Tuesday, 20 May 2014
Is Ukip slipping..
BREAKING: David Cameron has just finished speaking on the Today programme. There are unlikely to be many headlines so the PM will consider it job done. His pledge to do more on extradition times will play well with the faithful. His robust defence of Help to Buy - "for people who can make mortgage payments but not afford a deposit" - went well. He cast it as the heir to Margaret Thatcher's right to buy. The DPM had thoughtfully left a bear trap with his remarks about Eurosceptics as patriots, but that went off without anything that will set the cat amongst the pigeons. Then came the question of whether or not he should resign in the event of a Yes vote. Dave ruled it out - "the vote's about one thing" he said, and he described resisting or delaying a referendum as potentially "disastrous" for the United Kingdom.
Good morning. The pounding of Ukip continues, and Tories will say that it is having an effect. YouGov in the Sun has the party down to second place behind Labour - the numbers are C21, L28, LD10, Ukip24, Green12. That said, the same poll gives Ukip 11pc at Westminster, which is uncomfortable for the Tories. But what CCHQ will want to know is whether there is a chance Ukip might not come first when results are announced on Sunday night, which would be a triumph of expectation management (for the Tories) and a disaster for Nigel Farage, who can't rely on just beating the Conservatives - he has to top the poll. CCHQ will also study the numbers for evidence that the sustained attack on Ukip is having an effect. We should point out that an Opinium poll in the Mail puts Ukip first - C20 L29 LD5 Ukip31 Green5.
It would be surprising if the pounding wasn't having an effect. Look across the papers today: Roger Helmer "attacking" a disabled man in Newark is there, complete with pictures in the Mail and Times; David Lammy leading various Labour luminaries in accusing Ukip of racism gets coverage; the Sun reproduces its Two Face Farage image, and carries a story accusing Ukip of "Exploiting our heroes" by using images of war graves on its leaflets (its leader reveals Mr Farage "is no longer talking to us - we're not sure why". Lemme guess...). The FT meanwhile reports on a Scotsman poll that suggests the Yes vote would benefit if England votes for Ukip. Best line though is from David Cameron himself, who has told the Mail that Ukip's candidates and donors hold "appalling" views and are "frankly unpleasant".
In my column I've picked up on Mr Cameron's point about the "politics of anger". Defying the collective pessimism that Mr Farage trades on is the biggest challenge politicians face. Voter anger is blinding them to what's working, and the inescapable fact that the United Kingdom remains a remarkable success. Ukip supporters are furious at the way Mr Farage is being targeted. The party's activists complain they are being unfairly traduced. What we can't know yet is whether undecided voters who see the unflattering reports of Ukip's views and personalities will conclude that the party is not for them, or, encouraged by a general disillusionment with politics, will start to think that Ukip are the underdogs, in need of support.
It would be surprising if the pounding wasn't having an effect. Look across the papers today: Roger Helmer "attacking" a disabled man in Newark is there, complete with pictures in the Mail and Times; David Lammy leading various Labour luminaries in accusing Ukip of racism gets coverage; the Sun reproduces its Two Face Farage image, and carries a story accusing Ukip of "Exploiting our heroes" by using images of war graves on its leaflets (its leader reveals Mr Farage "is no longer talking to us - we're not sure why". Lemme guess...). The FT meanwhile reports on a Scotsman poll that suggests the Yes vote would benefit if England votes for Ukip. Best line though is from David Cameron himself, who has told the Mail that Ukip's candidates and donors hold "appalling" views and are "frankly unpleasant".
In my column I've picked up on Mr Cameron's point about the "politics of anger". Defying the collective pessimism that Mr Farage trades on is the biggest challenge politicians face. Voter anger is blinding them to what's working, and the inescapable fact that the United Kingdom remains a remarkable success. Ukip supporters are furious at the way Mr Farage is being targeted. The party's activists complain they are being unfairly traduced. What we can't know yet is whether undecided voters who see the unflattering reports of Ukip's views and personalities will conclude that the party is not for them, or, encouraged by a general disillusionment with politics, will start to think that Ukip are the underdogs, in need of support.
MINIMUM WAGE, MAXIMUM PAIN
Page 4 of the FT has that rare thing; a second day story for a Labour policy announcement. But what's this? "Business unhappy with Miliband's wage pledge"is the headline. The British Chambers of Commerce, IOD director-general Simon Walker, the Federation of Small Businesses, the EEF Manufacturers Association and the CBI's Katja Hall have all voiced their opposition to the move. Vince Cable has a different take:"Labour is advocating what we're already doing.". The Mail's leader points out that under Ed Miliband, the minimum wage would actually be lower than it is at present. Our leader describes it as a classic of the Miliband playbook: identify a problem, devise a populist solution, and hand someone else the bill. "But," we add, "if anything, his plans have grown less convincing.". The Labour leader may shrug off this comment from the right wing press as par for the course, but there's more woe in the Indy. A ComRes poll finds that 40% of voters say that Mr Miliband makes them less likely to vote Labour; more worrying than the 28% of Labour voters who agree are the two out of five Lib Dem switchers who say they are supporting Labour in spite of its leader. The 35% strategy may need some work.
STOIC LIB DEMS PREPARE FOR THE WORST
Not all Liberal Democrats yearn for a second coalition. Tim Farron has put himself on a collision course with Nick Clegg, who has previously rejected calls for the Liberals to seek a confidence and supply arrangement, by suggesting that the DPM should keep his options open. Ruling out minority government, Mr Farron says, is like "lying on the floor with jam and butter on ourselves, saying 'butter me up!'".
IRRECONCILABLES...RECONCILED
The "wagons are beginning to circle", one senior figure tells the Guardian's Nicholas Watt. The good news is, they're circling protectively. As I blogged last week, even the previously implacable anti-Cameroons are coming on side as the good economic news, the promise of an In/Out referendum, and the narrowing polls all contribute to a renewed good feeling in the Tory camp. It's not all clear skies: many of the troublemakers say they are simply keeping their powder dry until 2017.
A CURE FOR CAMERON?
AstraZeneca's rejection of the Pfizer bid has come at a heavy price - close to £7bn and a number of shareholders have their noses bent out of shape - but it's good news for Downing Street. The mooted takeover would have taken at least a year to complete and any negative consequences would have been laid squarely at Dave's door. The collapse of Pfizer's proposal has spiked Chuka Umunna's guns - and it might give Labour cause to consider that mostly, shareholders have a pretty good idea of what's best for their businesss.
GREEN HEAVEN
The Greens are on the march in Europe. It's because of fracking, says their leader, Natalie Bennett, in today's FT. Maybe, maybe not: but if the Greens do finish above the Liberals, the "green cr*p" could make its way back onto the Coalition's agenda.
PARTY LIKE IT'S 2007
A Scot is back in Number 10. Dave has hired a Scottish nanny after the departure of his long-serving Nepalese nanny, Gita Lima, on maternity leave. The hope is that it will show how important the Union is to the PM - but the image of a Scot serving Mr Cameron may not have the resonance Downing Street hopes.
Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:
Con 33%, Lab 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%
TWEETS & TWITS
Out on the doorstep, Karl McCartney is already looking forward to the end of the day:
@KarlMcCartney: Post deliveries good to see many candidates in Sth of City out canvassing before meeting up with @RupertMatthews for BBQ and catch-up+drink!
COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Benedict Brogan - Voters are mad as hell, when perhaps they should give thanks
Allan Massie - Do Londoners know the rest of the country exists?
Telegraph View - Ed Miliband's latest plan to take Britain backwards
David Owen - How we can save Syria's chlorine victims
Best of the Rest
Rachel Sylvester - Ed is under pressure from left and right
AGENDA
0930 LONDON: ONS announces inflation figures for April.0930 LONDON: Exams regulator Ofqual to publish statistics on entries for this year's GCSEs and iGCSESs.
Monday, 19 May 2014
Farage's taste of things to come..
BREAKING: Ed Miliband has just finished speaking. He has described Britain as one of the worst performers as far as low pay was concerned. He reiterated his comments that Nigel Farage had made 'a racial slur' but was not 'a racist'. Nick Robinson has suggested that Ed Miliband's anti-business lines are, in part, designed to spike Mr Farage's guns. We'll see how effective it is on Thursday.
Good morning. Ukip is taking a pounding, but will it make a difference? The polls give the party first place on Thursday in the Euros, but anyone reading across the papers would wonder how that can be. The main parties must wish there was a bit more time to go before polling day, as they reckon the tide has further to turn. But the postal votes have gone out, and the expectation is that the race crisis enveloping Ukip has come too late to dent its chances. And as before they may be underestimating the extent of the voter rage that gives Ukip its energy.
The "you know the difference" about Romanians row still reverberates. Mr Farage has taken out a full page advert in the Telegraph as an open letter to "Dear UK Citizen", in which he defends his comments against "a predictable storm of protest and accusations of racism". He says "it is not racist to want to stop organised criminal gangs undermining our way of life - it is common sense". Presumably the ad was submitted before he made his more conciliatory remarks about being tired and getting it wrong. Wrong or common sense? Ukip may have to unpick that one today. Mr Farage says he regrets his words, and will hold a "carnival" for black and ethnic minority voters tomorrow. Why does that sounds potentially disastrous? The Sun, which attacked Ukip as racist in a leader on Saturday, has returned to the fray with a belter from Trevor Kavanagh alongside a mock-up of Nigel Farage as a two-faced Jekyll and Hyde figure. "Is Ukip leader voice of nation…or bigoted menace - snake oil salesman offends & seduces". Trevoir voices his doubts about Mr Farage who "runs the party as his personal fiefdom". The tabloid has made a strategic decision to clobber Ukip, which in itself is interesting. The Mail rehearses Alan Sked's charge that Mr Farage once referred to "n*****" voters, while Patrick Wintour in the Guardian looks at the difficulties Ed Miliband is having with Ukip in the north, which he attributes to Labour's internal divisions over immigration. In the Telegraph, Boris issues a rallying cry against Ukip - "say no to no say".
