MPs buoyant..

Good morning. It feels rather like the beginning of the school holidays today, as the House rises. In these stuffy conditions we all need a break. Dave is no different, which must explain his helicopter ride yesterday

Still, Mr Cameron might feel he deserved it. After being on the backfoot since last year's budget, the Conservative parliamentary party head off for summer in relatively buoyant mood: look at how well-received Dave's performance was in yesterday's PMQs. For those in marginal seats, suddenly an election seems a little less worrying.

Yet there are still some barnacles to clear off the boat. The scrapping of a minimum alcohol plan has led to the resignation of a group of government advisers and had Sarah Wollaston unhappy yesterday. Another issue on which Dr Wollaston has expressed her concerns, the postponement of introducing plain packaging on cigarettes, continues to lurk uncomfortably in the background, with Mr Cameron unable to say at PMQs whether he discussed it with Lynton Crosby.

There is also the matter of a reshuffle to consider. The Coalition have avoided the New Labour disease of constantly changing ministers before they had time to master their briefs, but Dave has made little headway on his target that one-third of ministers should be women by the time of the next election. Just 23 out of 121 government ministers are currently women, as The Times (£) reports, although, in Dave's defence, female Lib Dems are a rare breed. We don't know what Dave has in mind, but betting must be that, when it does happen, the reshuffle will be designed to be low-key. As Peter Oborne writes, Mr Cameron has recorded a quietly formidable set of successes during his three years in office, and "Coalition ministers are entitled to set off on holiday with a feeling of richly deserved pride and satisfaction."
FAREWELL, GENERAL RICHARDS - BUT WHERE'S PHILIP HAMMOND?

The outgoing head of the armed forces, General Sir David Richards, has warned that Britain has to be prepared to “go to war” if it wishes to restrain the Syrian regime.Sir Richards has also warned that the Government has to clarify its "political objectives" in Syria before a coherent plan for dealing with the Assad regime can be recommended. But General Richards perhaps didn't receive the send-off he envisaged: Defence Secretary Philip Hammond was notably absent, as was his predecessor Dr Liam Fox. Only one former Defenece Secretary, Des Browne, attended the farewell drinks.  

MCCLUSKEY WARNS LABOUR

Labour could be bankrupted unless they do more to appeal to trade unions. That's the verdict of Len McCluskey, who warns Ed Miliband in The Times (£) that increasing the minimum wage and abandoning austerity is the way that Mr Miliband can appeal to trade unionists. In a funny way, Mr McCluskey rather has a point: unless Mr Miliband can find alternative ways to attract new funding for Labour, he will remain over-reliant on the trade unions for cash - and vulnerable to the charge that they are influencing policy.

MILLER WADES IN ON BBC ROW

Maria Miller has entered the row over John Inverdale's comments about the Wimbledon women's champion Marion Bartoli's looks by writing to the BBC. Mrs Miller wrote that it is "a matter of some concern to me that any comment on the looks and stature of a female athlete could be made in the context of one of the highlights of the UK’s, and indeed the world’s, sporting calendar." It's enough to earn the front page of the Mail, and you can read the full letter here.  

NO QUICK FIXES

The Bank of England may slowly be moving away from quantitative easing and towards a more "mixed" strategy, including guiding markets. It marks a radical change in the Bank's policy within days of Mark Carney's arrival, as the FT (£) reports. The assured Mr Carney - though they call him Mark - is earning his cash. But he will know there are no quick fixes to the UK's financial problems; if he has any doubts, the OBR have issued a reminder. The OBR have said that Britain faces another £19 billion of austerity in 2018 to prevent healthcare and pensions blowing a £65 billion black hole in the public finances by 2062 - and debt soaring to 99 per cent by this date. The Government's cap on car home expenses will add 0.3 per cent of GDP to spending by 2062, even though it will only benefit one pensioner out of 200 in its first decade, and one in eight ever. It's very dreary stuff to ponder in the heat, but these are problems that won't go away. 

TWEETS AND TWITS 

Chris Heaton-Harris admires the Tories hard at work: 

@chhcalling: Found lots of Tory MPs on the EU Referendum Bill Committee in Tea-room recharging & ready to go through the night to get it passed. 

