Osborne confounds Balls..

Good morning. As this lands in your inbox the 8am Cabinet is being briefed by George Osborne on the contents of his Autumn Statement. The indications are there won't be any big giveaways, though that does not mean there won't be show-stoppers or at least flourishes to give us something to write about later. Much of it though appears to have been trailed, from extra spending cuts for non ring-fenced apartments to scrapping NI for under-21 employees. Today there are reports of an increase in the pension age to 70; an extra £1 billion in spending cuts for each of the next three years; and the end of tax discs displayed on car windscreens. 

The desired narrative seems to be straightforward: a surging economy confounds Ed Balls, vindicates the Chancellor and puts the Tories on course for victory in 2015. Mr Osborne will temper that by striking notes of caution about the risks still present to the economy and more importantly the unfinished business of that pesky, three-figure deficit. The FT leads with talk of a surplus, but not until 2018. If Tory MPs tempted to start spending the proceeds of growth need persuading, they should look at the graph which shows the UK deep in the red for years to come. Look at it this way: by the time the public finances get back to black, Dave will have been party leader for 13 years. Tory MPs will also contemplate the contrast between their economic optimism and political pessimism: everything's coming up roses, except their prospects.

Mr Osborne will be garlanded with praise for having comprehensively stuffed Ed Balls, and - even more - for holding his nerve when others might have crumbled. But his colleagues are not ready to celebrate him as a political strategist. Why? Because they worry that he devotes too much time to tactics that make the Tories look as if they are dancing to Ed Miliband's tune. In that sense, the Autumn Statement is the moment George Osborne, having navigated the economy back to safety, can turn his attention to his next big challenge: securing the outright victory that eluded him last time. There is no time to be wasted on celebrations. If you thought fixing the economy was difficult, try winning power as a Conservative in 2015. You can follow developments throughout the day on our live blog.

HOW DO LABOUR RESPOND?

And here's how Labour is trying to change the subject. Labour has launched a "cost of living bombshell" poster, evoking Tory "Labour tax bombshell" posters of elections past; while this will resonate with some of the electorate, the risk is that the timing rather has the whiff of putting up the white flag on the economy. And where this leaves Ed Balls is a moot question: by tying himself so explicitely to the "too far, too fast" narrative, Mr Balls hasn't left himself too much room for manoeuvre.

In the papers, Peter Oborne says that, if the good news keeps coming, "Conservatives will have a terrific story of how they took over the management of the economy at a moment of dark national emergency, made unpopular decisions in the teeth of defiance from Labour, then stuck to their course in the face of media scepticism and hostility." Tim Montgomerie writes that "Plan A has worked, Mr Miliband, and how, by the way, is your comrade Monsieur Hollande doing?" but calls for the Chancellor to recapture the Coalition's "early vision and ambition". Chris Giles explains why "The young get the worst of Britain’s cost of living squeeze". Martin Kettle thinks the autumn statement is "a wholly political confection": 1% about the economy and 99% about election politics. Dan Hodges calls on the Chancellor to keep things simple today - and say "I told you my plan would work. It has. I’m sticking with it". Tim Wigmoreassesses Mr Osborne's record on the debt and deficit compared to the targets he set out in his "unavoidable budget" three years ago.

EXPECT FIREWORKS

Theresa May is taking on the EU over immigration today. She wants to be able to cap the number of EU migrants coming here, and good luck to her. To judge by what I was told last night though, she has problems closer to home. Apparently Sir George Young is likely to announce today at business questions that the Immigration Bill, which we were expecting next week, has been put back. Why? The version I've heard is that it has been pulled because Government managers have spotted an imminent car crash: an amendment tabled by Tory MP Nigel Mills, which would require that restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarians be kept in place for a further five years, has secured a heap of backbench support - more than 60 Tory names are on it, I'm told. Its supporters believe they are on course to secure support from more than 80 potential rebels, raising the prospect of yet another mass Euro rebellion for David Cameron. So the Government has put the whole thing back while it considers what to do. But I gather the rebels are planning to try to re-introduce the amendment as a piece of backbench business in the week before Christmas (think prison votes). The difficulty is obvious: if adopted, the amendment would put the British government in breach of EU law, something no Prime Minister can credibly contemplate, or so the argument goes. The rebels hope however that Mr Cameron might be tempted to be sympathetic: he can note the result, say Parliament has spoken, and use it to strengthen his negotiating hand in Brussels, Berlin and Paris. Expect fireworks.

