dropping political opportunism and hypocrisy".

It hasn't won Labour many friends among what Ms Cooper calls as the "liberal commentators" either. "Self-defeating cynicism" is David Aaronovitch's line. "Miliband is turning into a charmless, voteless Blair" sighs Nick Cohen. "I wonder how many UK lefties and liberals are looking again at the Greens tonight, after Labour's day of dog-whistling," Mehdi Hasan asks.  Whatever happened to pledging not to "out-Ukip Ukip", Dan Hodges wonders in his column. 

It's not as bad as all that, is Andy Grice's take in the i: Ed Miliband has "positioned his party in the middle of the spectrum, while the Tories struggle to be the toughest of them all". It's a "third way", he suggests. But the problem with Labour's third way is it doesn't go anywhere. 

As our leader points out, the "inevitable question is: why did Labour not do any of this while in power?" Not only is Mr Miliband the leader of the party that was in office when immigration was its height but he was a key player in the backroom for most of it. In any case, "I would have stopped the boats at Calais but I was too busy teaching politics at Harvard" is not exactly the stuff Prime Ministers are made of.  Whatever Labour might want to pretend today, they're the party of immigration. They can lose friends pretending otherwise but they certainly won't get any new ones. 

ALL'S WELL THAT ENDS ALE

The PM suffered his first legislative defeat in the Commons over a backbench amendment to the Small Business and Enterprise and Employment Bill in what has been described as a "historic victory" for pub landlords. The amendment could set landlords free from the "beer tie", which limits landlords on on the purchase of drinks from competitors and limits freedom-of-rent agreements, and, according to the Campaign for Real Ale, will help keep pubs open and affordable. (Elizabeth Anderson has the details) 

TAKING THE MICHAEL

The defeat has put the spotlight on Michael Gove's grip as Chief Whip, as several Conservative ministers missed the vote. But the bulk of the rebels were drawn from the Liberal Democrat side, in a victory for Greg Mulholland, the Liberal MP and head of the Save the Pub campaign, and Toby Perkins, Labour's shadow small business minister, who has been quietly working with the rebels for some time. As Chris Hope reports, it's not just Mr Gove with uncomfortable questions to answer. A prolonged spell on the sofa could beckon for Duncan Hames, who rebelled against the motion. The minister in charge of the legislation, Jo Swinson, is married to Mr Hames. 

BE OFF WITH EU

Mark Reckless has suggested that Eastern Europeans working in Britain could be forced to return home in the event that Britain votes to leave the European Union, Laura Pitel and Ellie Amodio report in the Times, but "people who have been here a long time and integrated in that way I think we'd want to look sympathetically at". Naushabah Khan, the Labour candidate, whose father is a first-generation migrant, asked just how far back such a process might go. It's "the first time Ukip have been forced on the defensive" in the campaign, the BBC's Norman Smith says. Elsewhere, Ms Khan saysthat Labour must tell "a story about hope" in order to defeat Ukip across the country.

OUTKLASSED

After being struck dumb by Myleene Klass, formerly of the pop band Hear'Say, when she said that in London a £2m house was "like a garage", before pointing at a glass of water and suggesting that "you might as well tax that", Ed Miliband has hit back on Twitter, Georgia Graham reports, saying that the tax is "Pure and Simple", in a dig at Ms Klass' one-hit wonder of the same name. "Now Red Ed makes an even BIGGER twit of himself in his Klass war with Myleene" is the Mail's take, while the Guardian has the somewhat more sympathetic "Miliband bruised in Klass war over tax".  "A man wanting to be Prime Minister shouldn't be taken ab apart by a pop star in a TV debate about politics," is the Sun's take in their leader.

BETTER DAYS LIE AHEAD?

Alex Salmond stepped down as First Minister yesterday, saying that"better days lie ahead" for Scotland and suggesting that the four year break he took from 2000 to 2004 allowed him to come back and win power at Holyrood in 2011 and 2014, which must come as a somewhat unwelcome message to Nicola Sturgeon, his successor. I've taken a look at what the SNP's surge and the Liberal collapse - their rating in today's Opinium is their lowest of the parliament with any pollster - might do on a seat-by-seat basis to Scottish Labour.  

THE KEY WILL KEEP THE LOCK

Another Coalition row. Danny Alexander tells the Parliamentary Press Gallery's monthly lunch that George Osborne padlocks his fridge to prevent him stealing the milk, but Treasury aides have hit back. They say key is kept on top of the fridge and that Mr Alexander can open the lock should he so desire. Chris Hope has the story. 

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 7% Ukip 15% Green 7%  (Ashcroft-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 12.11.2014-19.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

Opinium: Conservatives 34% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 5% Ukip 18% Green 5%

YouGov: Conservatives 32%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@johnpmcdermott: Where is the end pt for EU migrants and benefits? What else can we restrict: jam, hats, mammalian pets, Cafe Nero loyalty card ...

