Thursday, 22 November 2012


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A defining day for Cameron..



Dave arrived in Brussels this morning ready to embark on a two day budget summit with other EU leaders. At PMQs yesterday, Ed Miliband appeared to be impatient with Dave for not solving the Israel-Palestine crisis. With a 17-10 split among member states, and the majority opposing a budget freeze, the problem the Prime Minister faces appears no less intractable. Squeezed at home by Tory rebels and Ed's apparently random European policy, the Prime Minister will be squeezed abroad by the smaller recipient nations and the large and problematic beneficiary bloc of France and Italy. He has strong allies in Sweden and the Netherlands, plus a German partner who would prefer a budget freeze but would rather the whole issue was simply off the table, as the Times(£) sets out. Even if a budget freeze is achieved, Britain's net contribution may rise, given there is now talk of an £805m rebate cut (Sun storyhere). Roland Watson in the Times (£) argues the Prime Minister is especially watchful because he knows a false mood will lead set the Tory troops on the path to the in/our referendum he would rather avoid in the next parliament. In his Telegraph column, Peter Oborne argues that Tory Eurosceptics are selfish to use this as an opportunity to pressurise Mr Cameron:
"There is also a moral point here. The situation is very grave.. In these tragic and terrible circumstances, it is surely the job of any British prime minister to rise to the occasion with magnanimity and generosity, not engage in inward-looking conversations about repatriation of powers and the exact size of the British contribution."
Writing in the Times (£), Stephen Dorrell, Richard Ottaway and Alan Beith provide the cross-Coalition consensus view. One way or another, Britain should allow the eurozone countries to solve their problems by "getting out of their way". If only it were that simple. Dave is always at his best when in full-on statesman mode, but this looks likely to be a puzzle eclipsing even his diplomatic prowess.
SECRET COURTS GET PUBLIC PASTING
The Government's Justice and Security Bill was mauled in the Lords last night, with peers voting 264 to 159 to give judges rather than ministers the final decision on the use of closed material in legal cases. Peers also backed a second amendment (273 votes to 173) giving judges discretion over hearing national security cases in secret, rather than having closed trials as the obligatory standard in such cases. After a third substantial defeat, ministers dropped objections to other amendments which effectively make closed proceedings an option of last resort. The Mailsplashes on the story and claims the Government's plans are now in "tatters". If the plans are tattered, the Coalition in the Lords is wearing thin. Last night's defeats were facilitated by a rebellion among the Lib Dem Lords, hardly endearing themselves to their Conservative colleagues after recent sharp practice on boundary reform. Perhaps the writ of the Quad doesn't run to the red benches?
FREE ENTERPRISE GROUP DEMANDS PENSIONER MEANS TESTING
Wealthy pensioners should lose their bus passes, TV licensees and winter fuel allowances as part of the Government's austerity drive, the Free Enterprise Group, which includes 39 Tory MPs, has recommended. TheTelegraph reports that the proposals would affect those with an income of at least £50,000. Under-25's claiming unemployment benefit would also be required to take their benefits in the form of a loan. Chris Skidmore, MP for Kingswood and the report's author conceded that the proposals would be unpopular among one constituency - the House of Lords, where there are 671 members who qualifty for a free TV license at present.
MPS TO RUSH THROUGH GAY MARRIAGE BILL
There will be a vote on gay marriage "within weeks" as ministers who are worried over the momentum of the opposition campaign attempt to fast-track a vote, according to the Mail . It's a decision which would look rushed given there was no announcement of the legislation in the Queen's speech. Even given the opposition of dozens of Tory MPs, the bill in not in any danger of failing, given Lib Dem and Labour support. Possibly the motivation is to show the Government in a softer light after what is sure to be a bruising month ahead, given the EU summit and the likely publication of Leveson (expected next Thursday). At least it will give the new Archbishop of Canterbury something to think about aside from women priests.
GOVE BLASTS LEVESON
While Boris claimed the Spectator's politician of the year award yesterday, he was, for once, thoroughly upstaged. Michael Gove gave a stonking performance as compere, firing barbs at everyone from Ed Miliband to Lord Leveson (transcript available on PoliticsHome (£)), telling guests:
"It's … a pity that His Honour Brian Leveson cannot be here so he could receive the Bureau of Investigative Journalism award for commitment to truth-telling for his wonderful comments: 'I don't really need any lessons in freedom of speech, Mr Gove, really I don't'."