MITCHELL SUED BY POLICE

Andrew Mitchell is being sued by Pc Toby Rowland, the police officer he has accused of lying over Plebgate. Mr Rowland said he was prepared to go to court and swear on oath that Mr Mitchell used the word "pleb" during the argument last year. The news will dampen the calls among David Davis and co to give Mr Mitchell his job back. Mr Mitchell now faces two legal actions to defend his honour in which he will be expected to prove his case. His friends fear that he has bitten off more than he can chew.

GOVE v CLEGG

Michael Gove's team isn't best pleased with Nick Clegg. The announcement of free school meals has resulted in the Government raiding the Department for Education’s school building budget for £80 million - apparently, the £600 million first earmarked didn't include the cost of redeveloping school kitchens. The Times reports Department for Education sources saying that the money "does not exist" and the issue is "unresolved".

BEWARE THE TIGER

David Cameron would like to think his visit to China was a success, even if no one is kidding themselves that the Chinese would delay an event like the Autumn Statement to accomodate a political visit to Britain. But he returns to a warning from the Mail to beware the Tiger: "yes, we want a flourishing trade relationship. Yes, we believe in realpolitik. But it would be a huge mistake to ignore the threats posed by an increasingly rapacious China... Merely diverting the public’s attention from those potent threats, with headline-catching briefings about domestic matters, cannot be the right approach."

WOODCOCK ADMITS TO SUFFERING DEPRESSION

John Woodcock has said that he is suffering from depression and is seeking help. The Labour MP wrote "I am very much hoping that my constituents and fellow parliamentarians won't notice much of a difference from me popping pills. I have mostly managed to avoid moping about like Eeyore up until now, and am assured that the antidepressants I am taking will not induce any inappropriate 'you're my best mate' euphoria in the House of Commons chamber."

WHERE'S GORDON BROWN?

Sam Coates devotes two pages to asking just what's happened to the former PM - and current MP, though he's made only six Commons speeches since leaving Downing Street - who describes himself as an "ex-politician". Gordon Brown seems devoted to international projects, especially on education, and is said to barely talk to either of the two Eds. Dinner with Mr Brown went for $350 at a charity auction last month. When asked for help with Sam's article, Mr Brown's office said: "This is not a true article on ‘the works and life of Gordon Brown’ based on conversation with ‘friends and associates’. It is very obviously another smear built on false foundations."

FALSE ADDRESSES IN FALKIRK

Even more confusing than the case of Mr Brown is that of Falkirk. The story gets even murkier with the revelations in the Times that at least two people with false addresses and no known link to their supposed homes were enrolled by Labour before the voting in the contest to become candidate in the seat. Expect to hear plenty more questions about Ed Miliband's failure to reopen the investigation.

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

Politics isn't always a nasty business:

@JWoodcockMP: Turning in now. Thanks so much for the messages - haven't been able to reply to them yet but have read them all (I think!) You're so kind.

BEST COMMENT

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Tim Montgomerie in The Times - Britain no longer needs to envy Germany

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John Woodcock in The Guardian - I am depressed and I have decided to get help

THE AGENDA 

9am Nick Clegg's call-in radio show.

10.25am Leading judges at the Court Martial Appeal Court in London announce their decision on whether the names of five Royal Marines should be made public following a high-profile trial over the killing of an injured insurgent in Afghanistan.

11.15am George Osborne delivers the Autumn Statement, House of Commons.

12pm Bank of England decision on interest rates and quantitative easing programme.

12.30pm OBR's Economic and fiscal outlook: publication then press conference. One Great George Street. 

Osborne Cameron split..

