George Osborne strikes the right tone..

Good morning. The Minister for Mockney's speech on welfare reform receives a broadly positive reception this morning, even if his new-found accent doesn't. As we report, the headline move was a promise by the Chancellor to find a way around EU rules which allow foreign workers resident in Britain to claim child benefit for dependants who do not live in the UK. For those who say the Conservative machine never learns its lessons, the emphasis on finding a legal method of circumventing European law suggests that someone was taking notes in the aftermath of Dave's speech on migrants which was subsequently undermined by questions over the legality of his plans. As Philip Johnston blogged for us, many of the themes in the speech echo those found in Mr Tony's welfare-to-work phase. As with New Labour, there is also a rider - if work is going to pay, then not working will have to pay less (at least in real terms). The next step in weaning Britain from its dependency on the Government coffers may be requiring those claiming universal credits to work longer hours or attend job interviews more frequently, as the Guardian reports. The jobs many will be competing for will be on the minimum wage, and contrary to reports yesterday that will not be falling. As we report, Number 10 has confirmed there is no cut in the offing this year. It's a balanced package, one the Times (£) calls "unavoidable but necessary", although as its leader points out, ring-fencing around half of the welfare budget means a disproportionate strain on working age benefits.



Policy announcements aside, it's the astonishing ease with which the heir to the Osborne baronetcy switched to the language of the people which has captivated Fleet Street. The Chancellor's sudden conversion to "Estuary English...was the sorda English you mide especk da hear from Migg Jagger or Keef Richardz. Budda be honiss widja, it suits dem bedder, cos from a Chanssla, indeed any polidician or staceman, it sounzer bid sloppy," Michael Deacon concludes.

Aside from a popular surge for the Tories among White Van Man, what political impact will George's words have? With his strategist's hat on, the Chancellor thinks he's on to a winner. The Concervative line chimes with the mood of the nation, leaving Labour to attack one of the Coalition's most popular policies. As Brendan O'Neill points out, a great deal of the enthusiasm for life on the welfare state seems to come from the Left-leaning and comfortably off middle class agitators. Appealing to the sensibilities of this class alone is not likely to endear Ed Miliband to the wider electorate. Writing for us, Mary Riddell argues that welfare reforms will force Ed Miliband to abandon the softly-softly strategy he has adopted until now:



"Although caution has generally served him well, a welfare crisis engulfing those whom Labour was created to defend demands more than rhetoric. The issue that the leadership cannot duck is what it would do for all citizens, not least low earners now at their wits’ end. As one senior Miliband loyalist says: 'If we in Labour cannot say what a Labour government would mean, then the question is unanswered and unanswerable.'"

ROHAN RESIGNS

So farewell then Rohan Silva, who has confirmed, in an interview with Tech City News, what has been long speculated about. He will leave No 10 in June to try his hand at being a tech entrepreneur. He's been offered a berth by a venture capital firm which he will use to explore opportunities in online education.When I spoke to him last night he was full of his usual optimism. He's been banging on about the importance of fostering entrepreneurship for all his near eight years working for the Conservatives; it's time to practise what he preaches. He's 32 and reckons he will kick himself if he doesn't give it a whirl. What does his departure mean for Dave, if anything? Rohan was on the ambitious end of the policy spectrum, fizzing with ideas and a hunger to change things. Not all of it worked, and opinions on his effectiveness are mixed. But like Steve Hilton, he pressed Mr Cameron to be bold, whether in tech or life sciences or releasing Government data sets and using them. The PM needs more of these revolutionaries around him at a time when some believe his radicalism is deflating. But we should also acknowledge that it's the mid-way point of the parliament, when the PM and his advisers turn to face the next election. It's a good time to go, and to change the team.

FOR THE BENEFIT OF MR DUNCAN SMITH

The saga of IDS and the £53 challenge rolls on, and nothing is quite what it seems. For a start, the impoverished market trader who issued the challenge on Radio 4 actually earns £156 a week, once his market stall takings are factored in, as we report. David Bennett receives £232 a month is housing benefit and £200 a month in working tax credit, hardly a fortune, but triple the amount implied in calls for IDS to survive on £200 a month. That petition, which has now obtained over 300,000 signatures, has drawn a withering response from IDS. As the Guardian reports, he has called it a "stunt". He has also told his local paper, the Wanstead and Woodford Guardian, that "I have been unemployed twice in my life so I have already done this. I know what it is like to live on the breadline."

Still, just in case he was tempted to do a bit of reality TV of his own, G2 has prepared a dossier on politicians living on the dole from Piers Merchant to David Willetts. Most famous of all was Matthew Parris, who took up the challenge of subsisting for a week in a Newcastle bedsit on £26.80 in 1986. As the Observer's review at the time recorded, "with two days to go he was down to his last 61p, and his plan to save £3 out of his £26.80 had collapsed. On his last evening the gas and electricity ran out and he loitered in a working men's club, unable to afford a drink." That said, as Mr Parris pointed out in a Radio 5 programme on Monday, he could have survived if he wanted to. His capitulation came purely as the result of a mis-placed desire to please the programmes producers who were anxious that he should fail.

CHINESE FAST FIX

In a private presentation to the Cabinet last week, Theresa May promised to simplify the visa system for Chinese nationals seeking to visit Britain, we report. While the reforms address the concerns raised with her by senior Cabinet members from Dave and Nick downwards, they also amount to a climbdown for Mrs May. As our leader puts it, though, so much the better if the "global race" rhetoric is to become reality.

LIKE A BRIDGE INTO TROUBLED WATERS

The Chancellor's new motorway is already taking a toll (boom, tish) on Westminster's relations with the Cardiff government. The FT (£) reports that a spokesman for the Labour-run devolved administration has described the idea as unworkable given that drivers must already pay a toll to cross the Severn Bridge while the Forth Bridge being constructed in Scotland is toll free. As the Western Mail reports, Conservative Assembly Members are hardly ecstatic, either, with Byron Davies pointing out that two adjourning toll routes may deter visitors who think "it's going to cost them a fortune" to visit the country.