ONS: BLACK HOLE NOW DARKER
Weak tax receipts and sluggish growth have put George Osborne on course to miss his debt and borrowing targets by £13bn this year. TheGuardian reports that despite an austerity drive which has seen spending, er, rise 7.4pc in the year to date, the Government borrowed £2.7bn more than expected in October alone, according to ONS figures published yesterday. Prepare for a focus on the long term in the Autumn Statement, because as things stand, the Chancellor is nowhere close to meeting either fiscal rule by 2015.
DAVE SERMONISES
The Rev. Tony famously "didn't do God" despite being a practicing Christian. Dave's faith is more relaxed, however not only does he "do" God, he tells him off, too. Dave's PMQs admonishment for the Almighty on his approach to employment law confused the Telegraph's Michael Deacon:
"The Prime Minister’s views turned out to be a little bit confusing, to Members of Parliament, to inhabitants of the press gallery, and no doubt to the fowl of the air and to every beast of the field also. And this was because the Prime Minister seemed to be saying that on the one hand we had to respect whatever the Church decided, but on the other hand we had to make sure the Church jolly well did what we told it."
TWEETS AND TWITS
Who can Michael Fabricant mean?:
@Mike_Fabricant: "Some MPs have been told to go on a diet. Just looking at one (who will be nameless) who looks ill. Some people just take it too far! "
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Timothy Garton Ash in The Guardian - Britain stands on a ledge. Europe screams "don't do it"
Stephen Dorrell and Alan Beth in The Times (£) - Our megaphone won't change Europe's course
THE AGENDA 

TODAY: European Council summit to set EU budget for 2014-20. David Cameron expected to arrive around 0800 GMT.
10:00 am: Health minister Anna Soubry and shadow health secretary Andy Burnham address Fitness Industry Association summit. Congress Centre, 28 Great Russell Street.
12:45 pm: Nick Clegg speech to National House Building Council lunch. Followed by Q&A Royal Opera House, WC2E 9DD.
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Wednesday, 21 November 2012


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Conservatives divided on principle in politics..



Modernisers v traditionalists, wets v drys, quants v quals, however you want to phrase it, the Tories are at war with themselves again, this time over the place of principle in politics. Writing in the Telegraph, George Bridges, a former adviser to Mr Cameron, sets it out:
"The mindset of political strategy is now poisoning the well of politics. Those politicians who do have the guts to highlight unpalatable truths, and what they would do about them, are criticised. On Europe, politicians are told that voters don’t care about it – so shut up. Meanwhile, politicians talk of taxing 'wealth' more because of what that would 'say' about their party, not whether it is the right or wrong thing to do."
The Bridges intervention is significant because he's a friend of George Osborne's, and there is speculation among ministers over whether the Chancellor had a say in Mr Crosby's appointment. One I spoke to yesterday wondered if this was a case of Dave putting one over George. In his piece Mr Bridges is in fact complimentary of Mr Crosby. His real target seems to be Andrew Cooper, who continues to be the subject of rumours that he is about to leave No10. While everyone has fun wondering how long it will take Lord Ashcroft to kill off Mr Crosby, the issue is what Mr Bridges identifies as an absence of core beliefs in No10.
On the undercard, it's Lord Ashcroft v Lynton Crosby. The Times (£) summarises the contribution of the former deputy party chairman yesterday as "Ashcroft tells Labour how to regain power and picks row with Tory campaign chief", while the Mail also picks up on the "online attack" on Mr Crosby. If one of the reasons why Lord Ashcroft opposed Mr Crosby's appointment in the first place was his worry that there would be too many voices on campaign strategy, he has made it a reality for Mr Crosby very early in his tenure. Still, at least there was good news in his most recent polling exercise. As the Mail reports, voters still do not trust Labour on the deficit and four in ten switching voters are scared that it will over-tax and over-spend. It's not that the Tories won't have been delighted to see such a detailed piece of polling, but they may have been happier to have seen it in private, rather than available publicly for Labour policy wonks to pore over.