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph

Peter Oborne - The Left talks gibberish while Cameron racks up successes

Sue Cameron - Does Whitehall need more party placemen?

Con Coughlin - A last salvo from the general 

Telegraph View - For primary schools, knowledge is power

Best of the rest 

David Aarovitch in The Times (£) - After Liverpool we need a better way of dying

Rafael Behr in The New Statesman - The Tories think they're winning - but it's the coalition

Peter Wilby in The Guardian - Primary school tests follow the Piccadilly Circus rule

Steve Richards in The Independent - Cameron wants to reform the NHS. But it was his government that handed over the levers

THE AGENDA

0850 London: Office for National Statistics (ONS) media briefing: Quarterly Crime Statistics.
0900: Call Clegg on LBC 97.3 radio.
1730 London: House of Commons breaks for the summer holidays.

NHS blame game continues..

Good morning. The NHS dominates the headlines this morning, after yesterday's release of the Keogh review and the heated Commons debate. The immediate result was 11 NHS trusts put into "special measures"; the longer-term one could be the further eroding of the public's trust in Labour's management of the NHS on what the Mail call "Labour's day of shame". Inevitably, the Commons debate soon turned nakedly political, with both the Conservatives and Labour blaming each other for this turn of events. While David Cameron accused Labour of "covering up" NHS failings and Jeremy Hunt said the investigation was Labour's "darkest moment", Andy Burnham accused the Government of making the health situation worse. It was all very political for the non-political; encapsulated in the headline to Michael Deacon's sketch: "It was no time for point-scoring by the cynical, partisan MP opposite." PerhapsThe Times (£) have it right in labelling the Commons debate "an unedifying spat". 

But, of course, there is a more serious point: how can we fix the NHS? We argue that "This should not be a party-political point: witness the improvements achieved by Tony Blair and Alan Milburn’s tentative embrace of choice and competition." The Mail says that an NHS which is free at the point of use "can no longer be treated as a sacred cow". Simon Jenkins writes in The Guardian that the NHS is "trapped in an emotional 1940s time-warp. For it really to improve, foreign experience should be studied and smaller independent units used". Mary Riddell takes a step back from the raucous to look at what the future may hold, and believes that Mr Burnham's idea for integrated health and social care "might just save the health service", if only Ed Miliband would back it. 

The NHS row will go on: expect it to dominate PMQs today. The uproar confirms the remarkable turnaround in perceptions of the NHS. A year ago it remained immune to criticism, a Labour fortress impervious to any Tory critique. Jeremy Hunt has achieved what Conservatives either thought impossible, or hadn't thought of trying: instead of persuading the public that the Tories can be trusted with the health service, he has convinced us that Labour can't be - and that the NHS is fallible. Quite a turnaround for a minister who a year ago was in intensive care.

WHO'S THE REAL LYNTON CROSBY? 

As Lynton Crosby remains in the news, with The Times (£) reporting that the tobacco company linked to him blocked the release of details of a meeting in which plans to impose plain packaging were discussed, it is an opportune moment to assess his impact on the Conservative Party. There is little doubt that Mr Crosby's razor-like focus on a few key areas has helped revive Conservative fortunes. Iain Martin explains how Mr Crosby has transformed the party with "a simple message" and "iron discipline" and argues that it's inevitable that he will go full-time before the election. For a man officially only contracted for a day a week, Mr Crosby is having quite an impact. 

PRIMARY SCHOOL SHAKE-UP

Primary schools have been relatively unaffected by the Coalition's education reforms, but that is about to change. It will today be announced that children will be ranked in national performance in English and maths at the age of 11 as part of reforms to SATs tests. Other measures include a new "baseline" assessment of pupils at the age of five, more stretching targets for schools and an increase in the "pupil premium" from £900 to £1,300 a year. While Michael Gove has driven the previous education reforms, these have been designed by Nick Clegg and David Laws.  