On Saturday I interviewed Eric Pickles who, like other Tories, refused to describe Ukip as racist. When we spoke Mr Farage had not yet appeared on LBC, though I suspect that the Communities Secretary wouldn't have changed his mind, given that he went on to describe Ukip as "xenophobic", "uber nationalist" and its statements on immigration "shameful". The Tories are usually fearful of insulting Ukip voters, and prefer to let others do the pounding for them. The vigour with which the media has been pursuing Ukip, and exposing the sometimes odious views of some of its candidates, is impressive, but it will encourage the party's view that it is the victim of a politico-media establishment conspiracy. Nothing has emerged so far to contradict the expectation that Ukip will come first in the euros. But the past 48 hours have shown what the longer term outlook might be for Ukip as it struggles, with limited resources and an inexperienced machine, to cope with the sustained scrutiny that comes in the big leagues.
PFINISHED BUSINESS?
The Pfizer/AstraZeneca saga looks to be nearing its conclusion. Pfizer have come in with what they say is their final bid. It values AstraZeneca at around £55 a share (1.845 shares in the new Pfizer-AZ entity plus £15.98 in cash). The offer is a 45pc premium on AstraZeneca's share price on the last day of trading before the takeover (Denise Roland has the details). The AZ board has rejected the proposal, which leaves the the bid in the hands of the shareholders. Chuka Umunna has thrown a spanner in the works, saying that an incoming Labour government would move to block the takeover.
MINIMUM WAGE, MAXIMUM GAIN?
"Labour: we will link minimum pay to earnings" is the Guardian's frontpage."Miliband targets minimum wage for maximum gain" says the Indy's. Unfortunately "Schoolkids' Lives At Risk For £3k" is the Mirror splash, but Labour spinners will be happy this morning with the response to Ed Miliband's wheeze to link the national minimum wage to average earnings. Yes, business will be unhappy - the CBI's Katja Hall sounded the alarm on the Today programme this morning - but the Labour leader long ago waved goodbye to any chance of netting meaningful support from the business community. Labour need these crowd-pleasing announcements to stick to get their base fired up for Thursday. The question is whether they can follow through tomorrow; remember last week's announcement on GP appointments? Precisely.
HELP TO...BYE?
Mark Carney's appearance on Sky News' Murnaghan is everywhere ("Bank's fear as house prices hit record high" is our splash), and his comments on Help to Buy have caught the imagination of the subs. "Help to Buy is threat to recovery, Bank warns" is the Times frontpage. Mr Carney's public airing of concerns that Help to Buy is causing a return to the bad old days of sub-prime will increase speculation that the Governor will make a formal request that the policy be changed in September. Remember, though, that 77% of Help-to-Buy completions occur outside of London and the South East, and it's the overheating in the capital and its environs that really have economists worried. Capping the scheme in London would help at the margins, but it's an increase in supply that's needed. What's really happening here - in the words of the Times leader - is Mr Carney passing the buck from Threadneedle Street to Downing Street.
THE WAY OF ALL YES
Support for Scottish independence has slumped to 34%, its lowest share of the vote since September 2013. The same ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday has No at 46%. Excluding the Don't Knows, the lead is 58% to 42%, with the prospect of reinforcements for the No campaign after the end of the local and European elections on Thursday. Dave's visit to Scotland and the promise of more powers for Scotland appears to have put the wind up the separatists, with Nicola Sturgeon on the Marr show attempting to cast doubt on the pledge. While it will be Labour figures who reach the Don't Knows, the SNP's panicked reaction shows the importance of the PM's role in the campaign.
COALITION SEQUEL SEARCHES FOR GREEN LIGHT
Sources close to the 1922 Committee are quoted in the Times and Mailwarning Dave against signing up to a second coalition without a vote of his backbenchers. The parliamentary party are the parliamentary party and taking the matter to the membership. The number to watch in both pieces is 80: the number of Tory MPs believed to be dead set against a second coalition. Someone is certainly sending a message: but who?
A MANTRA OF MISERY
Simon Danczuk broke ranks over the wekeend with a frank column in the Mail on Sunday. "Continually reciting a mantra of misery is not the answer," Mr Danczuk warned, saying that Labour need a broader offer than the cost of living crisis and to aim for more than just 35% of the vote. He made no apologies on Pienaar's Politics, telling Ed Miliband he needed to "get out more" and describing the party's strategy as 'suicidal'. Meanwhile, Tristan Osborne, Labour's candidate in Chatham and Aylesford, has been recorded by the Sunday Times lambasting the Labour leader's strategy. Mr Osborne is standing in one of Labour's 106 target seats; crucially, one where even the 5,832 votes that the Liberals got in third would be insufficient to overcome Tracey Crouch's 6,069 majority. Labour are starting to get jittery, as well they might; the latest YouGov poll has Labour on 37% to the Conservatives' 34%, while the Sun today finds that four in 10 Labour voters don't see Ed as a potential PM.
GET SCHULZ
Number 10's efforts to block Martin Schulz as the new European president are out in the open. The Times details how ministers are frantically lobbying to put the skids under Schulz's bid. Downing Street fears that Schulz will be an enemy of Dave's plans for renegotiation. Unfortunately for Mr Cameron, that the Tories no longer sit in the EPP means that they have no direct path to block Mr Schulz and are restricted to behind-the-scenes efforts.
HOLD YOUR NERVE, CLEGG SAYS
Nick Clegg sounded a warning note during his appearance on the Andrew Marr show that the Liberal Democrats must hold their nerve - and prepared the ground for a second coalition agreement that would include a referendum on membership of the European Union. Mr Clegg lost his cool, however, when challenged about the coalition negotiation process. The DPM is under significant pressure; his party oculd be entirely wiped out in the European Parliament. Small wonder that Mr Clegg's consigliere, Paddy Ashdown, is putting the frighteners about, while Vince Cable has been sent to China for the immediate aftermath.
GOOD NIGHT, BAD NIGHT
The Financial Times has a guide to what's at stake for the Westminister parties in Thursday's vote. For the Conservatives, limiting the losses to 200 would be a good night all round, while the Liberals will hope that they hold onto Kingston and take Richmond; key indicators of whether their incumbency advantage can still protect them despite the coalition. Anything less than 300 seats - and Town Hall gains in suburban areas like Merton, Redbridge and Barnet - would indicate that Labour's polling decline is very real.
Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:
Con 34%, Lab 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
TWEETS & TWITS
Now let's see what the shareholders have to say:
@ChukaUmunna: I very much welcome the rejection of Pfizer's final offer by the board of AstraZeneca.The right decision for the company and for the country
COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Martin Vander Weyer - It's not about the money, it's about success
Tim Stanley - Why Hollywood politics will never win the British vote
Telegraph View - Prepare for a noisy and tight European election
Best of the Rest
Tony Jackson - The public interest argument on AstraZeneca is overdone
Matt Ridley - If Nigel Farage was Gladstone I'd vote for him
Brian Monteith - Watchdog pays for partisan members
Something from the Weekend
Andrew Rawnsley - The Stay At Home Party will win a landslide victory
Matthew D'Ancona - It's not the Euros but the PM's response to them that counts
AGENDA
1145 LONDON: Photocall with Zac Goldsmith MP introducing 10,000 juvenile eels into the River Thames in front of Parliament.1200 WALSALL: Ed Miliband launches Labour's low pay commission
Friday, 16 May 2014
The Prime Minister's Scottish mission..
Good morning. Dave's Scottish sortie continues today. His promise of more powers for the Scottish Parliament has generated a few headlines in England - "Vote No and we'll give Scotland more power" is the p4 story in the Mail, "Scotland offered more powers" is the FT's p2 lead - but is having a rather bigger impact in Scotland. The pledge leads the frontpage of our Scottish edition and is the Scotsman's splash.
The visit carries plenty of risks for Mr Cameron. As the Scotsman leader observes, the PM is "damned if he does and damned if he doesn't". Some Labour figures within Better Together have suggested that Dave stay out entirely; Karl Turner, a Labour MP, was at it again on Twitter last night.
But it is vital for the Union that Mr Cameron's visit is a success. I said yesterday on the Telegram podcast that I would put my money on Dave remaining in Number 10 after the next election. Today's YouGov poll, with Labour on 36% to the Conservatives' 34%, has done nothing to change my mind. That means that the Scottish Labour line - that Conservativism is an English disease and Ed Miliband is the cure - is a perilous, not to mention disingenuous, line to take. The task must now be for Mr Cameron to convince Scots there is a future for the Union that includes a Tory government.
DEAR ED, THERE IS NO MONEY LEFT
The Electoral Commission's figures - released yesterday - have the papers aflutter."Tories use secret club as front for donations" is the arresting frontpage of this morning's Indy. The story itself - that donations are being funnelled through the United and Cecil Club, an organisation that is the Conservatives' seventh largest donor - feels like small beer in comparison. The Club has acted within the rules laid down by the Electoral Commission and without an attached scandal, the story is unlikely to catch fire. Still, it's allowed Labour's Michael Dugher to attack the Tories for their "shadowy donors". What Labour would give for donors, shadowy or otherwise. The party's fundraising is anaemic - they took £4.4m to the Conservatives' £6.6m - and the figure gets worse when you factor out trade union donations; without their backers in the unions they would have raised less cash than the Liberal Democrats. (Matt Holehouse has the story.)
TAXI FOR ED MILIBAND
Is the Sun shining on Ed Miliband? The Sun's page 2 story is a 'Tale of Two Britains' - something which will cheer Mr Miliband. But don't celebrate just yet, Ed; his interview with "the Sun Cabbie" is a rough affair, with the Labour leader being given a good going over on everything from his vanishing lead to immigration. He can expect a still tougher time on the World at One today, as he returns to the scene of his disastrous interview with Martha Kearney.
HAS CLEGG GONE LOOPY?
Dominic Cumming's latest blogpost is proving eeerily prophetic. "You have become a Manchurian candidate," Mr Cummings tells Nick Clegg. Today's story that the DPM tried to get the former Gove SpAd arrested is likely to do further harm to Mr Clegg. Has the whole affair driven Mr Clegg loopy, wonders James Forsyth while Fraser Nelson writes that the whole affair is putting him off coalition altogether. Mr Clegg is being made to look a ninny by Mr Gove and those running his briefing operation. Dom Cummings warns that unless he backs off on education there will be more leaks. The question though is one for Mr Cameron: who does he support? His friend Mr Gove in a political battle? Or the DPM on a more fundamental question of the proper running of government. Leaks and attacks don't do the Coalition much good. And while Mr Gove may hate it, the free schools meal thing was agreed by Mr Cameron.