Another poll CCHQ won't want to see out is the one published by ComRes this morning on attitudes to gay marriage. The Mail reports that the party's support for gay marriage will lose them votes both among their base and the wider public. Of the wider electorate, 18 pc are less likely to vote Conservative as a result, as are 36pc of the party's voters at the last election. If this is a policy based on expediency, it is going horribly wrong.
CHEAP FUEL FOR ALL TO...RAISE PRICES FOR ALL
The result of the Prime Minister's intervention in the energy markets could be higher bills accross the board, the Sun reports. Limiting energy companies to four possible tariffs could remove competition, experts warned. With Dave having boasted of a policy which Labour "said couldn't be done", he now faces the uncomfortable prospect of seeing in practice that it, er, couldn't be done. It isn't the only energyshambles he will have to deal with. The ongoing fallout from the Davey / Hayes wind farm row has shaken the Coalition to its roots, Mary Riddell writes in today's Telegraph:
"Some senior Lib Dems...speculate wistfully about how much easier it might be – on this issue if not on others – to be in partnership with Ed Miliband, whom Mr Davey was said to admire during the Labour leader’s time as energy secretary in the Brown government. While Lib Dems respect the Chancellor, much as they may disagree with him on electricity supply, energy policy has unleashed some poisonous exchanges. Peter Lilley, one of John Major’s 'bastards', a strident critic of Lib Dem energy policy and a member of the energy select committee that questioned Mr Davey yesterday, is described by one foe as 'particularly ghastly'."
PENSION PLAN FALLOUT EXPOSES IDEOLOGICAL RIFTS
George's pension contribution limit reduction wheeze was a result of a split between Prime Minister and Chancellor which has exposed the most important divide in the modern Conservative party, Alice Thompson writes in the Times (£). Those who think the rich are fair game are arrayed behind Mr Osborne, while Mr Cameron (ably supported by the database wrecking Eric Pickles) rejects the notion that people who work hard should be taxed more. Hence the compromise on pensions and away from council tax. The Chancellor's pension plan will not only hit the very wealthy, though, as the FT (£) reports. The paper argues that because of the mechanics of pension income calculation, late-career civil servants on as little as £30,000 per year could also be hit. Given how sensitive they are about changes to pension terms, what odds the civil service unions leading the fight against a measure designed to hit the City slickers they can't stand? 
EU BUDGET SET TO CARRY ON REGARDLESS
David Cameron will agree to make a larger net contribution to the EU budget irrespective of the outcome of negotiations in Brussels on Thursday and Friday.The Telegraph puts the prospective figure as high as £560m a year if the British take an offer made by Herman Van Rompuy which would cut the EU's total budget from the figure proposed by the EC, but require the British to hand back a portion of their rebate. Crucially, the move would allow Dave to live up to the letter of his frozen budget pledge - which referred to the EU budget, not the British contribution - even while the UK pays a higher net contribution.The major stumbling block at present is French and Spanish opposition because of cuts to the CAP budget.
 The British negotiating team are said to believe that the eastward expansion of the EU means Britain will have to pay more. The increase would come in the form of a surrendered rebate, which the Guardianreports is consistent with Tony Blair's 2005 promise to reduce the refund over time, and also consistent with CAP spending shrinking in real terms at a time when the rebate is closely related to the CAP level. A budget freeze but a slashed rebate? Good luck taking that to the Commons.
DORRELL IN EXPENSES DEAL
The Telegraph splashes on the revelation that Stephen Dorrell sold his London home to friends who run a chain of care homes before renting it back on expenses. The sense of MPs keeping within the letter, but seldom the spirit of Ipsa rules is becoming eerily familiar. The question is what to do about it? In the Times (£), Danny Finkelstein argues that the present system has been reduced to farce and that MPs need a flat rate allowance for a their second home to dispense with as they please. TheMail's Max Hastings takes a different view:
"No, sir. No, madam — or Ms, if you insist. If you want to devote your life to the manic ego trip that is politics, you need to recognise that you do not automatically qualify for an upper-middle-class lifestyle — which is what MPs are really demanding. Many lack the ability to achieve this in any other trade, so why should the taxpayer give it to them?"