LABOUR OPEN TO REDUCING NUCLEAR FLEET

Labour are considering supporting reducing the size of Britain's nuclear submarine fleet from four to three, The Times (£) reports. Labour plan to use a defence review after the next election to examine whether the continuous-at-sea deterrent could be maintained with one fewer submarine. The position places them between the Conservatives, who want to maintain all four submarines, and the Lib Dems, who are keen to reduce them to two. That would end the continuous-at-sea deterrent.The FT (£) thinks that the Lib Dems "have embraced a weak, differentiated position at the cost of credibility", while The Times (£) describes their stance as lacking strategic or financial sense.

CBI TO ATTACK GOVERNMENT

The CBI will today launch a wide-ranging attack on the Government. John Cridland, Director-General of the CBI, will join those who have challenged the consensus on HS2 by suggesting alternative ways to spend the money, as The Times (£) reports: "The savings achieved from scrapping the scheme could be used to fund more railways lines from north to south, and on extending motorways to Newcastle and across South Wales." He will also criticise the Government for the signals they have sent to businesses through their comments criticising tax avoidance. 

LABOUR ARROGANT AND STUPID

Labour were guilty of "astonishing arrogance and short-sighted stupidity". That's the verdict of William Hague on Labour's decision to enshrine the Lisbon Treaty into British law. The comments, to Open Europe, may also have been aimed at Tories concerned that the Government seem committed to campaigning to stay within the Europe Union even before the renegotiations.

TWEETS AND TWITS 

Jim Murphy has no intention of stopping the NHS blame game: 

@jimmurphymp: Despite disagreeing with Jeremy Hunt I thought he may be decent & talented. But after his horrible smear on Andy Burnham I know I was wrong. 

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph 

Iain Martin - Can Crosby cross the line?

Mary Riddell - The NHS is not a creaking relic, whatever the Tories may say

Jesse Norman - Profit has never been a company’s only duty

Telegraph View - A health service that needs special measures

Best of the rest 

Daniel Finkelstein in The Times (£) - Arab Spring? No, more of a temper

Nigel Crisp in The Financial Times (£) - Patients need to be given more power

Simon Jenkins in The Guardian - Another NHS crisis? This is no way to run a public service

Matthew Norman in The Independent - IDS politically motivated? God forbid!

THE AGENDA

0930 London: Bank of England publishes minutes of Governor Mark Carney's first monetary policy committee meeting on July 4. 

0930: Unemployment figures. Latest unemployment figures from Office for National Statistics. 

1050 London: Nick Clegg and schools minister David Laws announcement on funding for the pupil premium. St Joseph's Primary School, Macklin Street, Holborn.

1200 London: Prime Minister's Questions. House of Commons.

Poll boost for Cameron..

BREAKING NEWS: Philip Hammond has been on the Today programme attacking the Liberal Democrats' position on Trident:

"I think it’s frankly either naïve or reckless. 

"We do not believe that with nuclear threats if anything proliferating, this is the time to downgrade.  

"The part-time deterrent will save us only trivial sums of money, about £50-60m a year in net present value terms over the life of the system. And in the context of the overall Defence budget that’s about 0.17% - that’s a tiny saving for a huge gamble with Britain’s security."

  

TORIES STOP THE BLEEDING TO UKIP

Good morning. The new Guardian poll will add to the perception that it has been a good month for Dave. It shows the Conservatives on 36 per cent - level with Labour. Obviously there are plenty of caveats - it's just one poll and isn't in line with other recent surveys, as Labour and Ukip have both emphasised. Still, it's sure to give the Conservatives plenty of cheer just two days before Parliamentary recess. Ukip's support is down to seven per cent - a sign that the Tory bleeding to Ukip has been halted at last. A divided Right would seem to represent Ed Miliband's best chance of winning a Parliamentary majority, and Tory MPs are concerned at the damage that Ukip could do winning six per cent of the vote in 2015. In itself this poll doesn't prove anything, but it acts as another counter to Tory defeatism.

Attention is also turning to what exactly a Conservative government after 2015 would do. The Times (£) report that George Osborne is considering a further trimming of the welfare bill. The story is that the £26,000 Benefit Cap could be reduced to £20,000, building on what is so far one of the Government's most popular policies (despite the disputes about the statistics used by Iain Duncan Smith). Such an approach reflects Mr Osborne's "no new taxes" approach to the savings needed after 2015. The relative lack of difficulty in settling on the Comprehensive Spending Review seems to vindicate such an approach. But, with Nick Clegg seemingly set on vetoing further welfare cuts this Parliament, they will probably have to wait until after 2015. 