Good morning. Team Dave won't be thrilled by the way talk of a split between the Prime Minister and George Osborne has crept into the news. It's only p16 of The Times, and hinted elsewhere, but that will be enough to worry both sides. Certainly it was enough for Mr Cameron to lavish praise on their relationship when he spoke in China yesterday. One of the minor miracles of the Tory effort under his leadership has been his seamless relationship with the Chancellor. Attempts to suggest otherwise have foundered, and it has never become a source of speculation. Commentators have on occasion raised the prospect. Fraser Nelson sketched out the divide between them a few weeks ago, but the idea has never caught fire as a news story.

Yesterday Mr Cameron was asked about reports that he and Mr Osborne disagreed about the pace of tax cuts and his emphasis on delivering a married couples' tax allowance. "I have a very, very strong relationship with the Chancellor," he said. "We work together hand in glove. I just simply don't understand how government could have functioned when the relationship between Blair and Brown got as bad as it did. It's only when you are Prime Minister that you see how impossible it must have been. It's an extremely good relationship, we work very, very closely together. It's one of the strengths of the government. Our relationship is as good as it's ever been." Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne have made it their priority to avoid the Blair/Brown warfare. That bit however is relatively easy, as Mr Osborne does not nurture Mr Brown's near pathological desire for the top job. But it is true that they do not always agree on policy issues: the Chancellor for example thinks the married couples' tax allowance is a turkey of an idea, both politically and economically. Mr Cameron is also said to be more eager to secure tax cuts than his Chancellor, a suggestion that doesn't quite stack up given what I know of how keen Mr Osborne is offer giveaways. It is true though that it is Mr Cameron who has stood firm against wealth taxes: he vetoed a Lib Dem mansion tax after the Chancellor offered to trade it for scrapping the 50p rate outright. This morning's news that Mr Osborne is to freeze business rates suggests he too is looking for ways to cut the tax burden. In fact, the nature of the dispute is neither here nor there. What matters politically is that their disagreement, however collegiate, is being talked about by those in their circles, and that is seeping out. In my column this week I discussed how the Tories are fretful and pessimistic about the future. That mood of desperation is spreading. It will trouble Tory high command to see even a vague hint that it has reached the very top.

READ MY LIPS: NO NEW TAX CUTS 

The slow leaking of the Autumn Statement continues. But there isn't going to be any flagship tax cut, at least for the middle-classes: the PM has ruled out any help for them until the end of the decade. Mr Cameron said that the tax cuts beloved of Tories such as the Free Enterprise Groupwould have to wait until the deficit was "dealt with" and public finances were in surplus. Dave explained that while he was "a low-tax Tory", he was "also a fiscal conservative. I believe the first duty of government is to safeguard our economy, and the economy isn’t safeguarded properly until you deal with your deficit." Failing tax cuts, Allister Heath says that "Osborne should announce a moratorium on any further tax hikes until the election. The Tories have spent too long apologising; they must now seize the moral high ground on tax and spending." 

The tax break for married couples will be confirmed by the Chancellor tomorrow, even if it's much less than many Conservatives would like.The Chancellor also seems to have been paying some attention to our campaign on business rates (though less than we would like - with money still so tight, there's a bit of a theme here), and will announce a cap on the increase in business rates to 2pc next year, instead of being linked to inflation, at a cost of about £300 million. Mr Osborne will also announce the extension of a scheme that gives small firms relief from rates liability. Infrastructure spending will also be prioritised - the Government will unveil its infrastructure spending plan until 2030, which will include an extra £66 billion to take total spending to £375 billion on 646 projects. Spending will be boosted by the Government selling its 40pc stake in Eurostar. Employers will no longer have to pay National Insurance for workers under 21 as part of plans to tackle youth unemployment. Million Jobs director Lottie Dexter described herself as "over the moon" at the news. And - perhaps most popular of all - the Government will stop incentivising onshore windfarms, and will give more to offshore wind power. Danny Alexander defended the shift as "a rebalancing".

BETTER APART FROM ALISTAIR?

Few doubted the wisdom of Alistair Darling leading the "Better Together" campaign. But now there are the first signs of dissent: senior Tories have labelled Mr Darling "comatose", according to the FT, amid concerns that he's not doing enough to challenge Alex Salmond. A Downing Street source described Mr Darling as a "dreary figurehead" for the campaign. Of course, there is no shortage of Conservative MPs who won't mind, and would rather like Scotland to become independent. But No 10 denies the reports, describing them as "completely untrue.....100% not the case."