CAMERON REJECTS EU VOTE CLAMOUR

More than 100 Conservative MPs have signed a letter demanding that the Prime Minister put forward legislation which would set the date of an EU referendum. John Baron, who organised the petition, said yesterday that "this would address the lack of public trust" on the pledge, politely neglecting to mention that it was Dave's last adventure in the world of EU referendum promises which is responsible for the disillusionment. In any case, the Prime Minister remains unmoved. As we report, Downing Street says it will not proceed with legislation which will not gain support from the Lib Dems and Labour.

UNION CITY BLUES

The Unite union is calling for other unions to join a 24 hour general strike which it describes as an "explicitly political" attack on the government's austerity policies, the FT (£) reports. It's a position which presumes the strikers are at work for such a length of time each day that their absence would be noted. The NUT's latest suggestion, that teachers should limit themselves to the equivalent of only four hours of teaching time a day, was accompanied by chants of "Gove must go" and a unanimous vote of no confidence in the Education Secretary at the union's annual conference, as the Mail reports. It's a long way from beer and sandwiches at Number 10, that's for sure.

HOWARTH'S DEFENCE HOWITZER

The former defence minister who was sacked by Dave in the last reshuffle, Sir Gerald Howarth, has taken the helm at Conservative Way Forward, the pressure group which aims to continue the legacy of Margaret Thatcher. As we report, Sir Gerald intends to use his position to fight defence cuts, arguing that we must "fund and support our armed forces properly". He added that the group would also argue for protections for the City of London, and against obstacles to social mobility.

THE PAYING OF THE 5,000

Civil servants and council officers, including whistleblowers, have been gagged at an expense of up to £400,000 each, we report. Almost 5,000 staff members have been paid off, including 200 Whitehall officials, including Philippa Williamson, a former chief executive at the Serious Fraud Office, who left on voluntary redundancy with a £462,000 payment from taxpayers. One for the shrinking violets of the Public Accounts Committee, perhaps?

THE NAME'S TYRIE, ANDREW TYRIE

The report by the Banking Standards Committee on the near collapse of HBOS, and the failure of the FSA to anticipate a problem, is out this week. The Independent has taken the opportunity to interview the committee's head, Andrew Tyrie who it describes as "a shopkeeper's son in a party dominated by posh boys...[not] a great parliamentary orator". Mr Tyrie represents a new class of politician, it argues, as "an independent-minded backbencher with as much, if not more, influence as many ministers." It's a career that makes you some strange friends, if this description of a pivotal moment in his campaign against British complicity in American extraordinary rendition is anything to go by:

"It was while showering after a swim in the RAC Club in Pall Mall that Tyrie, in a scene out of Le Carre, was convinced by a mysterious figure 'on the inside' to press ahead with his campaign. Scarcely visible in the steam someone (Tyrie won’t say if he was from British intelligence) wandered past and said: 'I’d persist if I were you.' Taken aback, the MP says: 'I asked him "Have you got anything you want to tell me?" but he wandered off into the mist.'

TWEETS AND TWITS

Branching out from his popular series of film reviews, Mike Weir tackles weightier matters:

@mikeweirsnp: "I just had an automated telemarketing call at 11.25pm! A new low of insanity ."

TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph

Mary Riddell - A welfare crisis engulfs the nation, but Labour sits idly by

Brendan O'Neill - The Left appears to think welfare reform is sacrilgious - but to the dismay of hand-wringing commentators, those trapped on benefits take a different view

David Blair - We're about to find out if aid really does work

Telegraph View - Remove the obstacles to a real recovery

Best of the Rest

John Kampfner in The Guardian - A radical Lib-Lab coalition could begin next month

John Rentoul in The Independent - The Miliband experiment has been tried before. Remember Brown?

Andrew Alexander in the Daily Mail - HS2, the high speed hiding to nothing...

Graeme Cooke in the FT (£) - Britain's welfare state can be cheaper and popular

THE AGENDA

09:30 am: Bank of England credit conditions survey for the first quarter of 2013.

09:30 am: Bank of England publishes its housing equity withdrawal figures for the fourth quarter of last year.

Osborne goes on the offensive..

Good morning. Nine out of ten households prefer benefit reform. That will be George Osborne's message today in a speech which will defend the tax and allowance changes which came into effect yesterday. As we report, George will train his fire on those who "always complain with depressingly predictable outrage" (both the Guardian and Mirrorhelpfully chipped in yesterday with suitably apocalyptic front pages), adding that "defending every line of welfare spending isn't credible in the current economic environment." In arguing for the changes, Mr Osborne will cite Treasury figures showing that a working couple with two children will be more than £400 better off each year, while most households will benefit to some degree. Helpfully, the British Chamber of Commerce have given George some covering fire - they say that Britain is out of recession, will avoid a triple-dip, and that the weak pound is starting to provide a boost to exports.

As Patrick Wintour points out in the Guardian, the Chancellor is convinced that "making work pay" is not just good economics, but good politics too. Labour's defence of those reliant on state benefits may play well in its heartlands, but will have little resonance in a hard-pushed middle England. The Labour response so far has concentrated on seeking to contrast benefits cut with the cut to the very top rate of income tax coming into effect, but it's a strategy that hasn't gained traction in any of its appearances to date. Worse still, it leaves Labour arguing the case for a moral equivalence between cuts to taxes and benefits, a dangerous path at a time when the Coalition's policy on raising the tax threshold is polling strongly.

It would be a different story if the minimum wage were cut. As we report, that's now a possibility, in real terms at least. The Low Pay Commission, which sets the minimum wage, must now consider its impact on "employment and the economy" before agreeing future increases, a result of changes being made to its terms of reference. No matter how low the minimum wage goes, however, chances are Iain Duncan Smith could live on it. The intrepid Work and Pensions Secretary told the BBC yesterday that he could get by on £53 a week if need be. As Dan Hannan writes in the Mail, the degree of outrage faced by IDS and friends does not tally with the relatively modest extent of the changes to working age benefits:

"Do you suppose that increasing benefits by 2.2 per cent, as Labour had planned, rather than by one per cent, would tackle these underlying problems? Surely the real measure of a successful welfare policy is that bills fall as poverty is reduced...A Conservative approach is being tried, and not before time. The alleviation of poverty is altogether too important to be left to the Left."