OPINION SETTLES BEHIND KEEPING TRIDENT

We publish a letter today from five former Defence Secretaries. They might disagree on much, but they are united on the need to keep the nuclear deterrent in full, rejecting the suggestion of Danny Alexander that the number of Vanguard submarines could be halved from four to two: 

We cannot possibly foresee what threats will develop over the next 30 years. Reducing our submarine-based Trident capability would weaken our national security for the sake of a very small fraction of the defence budget.

Labour's exact position remains under review, but they are unconvinced by the argument for a cheaper deterrent. In practical terms, this means the Lib Dems would have to accept defeat on the issue in any coalition negotiations after 2015. As we argue, their position on Trident amounts to a deeply unsatisfactory fudge: "If they want to argue against a deterrent, then they should do so openly, rather than seek to promote watered-down versions that would simply render it useless."    

NHS BLAME GAME CONTINUES

Rows between the Conservatives and Labour on the NHS continue. While ministers say they will abolish the Liverpool Care Pathway following an independent review, a separate report by Professor Sir Bruce Keogh will expose a history of failings at 14 hospital trusts with high death rates. Andy Burnham has reacted by criticising "a mistake of monumental proportions for David Cameron to go back on his pledge of no top-down re-organisation and instead throw the NHS into a huge upheaval" in a piece for us. But the failings of the 14 hospital trusts raises uncomfortable questions for Labour, according to former No 10 special adviser Sean Worth. He writes for us that, despite past mistakes, "there is little hope of Miliband being able to change Labour’s current policy of taking the NHS back to a state-only system of “preferred providers” to deliver hospital care." 

LOBBYGATE RUMBLES ON

The row over Lynton Crosby's links to tobacco rumbles on, with Jeremy Hunt today facing questions in the Commons over how plain packaging was abandoned until after the next election. Minutes of a meeting between officials and a tobacco company linked to Mr Crosby had yet to be released, as The Times (£) reports. Ed Miliband has described Mr Crosby's links as amounting to a "clear conflict of interest". Questions have also been asked over why Mr Cameron has not published a register of ministers' financial interests since December 2011. While Dave opposes a salary increase for MPs, this leaves him vulnerable to charges of having one rule for the generals and a different one for the troops.

YEP, TOO MANY TWEETS

What was Dave's line about Twitter again? He provided a reminder of it by linking to a fake Iain Duncan Smith Twitter account yesterday. Time to stop interns having control over Twitter accounts, perhaps? A No 10 spokesman last night said only: "The PM's tweets are entirely his views."

THE COUNTRYSIDE GETS POLITICAL

The Campaign to Protect Rural England could be important players at the next general election. In response to the Coalition's proposed planning reforms, they plan to ask every Conservative, Labour and the Liberal Democrat candidate to sign a charter to save the English countryside. CPRE want developers to build on brownfield sites, protecting greenfield areas. 

WIN €100,000 FOR GETTING BRITAIN OUT OF THE EU

The IEA have announced a new €100,000 prize for the best roadmap of how Britain could leave the EU and the geo-political and economic landscape that would follow, with Lord Lawson leading the judging panel.Full details are here. Gisela Stuart, who is also on the panel, writes for us that, "Unless there is a credible scenario for a UK outside the EU there is little point in debating whether we should stay or leave."

TWEETS AND TWITS 

Is the heat getting to Chris Heaton-Harris?

@chhcalling: I'm organising a "Fruit Preservation Society" evening. I'm just sending out the 'Save the date' cards. 

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph 

Sean Worth - Labour must bear the blame for the shameful decline of the NHS

Gisela Stuart - We must answer the 100,000-euro question

Philip Johnston - Britain’s gone from nanny state to naggy state

Telegraph View - Deterrence can’t be done on the cheap

Best of the rest 

Rachel Sylvester in The Times (£) - Using NHS as a football will be a Tory own goal

Janan Ganesh in The Financial Times (£) - Happy days for the UK’s kingmaker

George Monbiot in The Guardian - Cigarette packaging: the corporate smokescreen

Ian Birrell in The Guardian - The civil service: a monster in Whitehall

THE AGENDA

Today: Government publishes bill for statutory register of lobbyists. 