UKIP RISING - BUT AT WHOSE EXPENSE?

The latest constituency polls from Ukip donor Alan Bown are released today. They show Ukip virtually tied with the Conservatives in two Tory target seats - Ukip is on 22pc in Great Grimbsy and the Conservatives on 20pc; in Dudley North Ukip is on 23pc and the Tories 25pc. The result is that Labour, which narrowly clinged onto the seats in 2010, has a lead of at least 18 pc in both seats. The message seems simple - that Ukip's surge is splitting the Right and helping Labour. But actually that seems a tad simplistic: 70 pc of Ukip voters say they did not vote Conservative in 2010. Mr Bown said: "Whatever the Conservative Party may think about these seats being high up on their target list, their hopes of winning these seats in 2015 look like little better than a pipe-dream, based on this polling."

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED IN CHINA?

Things have been pretty quiet as Dave wraps up his visit to China. Doubtless he's not too chuffed by The Global Times' editorial: "The Cameron administration should acknowledge that the UK is not a big power in the eyes of the Chinese... It is just an old European country apt for travel and study." But the Prime Minister isn't letting the press ruin his time: he insists that the trip has "delivered almost £6 billion worth of deals" which could result in 1500 new jobs in Britain. Mr Cameron has also asked the Chinese premier Li Keqiang to agree to a formal dialogue on cyber-security, which he described as an "issue of mutual concern". Expect further dealings with China, despite the criticism this invites, to be a feature of the rest of this Government.

BORIS DEFENDS HIMSELF - BADLY

A week after Boris's inequality speech, and it's still all over the papers. He hardly helped himself by fluffing an IQ test on his Ask Boris radio show, admittedly. Meanwhile, Tristram Hunt accused Mr Johnson of an "unpleasant whiff of eugenics" in the Commons; on the day of the PISA results, Labour would have been rather grateful for Boris's comments.Daniel Finkelstein says that Boris didn't express himself perfectly, but he "was quite right that greed can be a spur to useful activity. Yet that is not a feature of all economic systems, it is a particular advantage of capitalism." John Kay writes that when the Mayor says, "somewhat optimistically, that "this time, the Gordon Gekkos of the world are conspicuous not for their greed as for what they give and do for the rest of the population", he correctly identifies the moral issue at the heart of London’s role as a financial centre." The reaction suggests that Boris's enemies will seize any opportunity to knock him off his stride: it goes with the territory of being the man who would be King.

SILENCING HATE SPEECH

The Government will introduce new civil powers, based partly on ASBOs, to silence hate speech. The law will tighten definitions of extremism, including on the internet, and the Mail reports it could be used "to bar people from preaching messages of terror and hate, associating with named individuals thought vulnerable to radicalisation, and from entering specific venues, such as mosques or community halls."

ADONIS' CHINA WARNING

Andrew Adonis has warned that Chinese investment in HS2 may pose dangers. Lord Adonis said that Britain must treat Chinese interest "very cautiously given their safety record." He also revealed  that during a visit to China in 2009 officials had expressed a similar interest in helping to build HS2, but that he had declined to make any agreement.

TORY WOMEN NOT WINNING

Dave's "women problem" is nothing new. But it might be even worse than feared. So far, three of the 49 Tory women elected in 2010 have quit or announced that they'll stand down in 2015, and up to another six could follow them. And the picture isn't any better looking to the future: five safe seats that have recently selected candidates all plumped for men. Three constituencies with sitting Tory MPs will nominate their candidates before the end of the week - Wealden chooses on Thursday and Northampton South and South East Cambridge choose on Saturday. One disgruntled MP tells The Times: "There’s a lot of patronage in politics... Why is a guy like George Eustice a minister? Because he was a special adviser to Cameron."

TWITTER NOT ABOVE THE LAW

Dominic Grieve is attempting to bring Twitter and Facebook under control by the law: social media users will be warned about the dangers of prejudicing high profile cases, the Attorney General has said. Mr Grieve will send out court advisory notes which were in the past reserved for the mainstream media in an attempt to try and bring contempt laws up to date with the social media age.