WE'RE ON THE ROAD TO NEWPORT

It's clearly time for Plan V. The Business Secretary has been banging the drum for new infrastructure spending for some time now, and will be rewarded by an announcement of an additional spend of £3bn a year in June's Spending Review, the Times (£) reports. The money will back some crowd pleasing measures, not least a new toll road south of Newport. The route, intended to relieve congestion on the M4 which runs above the city, will be completed in 2031 and will cost £830m with the Government acting as a guarantor of loans taken by construction firms. In addition, plans are also being devised to improve the A1 near Berwick-Upon-Tweed, the A47 in Norfolk, and the A303 near Stonehenge. Our generation's Hoover Dams have certainly impressed the paper's leader:

"Infrastructure spending is not expedient for a boost in short-term demand and will not in any case have that effect. nIts purpose is to make the economy work better for the long term. The model of charging for new roads is, moreover, good economics that should be extended."

FRANCE AND GERMANY REJECT EU REVIEW

When Dave gave his EU speech earlier this year, the emphasis was on reform in partnership with other member states. The British unilateral renegotiation was intended as a last resort. Unfortunately, France and Germany are not playing ball. A report in the FT (£) this morning indicates that Paris and Berlin have rejected an invitation from the Foreign Office to participate in a "balance of competences" study examining which powers ought to flow back from Brussels. A French diplomat tells the paper that this is a "British domestic political exercise". Fair to say we're a little way from a grand alliance at the moment, then.

TORIES BRACED FOR COUNCIL CHAOS

Grant Shapps expects the Conservatives to lose around 500 seats in May's English (and one Welsh) council elections, the Guardian reports. The situation is not helped by the fact that the party are defending one of their most succesful local government campaigns post-war. In 2009, they polled 44pc of the vote to Labour's 13pc, as the latter were mired in the midst of the banking collapse. That said, the seats are in true blue terrain (Buckinghamshire, for instance, has been in Tory hands for a century), and Labour is anticipating only a more modest 200 seat gain. CCHQ would be delighted with that. As one Cabinet minister tells the paper, "terrible will be a great result for us".

BURNHAM BACKS RESTRICTIONS ON HEALTH TOURISM

Andy Burnham's interview with the forthcoming Fabian Review is reproduced in today's Telegraph. It tells the sad story behind his grandmother's engagement ring which had been stolen while she was under NHS care, it also reveals plenty of common ground with Jeremy Hunt. Mr Burnham says he "take[s] a pretty tough line" on migrant's access to healthcare, with the exception of emergency treatment, and adds that he found the fact that the benefits system allows the repatriation of child benefit paid to immigrants with children who live abroad "indefensible on the doorstep" at the last election. "We've got to move away from saying that it's too hard to change" on benefits, he adds. Mr Burnham goes on to talk about his failed campaign for the Labour leadership. Continue in this vein and he will have a decent shot at the Tory top job.

GRAYLING INVITES LABOUR TO JOIN FORCES OVER QATADA

With the Lib Dems vowing to fight even a modest change to Britain's human rights laws, Chris Grayling has reached out to Labour to "join forces" to ensure the extradition of Abu Qatada in an article in the Mail. Arguing that a man who "so obviously despises what we stand for" should not be saved from deportation by human rights laws, Mr Grayling invites Labour to back a Tory legislative initiative to amend the Human Rights Act. Ball in your court, Ed.

BLOW FOR SALMOND AS MURDOCH BACKS UNION

It may be the Scottish Sun wot loses it for Alex Salmond. TheIndependent reports that Rupert Murdoch's Scottish titles will not back a yes vote on independence despite his close relationship with the SNP leader who he has described as "the most brilliant politician in the UK". Brilliant, maybe, but clearly still not good enough.

MURPHY RECONSIDERS BALLS ON HIS BACK

Good news, sports fans. Ed Balls will compete in the London Marathon this year, attempting to beat last year's time of five hours 31 minutes. AsEphraim Hardcastle reports, Jim Murphy, who had said that he could beat Ed's time last year with "Balls on my back" may not now be able to carry him, as he has suffered a double leg injury while training for the event. 

CAMERON'S EWE TURN WINS PRAISE

How's this for an endorsement? "I can't imagine any other Prime Minister doing something like that. David Cameron was soaking wet and covered in mud." Julian Tustian is referring, of course, to Dave's courageous rescue of a drowning sheep near Chipping Norton. The animal's owner tells the Sun, "he seems quite fond of sheep. I do think he could be a farmer and hold his own with a flock of sheep." If herding cats in the Commons doesn't work out...

TWEETS AND TWITS

BBC Parliament's 1983 election retrospective brings fond memories for David Jones:

@DavidJonesMP: "Remember #election1983 v well. Walked up hill and down dale in support of Sir Wyn Roberts. And there are lots of hills and dales in Conwy."

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph

Philip Johnston - Parliament has become the enemy of free speech

Paul Goodman - Does religion still have a place in today's politics?

Jill Kirby - Prison isn't working for Huhne, or for us

Telegraph View - It can be healthy to profit from the state

Best of the Rest

Hugo Rifkind in The Times (£) - Ed's ignoring the elephant in the room

Dominic Lawson in The Independent - There's something Churchillian about Boris Johnson. On the other hand...

Ross Clark in the Daily Express - NUT is being idiotic about Mr Gove's curriculum reform

Janan Ganesh in the FT (£) - Conservatives ignore signs in their rush for the exit

THE AGENDA

Today: National Union of Teachers (NUT) annual conference. BT Convention Centre, Liverpool.

09:30 am: Bank of England publishes its money and credit report for February. 