STEP ASIDE BBC. MOVE OVER ITV. EXCUSE ME SKY NEWS
The Telegraph's team-up with the Guardian and YouTube has rebooted the debate about debates, as I blogged yesterday. That the debate - viewable anywhere by anyone - would be free of broadcast regulations adds another intriguing dimension. For different reasons, both Dave's team and Ed Miliband's people favour a one-on-one debate. That could now be on the cards. You can read more about it all here.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:
Con 34%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
TWEETS & TWITS
Last day before the recess and Kerry McCarthy is checking her favourites. Who says MPs don't know how to party?
@KerryMP: Just looking back through my Twitter 'favourites'. They're awesome,
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Peter Oborne - British politics is broken - and only Nigel Farage is profiting
Allison Pearson - Girls everywhere need protecting from Islamists
Telegraph View -Glory in defeat
Best of the Rest
James Forsyth - War on Gove
David Aaronovitch - Free speech must trump the right to privacy
AGENDA
1300 LONDON: Ed Miliband on the World at One.
The visit carries plenty of risks for Mr Cameron. As the Scotsman leader observes, the PM is "damned if he does and damned if he doesn't". Some Labour figures within Better Together have suggested that Dave stay out entirely; Karl Turner, a Labour MP, was at it again on Twitter last night.
But it is vital for the Union that Mr Cameron's visit is a success. I said yesterday on the Telegram podcast that I would put my money on Dave remaining in Number 10 after the next election. Today's YouGov poll, with Labour on 36% to the Conservatives' 34%, has done nothing to change my mind. That means that the Scottish Labour line - that Conservativism is an English disease and Ed Miliband is the cure - is a perilous, not to mention disingenuous, line to take. The task must now be for Mr Cameron to convince Scots there is a future for the Union that includes a Tory government.
DEAR ED, THERE IS NO MONEY LEFT
The Electoral Commission's figures - released yesterday - have the papers aflutter."Tories use secret club as front for donations" is the arresting frontpage of this morning's Indy. The story itself - that donations are being funnelled through the United and Cecil Club, an organisation that is the Conservatives' seventh largest donor - feels like small beer in comparison. The Club has acted within the rules laid down by the Electoral Commission and without an attached scandal, the story is unlikely to catch fire. Still, it's allowed Labour's Michael Dugher to attack the Tories for their "shadowy donors". What Labour would give for donors, shadowy or otherwise. The party's fundraising is anaemic - they took £4.4m to the Conservatives' £6.6m - and the figure gets worse when you factor out trade union donations; without their backers in the unions they would have raised less cash than the Liberal Democrats. (Matt Holehouse has the story.)
TAXI FOR ED MILIBAND
Is the Sun shining on Ed Miliband? The Sun's page 2 story is a 'Tale of Two Britains' - something which will cheer Mr Miliband. But don't celebrate just yet, Ed; his interview with "the Sun Cabbie" is a rough affair, with the Labour leader being given a good going over on everything from his vanishing lead to immigration. He can expect a still tougher time on the World at One today, as he returns to the scene of his disastrous interview with Martha Kearney.
HAS CLEGG GONE LOOPY?
Dominic Cumming's latest blogpost is proving eeerily prophetic. "You have become a Manchurian candidate," Mr Cummings tells Nick Clegg. Today's story that the DPM tried to get the former Gove SpAd arrested is likely to do further harm to Mr Clegg. Has the whole affair driven Mr Clegg loopy, wonders James Forsyth while Fraser Nelson writes that the whole affair is putting him off coalition altogether. Mr Clegg is being made to look a ninny by Mr Gove and those running his briefing operation. Dom Cummings warns that unless he backs off on education there will be more leaks. The question though is one for Mr Cameron: who does he support? His friend Mr Gove in a political battle? Or the DPM on a more fundamental question of the proper running of government. Leaks and attacks don't do the Coalition much good. And while Mr Gove may hate it, the free schools meal thing was agreed by Mr Cameron.
STEP ASIDE BBC. MOVE OVER ITV. EXCUSE ME SKY NEWS
The Telegraph's team-up with the Guardian and YouTube has rebooted the debate about debates, as I blogged yesterday. That the debate - viewable anywhere by anyone - would be free of broadcast regulations adds another intriguing dimension. For different reasons, both Dave's team and Ed Miliband's people favour a one-on-one debate. That could now be on the cards. You can read more about it all here.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:
Con 34%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
TWEETS & TWITS
Last day before the recess and Kerry McCarthy is checking her favourites. Who says MPs don't know how to party?
@KerryMP: Just looking back through my Twitter 'favourites'. They're awesome,
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Peter Oborne - British politics is broken - and only Nigel Farage is profiting
Allison Pearson - Girls everywhere need protecting from Islamists
Telegraph View -Glory in defeat
Best of the Rest
James Forsyth - War on Gove
David Aaronovitch - Free speech must trump the right to privacy
AGENDA
1300 LONDON: Ed Miliband on the World at One.
Thursday, 15 May 2014
Does Miliband realise how bad things are..
Good morning. Does Ed Miliband know how bad things are? Today's YouGov poll brings a measure of respite as Labour return to a narrow lead (they're on 35% to the Conservatives' 32%). Even that should make grim reading for Team Miliband, though - just 19% of voters think that Ed Miliband would make the best Prime Minister. 95% of Conservative voters think that Dave would make the best PM - just 58% of Labour voters think the same of Mr Miliband.
But, as I blogged yesterday, Ed Miliband looks, sounds and behaves like a man at the top of his game and relishing the fray. But his situation, and Labour's, is terrible, and getting worse. His policies - rent controls, price freezes and Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca - are short-term tactical stunts without credibility.
The party, however, is worried. The feud between Douglas Alexander and Ed Balls - never that far from the surface - has broken out again.The Times reports that David Axelrod is to give Ed Miliband a makeover to improve his appearances on television. It may already be too late. It appears that, even in Labour London, the party is paring back its ambitions. Sadiq Khan - who himself fears for his seat - has dropped Tory-held Barnet from Labour's list of targets. Parliamentary candidates further down the target list have long been sceptical of what one called the "36% strategy" - where Labour diehards and Liberal defectors are topped up by an extra percentage point of Tory defectors won on the doorstep - and are now finding resources are being pulled from their seats as the focus shifts from a Labour majority and towards being the largest party.
That is the backdrop to Medhi Hasan's article in this week's New Statesman; Labour has gone from arguing about how to win a majority to whether or not it should govern as a minority or with the help of the Liberal Democrats. All of which is to put the cart before a horse that may well have bolted.
HAPPY RECESS, WAR IS OVER?
Funny thing, politics. In fact, sometimes it's downright hilarious. Today offers a classic of the genre, a joint op-ed by Michael Gove and David Laws in the Times under the headline "We are not at war over free school lunches". No, wait, really. According to the p2 story, the article was "demanded" by Nick Clegg as a price for a truce brokered with David Cameron after several days of tit-for-tat leaks. Many will study this as evidence that Mr Cameron has sat on his friend Mr Gove. And as the head who appeared on Today earlier explained, there are genuine gaps in funding. But I can just imagine Dominic Cummings reading out extracts of the piece over the breakfast table and howling with laughter: "the policy that we are rumoured to be at loggerheads about" ha ha ha ha ha! "is that rarest of political treasures: a policy that has true cross party support." Stop! I can't bear it! "We are confident the policy will be delivered on time and on budget." Please! Ha ha! Too much! "Neither of us believe in policy making simply to secure headlines." Ho ho ho ho. "We are certainly both" - both! - "passionate advocates of this policy and, working together, we are determined to ensure its successful delivery". Chokes.
DAVE'S SCOTTISH SORTIE
David Cameron heads for Glasgow today for an overnight visit to Scotland. The Prime Minister is taking advice on his role from Better Together - as I wrote earlier in the week "he knows what he doesn't know about Scotland" - but is anxious to get stuck in to the referendum campaign. His involvement will step up after the Euros next week. He may not be popular as Tory leader but as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom he has a voice and Scots would find it odd if he stayed out. Indeed, it was his flying visit to Aberdeen that was held against him. This time he's there for longer, and has prepared the ground. There's a brief oped in the Sun: "Cam on…let's stick together". It's an upbeat message - "Scotland puts the Great into Great Britain" - which has been briefed across the papers. He makes a point of evoking the memory of John Smith, who died 20 years ago as the Telegraph reports. As the Mail puts it, he is the good cop to George Osborne's bad cop before the Scottish Affairs Committee yesterday, where he hammered the message about Scotland being stripped off the pound if it voted Yes. Alex Salmond has welcomed Mr Cameron by saying Scotland would "never elect people like him to govern people like us". Given that whiff of ethnic nastiness, the FT helpfully details the SNP leader's recent gaffes.
DENY FARAGE THREE TIMES, TORIES TOLD
It's all hands to the pump in Newark. Tory MPs have been told they must visit the market town at least three times in the run-up to the by-election on June 5. The aim is to hand Ukip a heavy defeat and put a quick end to any European blues. The really interesting thing, as I wrote yesterday, is what it reveals about the growing unity of purpose in the Conservative ranks.
NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS
There won't be a hike in interest rates before the election. Mark Carney believes that the recovery is still too fragile to end the flow of cheap money quite yet. Meanwhile, the public are more optimistic about the economy than at any point in the last thirt-six years according to the Ipsos Mori's Economic Optimism Index. 53% of people surveyed expect the economy to get better over the year ahead compared with just 18% who expect it to get worse. APRÈS MOI, LE DELUGE
The government's migration target is not on course, Anna Soubry told the World At One. The defence minister's remark will raise hackles at the Home Office, who will also notice that Yvette Cooper is on the warpath (she's written for the Mirror today). With so much good news, immigration remains one of the few items in the government's in-tray with the possibility to disrupt Conservative momentum.