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

James Kirkup - Conservative optimism has given way to doom and gloom
Mary Riddell - Our housing crisis will dominate the political agenda for decades

From elsewhere

Daniel Finkelstein - They didn't listen to him then. They must now(Times)
Rafael Behr - A lesson for Labour from the people of Rochester(Guardian)
AGENDA

1200 LONDON: Prime Ministers Questions.

Betting the house..

The Conservatives have gone from throwing the kitchen sink to the family home at Mark Reckless in Rochester & Strood. A vote for Ukip could knock thousands of pounds off house prices, Tory strategists have said. (Roving reporter Matt Holehouse has the story from Rochester.) "The danger is if you vote Ukip, the value of your house will go down," says Charles Walker, the MP for Broxbourne. It's "absurd" reply Ukip spinners.

Who's right? It's well known that the BNP's local election victory in Barking & Dagenham saw property prices in that borough stagnate while values in the neighbouring areas surged. Polls consistently show that Nigel Farage is hugely popular with his own supporters but strongly disliked by most of his opponents - whether that's the latest Ashcroft or the ComRes survey that finds that Mr Farage is Sean Bean to his friends and Mr Bean to his enemies - - so it seems reasonable to expect there is a degree of social stigma attached to living in a Ukip seat. 

But that the attack has come so late in the campaign - "you can't fatten the pig on market day" as Lynton Crosby says - reveals the frustration at the heart of the Tory effort. The pledge of an In-Out referendum was meant to stop Ukip. It didn't. Mr Farage's revolt was meant to peak in the European elections and ebb away after Newark. It hasn't. Rochester & Strood was meant to be a firebreak. It won't be. 

It may be that, at the last hurdle, the question of who governs - David Cameron or Ed Miliband - brings Ukip voters back to the fold. But the Conservative nightmare scenario outlined in Janan Ganesh's column today - "a tectonic rupture and the emergence of a durable political movement" - cannot be ruled out.

BRINGING A BADLY-COSTED KNIFE TO A GUN FIGHT

Yvette Cooper will today accuse the Conservatives and Ukip being engaged in an "arms race of rhetoric" on immigration before pledging to introduce 1,000 extra border staff. (The irony appears to have escaped her.)  But Labour's plans to increase the number of border and immigration workers to 8,000 by imposing a visa waiver charge on tourists are already under fire, with Home Office sources telling Holly Watt that the Opposition's sums are "catastrophically wrong".  Charging for the electronic visa waiver scheme would fund just 59 new members of staff, analysis shows. "This announcement has unravelled completely," Theresa May says. 

A WEE PROBLEM 

A Survation poll for the Daily Record shows that Labour still has a mountain to climb in Scotland. The SNP are on 46% while Labour trails on 24% (the two Coalition parties are on 17% and 6% respectively). On a a uniform swing the SNP would take 52 seats, leaving Labour with just five MPs. It's a slight recovery from the horror polls immediately after Johann Lamont's acrimonious resignation, however. Even pessimistic Labour sources believe that the SNP's surge is not consistent throughout the country, meaning that Glasgow's MPs should be far more worried than Edinburgh's.  

WHITEHALL 2.0

David Cameron is "getting his excuses in early" with his warnings over red lights and slowdowns, Ed Miliband said in the House yesterday. In his sketch, Michael Deacon is confused by the PM's messaging - "Most of our people have never had it so good. Or bad." - while Jeremy Warner explains what's going wrong in the global economy here. Elsewhere, the Institute for Government's annual Whitehall Monitor is out today. Whitehall must raise its skills and the Civil Service must change how it operates in order to cope with the coming cuts in the next parliament. 

WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN

Almost a million crimes are disappearing from official figures every year as chief constables massage the figures to meet their targets, according to the police inspectorate, David Barrett reports. There is a "material risk of the victim and the community not receiving justice," Tom Winsor, the Chief Inspector says.

CAREFUL, DARLING

Alistair Darling issues a warning to pro-Europeans in the Guardian today. There is a "real risk the fight will be lost before it begins", Mr Darling says. The 2017 referendum will be held to the backdrop of continuing austerity and a possible recession as the Eurozone slips back into crisis. "Hope may well be in short supply," the former Chancellor warns. The case for staying within the EU needs to be made "with vigour", Mr Darling says.  "In Scotland it took a long time for the quiet majority to feel confident enough to speak out. It was almost left too late." 

FROM GRAD TO WORSE

The high level of monthly repayments caused by the hike in tuition fees to £9,000 means that thousands of middle-class professionals will be unable to secure mortgages while three-quarters of students will never pay off the debt at all, Graeme Paton reports. "Tuition fees: three quarters of students won't pay off debt" is the Indy's splash. "Student fees time bomb" is the i's take.