David Miliband's departure..

Good morning. He couldn't resist one parting shot. David Miliband's resignation interview contained the nugget that he still considered his brother to be "a long climb" away from Number 10. Having clearly decided, in the light of generally positive media coverage, that he should resign more often, Mili D also refused to rule out a comeback insisting that he would not seek American citizenship. AsMichael Deacon writes, North London took the news badly - "outside his Georgian terraced house in London’s Primrose Hill, a day-long vigil for the People’s Miliband was held by hundreds of distraught fans, each clutching a tear-stained banana" - but has British public life lost an intellectual colossus or a "greedy failure in a cosmic sulk"? Peter Obornehas no doubts: 

"During his short, undistinguished career, Mr Miliband has done grave damage to British politics. He is part of the new governing elite which is sucking the heart out of our representative democracy while enriching itself in the process. He may be mourned in the BBC and in north London, but the rest of us are entitled to form a more realistic view. David Miliband has belittled our politics and he will not be missed."

There is some speculation that Mr Miliband's jump stateside could lead to a role in a Hilary Clinton run White House, given the regard with which he is held in her circle. "What price David Miliband in a senior role in the White House and Ed Miliband in No 10?" asks the Mail. "Stranger things have happened in politics. But none that come quickly to mind." In Britain, however, life goes on. The Guardian reports that the Labourassociation in South Shields is keen on a local candidate next time, although a donkey in a red rosette ought to be able to defend his 11,109 (30.4pc) strong majority. With that in mind, the real question come polling day might be whether Ukip can continue to make headway in the north, as well as in lapsed Tory heartland seats. 

And what for Labour? Reading the runes, a number of commentators including the Sun's Trevor Kavanagh call the end of the New Labour project, arguing that under Ed, "it has been left to pro-Blair outriders such as [Telegraph] blogger Dan Hodges to argue for a coherent Labour policy on spending and borrowing". But as Philip Collins in the Times (£) notes, this resignation was not a gesture of political despair so much as it was about fratricide and the frustration of watching Ed having a "good scandal" over phone hacking and cementing his leadership. It may be a personal tragedy, but Mili D's departure is hardly an ideological earthquake for the Labour paty.

HOUSEKEEPING

The Morning Briefing is taking the weekend off. Back Tuesday. Happy Easter to all subscribers.

 

TREASURY CALLS FOR POST-2015 SPENDING BLITZ

 

If you're starting to lose track of the belt-tightening due post-2015, I don't blame you. A private letter to ministers from Danny Alexander last night suggests that for the Treasury to achieve its Budget savings target of £11.5bn in 2015/16, a chop of up to 10pc for every non-ringfenced department will be required, we report. While the exact distribution of the cuts will not be settled until June, they will fall on departmental resource budgets, not on the welfare system. The Independent reports that the 10pc reduction will apply to every non-protected department other than defence, which will only need to cut 5pc. 

 

Sounds like a case for the National Union of Ministers? Steady. As theGuardian explains, the 10pc figure is there simply to give the Government "options", and a cut of that size in every targeted budget would save £3bn more than is planned. What stays and what goes will not be known until the publication of the spending review for 2015/16, and as Vince Cable has made known, that is very much a temporary document holding place until the next government is decided. As the Chancellor kept insisting in the Budget, Britain may be open to business, but with an outlook this cloudy, who would want to invest?

BUDDY, CAN YOU SPARE ME A DUCK HOUSE?

An MP's lot has not been a happy one since the expenses scandal, certainly according to Karl McCartney. As we report, the MP for Lincoln told World at One that he had been forced to max out his credit cards, drain his loan facility at the bank and borrow money from his parents because of the intransigence of the Commons expenses body Ipsa. Mr McCartney claimed that he was owed £25,000 by August 2010 after being returned in May. He claims to have been told that this is because when the "senior management team at Ipsa...go to the pub on a Friday night and meet with their friends, their friends tell them that they should screw MPs into the ground." All sounds very bitter to me.

OVER EXPENSIVE, OVER PROTECTED AND OVER HERE

Theresa May's recent rise to prominence as an action woman received a setback yesterday. The decision of the High Court to back the November decision of the Special Immigration Appeals Commission to prevent his deportation came despite the acknowledgement that the UK regarded him as "a danger to national security". A rigid interpretation of human rights rulings in favour of Qatada is bound to re-0pen the Tory debate on scrapping the measures. But at the moment, it's difficult to see how Mrs May can win given judicial intransigence. As the Mail puts it, "it is Qatada holding all the aces in a game Mrs May – and this country – really cannot afford to lose."

RESIDENTS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!

Worried about the forthcoming spare-room subsidy ending / bedroom tax beginning? Well Frank Field has a cunning plan: knock down the walls and brick up the windows, as the landlords did in the Nine Years' War to avoid the Window Tax. His rallying cry in the Independent comes with stern criticism of the "grossly unfair" reduction in housing benefit for under-occupancy. A glance at history might tell the protesters anticipated at demonstrations tomorrow not to be too hopeful - the universally despised window tax lasted a mere 156 years before its repeal.

THE BIG THAW

No, not the weather, but council tax bills. As we report, households are having to pay the largest increase in council tax for three years after 39pc of local authorities rejected Eric Pickles' offer to provide funding for a rate freeze. The average bill in England will increase by 0.8pc this year, and London council tax will fall by 0.2pc. Pity the residents ofBreckland in Norfolk, though. Their council tax is up 7.6pc. 

EU'RE GETTING GREEDY

How's that European austerity thing going, then? According to the BBC, the Government is battling EU demands for a further £9.5bn in member state contributions to cover its expenses this year. The UK's share would amount to slightly over £1bn. Mind you, Eurocrats argue that they are not being unreasonable - if Britain's domestic overspend was only £9.5bn a year, we'd think we'd done very well.