UKIP'S COUNCILLORS, A YEAR ON
A year ago, Ukip won 139 seats and a quarter of the vote in the local election. Ukip's class of 2013 has the highest attendance rating of any party, but have also been the cause of controversy throughout the year.The Guardian looks into their first year in office. was so convinced he would win that he didn't turn up to the count and Andy Moore, the former Liberal Democrat who was censured for making a remark about Carina Trimingham's legs.
AUSTIN MITCHELL DIGS IN
Austin Mitchell's description of Pfizer as "rapists" has drawn an angry response. He's refused to apologise, and Nicky Morgan has written a letter asking Ed Miliband what he intends to do about the affair. Also asking questions of the Labour leader is LabourList editor Mark Ferguson, who has called for Mr Mitchell to apologise or lose the whip.
WHAT'S VINCE UP TO?
Vince Cable has urged for staff on zero-hours contracts to be given the right to request a fixed-hours contract. It puts Mr Cable into further alignment with the Labour leader and will set tongues wagging. It also puts the Business Secretary to the left of Nick Clegg shortly before what is expected to be a difficult few weeks for the DPM.The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can followStephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll.
Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%TWEETS & TWITS
Last day before the recess and Kerry McCarthy is checking her favourites. Who says MPs don't know how to party?
@KerryMP: Just looking back through my Twitter 'favourites'. They're awesome,
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Peter Oborne - British politics is broken - and only Nigel Farage is profiting
Allison Pearson - Girls everywhere need protecting from Islamists
Telegraph View - Glory in defeat
Best of the Rest
James Forsyth - War on Gove
David Aaronovitch - Free speech must trump the right to privacy
AGENDA
1100 LONDON: Electoral Commission releases regular party donations figures.
1800 LONDON: Sadiq Khan speech on tackling race inequality at Operation Black Vote.1330 LONDON: William Hague hosts Friends of Syria Meeting, attended by US Secretary of State John Kerry and representatives of Syrian opposition. Meeting opens at 0930. Press conference at 1415.
Even the irreconcilables are on side..
Good morning. Tory high command was initially circumspect about Lord Ashcroft's poll giving the Conservatives a lead on Monday night. They were cautious about investing too much in a new measure that didn't come with months or years of previous comparative data. The appearance a few hours later of a matching ICM poll however changed things. As I mentioned yesterday, it's had a galvanising effect. It's also served to confirm a development that has become increasingly apparent in recent weeks: the Tories are uniting behind David Cameron. I know, sounds a daft thing to say. Surely a party in power is united behind its leader? But we all know that one of the hallmarks of the Cameron premiership, until recently, was a shocking lack of unity about him and his leadership. His first four years in office were marked by mutterings, threats of a coup, letters to the chairman of the '22, and a steady drumbeat of hostility from his backbenchers. The extent of his unpopularity among his colleagues was a constant source of wonder. At one point about a year ago things were so unstable that I and other feared that Mr Cameron might find himself bundled out almost by accident, swept aside by the inchoate grumpiness of his MPs.
Consider the situation now. The muttering has almost completely stopped. The irreconcilables are quiet. There'd the odd rumble from the likes of David Davis, but otherwise all is sweetness and light. A few months ago some of them let it be known that if the Euro-elections produced the dire result everyone predicts, a delegation would be sent in to see the PM to demand…things: a tougher line on Europe and immigration etc. Now even that idea seems to have been quietly dropped. Economic success has shut everyone up. Poll success will do the same. The prospects of a panic after next week's elections are fading. Downing Street was braced for trouble but it now looks unlikely. What worried Mr Cameron and his team was not a real panic but a fake one, engineered by his opponents. On Monday night grandees of the Tory outist wing were invited in to CCHQ for supper and a chat with Grant Shapps. Those present included John Redwood, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin. The plan had been to enjoin them to rally round, stay on side, stay quiet. Turns out there was no need. It was Mr Redwood, I am told, who urged Mr Shapps and his colleagues to hold the line, keep their heads. The last thing anyone should do, he said, was to go out and stir trouble in the media or try to undermine Mr Cameron. Cue relief in CCHQ to find that the heavy mob are now on side.
That unity of purpose will be more evident in coming days. All ministers below Cabinet rank attended a meeting in Downing Street yesterday to be told by the Chief Whip Sir George Young and Mr Shapps that everyone is expected to make at least three appearances in the Newark by-election campaign. The suggestion was clear: with a reshuffle imminent, prospects will be directly linked to campaigning enthusiasm - Cabinet included. Mr Cameron dropped in on the meeting to reinforce the point.
So let us pause to note this moment. Whether it's because of George Osborne's economic wizardry, or Lynton Crosby's message enforcement, or Downing Street's organisational improvements, or David Cameron's resilience, or the mess Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg find themselves in, the fact is that the Tories are united in a common purpose. That is not to say that the wider Conservative family is happy, reconciled to Dave, or agreed on some big issues. But No10's hope that at some point, later rather than sooner, the party, especially its MPs, would wake up and smell the coffee seems to have been realised. Which is why we should expect the markets to shift quite quickly. Next week won't be great - though I suspect it won't be as bad as the dire third place CCHQ tells us it expects - but the betting must now be that David Cameron will indeed pull it off next year.
RUMBLE IN THE BUBBLE
Nick Clegg was ambushed on Wato with revelations that his pet project - free school meals for schoolchildren between the ages of four and seven - is the subject of a "red" rating from the DfE, which means there is a decent chance the whole thing won't happen at all. The leak will further sour relations between the coalition partners. Former Gove SpAd Dominic Cummings has added further fuel to the fire with a blog about the affair. The whole thing will further the Lib Dem sense that they are the victims of a Gove-led briefing war. Mr Cummings feels that the whole affair reveals the problems with government-via-LBC; the path to Mr Clegg's red rating was littered with poorly-costed announcements and surprises from the Liberals. Mr Cummings is scathing about the DPM's motivations, too: "Clegg thinks he can overcome the strategic disaster of tuition fees by picking fights with his own government on page 10 of the papers".
MARKING THE OCCASION Today's big news is the publication of the Bank of England growth and inflation forecasts, although the real show is Mark Carney' s Q&A session, where he is expected to reveal whether or not rates are likely to rise in the first quarter of 2015, if not before. The rates question puts Mr Carney in something of a bind, as Hamish McRae explains in the Indy. With inflation running at 1.7%, there's a case for cheap money, but asset price inflation is far higher - house price inflation is at 11%. For all the worries about Help to Buy - Ed Balls is latest on the scene on page 3 of today's FT - the scheme accounted for only 2,572 sales between October and January (a million homes a year are sold in the United Kingdom). The big political question is what happens if rates go up in advance of the election.
DARLING ENDURES
I've been asking around about the Mail's claim yesterday that Alistair Darling "has effectively been dumped" as the head of Better Together and replaced by Douglas Alexander. The answer is a firm 'No'. If anything, what we are seeing is a rallying of the clan around Mr Darling. (I've blogged about it all in a bit more detail.) With the Euro campaign coming to a close, the phoney war is about to end and the real battle for the Union is about to begin; Dave is due to make another trip to Scotland soon, and as Alan Cochrane writes today, the Union may be in better shape than we fear.
NO, HE CAN'T
Ed Miliband's woes continue. "Labour panics over Ed's dismal ratings" is the Mail's page 2 lead. The Labour leader's ratings are now lower than Gordon Brown's. It's the fate of Mr Brown's opponent that will haunt Labour though; as the Mirror reminds us, Dave had a 16-point lead at this point in the parliament; and we all know what happened to that. YouGov today has Labour level with the Conservatives on thirty-four points. David Axelrod meets with the Shadow Cabinet for the first time today, but as Kevin Maguire writes "Ed Miliband is no Barack Obama and Axelrod will have his work cut out convincing Britain that Ed We Can."
LATEST ON PFIZER
Ian Read's appearance before the Business Select Committee may have been more heat than light, and most of the coverage is devoted to the eyebrow-raising claim of AstraZeneca's head, Pascal Soriot, that the Pfizer takeover will "cost lives". For all the Franco-Australian may have belied the idea that AZ is a national champion, the affair remains one of the few areas where Labour can be said to be having a good war.
DARLING'S TAX BOMBSHELL
A little-understood change introduced by the last Labour government means that those earning between £100,000 and £120,000 are paying a tax rate of 60p in every pound. Council tax bills are now assessed on property values which will soon be 25 years out of date, and a £1 pay rise can make you £200 worse off. The UK's tax system is increasingly unfit for purpose, says the IFS. James Kirkup has the story.
NORMAN BAKER, ACE INVESTIGATOR
The Chilcot Inquiry is being delayed - and it's all because of Mr Tony's correspondence with George Bush. That's according to Norma Baker, at any rate.He has written a letter to Sir John about the delay and the Mail has a copy. It's worth remembering, though, that Norman Baker also believes that the government was involved in the death of David Kell.
(FRAC)KING IN THE NORTH!
Lord Howell has called for fracking to be kept to the North. He's made the Times and the Telegraph, but you can expect that the lefty blogs - who made a great deal of hay when he described the North as 'desolate' - will be on it soon.
DRIVING LESSONS REQUIRED?
It's not just Ed Balls who crashed the car. Michael Gove is a serial offender too, his wife reveals.
A NEW COALITION PARTNER FOR DAVE?
In an interview with the Sun's Cabbie, Nigel Farage also appears to be coming round to Dave, offering him a coalition deal. Just one snag: as the Sun's editorial notes, if Ukip have seats in 2015, they won't have a Tory government to bargain with.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll. Welcome to Britain, Mr Axelrod:Con 34%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%TWEETS & TWITS
This story isn't going away:
@ChukaUmunna: Following our meeting with Pfizer's Ian Read yesterday, I will be meeting with AstraZeneca's Pascal Soriot today.
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Mary Riddell - As Labour stall, it's time to bring on the new Balls
Alan Cochrane - The Union is in better shape than we think
Telegraph View - Glory in defeatBest of the Rest
Daniel Finkelstein - The man who won a Nobel prize for parkingHamish McRae - How much do you spend on a haircut?