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

Chris Heaton-Harris is getting ready for Panto season:

@chhcalling: Just been to "Snow White" panto auditions. My best friends are playing Doc, Sleepy, Grumpy, Bashful, Sneezy and Dopey. This makes me Happy.

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Mary Riddell - Labour needs more than empathy and catchy pledges to win power

Alex Morton - Why we need a freeze on business rates

Allister Heath - George Osborne must never forget he is the guardian of our taxes, not their rightful owner

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Alice Thomson in The Times - The increasingly confident, powerful Mr Clegg

Daniel Finkelstein in The Times - Capitalism turns greed into prosperity

John Kay in The FT - London’s mayor is half right on envy, greed and inequality

Julian Huppert in The Guardian - We should look at the content of the Snowden files – not the messenger

THE AGENDA 

David Cameron in China.

9.30am  Commons Justice Committee hearing on crime reduction policies with Justice Secretary Chris Grayling. Grimond Room, Portcullis House.

10.30am Lords Constitution Committee takes evidence on implications of coalition government. Committee Room 1, House of Lords.

12pm DPMQs: Nick Clegg vs Harriet Harman.

5.50pm Transport minister Robert Goodwill before House of Commons Transport Committee. Grimond Room, Portcullis House.

China..

Good morning. David Cameron arrived in China last night for his first visit in three years. It was put off following the Dalai Lama controversy, but the governments have reached an accommodation (they've agree not to talk about it). George Osborne's trip a few months ago paved the way, and now it's down to business. Mr Cameron has taken a large delegation of business leaders - the largest ever we are told - and posed for a team photograph with them on the steps of his plane. The make-up of the delegation has prompted talk of cronyism because it includes his step-father-in-law Viscount Astor, his chum Lord Chadlington and his former adviser Rohan Silva.

There's also talk of kowtowing, because Mr Cameron has outdone itself in lavishing praise on China and the importance of the trade relationship. In an article for a Chinese magazine he has hammered home his message that Britain is more open to Chinese investment than any other country. In return he's had a meeting with Li Keqiang, the new premier, and been welcomed with a bamboo fungus banquet. There's no doubt that the opportunities available to Britain and to China from greater trade are striking. It's also true that for all the talk we don't do that well there. Ask any British entrepreneur who has tried and they will tell you that China remains a hard place to do business. Its commercial ruthlessness is focused on obtaining every advantage from us it can, often by nefarious means, but it gives nothing away. Yet as today's Telegraph leader points out "If the country truly is changing, becoming more open and less the personal property of the Communist party, it makes sense for Britain to exploit this potentially golden opportunity". The Mail is less impressed. Under its headline "Kowtowing to China", it asks "…apart from China's appalling human rights record, its business methods include industrial espionage, routine violation of patents and draconian curbs on foreign companies...After throwing our nuclear industry on Beijing's mercy aren't we already in danger of adopting too humble and unquestioning an approach?" An underlying impression on the back of the Hinckley Point nuclear plant deal and other Chinese investments in the UK is that China's greatest usefulness is as a source of needed infrastructure investment. We want them to open up to British businesses, but we want their cash even more. After all, the Autumn Statement was put back a day to Thursday to accommodate Chinese diaries.

NO RETURN TO BOOM AND BUST

With only three days until the Autumn Statement, the papers are being dripfed nuggets - just like in Damian McBride's day, you could even say. An extra £250 million is being handed to the British Investment Bank to help small firms, and £1 billion could be raised through a crackdown on tax avoidance. But, as a result of giveaways by both Coalition parties over conference season (free school meals, freezing fuel duty and marriage tax breaks), an "emergency round" of £2 billion in spending cuts is being planned.