DAVE OUTNUMBERED ON LEVESON
The Prime Minister is facing a backbench rebellion if he rejects the reccomendations of the Leveson report, according to the Times (£). Hints that Dave would reject calls for a state regulator have prompted a group of about 70 MPs to become increasingly vocal in their demands for statutory provision. This doesn't mean a press regulation law is inevitable, as Downing Street could simpoly refuse to introduce it, but it could lead to a series of Commons defeats if Labour tables motions on which they can call a vote.
REFORMING THE  WELFARE STATE
Larger welfare cuts will be needed for the Government to stand a chance of meeting its deficit target, the Reform think tank warns in a new report published today. Existing commitments to health and welfare spending will otherwise obliterate savings made elsewhere, it argues, calling for greater use of private insurance as a way of building an affordable welfare state.
TWEETS AND TWITS
At times, Douglas Carswell can give the impression of being slightly disillusioned. His reply to Michael Fabricant's tweet that "the Iron Dome missile defence system was developed in Israel. It's been effective. 90% of incoming destroyed. Wonder if our Army will buy it?":
@DouglasCarswell: "No. We'll spend 3 times the amount building a supposedly sovereign solution, using 3 non-UK firms, and it'll arrive in 2037"
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Ann Widdecombe in the Daily Express - Freedom of expression is dying out
Daniel Finkelstein in The Times (£) - This system is a farce. Pay MPs a flat rate
Matthew Norman in The Independent - Not sleepwalking, lurching like crazy drunks
Sebastian Mallaby in the FT (£) - Spain is in need of urgent repair
THE AGENDA

09:00 am: Defence Secretary Philip Hammond speaks on value for money in the defence budget at a conference organised by the Reform think tank. KPMG, 15 Canada Square.
09:30 am: Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards takes evidence from George Osborne. Witnesses: Rt Hon George Osborne MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer and Rt Hon Greg Clark MP, Financial Secretary to the Treasury Grimond Room, Portcullis House.
09:30 am: Public sector borrowing figures for October are published by the Office for National Statistics.
10:15 am: Lords Constitution Committee takes evidence from Lord Chancellor Chris Grayling. Committee Room 1, House of Lords.
12:00 pm: Prime Ministers Questions. House of Commons.
02:00 pm: Spectator Magazine's Parliamentarian of the Year Awards. Weekly politics magazine presents awards ceremony. Lancaster Ballroom, The Savoy Hotel, The Strand.
04:30 pm: Lord Heseltine and Chuka Umunna appear at a Social Market Foundation discussion on industrial policy, chaired by Evan Davis. The British Academy,10 Carlton House Terrace.
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Tuesday, 20 November 2012


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Osborne mulls pension raid..



Those of us who have been scratching heads trying to work out how all the excitement about new council tax bands could be reconciled with what George Osborne and Dave have said about more property taxes have what looks like an answer this morning: according to the FT  (£), the Chancellor is going to whack pension contributions for higher earners, apparently by restricting further the amount that can be salted away tax free. The first £50,000 of pension contributions can currently be made from pre-tax income, with tax calculated on the remainder. That allowance could now be reduced, increasing income tax bills if contributions remain unchanged. This makes more sense, in that the Tories are heading for a disaster if they do anything that reverses their recent pledges to keep property snoopers out of Tory homes in the south east. To judge by how much this new scheme raises though, expect more complaints about pointless political gestures to satisfy the Lib Dems when what should be targeted is spending. 
There is also the accusation that Mr Osborne is taking a leaf from Gordon Brown's book of recipes for economic success, as removing tax credits on dividends in pension schemes by Mr Brown is estimated to have cost the wider economy over £100bn in the meantime. This isn't a first for George, he h as already reduced the tax free pension contribution threshold from £255,000 to £50,000 per annum, and a further cut to £30,000 could raise another £1.8bn. With new council tax bands being blocked by the Prime Minister and further stamp duty increases thought to yield next to no income, a 1pc increase on the 5pc higher rate would raise only £70m, his options for hitting the rich are narrowing sharply ahead of the November 28th deadline for the submission of his Autumn Statement to the OBR. It looks like the Chancellor has found a way of balancing the Coalition arithmetic, but at what economic and electoral cost?