12:00 London: Danny Alexander outlines findings of the Trident Alternatives Review. Royal United Services Institute, Whitehall.

14:30 London: Foreign Affairs Committee holds one of its twice-yearly evidence sessions with William Hague. House of Commons committee room.

Who has Dave's ear..

Good morning. After weeks of quiet, there's a bit of unfinished business before recess. Legislation will be published tomorrow under which Lynton Crosby will have to disclose the clients who use his lobbying consultancy amid questions over why the plan to introduce plain packaging for cigarettes was delayed, as The Times (£) reports.

Dave has been getting it in the neck for his failure to deal with perceived problems in the lobbying industry. Critics like to remind him as often as possible of what he said when he was in opposition - that lobbying was "the next big scandal waiting to happen" after MPs' expenses. Well, he's decided to act, and his enemies will interpret this as a belated reaction to the stick he's been getting over Lynton Crosby. As usual, it's the perception that hurts more than the reality. Labour will push for amendments to strengthen the Lobbying Bill, while the Lib Dems' Paul Burstow has called for Mr Crosby's resignation. It's not the best time for Susie Squire, one of Dave's most trusted aides, to announce she is leaving for South Africa to be with her husband. Dave is reportedly very keen for her to return to help with the 2015 election campaign. Her departure is a loss to Mr Cameron, as she brought a refreshing perspective from beyond the gilded world of the Oxbridge chumocracy to the operation.

There are other things Dave would rather talk about. One is the Benefit Cap limiting welfare payments to £26,000 a year: national roll out of the cap is today, and it is expected to affect 40,000 families. Grant Shapps has marked its launch by writing that Labour is "miles behind" on welfare.

There need not be any contradiction between this and wider efforts to win over the working class, as Tory MPs often remind us. David Skelton, a former deputy director of Policy Exchange and Conservative parliamentary candidate, today launches Renewal, a campaign group that aims to broaden the appeal of the Conservatives. Key recommendations include a freeze (or even a cut) in fuel duty, devolving planning powers to stir a private sector-led Northern economic revival and renewed efforts to win the support of trade unionists. As Mr Skelton writes in an article for us, "the majority of Tory target seats have an above-average proportion of public sector workers." The Guardian thinks that the Conservatives are asking the right questions for a party in need of a majority - and that there are lessons for Labour. If that's right, then the formation of Renewal could yet seem far more significant than the lobbying affair.

But it's not only Renewal who are trying to get Dave to listen. In a very different area, Samantha Cameron is pushing her husband to act. A Cabinet minister says that Samantha is the "biggest reason" for her husband's posturing on Syria, The Times (£) reports. It wouldn't be the only area in which this is true, with Tim Montgomerie writing in The Times (£) that "behind the scenes, Mrs Cameron — green, international humanitarian, tolerant, liberal, feminist — will remain the Conservative Party’s most influential moderniser."    

HAMMOND v LIB DEMS

One potential obstacle to a second term of a Con-Lib coalition is disagreements over Trident. Danny Alexander will this week outline ways in which Trident can be downgraded, with cutting the number of nuclear submarines a preferred option. Even that seems unpalatable to Philip Hammond, who writes in the Mail that it is "No time to lower our guard". There is an element of posturing about both positions. If the arithmetic was right and the will existed to continue on the economic programme, it's hard to envisage rows over Trident scuppering a second coalition term.

AND VINCE DIFFERENTIATES TOO 

Vince Cable will give a speech at the London Stock Exchange at 08:50 in which he will outline proposals to tackle corporate excess and stop Britain becoming a haven for “shell” companies, as the FT (£) reports. Negligent directors could also be made personally liable for repaying failed companies’ debts. Much as with Danny Alexander's report on Trident, the Lib Dem strategy of differentiation runs at the heart of Mr Cable's speech. Tories might joke that they wish that the name of the discussion paper Mr Cable launches - Trust and Transparency - was also an apt description of Vince's role in the coalition. 