Simon Jenkins - Ed Miliband must give up his love of state intervention
AGENDA
0900 LONDON: Vince Cable speech at the Resolution Foundation. The Business Secretary will deliver a speech on "building a shared recovery - lessons from the downturn".
0915 LONDON: Pfizer, AstraZeneca and science minister David Willetts give evidence to Commons Science and Technology Committee on takeover bid.
0930 LONDON: Unemployment figures published.
1030 LONDON: Bank of England quarterly growth and inflation forecasts, followed by Q&A with Mark Carney.
1030 Belfast: Nigel Farage in Belfast.
Consider the situation now. The muttering has almost completely stopped. The irreconcilables are quiet. There'd the odd rumble from the likes of David Davis, but otherwise all is sweetness and light. A few months ago some of them let it be known that if the Euro-elections produced the dire result everyone predicts, a delegation would be sent in to see the PM to demand…things: a tougher line on Europe and immigration etc. Now even that idea seems to have been quietly dropped. Economic success has shut everyone up. Poll success will do the same. The prospects of a panic after next week's elections are fading. Downing Street was braced for trouble but it now looks unlikely. What worried Mr Cameron and his team was not a real panic but a fake one, engineered by his opponents. On Monday night grandees of the Tory outist wing were invited in to CCHQ for supper and a chat with Grant Shapps. Those present included John Redwood, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin. The plan had been to enjoin them to rally round, stay on side, stay quiet. Turns out there was no need. It was Mr Redwood, I am told, who urged Mr Shapps and his colleagues to hold the line, keep their heads. The last thing anyone should do, he said, was to go out and stir trouble in the media or try to undermine Mr Cameron. Cue relief in CCHQ to find that the heavy mob are now on side.
That unity of purpose will be more evident in coming days. All ministers below Cabinet rank attended a meeting in Downing Street yesterday to be told by the Chief Whip Sir George Young and Mr Shapps that everyone is expected to make at least three appearances in the Newark by-election campaign. The suggestion was clear: with a reshuffle imminent, prospects will be directly linked to campaigning enthusiasm - Cabinet included. Mr Cameron dropped in on the meeting to reinforce the point.
So let us pause to note this moment. Whether it's because of George Osborne's economic wizardry, or Lynton Crosby's message enforcement, or Downing Street's organisational improvements, or David Cameron's resilience, or the mess Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg find themselves in, the fact is that the Tories are united in a common purpose. That is not to say that the wider Conservative family is happy, reconciled to Dave, or agreed on some big issues. But No10's hope that at some point, later rather than sooner, the party, especially its MPs, would wake up and smell the coffee seems to have been realised. Which is why we should expect the markets to shift quite quickly. Next week won't be great - though I suspect it won't be as bad as the dire third place CCHQ tells us it expects - but the betting must now be that David Cameron will indeed pull it off next year.
RUMBLE IN THE BUBBLE
Nick Clegg was ambushed on Wato with revelations that his pet project - free school meals for schoolchildren between the ages of four and seven - is the subject of a "red" rating from the DfE, which means there is a decent chance the whole thing won't happen at all. The leak will further sour relations between the coalition partners. Former Gove SpAd Dominic Cummings has added further fuel to the fire with a blog about the affair. The whole thing will further the Lib Dem sense that they are the victims of a Gove-led briefing war. Mr Cummings feels that the whole affair reveals the problems with government-via-LBC; the path to Mr Clegg's red rating was littered with poorly-costed announcements and surprises from the Liberals. Mr Cummings is scathing about the DPM's motivations, too: "Clegg thinks he can overcome the strategic disaster of tuition fees by picking fights with his own government on page 10 of the papers".
MARKING THE OCCASION Today's big news is the publication of the Bank of England growth and inflation forecasts, although the real show is Mark Carney' s Q&A session, where he is expected to reveal whether or not rates are likely to rise in the first quarter of 2015, if not before. The rates question puts Mr Carney in something of a bind, as Hamish McRae explains in the Indy. With inflation running at 1.7%, there's a case for cheap money, but asset price inflation is far higher - house price inflation is at 11%. For all the worries about Help to Buy - Ed Balls is latest on the scene on page 3 of today's FT - the scheme accounted for only 2,572 sales between October and January (a million homes a year are sold in the United Kingdom). The big political question is what happens if rates go up in advance of the election.
DARLING ENDURES
I've been asking around about the Mail's claim yesterday that Alistair Darling "has effectively been dumped" as the head of Better Together and replaced by Douglas Alexander. The answer is a firm 'No'. If anything, what we are seeing is a rallying of the clan around Mr Darling. (I've blogged about it all in a bit more detail.) With the Euro campaign coming to a close, the phoney war is about to end and the real battle for the Union is about to begin; Dave is due to make another trip to Scotland soon, and as Alan Cochrane writes today, the Union may be in better shape than we fear.
RISING STAR FLAMES OUT
"They are turning the election into a game of 'us' and 'them'. Well, I am with 'them'." That's the verdict of Sanya-Jeet Thandi, formerly one of Ukip's bright young things, who has left the party and will now abstain in the European elections.The coverage is everywhere. Having lost Miss Thandi, Nigel Farage has also managed to upset Marine Le Pen as well. She believes that Mr Farage has attacked her as a racist in order to surpass her as Europe's leading Eurosceptic.NO, HE CAN'T
Ed Miliband's woes continue. "Labour panics over Ed's dismal ratings" is the Mail's page 2 lead. The Labour leader's ratings are now lower than Gordon Brown's. It's the fate of Mr Brown's opponent that will haunt Labour though; as the Mirror reminds us, Dave had a 16-point lead at this point in the parliament; and we all know what happened to that. YouGov today has Labour level with the Conservatives on thirty-four points. David Axelrod meets with the Shadow Cabinet for the first time today, but as Kevin Maguire writes "Ed Miliband is no Barack Obama and Axelrod will have his work cut out convincing Britain that Ed We Can."
LATEST ON PFIZER
Ian Read's appearance before the Business Select Committee may have been more heat than light, and most of the coverage is devoted to the eyebrow-raising claim of AstraZeneca's head, Pascal Soriot, that the Pfizer takeover will "cost lives". For all the Franco-Australian may have belied the idea that AZ is a national champion, the affair remains one of the few areas where Labour can be said to be having a good war.
DARLING'S TAX BOMBSHELL
A little-understood change introduced by the last Labour government means that those earning between £100,000 and £120,000 are paying a tax rate of 60p in every pound. Council tax bills are now assessed on property values which will soon be 25 years out of date, and a £1 pay rise can make you £200 worse off. The UK's tax system is increasingly unfit for purpose, says the IFS. James Kirkup has the story.
NORMAN BAKER, ACE INVESTIGATOR
The Chilcot Inquiry is being delayed - and it's all because of Mr Tony's correspondence with George Bush. That's according to Norma Baker, at any rate.He has written a letter to Sir John about the delay and the Mail has a copy. It's worth remembering, though, that Norman Baker also believes that the government was involved in the death of David Kell.
(FRAC)KING IN THE NORTH!
Lord Howell has called for fracking to be kept to the North. He's made the Times and the Telegraph, but you can expect that the lefty blogs - who made a great deal of hay when he described the North as 'desolate' - will be on it soon.
DRIVING LESSONS REQUIRED?
It's not just Ed Balls who crashed the car. Michael Gove is a serial offender too, his wife reveals.
A NEW COALITION PARTNER FOR DAVE?
In an interview with the Sun's Cabbie, Nigel Farage also appears to be coming round to Dave, offering him a coalition deal. Just one snag: as the Sun's editorial notes, if Ukip have seats in 2015, they won't have a Tory government to bargain with.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll. Welcome to Britain, Mr Axelrod:Con 34%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%TWEETS & TWITS
This story isn't going away:
@ChukaUmunna: Following our meeting with Pfizer's Ian Read yesterday, I will be meeting with AstraZeneca's Pascal Soriot today.
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Mary Riddell - As Labour stall, it's time to bring on the new Balls
Alan Cochrane - The Union is in better shape than we think
Telegraph View - Glory in defeatBest of the Rest
Daniel Finkelstein - The man who won a Nobel prize for parkingHamish McRae - How much do you spend on a haircut?
Simon Jenkins - Ed Miliband must give up his love of state intervention
AGENDA
0900 LONDON: Vince Cable speech at the Resolution Foundation. The Business Secretary will deliver a speech on "building a shared recovery - lessons from the downturn".
0915 LONDON: Pfizer, AstraZeneca and science minister David Willetts give evidence to Commons Science and Technology Committee on takeover bid.
0930 LONDON: Unemployment figures published.
1030 LONDON: Bank of England quarterly growth and inflation forecasts, followed by Q&A with Mark Carney.
1030 Belfast: Nigel Farage in Belfast.
Tuesday, 13 May 2014
Labour's poll worries..
Two polls giving the Tories a lead - and on the morning Labour's fancy new American hire flies in to town for his first meeting with Ed Miliband: the effect on Conservative MPs will be equal to an adrenaline shot to the heart. They have been desperate for evidence that the tide is turning, and now they have it. Even if we now get polls showing a Labour lead, Tories at last have evidence that things can go their way, and that they are steadily overhauling Labour. Polls are about psychology as much as about facts. They shape what people like me say, and they affect the mood of politicians. This morning's talk is of a boost to the Tories, but more telling will be the blow to Labour.
There is no doubt that the ICM poll in the Guardian, and the Ashcroft poll (everywhere) will liven things up. The Guardian splash catches it: "Tories on top as Labour rating sinks to four-year low". ICM's numbers are: C33 L31 LD13 Ukip15. The paper reflects nerves in the Miliband camp, and Patrick Wintour assesses what David Axelrod is likely to do when he sees the headlines. He says Barack Obama's guru will need to speak "blunt truths" to Mr Miliband about his campaign. Elsewhere it's "Labour sink to 28 year poll low" in the Sun, the Times on p1 talks of a "Pre-election boost for Cameron as Tories jump ahead in the polls", and the Mail says "Tories take first poll lead" (the Ashcroft poll, the first of what will be an important series, has C34 L32 LD9 Ukip15).