BANKING ON IT TURNING OUT RIGHT

The Bank of England's demand yesterday that British lenders stockpile an additional £25bn in reserves did not spook the market - the figure had been expected to be larger. It won't help get lending going again, however, and as such it conflicts directly with the Chancellor's courageous attempt to provide liquidity to sub-prime borrowers in his recent Budget. As the Mail reports, it has certainly made Vince Cable very grumpy. "The idea that banks should be forced to raise new capital during a period of recession is an erroneous one," he said, adding that ‘the FPC exercise will prolong the time it takes for the British economy to recover by further depressing already weak lending [to small and medium-sized businesses]. "

SAM CAM IN SYRIA

The Prime Minister's wife has visited Syrian refugees in Lebanon on a trip with the charity Save the Children aiming to boost awareness of the plight of those in the camps. "It's so shocking, it's difficult to take it in. You just can't imagine why that would happen," she added. The tales she will have heard will stay with her for a very long time, as I wrote when I returned from a similar trip earlier this month.

TWEETS AND TWITS

Two different takes on recess. First from Kerry McCarthy:

@KerryMP: "Just leaving Commons office after a triple-birthday lunch with current & former researchers then 6 hour blitz on emails. #recessnotholiday"

Then from Tom Harris:

@TomHarrisMP: "Ah, that sweet, lethal (and oddly sexy) combination of @carolynharris, Rioja and karaoke. Easter recess has begun!"

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph

Peter Oborne - David Miliband a colossus? He's a greedy failure in a cosmic sulk

Sue Cameron - A high price for getting ministers out of a hole

Laura Perrins - Stay-at-home mothers deserve some respect

Telegraph view - Ministers shouldn't play happy families

Best of the Rest

Philip Collins in The Times (£) - Don't bury New Labour along with Miliband

Steve Richards in The Independent - David Miliband's dignified exit does everyone a favour - including him

Trevor Kavanagh in The Sun - New Labour bunch have split for good

Chris Giles in the FT (£) - How to 'plog' the hole in our awful public finances

THE AGENDA

Today: Energy Secretary Ed Davey, Business Secretary Vince Cable and Scotland Secretary Michael Moore to publish the oil and gas sector strategy.

09:00 am: Nick Clegg call-in on LBC 97.3.

12:00 pm: BBC strike. Journalists and technicians at the BBC stage a 12-hour strike in disputes over job cuts and workload.

David Miliband is go..

Good morning. In my office I have one of those life-sized cut outs of David Miliband holding a banana that I borrowed from the Tory press office in Manchester back in 2008. He's followed me from the Burma Road to Telegraph Towers and I'm quite attached to him. What do I do now? Mili D's decision to chuck it in and head for New York is a blow to his followers in the Labour party who nurtured a diminishing hope that he might yet find a place in Labour's high command and maybe even the top job that he tried and failed to win. There will be plenty of analysis of what his departure says about the state of his brother's credibility. In hisover-long letter announcing his plan to resign at some unspecified point, he says keeping the Coalition to one term is "achievable", hardly a sure bet. He doesn't say Labour will win or his brother will be PM.

David M has confirmed what Westminster knew the minute the leadership result was announced: that he was finished as a leadership contender. Losers don't get a second chance in our politics. It was his misfortune to be beaten by his brother, which excluded any possibility of an elder statesman role that might otherwise have been available to him. Peter Mandelson tried to keep the comeback option open last night, but that's fantasy. He's gone and free. Rather than "what if", we should be asking "what now" for his brother. At one level, it will be a relief to EdMil and those around him. Was he consulted in advance I wonder? But the likely impact is bound to be negative: it will be taken as a vote of no confidence not just in the chances of a Labour victory, but in the capacity of the Ed Mil project to accommodate the Labour modernisers of the Blairite wing. That should worry the party.

Labour are putting a brave face on Mili D's decision to accept a position at the International Rescue Committee.  Tessa Jowell has told the Today programme that "this is not any old job. This will be a channel for all his passion". She added that "this is a way of moving on from what is the legitimate fascination of [the brothers'] relationship." Ed is also being quotes as saying that British politics is a "poorer place" without his brother. "As for us, we went through a difficult leadership contest but time has helped to heal that. I will miss him. But although he is moving to America, I know he will always be there to offer support and advice when I need it," he said. In a Guardian blog, Nicholas Watt adds that David's connections insist that "he is not going to be the prince over the water. He is not going to come back to run Labour. That has gone." Meanwhile, over at the New Statesman, Rafael Behr puts it most starkly of all:

"Whatever happens, it has been clear for some time that the next act in the Labour drama was being written without a starring role for David Miliband and he knew it. Since he had no lines in the script, no rousing soliloquies to deliver, he has sensibly chosen to leave the stage."

HE'S NOT THE MESSIAH, HE'S A VERY NAUGHTY BORIS

Boris' hagiography on BBC2 earlier this week overlooked one significant talent - his singing. Bo-Jo treated Michael Deacon to a stirring rendition of Bob Marley's Three Little Birds while launching a busking competition yesterday. On this evidence, perhaps he shouldn't give up the day job. Then again, perhaps he should. Michael Gove's wife is certainly of that view. Writing in the Times (£), Sarah Vine writes that while Boris is not a nasty piece of work, "his bluff exterior belies a single-minded ambition: succeed at everything and anything. As someone close to him once remarked as we watched him thrashing our seven-year-old sons at football, he does hate to lose". However, "Johnson's real enemy is not himself but the way others perceive him...Tories who erroneouslybelieve that a) all the party needs to do to get a majority at the next election is be more like Ukip (they tried that in 2005 and look how well that went) and b) that Johnson would be the man to make this happen (he lives in Islington, remember?)". The verdict? "He's not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy." Biting. After Michael raged at Theresa May in Cabinet and now Sarah has taken down Boris, it must be reassuring for Dave to know that however bad things get, he'll always have the Goves.

MAY GAMBLES ON UKBA

"Political suicide - or a passport to the top of the Tory party?" asks theIndependent on news that Theresa May has ordered the scrapping of the UK Borders Agency in the same week that it emerged there was now a 24 year backlog of cases. As we report, the former UKBA will be split in two, with one part dealing with immigration and visas, the other with immigration law enforcement. It's certainly an audacious move, although as James Kirkup argues on Telegraph Blogs, it could also be seen as having the Home Office's new permanent secretary Mark Sedwill's fingerprints all over it.