STROLLING TOWARDS THE EXIT
He didn't have much wriggle room before, and he certainly has none now. Dave admonished the EU for "picking pockets" in his CBI speech yesterday, the Mail reports, a move which will make bringing home anything bar a freeze from this week's two-day budget summit nigh on impossible. The Prime Minister knows he is on a hiding to nothing at the negotiating table, and with diplomatic niceties apparently being cast aside in the budget dispute, it is hard not to agree with Vince Cable, who yesterday affirmed his belief that an in/out poll is inevitable in thefuture. Of course, while you can't fool all of the people all of the time,there's always Ken Clarke, who confidently signalled that Britain's contribution to the EU would increase above inflation, the Sun reports. With UKIP on the rise, such a move would be damaging. This morning's Guardian reports that an ICM poll has found UKIP on 7pc and mining a rich seam - 68pc of Tory voters would choose "out" in an in/outreferendum . Dave the statesman will need to be tempered by Dave the tactician in his negotiating stance. As I write in my Telegraph column, what the Prime Minister really believes, though, is still opaque:
"It is fashionable to talk about sleepwalking towards the exit – Mr Miliband complained about it yesterday, without a hint of irony – but in fact Mr Cameron has been strolling towards it, with a degree of insouciance that is profoundly worrying. Not because the prospect of leaving the EU is to be feared – on the contrary, it may be as wonderful as those advocating it suggest – but because we know nothing about what it entails in practice. Mr Cameron is allowing a conversation to take place in which the participants are motivated by belief, not facts."
MPS ALLOWED TO HIDE EXPENSES
A total of 51 MPs have been allowed to censor details of their landlords by Ipsa on security grounds, the Telegraph reports. What the Times (£) terms the parliamentary "money go-round" also saw several MPs renting from other politicians and political donors, while to the delight of theSun , Peter Luff's landlord turned out to be Chelsea's Frank Lampard. A separate Ipsa report also found that many MPs found their housing allowance of £1,450 a month insufficient and objected to having to use night buses, the Telegraph adds.
DAVEY KO'D BY DAVE
Despite the public show of solidarity on the green benches, Ed Davey has been infuriated by John Hayes' casual disregard for the green policies of the Coalition. Mr Davey wrote to the Prime Minister following Mr Hayes' declaration that "enough is enough" when it comes to onshore wind farms, asking for his junior minister to be either muzzled or moved. Dave refused, according to the FT (£), and his aides are also briefing that he will get his way over his random announcement  long-term plan of forcing energy firms always to offer their lowest tariffs. A master tactician at work.
DEAR LYNTON...
Despite having argued against the appointment of Lynton Crosby as Dave's new election guru, Lord Ashcroft has reached out to him this morning with a campaign memo published on ConservativeHome. Relying on Ed Miliband being the party's biggest election draw isn't a strategy in itself, he warns: "while many people will vote Conservative because of Cameron, others will vote Labour despite Miliband. Aggressively pointing out his flaws, which they can see anyway, will not change their vote – but, as in 2010, it will represent a missed opportunity to show why they should support us instead."
DAVE DOES DOWNTON
Highclere Castle, where ITV's Downton Abbey is shot, was the venue for a Cameron fundraiser earlier this month, Richard Kay reports in theMail. Organised jointly by hedge-fund boss Lord Fink and Lord Feldman, the evening saw around 80 prominent party supporters receive a vote of thanks from the Prime Minister for their continued support of the party. After his run-in with stag's liver, you would have though Dave would steer clear of aristocratic dining...
WHEN GIANTS WALKED THE EARTH
Dave humbly compared his austerity drive to the efforts of Whitehall in the Second World War, provoking inevitable comparisons with Winston Churchill, not least from Cristina Odone on Telegraph Blogs. Now we learn that Ed Miliband is, in fact, Margaret Thatcher. In a Radio 4 documentary last night, Ed compared the present situation to that at the end of the 1970's and praised a fellow conviction politician, according to the Mail. Sir Malcolm Rifkind was not buying it:
"I recall [Mrs Thatcher] despised politicians who try to be all things to all people. Mr Miliband appears to fall into that mould.  He has as much claim to the mantle of Margaret Thatcher as Silvio Berlusconi had to that of Julius Caesar."