TURN HEATHROW INTO A LONDON BOROUGH, SAYS BORIS 

Boris Johnson will today call for the Government to buy Heathrow for £15 billion and convert the site into a London borough for 250,000 people, notes The Times (£). Boris is publishing three solutions to Britain’s aviation needs: "Boris island" in the Thames Estuary, a four-runway hub on reclaimed land on the Isle of Grain and a four-runway hub at Stansted. 

CARNEY'S CHOICE 

The deadline has passed for applications to be the next deputy governor of the Bank of England. Although Mark Carney has no formal involvement in the process, the FT (£) reports that George Osborne will ensure that Mr Carney is instrumental in making the choice. Four men lead the list of potential candidates, two from within the BoE – Andy Haldane and Paul Fisher – and two from the Treasury – Tom Scholar and John Kingman. Whoever gets the job will become the frontrunner to replace Mr Carney if he steps down, as expected, at the end of his five-year term in 2018. 

TWEETS AND TWITS 

Nick de Bois is a busy man:

@nickdebois: My sons graduation day tomorrow and my daughters graduation on the same day-challenging more so with #insomnia the night before! 

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph 

David Skelton - Here’s how the Conservatives can win back the working class 

Grant Shapps - Labour are 'miles behind' on welfare

Andrew Cameron - Veterans need our help on the home front

Telegraph View - Labour remains in denial over NHS responsibility

Best of the rest 

Tim Montgomerie in The Times (£) - You've been Sammed 

Owen Jones in The Independent - For Tories, privatisation is still a matter of dogmatic faith

Tanya Gold in The Guardian - We should mock our politicians only after we've examined their policies

Philip Hammond in The Daily Mail - No time to lower our guard

The Agenda

Today

Renewal group launched.

08:50 London: 'Responsible Capitalism' policy conference, examining the debate around the 'crisis of capitalism'. Speakers include Business Sec Vince Cable and London Stock Exchange Chairman Chris Gibson-Smith. 45 Great Peter Street, London.

Beyond 2015..

Good morning. As the clock ticks towards recess - just one week to go - there are a couple of early election skirmishes to report: George Osborne's pledge not to raise taxes in the next Parliament; and the announcement of Tory 'red lines' in any future coalition negotiations.

Let's deal with Mr Osborne first. He spoke at the Treasury Select Committee yesterday about how he would cut the deficit in the next Parliament. The answer, as reported in The Times (£): “I’m clear that tax increases are not required to achieve this". The books can be balanced “through spending reductions. I don’t think we have reached the end-point in reforming welfare.” Vote for George and the Conservatives - they won't raise your taxes a dime. Naturally, the implication is that Labour and the Liberal Democrats will. Dare either of those parties take "the pledge"? Surely not, given their fondness for a mansion tax and other squeezes on the rich. Mr Osborne's comments are very obvious electioneering. The aim, surely, is to raise public concern about the true nature of Labour's tax plans. It will be interesting to see how Labour respond; silence would be the easiest option, but this risks allowing Mr Osborne to set the terms of the 2015 election debate.

Naturally his strategy is not without risks. It rather evokes George Bush Sr's pledge in the 1988 election: "Read my lips. No new taxes." But after taxes had to be raised, Bush's words were all the ammunition the Democrats needed in the 1992 campaign. Still, given where the Conservatives are now, Mr Osborne could be forgiven for settling for breaking the pledge. For now, what happens if he can help pull off a Tory majority in 2015 is neither here nor there.  

The other noteworthy news is talk of "red lines" from the Conservatives ahead of the 2015 election. Tories on the backbenches are demanding a promise not to create a “mansion tax”, and a pledge to retain the Trident nuclear deterrent in any deal after the 2015 election, Bloomberg reports. In both cases, the demands are opposed to what the Lib Dems want: this certainly has the capacity to make another Dave-Nick coalition tricky. But it's dangerous to try and detect from this red lines business a reliable prediction of what happens after 2015: it's all manoeuvring. It remains the case that Mr Clegg is determined to maintain equidistance between the Conservatives and Labour. So while a deal with Labour is not impossible, we shouldn't underestimate the power of the bonds forged in government with the Tories. Heck, Dave and Nick will even be taking their summer holidays at overlapping times, as if they can't imagine governing without each other. 