The stakes are high. Succeed, and Mrs May will have shown an ability to oversee radical and complex institutional change in an area which matters to voters. Fail, and she will be seen as too ambitious, too insubstantial in her planning. One way or another, this will form a large part of her legacy. Speaking of Mrs May's legacy, another piece of that particular puzzle is due at 11:30 this morning in the Royal Courts of Justice. Abu Qatada, should he stay or should he go? The electorate's view is pretty plain. Now let's see what the judges think.

LOUGHTON TWITTER WAR DRAGS ON

The ongoing digital war of words between Tim Loughton and the ToryEducation Twitter account believed to be controlled by Michael Gove's advisers continued unabated yesterday (unless anything is deleted this morning, you can see the latest exchange here). The brinkmanship on both sides is brave, but is it wise? It's difficult to see who benefits from the mutual determination to air dirty washing in public. Until the identity of the ToryEducation tweeters is formally disclosed, it's also an unfair fight. The Independent reports that the latest spat has increased the pressure on the Cabinet Office to launch an investigation, but they are unwilling to do so without evidence that someone connected with DfE has broken the Special Advisers Code, evidence which wouldn't be forthcoming without an initial investigation...

HANCOCK INVESTIGATED

Mike Hancock has said that he "vigorously denies" allegations that he sexually assaulted a constituent, the Mirror reports. Both the Lib Dems and Portsmouth Council have launched investigations following allegations that a female constituent was subjected to "upsetting sexual treatment". Given Lib Dem sensitivities following accusations of internal failures to act over Lord Rennard, expect them to come down hard if they do detect wrong-doing. And you know what that would mean. Another Lib Dem v Tory by-election battle, albeit in a reasonably safe Lib Dem seat with a majority of 5,200 or 12.6pc.

CABLE CALL

Half of Lib Dem party activists are dissatisfied with Nick Clegg's leadership, a rise of 9pts since December, according to a Lib Dem Voice poll reported in the Independent. Mr Clegg satisfies only 46pc with his leadership, with an approval rating of +2pts, by contrast Vince Cable's personal rating stands at +70pts. It's not all bad news though, 78pc still back the Coalition. Whether the Tories feel the same after watching Mr Clegg ring in the Easter recess at DPMQs yesterday is a moot point.Quentin Letts felt they must have been rather agog: "the world watched in marvel. So useless, yet so pleased with himself!"

TAX BREAK FOR EMPLOYEE OWNERSHIP

This morning Nick Clegg will announce tax breaks for bosses who sell a portion of their companies to their workforce, the Independent reports. Funding will be provided from a £50m pot which will be used to offset some of the capital gains tax liability. The tax payer will not be liable for losses suffered by depositors in UK branches of Cyprus Popular Bank, though, the FT (£) reports. Speaking yesterday at the Treasury Select Committee, the Chancellor suggested that the four UK branches of the bank may be taken over instead.

NUCLEAR DETERRENT

Not only are Britain's new nuclear power stations now going to arrive five years late (16GW of production now due 2030, not 2025), but Hinkley is already £4bn or 40pc over-budget, we reveal this morning. The Nuclear Industrial Strategy report launched by Vince Cable yesterday means that Britain will be reliant on gas imports for most of the decade prior to the nuclear plants coming on-stream. However, without a strike price for electricity agreed, or any partners on-board for EDF, even these timings are prone to slippage. If they do, we really could be staring at black-out Britain. As the Energy Select Committee warned last year, there is no Plan B.

To a large extent, this is an entirely self-inflicted problem. Environmental targets have dictated energy policy and led to the mothballing of productive, but Carbon heavy, plants. As we report, the Government's green energy savings offered in recompense are not all they appear to be. Unless households have both the money and inclination to buy substantial amounts of new kit, they are likely to be net losers thanks to higher energy prices. At a time of squeezed living standards, that is not perhaps the help on energy which households are looking for. As Christopher Booker writes in the Mail:

"Nothing better illustrates the insanity of the shambles our politicians have led us into than the fact that, just when we are closing down our coal-fired power stations in the hope of saving the planet, the Chinese are building 363 more of them, the Indians a further 455 and even the Germans another 20 - adding far more CO² to the world's atmosphere every week than Britain puts out in a year."

HUNT ANNOUNCES NHS OVERHAUL

Jeremy Hunt confirmed yesterday that, in a bid to avoid anotheroccurrence of the dreadful neglect at Mid Staffs, there would be a new "whistleblower-in-chief", a culture of "zero harm", and nurses would need to spend a year as healthcare assistants before qualifying. As Michael Deacon explains, the Health Secretary believes this will make them more compassionate, although "it’s not yet clear how this increase in compassion will be measured, or how the Government will update the House. ('Mr Speaker, figures show that NHS wards are 12 per cent kinder year-on-year. The average nurse became 10.2 per cent more sympathetic in the second quarter of 2013, and a further six per cent rise in human decency is forecast by Christmas.')"

PICKLES DEFENDS PLANNING CHANGES

Are today's planning reforms the end of England's green and pleasant land? Not at all, writes Eric Pickles. "Our reforms safeguard our glorious green spaces and countryside. They protect the Green Belt," he argues, adding, "no-one who loves our idyllic and precious English countryside wants to see the sword of Damocles hanging over it. Myself included." 

REES-MOGG BATTLES ROYAL CHARTER

The fight goes on. Writing for us, Jacob Rees-Mogg identifies the reasons to worry about the Royal Charter solution to press regulation following a Lords amendment to the Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Bill last week. Firstly, " it could protect an unreasonable regulator from being removed". Secondly, "it bolsters a royal charter that is already a powerful instrument". Don't worry, Rees-Mogg fans, we're soon into a discussion of seditious libel in 1764. It's well worth a read here.