TWEETS AND TWITS
Iain Stewart spots a man deputising appropriately:
@iainastewart: "The current speaker in the Commons debate on a Groceries Code is a Mr Mark Spencer! :)"
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Peter Stanford - Judgment day - at last
Best of the rest
Janan Ganesh in the FT (£) - Cameron is right to turn to Australian fixer
Rachel Sylvester in The Times (£) - What Britain needs is unreasonable people
Polly Toynbee in The Guardian - No amount of moralising will alleviate this harship
THE AGENDA

09:30 am: The Council of Mortgage Lenders publishes its gross mortgage lending figures for October.
11:00 am: International Development Secretary Justine Greening gives evidence to Commons International Development Committee on post-2015 aid goals. Committee Room 5, House of Commons.
12:30 pm: Foreign Secretary William Hague makes Commons statement on Syria.
05:00 pm: Energy Secretary Ed Davey gives evidence to the Commons Energy Committee on energy policy.
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Monday, 19 November 2012


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Cameron gives Clarke assurances over Europe..



BREAKING NEWS: Ken Clarke has been on the Today programme discussing the Government's Justice and Security Bill, debated in the House of Lords today. He argued that civil liberty groups have been wrong to brand it a "secret justice" bill:
"It's not the politician with the power. There are certain campaigners who will never, ever be satisfied if you mention MI6. The trouble with public interest immunity at the moment is that if something is secret it is just taken account of in the case...this way the judge does get to hear both sides of the argument."
On Europe: "David Cameron believes, as he has always told me...Britain's place is in Europe. It would be a disaster if we had to leave the European Union... An irresponsible debate weakens Britain's own interests."
EU MULLS BARRING BRITAIN FROM BUDGET PLANNING
The EU may seek to bar Britain from making long-term budget decisions, according to this morning's FT (£). Although the two-day European leaders summit does not begin until Thursday, officials are making contingency plans in the belief that it will be impossible to accommodate British demands. With support from Sweden, British officials now put the odds of a compromise deal at around 30pc, but concede that the most likely outcome is negotiations continuing into next year.
Drift is dangerous for the Prime Minister, though. Dave has already been squeezed by his own backbenchers, and yesterday's assertion by David Davis, that voters will not believe any future pledge on Europe as they feel they have been "lied to", hardly helps (Telegraph report here). Mr Davis will call for a referendum now in a speech this afternoon (St Stephen's club, noon). Now additional pressure is being applied by the ever mercurial Ed Miliband. Having backed Tory rebels over the EU budget, the Guardian reports he is to switch tack and warn that the nation is "sleepwalking towards [EU] exit". Brass neck, from Red Ed, although CCHQ strategists may breathe a sigh of relief that he's no longer Eurosceptic Ed.
Of course, a strategic crisis isn't a strategic crisis in the Tory party without Boris getting involved. In his Telegraph column, the Mayor of London bangs the drum for a rejection of any EU budget increase:
"The people in Brussels must have been out of their tiny minds. It is like giving heroin to an addict. It is like handing an ice cream to the fattest boy in the class, while the rest of the kids are on starvation diets — and then asking them to pay for his treat."
ECONOMY READY FOR WAR
The Prime Minister will announce today that the economy is to be put on a "war footing" in a broadside against "risk averse" civil servants who Dave sees as hampering growth by peddling "bureaucratic rubbish" (our report is here ). In a speech to the CBI, Mr Cameron will argue that all resources must be devoted to growth, rather like all resources in the Second World War went towards defeating Hitler. If Dave is going to approach growth in same way as Churchill approached WW2, that leaves the Civil Service playing the role of - what? - saboteurs and fifth columnists? The fear must be that Dave is getting into the habit of making speeches about the importance of making quick decisions and the obstacles he faces, while not taking decisions and being stuck behind those same obstacles.
This afternoon will also see a return for the Coalition's "extend to victory" plan, which has floundered so far not on the back of the judiciary, but on non-compliant Conservative councils. The Prime Minister, in any case, wants to abolish resident's right to challenge planning approval for new developments. That should play well in the shires.