SEATS FOR THE BOYS

Ed Miliband has "seized control" of the selection process for Labour MPs, Sam Coates reports in the Times. The party's National Executive Committee has agreed that from today a special selection panel will decide what happens in plum seats. The panel decides which seats must field all-women shortlists in some seats and determines the selection of shortlists in others. The expectation among Labour insiders, I'm told, is that the panel will have fewer all-women selections than has been the case so far in the parliament, as many of Mr Miliband's allies with eyes on a seat are men.  

CLICK THIS LINK TO GET NOTHING DONE ALL DAY

Westminster ground to a halt yesterday after YouGov unveiled a new toy/handy polling gadget. The YouGov profiler allows you to find out what the shopping habits of David Cameron's fans are, or the favoured food of the supporters of Ed Miliband. Raziye Akkoc picks through some of her favourite examples here.

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 15% Green 6%  (Ashcroft-ICM-IpsosMori-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 11.11.2014-18.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

Ashcroft: Conservatives 29% Labour 30% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 16% Green 7%

Populus: Conservatives 35% Labour 36% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 11% Green 5%

YouGov: Conservatives 33%, Labour 32%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 15% Green 8%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@JoeTwyman: Q: What is @YouGov? (asks Russell Brand in latest video) A: We're the people you commissioned to run a survey for your book. #yourewelcome

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Jeremy Warner - Can Britain survive another European crash?
Philip Johnston - Ukip's rise reflects a growing willigness to complain

From elsewhere

Rachel Sylvester - Ministers take side in Tory culture clash (Times)
Janan Ganesh - Tories should call off the search for an anti-Ukip strategy (FT)

AGENDA

0930 LONDON: Inflation figures for October are published by the Office for National Statistics.
1045 LONDON: Yvette Cooper, shadow home secretary, will deliver a speech on immigration.
1100 HARROGATE: Home Secretary speech to the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners.
1420 EDINBURGH: First Minister Alex Salmond will make a resignation statement to the Scottish Parliament.
1445 LONDON: Immigration minister and transport chiefs before home affairs select committee.
1630 LONDON: Ofcom chief executive at Lords committee.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons

Deputy Prime Minister's Questions.
Attorney General Questions.
A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Apprenticeships (Child Benefit and Tax Credit Entitlement) (Research).
Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill - Report stage (Day 1).
A short debate on future of Fenton Town Hall Building, Stoke-on-Trent.
Westminster Hall
0930: Physical inactivity and public health.
1100: Service history of Corporal Stewart McLaughlin.
1430: Role of Germany and the UK in the EU.
1600: Investment in the armed forces.
1630: Housing market in London.
Lords
Questions.
Social Action, Responsibility and Heroism Bill - Committee of the whole House.

Orders and Regulations relating to the Marriage of Same Sex Couples (Conversion of Civil Partnership) Regulations 2014; Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013 (Consequential and Contrary Provisions and Scotland) and Marriage and Civil Partnership (Scotland) Act 2014 (Consequential Provisions) Order 2014; Consular Marriages and Marriages under Foreign Law (No. 2) Order 2014.

A warning light that never goes out..

David Cameron takes to the pages of the Guardian this morning with a dire warning. "Red warning lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy," the PM warns. A possible third recession in the Eurozone, slow down in the emerging market economies that have driven global growth over the past few years, conflict in the Middle East, Russia's incursion into Ukraine and the Ebola epidemic are all "adding a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty". 

The hope in 2010 was that by now, Britain would be back in the black and that "the proceeds of growth"  could be widely shared. The Autumn Statement on the 3rd December would, in an ideal world, be dominated by tax cuts and sunlit uplands. 

The reality is rather different. The recovery has seen a boom in the number of low-income jobs, leaving the Treasury facing an ever-tighter pinch on revenues and an ever-larger in-work welfare bill. Labour claims today that the Chancellor will have to fork out £25 billion more than planned from the social security budget.

All in all, the mission of getting Britain back into the black by 2015 has suffered something of a setback. If there is to be a big outlay in December it will likely be to head off a winter crisis in the NHS. "Softening up" was the line on the Today programme: the PM is out today in order to lay the ground for a grim message from George Osborne. It also gets the national conversation back onto the economy, the Government's best territory and the PM's best hope of stopping Labour next May. But there's a bigger point here: most people expect a rather better time after the election than they had before it. The reality is that ain't going to happen. That's better news for Nigel Farage and his party than whatever happens in Rochester on Thursday.

YOU'LL WIN NOTHING WITH KIPS

Ukip's formerly shambolic campaign operation has transformed itself from "Dad's Army" to a "ruthlessly organised insurgency", according to Matt Goodwin, who probably knows more about Ukip than anyone. Two new recruits - tireless doorknocker Douglas Carswell and Chris Bruni-Lowe, co-founder of the People's Pledge, a pro-referendum campaign - are behind the transformation from the rudderless outfit that went down to Newark to a machine that, Ukip sources predict, could win in Rochester & Strood by as much as 15 points. Reporting from the constituency, Tom Rowley finds that the mood in the constituency is "not of revolt but general disgruntlement".