BENEFITS IN-KIND SHIFT

Talk last year that benefits recipients may be given handouts in a form which they are unable to spend on products such as tobacco and alcohol seems to have led to action at  a local level. The Guardian reports that from next month many councils will replace emergency cash loans with a one-off voucher redeemable for approved goods like food and nappies. Plans at other councils include a shift to in-kind support such as food parcels.

TWEETS AND TWITS

A pitiless take on his party's intellectual leadership from Austin Mitchell:

@AVMitchell2010: "Millidee.A party where people read essays and call them speeches will miss his brutal brain power."

TOP COMMENT 

In the Telegraph

Mary Riddell - Our NHS is in intensive care, and Labour's treatment has to be bold

Jacob Rees-Mogg - The press must resist this assault on liberty

Allister Heath - Stamp duty is bad for jobs and growth and it needs to be abolished

Telegraph View - No sign yet of a health service turning point

Best of the Rest

Simon Jenkins in the Guardian - Unlike most Tory reforms, the impact of this is forever

Daniel Finkelstein in the Times (£) - It's pro-immigrant to control our borders

Christopher Booker in the Daily Mail - What planet are they living on?

Matthew Norman in the Independent - Boris would be a disastrous PM. So why do I quite like the idea?

THE AGENDA

Today: House of Commons in recess.

09:30 am: Final estimate of Q4 GDP is published by the Office for National Statistics.

09:45 am: Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg speech on employee ownership. Law Society, Chancery Lane.

09:45 am: Francis Maude speech on cyber security. venue to be confirmed.

10:00 am: Skills minister Matthew Hancock speech to Resolution Foundation on low pay. Resolution Foundation, 23 Savile Row.

11:30 am: Abu Qatada ruling. Home Secretary Theresa May finds out if she has won her Court of Appeal bid to overturn a decision allowing radical preacher Abu Qatada to stay in the UK. The Royal Courts of Justice.

Immigration launch falls flat..

Good morning. Downing Street's big immigration announcement went down with a bit of a whimper yesterday. Perhaps it was the fact that it followed major announcements along the same lines by Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband, but rather than break new ground, it seemed to nod politely to what the Times (£) leader terms "a political consensus...over immigration". The fact that the numbers involved are getting kicked around this morning won't help. In the Guardian, Nicholas Watt reports that Number 10 have had to scramble to defend the impact of the scheme. Of two million net immigrants to the UK from the eight eastern European countries that joined in 2004, only 13,000 have claimed jobseekers allowance, hardly the endemic culture of "something for nothing" which Dave spoke about. Jeremy Hunt's attempt to help, claiming that hospital accident and emergency rooms were being "clogged up" by foreign nationals, floundered for want of empirical evidence as the FT (£) points out. When an anti-immigrant benefits policy is dismissed by the Mail as "smoke and mirrors", you know something has gone badly wrong with the delivery. It's almost as if the scheme was not submitted to any political scrutiny.

It is not just the launch which could prove problematic, it's the legality. A basic tenent of EU law is that member states may not discriminate against citizens of other member states by giving their own citizens preference. The Express points out that such discrimination is at the heart of these proposals. Whatever formulation has been found to evade them, the government will still need to be prepared to defend its position in a European court system which is not known for its acquiescence to British exceptionalism. As our leader puts it, immigration policy is the art of the possible, and furthermore "as ministers treat immigration as a matter of profit and loss, rather than the cause of often wrenching social change, they will never be able fully to address the grievances it causes."
Any failure to fire from Number 10 inevitably raises leadership talk. As I write in my column today, this talk is now so frequent, so all-pervasive that it has given Dave's premiership a dead-duck feel. The class of 2010 are on his case (also true of the Labour party argues Damian McBride, although he believes they will peak at Cabinet level), and the pressure is now on Dave to fashion a narrative around which he can rebuild his leadership:
"The task of repairing the country demands resilience, imagination, steel and the ability to give a straight answer when asked. Mr Cameron, we should point out, has at times exhibited all those qualities. But he has been eroded by events and poor choices. Unless he can win back his party’s attention, the search for his successor will only intensify."
BORIS PRAISES HIS "KICKING"
When all else fails, it's nice to be able to rely on your father. Stanley Johnson comes out swinging in the Sun this morning (not online), arguing that "Eddie Mair's interview with my son was a disgusting piece of journalism and the BBC should be ashamed." Boris himself was magnanimous, telling us that it is the "function of BBC journalists to bash up politicians, particularly people like me." It's a time of saturation coverage for the Mayor. He was the subject of a BBC2 documentary by Michael Cockerell titled "The Irresistible Rise" last night. Our reviewer salutes a man who is "TV gold", adding that "at a time when all other politicians are about as lapel-grabbing as the Emmerdale omnibus, he could make a fortune on pay per view." Boris-gazing abounds elsewhere. Steve Richards writes in the Independent that he will always be the leadership bridesmaid, never the bride thanks to the rule that "a leader-in-waiting will be kept waiting". In the Times (£) Hugo Rifkind argues that "Boris is the direction in which our politics is going, and it's really not all bad. Unless he actually does become Prime Minister, of course. Then it is." As Michael Deacon writes, perhaps the biggest winner from this episode in the present incumbent in Number 10:
"A smile of immense satisfaction spread across Mr Cameron’s face. 'Never underestimate the ability of Boris to get out of a tight spot,' he beamed."
"Nor, he resisted adding, the ability of Boris to get into one."