The central message that George Osborne is conveying is the "no return to boom and bust" line that was the centrepiece of his Marr interview yesterday. Mr Osborne says that fundamental changes are still needed to give Britain an "affordable state" and make the public finances "sustainable". The FT reports that "officials have demonstrated that although the rise in typical living standards has fallen behind the growth of gross domestic product, the amount companies are paying their employees has kept pace". Perhaps it's all rather wonkish, but as it counters Labour's line about a rising tide only lifting yachts, it's a line that we can expect to hear plenty more of. While there is certainly truth in the notion that Labour is driving aspects of Government policy - like on fuel bills, payday loans and cigarette packaging - there is method in the Tory approach. "We will take the steak and leave the gristle", as one insider tellsTrevor Kavanagh. And, for all the tactical difficulties, the big picture is looking increasingly good. Growth is wooing foreign investors and is the envy of the rest of the eurozone. The FT says that: "Some economists believe the UK will be the world’s fastest growing developed economy over the next five years. This is a tempting prospect for foreign corporates and investors, but they are weighing up potential opportunities against the political uncertainty of an EU referendum, as the coalition government staggers from one populist measure to another."

One irony of it all is that the tax-cutting Right of the Conservatives are now telling "the Chancellor to return to his theme of sharing the proceeds of growth", in the words of Dr Liam Fox. Mr Fox writes in The Times that "This time, however, the sharing should be between deficit reduction and tax reduction."

ENERGY WARS CONTINUE

More than two months after Labour's conference and the battle over energy prices continues. £50 will be shaved off green levies and moved to general taxation; in response, EDF  has pledged to freeze its energy prices until the end of next year. But it's not enough for Ed Miliband, who will accuse the Government of "smoke and mirrors" on energy prices and a "cosy deal" with firms in a speech in Milton Keynes today. Mr Miliband will also attack the new ties with China: "David Cameron needs to understand a simple truth: we’re not going to win a race with China by winning a race to the bottom, by competing on low pay and low skills. And, if we try, it will be the people of Britain who lose."     

OSBORNE'S SECRET WEAPON

Just in time for the Autumn Statement, George Osborne has a new friend - and the kids have called her Lola. The Chancellor tweeted: "Some early issues with toilet training ... but we don't care. We love her."

FALKIRK WITNESS 'FORGOT' HE'D SIGNED UP FAMILY

Michael Kane, a key witness in the Falkirk vote-rigging inquiry, "forgot" to tell his family that he paid for them to join the Labour party, according to a sworn statement obtained by Unite solicitors. Mr Kane said: "I accept that I have contributed to the ongoing situation by my forgetting to tell my family that I had agreed to their joining the Labour Party."

SIR GEORGE RETIRING

A Westminster institution is retiring. Sir George Young, an MP since 1974 and the current Government chief whip, wants to "declare on 41 not out". They'll be no shortage of candidates who want to replace him: Sir George's majority in North West Hampshire is a bullet-proof 19,000.

EXPENSES QUESTIONS FOR LANSLEY

The drip-drip of unwelcome expenses stories continues: the latest is that Andrew Lansley claimed £6000 in expenses for nights in London hotels since April 2012 despite owning a flat just a mile from Parliament. Mr Lansley's spokesman said that a family member is currently staying in his London flat, although it's thoughts to have more than one bedroom.

YEO NOT RESELECTED

In case you missed it, Tim Yeo has not been reselected by the South Suffolk Conservative Association, though in theory he could yet apply to be the new candidate when the new selection process gets underway. Mr Yeo's fate is being presented by Labour as a further nail in the coffin for "vote blue, go green". The former environment minister has been the MP for South Suffolk since 1983 and has a majority of 9,000.   

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

A master of the hashtag:

@David_Cameron: Witnessing Jaguar Land Rover signing a £4.5billion deal to sell cars in China. #UKinChina #GlobalRace

BEST COMMENT

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Boris Johnson - Is it beyond the wit of tech wizards to stop phone theft?

Iain Martin - This is the Common Market Europe needs

Chris Terrill - Marine A: criminal or casualty?

Telegraph View - Energy policies just rob Peter to pay Paul

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David Cameron in The Guardian - My visit can begin a relationship to benefit China, Britain and the world
Liam Fox in The Times - As mortgage rates rise, Tories must cut taxes

Trevor Kavanagh in The Sun - Let’s see you come up with your own ideas now, George

Dominic Lawson in The Daily Mail - Could this be the moment the tide of history turned against the EU?