SALARY DEBATE RUMBLES ON

Michael Gove has weighed in on IPSA's recommendations of an increase in MPs' salaries: "As far as I am concerned they can stick it. MPs are incredibly well paid." In a debate that too often slips into populism - partly thanks to the party leaders, with Mr Clegg and Mr Miliband both saying that they would personally reject a pay rise - we need a more reasoned debate. As we say, "If individual MPs think they deserve an increase, they should say so and make the case before their constituents. Some are proving their value in the more boisterous committees and increasingly independent back benches of this Parliament." The Guardian think that a raise could be justified - but only if the Lords was reformed and the size of the Commons was too. 

GEORGE & HIS JOGGING JAWBONE

 

George Osborne has revealed the lengths he is prepared go to keep fit (keep the jogging jokes to yourselves, please). He wears a hi-tech wristband which tracks his every step and even monitors his movement while he is asleep: you have to put the effort in to look the part, you see. Taking a rare break from his fitness schedule, Mr Osborne has also toldthe quacking mad story of the lengths that civil servants had to go to to move some ducks from a fountain in the Treasury courtyard.  

MINIMUM ALCOHOL TAX KILLED OFF

Dave's plans for a minimum alcohol tax will be formally killed off next week. Ministers will switch their attention to banning retailers from selling alcohol at very cheap prices in “loss-leader” deals. After the Coalition's announcement last year that it would introduce a minimum unit price, it amounts to another U-turn from Dave. 

BORIS: PUBLIC DON'T CARE ABOUT AFFAIRS

Boris reckons allegations about his private life can't damage his public standing: "My genuine experience is that no matter how much of this stuff gets in the public domain it doesn't really make any difference to what the public think you are doing." And while his joke about women going to university to find men has not gone down well, Fraser Nelson points out that Boris is one of few politicians to have recognised that work is becoming a women's world. 

TWEETS AND TWITS 

Chris Heaton-Harris fine-tunes his jokes before recess: 

@chhcalling: What do you call a row of Barbie dolls? A Barbecue. 

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Boris Johnson wasn’t joking – work is becoming a woman’s world

Jeremy Warner - China’s great leap forward hits the wall

Isabel Hardman - The Archbishop of Canterbury must wean the Church off its benefit addiction

Telegraph View - Let MPs make their case for a pay rise

Best of the rest 

John Kampfner in The Times (£) - Clegg is set to be kingmaker again in 2015

Andrew McDonald in The Independent - Yes, we believe they deserve a pay hike - but there will be sacrifices

Polly Toynbee in The Guardian - Yes, universal credit is simple 

Samuel Brittan in The Financial Times (£) - The real target that Carney should aim for

The Agenda

Today

London: Business Secretary Vince Cable will make an industrial sector strategy announcement.

MPs can't do a lot right..

Good morning. MPs can't do a lot right. First they give up control over their salaries to an independent body. Then the independent body proposes a salary rise that is embarrassing. That will happen today when the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority will recommend a salary increase of £6,500 for MPs after the next election. There might be a "get out of jail" card, with IPSA expected to recommend that the decision should be “reviewed in the first year of the next parliament”, according to economic circumstances. Even IPSA's recommended increase isn't as generous as it might seem. The plan aims to be revenue neutral, coming with caveats including a reduction in the final salary pension awarded to MPs and a cut in expenses including the dinner allowance.

The real losers are the backbenchers: have they ever been less appreciated by their parties? It's a problem that goes far deeper than the lack of attention given to them by Dave. Ed Miliband has new plansbanning Labour MPs from holding company directorships and earning more than 15 per cent of their income through outside interests by the next general election. It sometimes seems as if party leaders are in a race to see who can bash MPs more - a populism which only perpetuates the negative way in which the public views MPs.  

Ironically, the populism leaders espouse on MPs' salaries contributes to a problem they all share - the party funding crisis. Yesterday's PMQs exchange between Dave and Ed on the matter was heated. But The Times (£) notes that restarting cross-party talks on party funding could yet be an option this Parliament.  