In my column this morning I look at the pressure of 24 hour social media scrutiny on David Cameron and political leaders more generally, and what it will mean for the election next year. The way polls echo on Twitter is a case in point. Twitter acts as an accelerator of fact and rumour: a poll that would have sat on a newspaper's pages now goes careening around the Internet. It gets seen by more people. Labour activists will know far more quickly than before that their party is suddenly behind in the polls, and what people are saying about it. That knowledge will reinforce the doubt that has already taken hold. For a few months now senior Labour people have been noticeably cautious about their prospects. "The election is there to be won" they say, which is telling given that the polls have until recently said that it IS won. The polls will test Labour's capacity to remain united in the face of imminent failure.
What effect will it have on Tories? Will Mr Cameron get any credit for it? His MPs have been markedly more behaved since the turn of the year. Talk of a challenge has vanished. Even the residual threats of a visit from a delegation to demand more right-wing policies after the "failure" of the Euros have faded. The irreconcilables are quiet, save the odd muttering from David Davis. Economic success has cheered them up, and now they can see tangible psephological results. There is still miles to go before they can start to hope for that majority Mr Cameron claims to be working for. But optimism is contagious, and self-reinforcing. Good news begets more good news. It isn't quite the Big Mo, but at some point someone will speculate that next week's elections might turn out to be bad, but not disastrous. Ukip in particular should worry.
MAKE GOVE NOT WAR
"Stop this feud!" is the Mail's page 8 headline. In a tone a little more menacing than Harold Macmillan's "little local difficulty", Dave told ITV that dealing with these "noises off" came with the territory, "and believe me, they will be dealt with.". That means no counter-strike from Michael Gove, although he was able to work off some of his ire against Tristram Hunt in the Commons yesterday, who had a throughly bad day in the office. "Our hunky lovely has turned out to be a clunker," was Quentin Letts' verdict, which may well have been echoed in Ed Miliband's office. Mr Gove "dealt with Mr Hunt as smoothly as a snooker referee dusting the cue ball"was Michael Deacon's. John Crace summed up the whole affair: "This is currently one of parliament's bigger mismatches." A reminder, too, that the coalition may be divided over education policy, but it does at least have one.
WHO PAYS THE POLICEMAN?Boko Haram's video of the abducted schoolgirls is everywhere. Stills dominate the frontpages of the Telegraph, the Guardian and the Independent. The pictures and the coverage have, rightly, horrified people. It's worth, however, turning to page 8 of today's Telegraph. "Forces face further cuts" is the story. "Defence ministers spend less on kit but fear surprise bills" says page 2 of the FT. Without the benefit of a ringfence, the MoD - like MoJ - has taken the brunt of the cuts. It seems that we still want to act as the policemen of the world. But are we willing to foot the bill?
24 HOURS TO SAVE ED MILIBAND
Elect a Labour government and see a GP within 48 hours. That's Ed Miliband's latest wheeze as the polls tighten. It has all the hallmarks of an Ed Miliband announcement; superficially popular, expensive, but very quickly the subject of sceptical comment from experts (Sarah Wollaston is first on the scene). Privately, some Labour insiders wonder whether announcing another £100m worth of spending is what the doctor ordered. In any case, the announcement has been buried beneath the headlines about Labour's poll worries. What little there is mostly negative: "New Ed-ache" is the Sun's verdict.
CUTTER LAWSON
Lord Lawson's interview with the Times today is sure to make its mark. He wants the government to go further on tax and scrap the 45p rate altogether, packaged with a cut to basic rate to make it "politically easier to sell". The expansion of the 40p rate is a live issue and one that Downing Street is aware of; but they will also remember all too well how abolishing the 50p rate - for all its policy success - triggered a collapse in their poll lead. There was also a nod to George Osborne's ambitions for the top job; with Lord Lawson praising his successor's record at the Treasury.
LAZY NIGEL
Ukip's MEPs are the laziest MEPs. The ongoing battle between the Thunderer and the People's Army continues, David Charter reveals that Ukip has the lowest voting average of all of the 76 European parties with more than three MPs, while three of the six laziest MEPs were Ukip members, including Nigel Farage and his deputy, Paul Nuttall. In a happy note for Dave, Britain's hardest-working MEP is a Conservative, Charles Tannock.
BORIS AND DAVE TO THE RESCUE!
Boris and Dave's campaign trip turned into a rescue mission when theycame to the aid of a woman who collapsed in the street while the dynamic duo were campaigning in the street. It certainly knocks Mr Tony's cornetto into a cocked hat.
BLONDE ON BLONDE
Margaret Thatcher was "tricksy" when she talked about Britain's relations with the EU, Boris Johnson has told the Telegraph. The comments came as part of a video interview about his time in Brussels as part of our Europe Week.
MR BROWN'S SCHOOL RUN
The Times Diary reports a rare excursion into public speaking for Gordon Brown, to the exclusive Highgate School for Boys. Could the fact that the elder Brown is nearing school age have anything to do with it, the Times wonders.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:Con 35%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%TWEETS & TWITS
Glyn Davies isn't popping champagne corks quite yet:
@GlynDaviesMP: I still think no General Election opinion poll should be taken seriously til September - even if it is nice to see Tories in the lead
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Benedict Brogan - A day in the life of David Cameron
Telegraph View - Labour's posturing is shown up by Michael Gove
Philip Johnston - Politicians have stopped listening to usBest of the Rest
Ian Birrell - Salute the super-richSteve Richards - Despite the rifts, the Coalition will stagger on until the election
Janan Ganesh - Conservatives still fail to grasp the minority vote
AGENDA
0930 LONDON: Chief executives of Pfizer and AstraZeneca, Vince Cable and unions give evidence on takeover bid to Commons Business Innovation and Skills Committee.
1000 LONDON: Celebrities v MPs charity football match at Craven Cottage in aid of the Cystic Fibrosis Trust. Team members include Alistair Campbell, Angus Deayton, British high jumper Dalton Grant, Sunderland boss Gus Poyet and Olympic rowing champion Mark Hunter.
1300 LONDON: Nick Clegg on WATO.
1400 LONDON: Lord David Trimble briefs MPs about on-the-runs.
1600 LONDON: Prime Minister before Liaison Committee.
1800 LONDON: Oliver Letwin speech and Q&A on the role of the state. Institute for Government, 2 Carlton Gardens, SW1Y 5AA.
There is no doubt that the ICM poll in the Guardian, and the Ashcroft poll (everywhere) will liven things up. The Guardian splash catches it: "Tories on top as Labour rating sinks to four-year low". ICM's numbers are: C33 L31 LD13 Ukip15. The paper reflects nerves in the Miliband camp, and Patrick Wintour assesses what David Axelrod is likely to do when he sees the headlines. He says Barack Obama's guru will need to speak "blunt truths" to Mr Miliband about his campaign. Elsewhere it's "Labour sink to 28 year poll low" in the Sun, the Times on p1 talks of a "Pre-election boost for Cameron as Tories jump ahead in the polls", and the Mail says "Tories take first poll lead" (the Ashcroft poll, the first of what will be an important series, has C34 L32 LD9 Ukip15).
In my column this morning I look at the pressure of 24 hour social media scrutiny on David Cameron and political leaders more generally, and what it will mean for the election next year. The way polls echo on Twitter is a case in point. Twitter acts as an accelerator of fact and rumour: a poll that would have sat on a newspaper's pages now goes careening around the Internet. It gets seen by more people. Labour activists will know far more quickly than before that their party is suddenly behind in the polls, and what people are saying about it. That knowledge will reinforce the doubt that has already taken hold. For a few months now senior Labour people have been noticeably cautious about their prospects. "The election is there to be won" they say, which is telling given that the polls have until recently said that it IS won. The polls will test Labour's capacity to remain united in the face of imminent failure.
What effect will it have on Tories? Will Mr Cameron get any credit for it? His MPs have been markedly more behaved since the turn of the year. Talk of a challenge has vanished. Even the residual threats of a visit from a delegation to demand more right-wing policies after the "failure" of the Euros have faded. The irreconcilables are quiet, save the odd muttering from David Davis. Economic success has cheered them up, and now they can see tangible psephological results. There is still miles to go before they can start to hope for that majority Mr Cameron claims to be working for. But optimism is contagious, and self-reinforcing. Good news begets more good news. It isn't quite the Big Mo, but at some point someone will speculate that next week's elections might turn out to be bad, but not disastrous. Ukip in particular should worry.
MAKE GOVE NOT WAR
"Stop this feud!" is the Mail's page 8 headline. In a tone a little more menacing than Harold Macmillan's "little local difficulty", Dave told ITV that dealing with these "noises off" came with the territory, "and believe me, they will be dealt with.". That means no counter-strike from Michael Gove, although he was able to work off some of his ire against Tristram Hunt in the Commons yesterday, who had a throughly bad day in the office. "Our hunky lovely has turned out to be a clunker," was Quentin Letts' verdict, which may well have been echoed in Ed Miliband's office. Mr Gove "dealt with Mr Hunt as smoothly as a snooker referee dusting the cue ball"was Michael Deacon's. John Crace summed up the whole affair: "This is currently one of parliament's bigger mismatches." A reminder, too, that the coalition may be divided over education policy, but it does at least have one.
FAREWELL, DARLING?
The Mail reports that Alistair Darling has been all-but-sacked from his post at the top of Better Together. The story is that won't be a formal announcement - the last thing anyone wants is to hand Yes Scotland a scalp - Douglas Alexander is to take the reins following cross-party talks. Meanwhile, the FT discusses the Yes campaign's growing optimism. If it's true, the hope within Better Together must be that Mr Darling's removal clears the way for Gordon Brown and the rest of Labour's Scottish beasts to play a bigger role in the campaign's closing months.WHO PAYS THE POLICEMAN?Boko Haram's video of the abducted schoolgirls is everywhere. Stills dominate the frontpages of the Telegraph, the Guardian and the Independent. The pictures and the coverage have, rightly, horrified people. It's worth, however, turning to page 8 of today's Telegraph. "Forces face further cuts" is the story. "Defence ministers spend less on kit but fear surprise bills" says page 2 of the FT. Without the benefit of a ringfence, the MoD - like MoJ - has taken the brunt of the cuts. It seems that we still want to act as the policemen of the world. But are we willing to foot the bill?