PHFITS AND STARTS

Bonuses tied to corporate takeovers could be banned under a Labour government, Chuka Umunna has suggested in an interview with the Times, as it incentivises advisors to complete deals "even if it might not be in a company's best interests", Mr Umunna argues. There needs to be "more grit in the machine" making takeovers more difficult to complete as "at the moment there is a takeover bus that ionce it has started it is very hard to stop". Pfizer's takeover bus is likely to remain in the garage however - the American giant will be able to make take over plucky British-Swedish minnow AstraZeneca on the 26th of November, but the company has announced a $11 billion share buyback programme and is believed to be targeting less politically fraught deals. 

TARTAN...TROTS?

A new Survation poll finds that the Scots are still in favour of the Union - just. It's 53% No and 47% for Yes once you strip out the undecideds. But the Scottish electorate's love affair with the SNP shows little sign of dying down. Nicola Sturgeon, who took office as leader of the SNP and First Minister, has laid out further conditionsfor supporting a Labour government in office next year: an abandonment of the deficit reduction and the end of Britain's nuclear deterrent. Labour sources believe that Ms Sturgeon's game is to make impossible demands of Labour in order to walk away from Coalition negotiations. "It's in her interest to have a Tory government in Westminster and a left-wing government in Holyrood," they explain. 

BLACK THURSDAY?

Britain will pledge £600 million to a UN "green bank" intended to help developing countries prepare for the impact of climate change. Peter Bone tells the Sun's Steve Hawkes it will boost Ukip in Thursday's vote - "Tories See Red At Cam's Green Gift" is their headline. It all adds up to a miserable few days in the House for the PM, with Labour seeking to re-open the European Arrest Warrant argument on Wednesday and a Conservative revolt over the Barnett formula on the Thursday. 

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE

Rowena Mason interviews Sadiq Khan - the head of Labour's anti-Green unit - as the Shadow Justice Secretary battles to prevent a Green surge that could put pay to Ed Miliband's hopes next May. It's all about broadcasting that Ed Miliband's outfit isn't the same as Tony Blair's, Mr Khan believes. But it's his comments about the next election - "squeaky bum time", "neck and neck"- that are widely reported. The phrase originates in the 2002-3 season, when an Arsenal team that had lead for long periods faltered at the last to a resurgent Manchester United. 

DIDN'T HE ALREADY DO THAT IN LOVE ACTUALLY?

Polling company ComRes turned casting consultancy for the Indy on Sunday and the Mirror this weekend. Rowan Atkinson is the runaway favourite to play both Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage among voters (27% and 21% respectively), while Hugh Grant is the preferred choice for the PM (18%) and his deputy (17%). Ukip supporters have a rather different view of their man than the public at large: they think that Sean Bean would be a better fit for that man Mr Farage.  

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

HOW HAVE THE POLLS MOVED IN THE LAST MONTH?

Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrats 8% Ukip 15% Green 6%  (Ashcroft-ICM-IpsosMori-Opinium-Populus-YouGov, 07.11.2014-14.11.2014)

LATEST POLLS:

ComRes: Conservatives 30% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 19% Green 3%

Populus: Conservatives 33% Labour 35% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 13% Green 3%

YouGov: Conservatives 31%, Labour 33%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Ukip 18% Green 5%

TOO MANY TWEETS...

@jimw1: Re: Rochester by-election. As radical anti-Westminster ideas go not sure how far along the scale of daring voting for your sitting MP stands

COMMENT

From the Telegraph

Con Coughlin - We need to focus on fighting Isil, rather than ourselves
Matthew Goodwin - Ukip's days of amateur campaigning are over

From elsewhere

Ian Birrell - Ukip feasts on anti-politics mood (i)
Jamie Reed - Why Vote Ukip: a study in paranoia (Progress)

AGENDA

1030 LONDON: Libel actions involving former Government chief whip Andrew Mitchell. Mr Mitchell is suing News Group Newspapers over a September 2012 article in The Sun about the "Plebgate" incident which concerned a verbal exchange at the gate in Downing Street between the MP and PC Toby Rowland. Mr Mitchell is himself being sued by PC Rowland in respect of statements he made from December 2012 onwards.
1345 LONDON: General Synod.
2235: Ed Miliband and the Telegraph's Allison Pearson among the guests on ITV's The Agenda.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons
Home Office Questions.
Childcare Payments Bill - report stage and third reading.
A short debate on mental health services and the homicide investigation report on the death of Christina Edkins.
Lords
Questions.

Modern Slavery Bill - Second reading.