THE AGENDA 

Prime Minister David Cameron is in China

1605 LONDON: Commons Transport Committee takes evidence on cycling safety. Witnesses include David Davies, executive director of PACTS, Val Shawcross, chairwoman of the London Assembly transport committee, Ashok Sinha, chief executive of London Cycling Campaign, Katja Leyendecker, of Newcycling (Newcastle Cycling Campaign), Jack Semple, director of policy for the Road Haulage Association, and Andrew Gilligan, Mayor of London's cycling commissioner. Grimond Room, Portcullis House

2235: Ken Clarke is on ITV's The Agenda.

Thank goodness for Boris..

Good morning. Thank goodness for Boris, who has spoken in praise of inequality. Hizzoner gave the third Margaret Thatcher lecture at the CPS yesterday, and didn't disappoint. Greed is good, some people are too stupid to get on, and - notably - bring back grammars were among the livelier messages packed into his address. The Mail liked his speech so much that they've run a panel of the best extracts. Once again Boris demonstrates his knack for the arresting phrase, and for confronting his party with the kind of plain truths that too many politicians avoid expressing. His line about a measure of inequality being necessary to encourage the "spirit of envy" which, like greed, "is a valuable spur to economic activity", is particularly telling: it is hard to imagine Dave saying the same.

As ever, Boris uses the freedom (and lack of national responsibility) that comes with his job to say more than might be deemed politically prudent. His praise of wealth is familiar, as is his message on immigration. What will attract attention instead is the way he has urged his party to back a return to grammar schools. His friend Michael Gove is of course the minister who must defend the Tory policy of opposing new grammar schools (and preventing the expansion of existing ones if the Sevenoaks case is anything to go by). Boris claims that when he was shadow higher education spokesman he attended a meeting of the shadow education team which agreed it would be "political madness" to bring back grammars "while I happened to know that most of the people in that room were about to make use, a parents, of some of the most viciously selective schools in the country". Westminster will have fun working out who has has in mind (his boss was David Willetts) and assessing whether sticking it to colleagues is a good way to advance his cause. Mr Johnson nurtures ambitions which he knows are undermined the better David Cameron does. He needs the PM to fail in 2015 and leave the stage if he is to seek leadership. Everything Boris says and does must be seen in that light. At a time when authenticity and voice are the issues that preoccupy the Tories, his intervention reminds his party that he is still here.  

A TENTATIVE THUMBS UP FOR DAVE

There's plenty of reaction to yesterday's immigration announcement in the papers today. Dave will be pleased with the sympathetic treatment in the Mail: the line "Germany and France join PM in call for restrictions" makes Mr Cameron seem like he's in charge; The Sun calls it a "Berlin Wall for migrants". We welcome the move but aren't exactly impressed by the timing: "Mr Cameron says his aim is to issue "a very clear signal" that the UK is not a soft touch. It is one that should have been sent out a long time ago." The FT asks whether the PM has "an ulterior purpose – for example claiming that it was a "monumental mistake" not to impose transitional immigration controls when the likes of Poland and Hungary joined the EU. Yet the prime minister fails to produce any data to corroborate this." It reaffirms its view that "the principle that labour should stay free within the EU is right and should be upheld." Paul Collier writes that "Britain’s firms have become addicted to hiring motivated migrants rather than solving the greater challenge of turning our own young people into productive workers." David Aaronovitch doubts whether the steps will make Dave's life much easier, quoting Nigel Farage's comments yesterday that "Every time Cameron shoots our fox we’re up in the opinion polls." 

The move has gone done well with the Conservatives, but there remains a feeling that it does not go nearly far enough: 46 Tory MPs have signed a Commons motion calling for restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian workers to stay in place after January 1.

TACHE ENVY

Michael Fabricant's 'tache was quite a sight during PMQs yesterday. The poor PM would have been jealous; Dave's admitted that such a 'tache is "not something I'm fully capable of." Good thing that Movember is almost over.

CUTTING THE "CRAP"

How to cut the green "crap"? It's tricky with the Lib Dems about and insisting on keeping the scheme giving free insulation to low-income homes, despite the PM's apparent wishes to ditch it. The most likely option, according to James Landale, is to fund the warm homes discount out of general tax rather than customers' energy bills, and implement the Energy Companies Obligation scheme over four years rather than two.