CYPRUS SPREE SETS DEPOSITORS ON EDGE
The principle which the FT (£) sees as having been established in Cyprus - that it is investors not governments who now bear the greatest liability in the eurozone - is still being digested by the markets. As the Mail points out, attempts to suggest that the eurozone had no specific template and was making decisions on an ad-hoc basis by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the eurozone's finance ministers, reassured nobody. Nor did the irony of Germany's Bundestag receiving a vote on the bail-out but not the Cypriot parliament. Writing for us, Nigel Farage argues that the sole bright-spot of the debacle may be a resurgent interest in self-determination in Europe:
"In Cyprus we have a population that would prefer to leave the eurozone than comply with the privations of Germany and Brussels. We have a parliament that has already voted down one scheme, and is thus barred from debating this one. We have a Cypriot archbishop who supports his people rather than the EU. They are not happy and they are pointing to a new reality."
While that new reality takes hold, we are left with what Max Hastings calls "one of the nastiest and most immoral political acts in modern times". A domestic issue raised by the Mail's leader is whether the IMF ought to be encouraging European integration or whether its "purely economic brief" should have forced it to re-examine the case for Cyprus remaining in the single currency. Given our sizable contribution to the IMF, it is also a question which backbench Tories may soon find themselves asking, too. The FT (£) argues that "no other package of policies would be better than this", but with yesterday evening's announcement that all banks would remain closed until Thursday, normality is still nowhere in sight.
THE UNLIKELY COUPLE
The Mail is distinctly unimpressed to learn that William Hague and Angelina Jolie are in Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo asking local politicians to campaign against sexual violence at times of war. "The euro is in crisis, so what is our Foreign Secretary doing in Rwanda with Angelina Jolie?" it asks, not unreasonably. On our Wonder Women website, Cathy Newman, who is travelling with the pair, says she will be grilling them over what they can realistically achieve over the coming days. Watch this space.
NURSES TO TRAIN FOR A YEAR
Jeremy Hunt has insisted that "hands-on caring experience and values need to be equal with academic training" as he announced last night that nurses undergo at least one year's training in basic care. As we report, the Government will formally respond today to the recommendations of the Francis Inquiry, but the pre-announcement of minimum practical training standards suggests that a greater emphasis on practical experience will be at the heart of any new system.
GOVE LOSES CONFIDENCE VOTE
The Association of Teachers and Lecturers has condemned the Education Secretary and Ofsted's chief inspector Sir Michael Wilshaw in the first vote of no confidence in its history. As the Mail reports, the general secretary Dr Mary Bousted earlier told the conference that the pair are like "blood brothers, with a pact to suck life and hope out of our educational system". And to think, this is a union at the moderate end of the spectrum.
SNOW PUTS RECOVERY HOPES ON ICE
There's nothing like getting your excuses in early. The never-ending winter may tip the economy into a triple dip recession when the figures for the first three months of the year are published, according to the Guardian. Blizzards in December were blamed for a 0.5pc drop in quarterly output with Samuel Tombs from Capital Economics telling the paper that high street spending may be down as much as 1pc. Expectations are not high this year (as low as 0.6pc to be precise), but beginning 2013 with another recession hardly bodes well. Fortunately for the Chancellor, even Labour voters do not trust his opposite number on the economy. A ComRes poll for the Independent found that 35pc of Labour voters do not trust the Eds on the economy, their overall approval rating on economic affairs is -40pts and only 32pc blame the Coalition for the current mess.
COUNCILS FEAR THE WORST
A survey of 81 councils by the Guardian finds that almost half plan cuts to care services for adults, more than half plan cuts to children's services, two-thirds plan cuts to culture and sport and 75pc will cut planning in the year ahead. However, the figures should be qualified by noting that the national spend on adult social care and children's services will rise. Elsewhere in the paper, campaigners argue that cutting planning budgets could lead to a free-for-all for developers. Nick Boles will be delighted.
AID: THE CASE FOR RADICALISM
Tony Blair's former adviser Sir Michael Barber has just returned from a three year stint in Pakistan and sets out his case for aid radicalism and rigour in a paper for Reform published today. In an article on our website, Sir Michael argues that an effective budget spend means ultimately that aid projects can be withdrawn: "The more effectively we spend the current UK budget of around £10 billion per year, the sooner it can diminish for the right reasons. That should be the aim."
TWEETS AND TWITS

A proud Robert Halfon sees his constituency blaze a trail:

@halforn4harlowMP: "Am I dreaming or is BBC Six O Clock News saying that triangle flap jacks have been banned from an Essex school for safety reasons!!!!!!!"
TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph

Benedict Brogan - Pity our poor PM - the Tories are now in a post-Dave state of mind
Nigel Farage - This is all about saving the euro, not Cyprus
Tom Rowley & Auslan Cramb - Welcome to blackout Britain
Telegraph View - Immigration and the limits of the possible
Best of the Rest

Steve Richards in The Independent - Boris is leader in waiting. He'll never be leader
Rachel Sylvester in The Times (£) - Old Labour rears its rebellious head again
Max Hastings in the Daily Mail - One of the nastiest and most immoral political acts in modern times
Polly Toynbee in The Guardian - Labour needs to recapture the spirit and nerve of 1945
THE AGENDA

09:30 am: Cabinet. 10 Downing Street, London.
09:30 am: Justice Minister Helen Grant gives evidence to Commons Justice Committee on women offenders. Wilson Room, Portcullis House.
10:00 am: The Office for Budget Responsibility gives evidence to the Commons Treasury Committee on the Budget. Grimond Room, Portcullis House.
10:50 am: Boris Johnson and Misha B launch Gigs 2013, an annual busking music competition. London Bridge Tube Station (just inside Tooley Street entrance).
11:30 am: Business Secretary Vince Cable gives evidence to Commons Business Committee on Kay Review of equity markets. Committee Room 8, House of Commons.
02:15 pm: Chancellor George Osborne gives evidence to the Commons Treasury Committee on the Budget. Thatcher Room, Portcullis House.

02:30 pm: Martha Lane Fox introduced in the Lords. E-commerce pioneer Martha Lane Fox will be introduced as a non-political peer, taking the title Baroness Lane-Fox of Soho. Composer and broadcaster Michael Berkeley will also take his seat. House of Lords.

03:00 pm: Environment Secretary Owen Paterson gives evidence to the Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee on flood funding. Committee Room 8, House of Commons.

03:00 pm: UK Border Agency gives evidence to the Commons Home Affairs Committee. Grimond Room, Portcullis House.