TORY RIGHT GIVING MAY TROUBLE

Theresa May may no longer be a darling of the Tory Right after they expressed her angst over her plans to opt back in to 35 pan-European crime and justice measures, including the European arrest warrant. While Mrs May's proposals would still see the repatriation of 98 powers to the UK, there are concerns that it will be impossible to opt back out of the other measures. Yesterday's 1922 Committee meeting was a tense affair; I'm told things are going to get more difficult for the Home Secretary.

LABOUR COUNTERATTACK ON WELFARE

The polling data has long showed that the public trust the Conservatives more than Labour on welfare. Given the political salience of welfare, this is one of the biggest obstacles to Ed Miliband becoming PM. So it makes sense for Labour to attempt a counter-attack on the issue. Slow progress in the Universal Credit - which will now be run at only six Jobcentres this year - has been seized on by Labour. Liam Byrne described the news as "final confirmation that the welfare revolution we were promised has collapsed". There is more bad news for the Universal Credit with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation finding that some families who work full time could have less disposable cash than those who work part-time. But, whatever the teething difficulties of the Universal Credit, Labour still have much convincing to do to break through on welfare. Even their complaints about rising inequality are losing their sting, with The Independent reporting that inequality has slipped to its smallest level for a generation. 

THE HEIR TO BLAIR?

Ed Miliband's proposed reforms to the relationship between trade unions and the Labour Party may be those of a man in a corner. But that is not to say they will fail: just look at Dave, so often at his best when left with nowhere else to go. Some are not born courageous, but have courage thrust upon them. That's the verdict of John McTernan, who thinks that Mili E may yet become the heir to Blair:

He is playing a weak hand strongly – under attack from Left and Right, from McCluskey and Cameron, he has struck back and created new political space. Being seen to have broken the link with the unions shows the public that you are a leader and you have changed your party. 

SHOULD WHITEHALL FEAR CIVIL SERVICE REFORM?

Many in Whitehall will not find Francis Maude's proposed reforms of the Civil Service welcome, with fears that it will lead to the Service becoming overly politicised. Such a view is not shared by Sir Hayden Phillips, who describes the proposals as "sensible and timely" in The Times (£).     

THE BBB CLUB

Backbench MPs and ministers have formed ‘the BBB Club’, standing for ‘bol****ed by Bercow’, as the Mail reports. The MPs plan to wear club badges before next week's PMQs. The Speaker has seemed increasingly combative in recent weeks, accusing ministers of not answering questions adequately in the House and branding Philip Hammond "utterly incompetent". But at least he is providing some entertainment at a time when Parliament seems to have taken an early recess. 

DOUBLE FAULT

William Hague appeared to mouth "Stupid woman" during a question from Labour MP Cathy Jamieson about Mr Hague's actions in helping Aidan Heavey, a Tory donor, over a tax dispute during PMQs yesterday. Perhaps, as Michael Deacon writes, Mr Hague really said "Stupendous weather!" or "Stamping Wombles!" And there was a double fault at PMQs, with Dave describing Andy Murray as "the first British player to win in 77 years", forgetting Virginia Wade's Wimbledon victory in 1977. 

TWEETS AND TWITS 

Robert Halon has a warning about post office privatisation: 

@halfon4harlowMP: Govt has to make sure that post office modernisation does not go the way of utility companies like water: 

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph

Peter Oborne - Britain is betraying its values in its response to the Egyptian coup

John McTernan - Miliband is emerging as the true heir to Blair

Richard Spencer - The jihadis are waiting in Egypt

Telegraph View - Royal Mail must modernise to deliver

Best of the rest 

Sir Hayden Phillips in The Times (£) - It’s not the thin end of the wedge, Sir Humphrey

Matt Ridley in The Times (£) - There’s no cure to the health spending paradox

Martin Kettle in The Guardian - Can Ed Miliband give England a political voice at last?

Bobby McDonagh in The Financial Times (£) - Britain, Ireland and two peace processes

The Agenda

08:45 London: Reform annual conference, featuring Danny Alexander, David Gauke and Jeremy Browne. Clifford Chance, Upper Bank Street, Canary Wharf.

1000 London: George Osborne gives evidence to Treasury Select Committee on Spending Round 2013. Thatcher Room, Portcullis House, London, SW1A 2LW. 

1000: Proposals on MP pay and pensions published. Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority releases details of new remuneration package for consultation.