24 HOURS TO SAVE ED MILIBAND
Elect a Labour government and see a GP within 48 hours. That's Ed Miliband's latest wheeze as the polls tighten. It has all the hallmarks of an Ed Miliband announcement; superficially popular, expensive, but very quickly the subject of sceptical comment from experts (Sarah Wollaston is first on the scene). Privately, some Labour insiders wonder whether announcing another £100m worth of spending is what the doctor ordered. In any case, the announcement has been buried beneath the headlines about Labour's poll worries. What little there is mostly negative: "New Ed-ache" is the Sun's verdict.
WILL THEY, WON'T THEY?
The Pfizer saga rumbles on. Ian Read, the Pfizer CEO, is due to meet with Ed Miliband and Chuka Umunna before being quizzed by the Business Select Committee. Even the Conservatives on the committee are beginning to sound suspiciously French, with Brian Binley telling the Telegraph that Britain's "crown jewels" need the same level of protection as companies on the Continent. It will be interesting to see how Robin Walker, Caroline Dineage and Nadhim Zadhawi in particular approach the hearing; the former two are PPSes while Zadhawi sits on Number 10 Policy Board. Their behaviour is likely to come under scrutiny as people look for signs of intent from the government over the takeover. Another day brings another day of hostile headlines from the Mail, too. Downing Street is likely to be grateful that Mr Miliband's woes have relegated the takeover to the business pages.CUTTER LAWSON
Lord Lawson's interview with the Times today is sure to make its mark. He wants the government to go further on tax and scrap the 45p rate altogether, packaged with a cut to basic rate to make it "politically easier to sell". The expansion of the 40p rate is a live issue and one that Downing Street is aware of; but they will also remember all too well how abolishing the 50p rate - for all its policy success - triggered a collapse in their poll lead. There was also a nod to George Osborne's ambitions for the top job; with Lord Lawson praising his successor's record at the Treasury.
LAZY NIGEL
Ukip's MEPs are the laziest MEPs. The ongoing battle between the Thunderer and the People's Army continues, David Charter reveals that Ukip has the lowest voting average of all of the 76 European parties with more than three MPs, while three of the six laziest MEPs were Ukip members, including Nigel Farage and his deputy, Paul Nuttall. In a happy note for Dave, Britain's hardest-working MEP is a Conservative, Charles Tannock.
BORIS AND DAVE TO THE RESCUE!
Boris and Dave's campaign trip turned into a rescue mission when theycame to the aid of a woman who collapsed in the street while the dynamic duo were campaigning in the street. It certainly knocks Mr Tony's cornetto into a cocked hat.
BLONDE ON BLONDE
Margaret Thatcher was "tricksy" when she talked about Britain's relations with the EU, Boris Johnson has told the Telegraph. The comments came as part of a video interview about his time in Brussels as part of our Europe Week.
MR BROWN'S SCHOOL RUN
The Times Diary reports a rare excursion into public speaking for Gordon Brown, to the exclusive Highgate School for Boys. Could the fact that the elder Brown is nearing school age have anything to do with it, the Times wonders.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:Con 35%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%TWEETS & TWITS
Glyn Davies isn't popping champagne corks quite yet:
@GlynDaviesMP: I still think no General Election opinion poll should be taken seriously til September - even if it is nice to see Tories in the lead
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Benedict Brogan - A day in the life of David Cameron
Telegraph View - Labour's posturing is shown up by Michael Gove
Philip Johnston - Politicians have stopped listening to usBest of the Rest
Ian Birrell - Salute the super-richSteve Richards - Despite the rifts, the Coalition will stagger on until the election
Janan Ganesh - Conservatives still fail to grasp the minority vote
AGENDA
0930 LONDON: Chief executives of Pfizer and AstraZeneca, Vince Cable and unions give evidence on takeover bid to Commons Business Innovation and Skills Committee.
1000 LONDON: Celebrities v MPs charity football match at Craven Cottage in aid of the Cystic Fibrosis Trust. Team members include Alistair Campbell, Angus Deayton, British high jumper Dalton Grant, Sunderland boss Gus Poyet and Olympic rowing champion Mark Hunter.
1300 LONDON: Nick Clegg on WATO.
1400 LONDON: Lord David Trimble briefs MPs about on-the-runs.
1600 LONDON: Prime Minister before Liaison Committee.
1800 LONDON: Oliver Letwin speech and Q&A on the role of the state. Institute for Government, 2 Carlton Gardens, SW1Y 5AA.
Education, education and war..
Good morning. The playground spat between Michael Gove and Nick Clegg is turning serious. At this rate, it will become difficult for the Prime Minister to brush it aside as a little local difficulty. With Westminster about to go through the turmoil of the European and local elections, the dispute could destabilise the Coalition beyond what it is capable of enduring. Does someone need to call in the dog handlers?
Quite who started it is debatable. There is no doubt that the Education Secretary has for some time been pursuing a sustained guerrilla war against the Lib Dems in government, to the delight of his colleagues (and more often than not Number 10). This has become more apparent since the departure of Dominic Cummings. If it is true that by their special advisers ye shall know them, then Mr Cummings is proof that behind Mr Gove's charming exterior there is a vicious street fighter who understands that politics is combat that allows no quarter. Mr Cummings holds the Lib Dems in contempt, Downing Street, David Cameron and most of the Civil Service ditto. He has been open in recent days about what he thinks of the way Mr Clegg has used education policy for his own selfish ends. The Lib Dems think he, with Mr Gove's blessing, has leaked correspondence on schools funding. The Tories in turn say it is the Lib Dems who have run bleating to their friends in the left-wing press to moan about just how damned unfair it all is.
The upshot is that the papers are full of coverage that suggests a counter-offensive against Mr Gove is underway. The chief line is that the Treasury is scrutinising the free schools budget - "taking control" according to the Guardian (although it should be pointed out that this is not new). The suggestion is that senior Treasury officials are taking a special interest. And that Danny Alexander is pulling rank on Mr Gove. The words being used to describe the Department for Education include "meltdown" and "completely dysfunctional". Mr Gove is said not to be on speaking terms with his deputy David Laws. Mr Gove is said to be "out of control" and is behaving like "a vandal". Phew - the Lib Dems have been in action over the weekend: that's fighting talk.
How will Mr Gove reply, if at all? Mr Cameron has been robust in his support of the free schools programme in recent days. He won't countenance criticism. He is also privately happy to see someone on his side holding Lib Dem feet to the fire. But he is occasionally frustrated, I am told, by the exuberance Mr Gove shows in pursuing his political vendettas. He will have to calculate whether it is time to intervene and order an end to the feud in order to preserve the capacity of the Coalition to function, or whether there is political advantage for the Tories in allowing the occasional drive-by shooting of their deadly enemies. Tory MPs, as far as I can judge, love seeing the perfidy of the Lib Dems exposed, admire Mr Gove for it, and want more of that kind of thing. It may be that for Mr Cameron, Lib Dem bashing is the bread and circuses his troops need to keep them entertained.
PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
Dave's support for free movement on the Marr show yesterday has ruffled a few feathers. The PM wants freedom of movement to be about work not welfare - "It's to go and get a job, not to claim," Dave told the Beeb - and anything further is likely to go down about as well in Brussels as Graham Norton did in Denmark on Saturday. The Sun, however, wants more, calling on Dave to make free movement his red line come the renegotiation. Predictably enough, David Davis has leant his support to the effort. Their editorial is delivered in a similarly pugnacious tone: "until Cameron shows a willingness to have Britain not Brussels control this key issue", he's going to struggle. Meanwhile, James Kirkup reports from Llaneli, and finds a complex response to new arrivals. One successful businessman expanding his home explains why he's hiring Welsh builders: "I want someone reliable, so I get someone I know," says Mr Radek Tuczynsky.
MR READ GOES TO WESTMINSTEROne person who may well be wishing that Parliament were going on holiday sooner is Ian Read. The Pfizer boss is due in the Commons tomorrow and Wednesday to be questioned by MPs about Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca. Maths and science are the topics; Tuesday he'll be fending off wories that it's all about tax minimisation, while on Wednesday he'll be talking up his commitment to British pharmaceuticals. The Mail is still sounding the alarm. They've got a poll showing thatt two-thirds of voters want Dave to step in and block the takeover. Dave, meanwhile, was sounding a warning was in a bullish mood about the whole thing on Marr; coupled with his support for free movement this may be the most confidently pro-market we've seen Mr Cameron, which bodes well for the campaign to come. It all comes down to whether and when AZ's shareholders blink; having seen the share price fall back from its post-proposal peak, that may come sooner rather than later.
BRING BACK OUR GIRLS
James Kirkup dubbed the 2015 election "the selfie election" on Friday. On Sunday, Christiane Amanpour persuaded Dave to pose with the Bring Back Our Girls sign; that a campaign can spread from Lagos to London in a few weeks hightlights how volatile our politics has become. But it's Washington that may matter, and, quietly, Westminster may be heading for a deeper and more prolonged involvement in Nigeria than anyone expects. As David Aaronovitch notes, when it comes down to it "the West will be asked to do the heavy lifting". And don't expect many of the Tweeters to be supportive of that.
IT'S A LOTTERY
The Herald revealed last week that gamblers were more likely to vote Yes. They also give most of the donations for the Yes campaign. 79% of the campaign's donations have come from EuroMillions lottery winners Colin and Chris Weir, the Guardianreveals. Not willing to take any risks with the Union is Sam McCrory. The former commander of the Ulster Defence Association has urged the Scottish Orange Order to refrain from marching through Edinburgh in the days before the vote, believing it will enflame tensions, potentially handing victory to the Nationalists.
THE WORLD LABOUR LOST
John Smith died unexpectedly twenty years ago today. In the Guardian today, John McTernan imagines what kind of Prime Minister he would have made. It was a very different world back then; as McTernan notes, one of Smith's most-praised attributes was 'decency'. Now we salute 'mavericks'. How things have changed, indeed.