KO FOR FAKIRK WHISTLEBLOWER

So it doesn't pay to be a snitch. That's the picture to emerge from Falkirk, where Linda Gow - the woman who raised the issue of vote-rigging - has been knocked out of the fight to be Labour's candidate. Note the comment from Mrs Gow's friend to The Times: "What does this say about the Labour Party’s attitude to whistleblowers?"

CARNEY CAN'T STOP HELP TO BUY

It's often been said by ministers that Mark Carney can intervene to stop the Help to Buy scheme from overinflating the housing market, but the Governor of the Bank of England says that he's got "no power" to stop it and "only has the authority to make recommendations" to the Treasury". But there's better news for Help to Buy with the FT reporting that it is good news for housebuilding: Ibstock Brick, the UK’s largest brick manufacturer, plans to keep all 20 of its plants open throughout winter for the first time since 2007.

ANOTHER BLOW FOR MITCHELL

As if Andrew Mitchell hasn't suffered enough over Plebgate already. The Court of Appeal yesterday rejected Mr Mitchell's claims to recover the costs in his case - some £506,000 – because the proper paperwork had not been filed on time. But the good news for Mr Mitchell is he used a "no win, no fee" arrangement with his lawyers, so it won't be him footing the bill.

NO MORE CIGARATTE BRANDING

Is this a U-turn? After Dave's rejection of the idea in July, it turns out thatcigarettes will be sold in plain packaging before the next election after all, with the Government set to announce plans within the next few days; a review should be published by March, though Labour say that even that's too slow. Seen through the prism of the next election, that will take the sting out of Labour's attacks on the Conservatives' perceived links with tobacco companies.

TRISTRAM'S BEAN-COUNTING

The Shadow Education Secretary has certainly got his eye on the ball:Tristram Hunt has twice claimed less than 10p to cover the cost of staples,The Times Diary reports. And staples seem ripe for a new expenses scandal: an Ipsa spokesman said that "We don’t count them out and back in again."

ANOTHER REFERENDUM?

If Scotland votes "Yes" next September, it won't be a clean break with the union. MSPs were told that a second referendum for England, Wales and Northern Ireland would have to be staged if an independent Scotland wanted to share the pound. But would the rest of the UK want to become liable to bail out an independent Scotland's banks?

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter

TWEETS AND TWITS

Michael Fabricant basks in the 'tache glory:

@Mike_Fabricant: Someone, very naughty, took this pic of me in the Chamber just b4 #PMQs yesterday while I was hiding!

BEST COMMENT

In the Telegraph  

Paul Collier - Immigration: people move freely, but who pays?

Peter Oborne - Iran nuclear deal: The friends of Israel who are refusing to face facts

Sue Cameron - A Yes vote offers some wonderful 'what ifs’
Telegraph View - Cameron’s signal should have been sent long ago

Best of the rest 

Rafael Behr in The New Statesman - You don't have to be a Tory to believe the Conservative Party deserves better than Cameron 
David Aaronovitch in The Times - Don’t summon up the immigration monster

Alex Brummer in the Daily Mail - In the Royal Mail sell-off scandal, taxpayers have been robbed by the very piranhas who caused the crash - on the sanctimonious Dr Cable's watch

Alan Travis in The Guardian - David Cameron's migration plans are impractical, inequitable or illegal

THE AGENDA

William Hague oral statement to MPs on campaign against sexual violence in conflict zones.

9am Nick Clegg's Call Clegg phone-in on LBC.

9.30am Migration Statistics Quarterly Report and final long-term international migration figures for the calendar year 2012 will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

10.15am Launch of Fresh Start Project EU Negotiating Mandate. Conservative MPs Andrea Leadsom, Chris Heaton-Harris and Tim Loughton MP briefing to mark the publication of the Fresh Start Project's "EU Negotiating Mandate". Committee Room 17, House of Commons.

10.30am Bank of England's, semi-annual, Financial Stability Report released. News conference with Governor Carney.

5.30am Mayor of London Boris Johnson to join a celebration to mark Chanukah, the Jewish festival of lights. Trafalgar Square, London.