UNITE AGAINST...FARAGE?
Baroness Lawrence has distanced herself from the campaign group Unite Against Fascism, whose members are accused of a campaign of violence and intimidation against Nigel Farage and his party. The organisation - which is one the grubbier corners of left politics - claims the Labour peer as one of its honorary presidents and a regular supporter. The Baroness has denied it, however. James Kirkup and Claire Carter have the story.
THE TRAVAILS OF LA TRAVIATA
Sir Antonio Pappano isn't happy. The Royal Opera House's music director wants more bums on seats at opening night; political ones in particular. Politicians are "scared" to be seen at the opera because of its elitist reputation, he says. Could Sajid Javid be about to add Tosca or the Marriage of Figaro to his whistlestop tour of the arts?
TROUBLE AHEAD?
The Guardian carries a warning fromthe Local Government Association that local government now reached the limits of what can be cut without reducing frontline services. For all the political noise noise about "the cuts", they've remained in the abstract for most people. That may change if people start to notice potholes in the streets and 'Closed' signs at swimming pools.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:Con 31%, Lab 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%TWEETS & TWITS
@tracey_crouch: dear Hungary Denis Healey called. He wants his eyebrows back #eurovison2014
(Jeremy Browne's beard ended up with the last laugh, however.)
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
James Kirkup - Is immigration good for Britain?
Boris Johnson - In our own modest way, we're living in a Boko Haram world
Alan Cochrane - Could John Smith have envisaged where his 'parliament' would lead?
Telegraph View - The EU debate must be realistic and honest
Something from the Weekend
Charles Moore - Ed Miliband is peddling the politics of resentment
Simon Schama - A splendid mess of a union should not be torn asunder
Matthew D'Ancona - Rebirth of class war holds perils for the ToriesBest of the Rest
Brian Monteith - Cameron and Salmond better have resignation speeches ready
John McTernan - 20 years on from the death of Labour leader John Smith the party needs to rediscover his passion and humour
AGENDA
1130 LONDON: Hacking trial resumes.
Quite who started it is debatable. There is no doubt that the Education Secretary has for some time been pursuing a sustained guerrilla war against the Lib Dems in government, to the delight of his colleagues (and more often than not Number 10). This has become more apparent since the departure of Dominic Cummings. If it is true that by their special advisers ye shall know them, then Mr Cummings is proof that behind Mr Gove's charming exterior there is a vicious street fighter who understands that politics is combat that allows no quarter. Mr Cummings holds the Lib Dems in contempt, Downing Street, David Cameron and most of the Civil Service ditto. He has been open in recent days about what he thinks of the way Mr Clegg has used education policy for his own selfish ends. The Lib Dems think he, with Mr Gove's blessing, has leaked correspondence on schools funding. The Tories in turn say it is the Lib Dems who have run bleating to their friends in the left-wing press to moan about just how damned unfair it all is.
The upshot is that the papers are full of coverage that suggests a counter-offensive against Mr Gove is underway. The chief line is that the Treasury is scrutinising the free schools budget - "taking control" according to the Guardian (although it should be pointed out that this is not new). The suggestion is that senior Treasury officials are taking a special interest. And that Danny Alexander is pulling rank on Mr Gove. The words being used to describe the Department for Education include "meltdown" and "completely dysfunctional". Mr Gove is said not to be on speaking terms with his deputy David Laws. Mr Gove is said to be "out of control" and is behaving like "a vandal". Phew - the Lib Dems have been in action over the weekend: that's fighting talk.
How will Mr Gove reply, if at all? Mr Cameron has been robust in his support of the free schools programme in recent days. He won't countenance criticism. He is also privately happy to see someone on his side holding Lib Dem feet to the fire. But he is occasionally frustrated, I am told, by the exuberance Mr Gove shows in pursuing his political vendettas. He will have to calculate whether it is time to intervene and order an end to the feud in order to preserve the capacity of the Coalition to function, or whether there is political advantage for the Tories in allowing the occasional drive-by shooting of their deadly enemies. Tory MPs, as far as I can judge, love seeing the perfidy of the Lib Dems exposed, admire Mr Gove for it, and want more of that kind of thing. It may be that for Mr Cameron, Lib Dem bashing is the bread and circuses his troops need to keep them entertained.
PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
Dave's support for free movement on the Marr show yesterday has ruffled a few feathers. The PM wants freedom of movement to be about work not welfare - "It's to go and get a job, not to claim," Dave told the Beeb - and anything further is likely to go down about as well in Brussels as Graham Norton did in Denmark on Saturday. The Sun, however, wants more, calling on Dave to make free movement his red line come the renegotiation. Predictably enough, David Davis has leant his support to the effort. Their editorial is delivered in a similarly pugnacious tone: "until Cameron shows a willingness to have Britain not Brussels control this key issue", he's going to struggle. Meanwhile, James Kirkup reports from Llaneli, and finds a complex response to new arrivals. One successful businessman expanding his home explains why he's hiring Welsh builders: "I want someone reliable, so I get someone I know," says Mr Radek Tuczynsky.
ATTACK OF THE ZOMBIES
The increasingly tempestous nature of Coalition affairs means that there is an increasing dearth of Parliamentary business. Less than a month after coming back from their Easter holidays, MPs are to be given another sabbatical this Thursday; they won't be back until the Queen's speech on the 4th of June. Jon Ashworth's put-down of the "Zombie Parliament" has caught the eye of the Mail. It leads page 10 and the unexpected 19-day holiday gets a through going-over in their leader. Privately, though, Labour will be worried. Less time in the Commons takes the battle out of Europe and onto the television screens. Their leader doesn't do too well there.MR READ GOES TO WESTMINSTEROne person who may well be wishing that Parliament were going on holiday sooner is Ian Read. The Pfizer boss is due in the Commons tomorrow and Wednesday to be questioned by MPs about Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca. Maths and science are the topics; Tuesday he'll be fending off wories that it's all about tax minimisation, while on Wednesday he'll be talking up his commitment to British pharmaceuticals. The Mail is still sounding the alarm. They've got a poll showing thatt two-thirds of voters want Dave to step in and block the takeover. Dave, meanwhile, was sounding a warning was in a bullish mood about the whole thing on Marr; coupled with his support for free movement this may be the most confidently pro-market we've seen Mr Cameron, which bodes well for the campaign to come. It all comes down to whether and when AZ's shareholders blink; having seen the share price fall back from its post-proposal peak, that may come sooner rather than later.
BRING BACK OUR GIRLS
James Kirkup dubbed the 2015 election "the selfie election" on Friday. On Sunday, Christiane Amanpour persuaded Dave to pose with the Bring Back Our Girls sign; that a campaign can spread from Lagos to London in a few weeks hightlights how volatile our politics has become. But it's Washington that may matter, and, quietly, Westminster may be heading for a deeper and more prolonged involvement in Nigeria than anyone expects. As David Aaronovitch notes, when it comes down to it "the West will be asked to do the heavy lifting". And don't expect many of the Tweeters to be supportive of that.
CASSANDRA CRIDLAND
John Cridland of the CBI has attacked "headline-grabbing policies" for endangering the recovery. He's not pleased with Dave's immigration cap, Nigel's Brexitism, or Ed Miliband's love of intervention. He's also joined the growing ranks of those calling for a rise in interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating.IT'S A LOTTERY
The Herald revealed last week that gamblers were more likely to vote Yes. They also give most of the donations for the Yes campaign. 79% of the campaign's donations have come from EuroMillions lottery winners Colin and Chris Weir, the Guardianreveals. Not willing to take any risks with the Union is Sam McCrory. The former commander of the Ulster Defence Association has urged the Scottish Orange Order to refrain from marching through Edinburgh in the days before the vote, believing it will enflame tensions, potentially handing victory to the Nationalists.
THE WORLD LABOUR LOST
John Smith died unexpectedly twenty years ago today. In the Guardian today, John McTernan imagines what kind of Prime Minister he would have made. It was a very different world back then; as McTernan notes, one of Smith's most-praised attributes was 'decency'. Now we salute 'mavericks'. How things have changed, indeed.
UNITE AGAINST...FARAGE?
Baroness Lawrence has distanced herself from the campaign group Unite Against Fascism, whose members are accused of a campaign of violence and intimidation against Nigel Farage and his party. The organisation - which is one the grubbier corners of left politics - claims the Labour peer as one of its honorary presidents and a regular supporter. The Baroness has denied it, however. James Kirkup and Claire Carter have the story.
THE TRAVAILS OF LA TRAVIATA
Sir Antonio Pappano isn't happy. The Royal Opera House's music director wants more bums on seats at opening night; political ones in particular. Politicians are "scared" to be seen at the opera because of its elitist reputation, he says. Could Sajid Javid be about to add Tosca or the Marriage of Figaro to his whistlestop tour of the arts?
TROUBLE AHEAD?
The Guardian carries a warning fromthe Local Government Association that local government now reached the limits of what can be cut without reducing frontline services. For all the political noise noise about "the cuts", they've remained in the abstract for most people. That may change if people start to notice potholes in the streets and 'Closed' signs at swimming pools.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow Stephen on Twitter.
DAILY POLL
Latest YouGov poll:Con 31%, Lab 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%TWEETS & TWITS
@tracey_crouch: dear Hungary Denis Healey called. He wants his eyebrows back #eurovison2014
(Jeremy Browne's beard ended up with the last laugh, however.)
BEST COMMENT
In the Telegraph
James Kirkup - Is immigration good for Britain?
Boris Johnson - In our own modest way, we're living in a Boko Haram world
Alan Cochrane - Could John Smith have envisaged where his 'parliament' would lead?
Telegraph View - The EU debate must be realistic and honest
Something from the Weekend
Charles Moore - Ed Miliband is peddling the politics of resentment
Simon Schama - A splendid mess of a union should not be torn asunder
Matthew D'Ancona - Rebirth of class war holds perils for the ToriesBest of the Rest
Brian Monteith - Cameron and Salmond better have resignation speeches ready
John McTernan - 20 years on from the death of Labour leader John Smith the party needs to rediscover his passion and humour
AGENDA
1130 LONDON: Hacking trial resumes.
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