NO. 10 WELCOMES WIZARD OF OZ
Dave's new election mastermind Lynton Crosby has his unconventional reputation bolstered by this morning's Times (£) revelation that he does not listen to the Today programme. The man dubbed the "lizard of Oz" by the Mirror can, however, recite the names of all the books of the Bible. Modernisers in the party, including George Osborne, have ignored misgivings from those who believe Mr Crosby represents a swing to the right, arguing that he will deliver the message he is given from high command, according to the FT (£). His appointment will cause unease among those already worried by signs that Dave has abandoned many of the postures he adopted to become leader. The Mail reports Mr Crosby's denial of using "dog-whistle" tactics in areas like immigration and Islamic extremism during the 2005 election. It wasn't a "dogwhistle", he insists, "it was more like a foghorn".
MANSION TAXES: ARRIVING SOON THROUGH A BACK DOOR NEAR YOU
Will they, won't they... the Coalition flirtation with the idea of a mansion tax continues to be played out in the papers like an ill-starred celebrity romance. Vince Cable, of course, is not flirting with the idea, he is wedded to it, and his announcement over the weekend that he expected a resolution to the issue soon has prompted renewed speculation. While new council tax bands at the top end of the spectrum is an idea the Prime Minister is said to be hostile to, despite Mr Osborne's agreement, an increase to the top rate of stamp duty or a rise in capital gains tax are both under serious consideration, according to the Mail. The Telegraph's leader is unequivocal in its hostility:
"What we are seeing is the dynamics of Coalition politics at work rather than decision-making that is either rational or sensible. It is precisely this sort of approach that saw Mr Osborne’s Budget unravel so spectacularly earlier this year. National financial planning is hard to achieve when it is done on a 'one for you, two for me' basis."
ENERGY POLICY ROWS  "LAUGHABLE"
It might not keep us warm when the lights go out, but Coalition energy policy will at least provide some material for sketchwriters, according to Tim Yeo, chairman of the Commons energy select committee. Mr Yeo told the Telegraph that rows between Conservative and Lib Dem ministers over green energy were putting off investors accross the board:
"The problem is, the pension funds and investors we need to build new energy infrastructure in the UK are not finding it very funny... the more uncertainty there is about energy policy, the higher the perceived risk will be for investors. This will push up the cost of capital, increasing electricity prices and potentially undermining our energy security if projects are pulled as a result."
HAGUE: JUSTICE BILL OFFERS SECURITY, NOT SECRECY
Writing in the Telegraph, William Hague defends the new Justice Bill arguing that present arrangements are neither just nor accountable. "We do not have effective justice, and our agents and intelligence partners abroad fear that their co-operation with our agencies could be exposed through civil litigation. This situation must change and this Bill is vital," he argues. Mr Hague has also come out in favour of the free press prior to the publication of Leveson, as the Mail reports. 
POLITICS AS ENTERTAINMENT
"What do you seek when you watch a news programme or read an opinion column? Enlightenment or entertainment? Do you want your views confirmed or challenged?" asks Tim Montgomerie in the Times (£). He attacks the "flightless deficit hawks" he claims can be found in the press on the Right. These divide into "the Basil Fawlty columnists who can't mention the EU without resorting to Second World War imagery" and "young, childless ide0logues" from the blogsphere. Do I qualify as a Basil Fawlty commentator I wonder? Isn't he young and childless?
PREZZA TO STAR IN CELEBRITY BIG BROTHER
He may have been beaten by the Conservatives in Humberside's PCC elections, but all is not lost for Lord Prescott. The Star reports that he "is set to rebuild his bruised image by starring in Celebrity Big Brother."  The former Deputy Prime Minister appealed to producers because he "boasts the colourful private life reality TV chiefs love", according to the paper. A shrewd move, after all, it's doing wonders for Nadine Dorries' career...
TWEETS AND TWITS
It isn't just the red tops which have become enchanted by Nadine Dorries' jungle co-star:
@GloiraDePieroMP: "Helen Flanagan. Wow. You've made me miss Homeland but I forgive you."
TOP COMMENT
In the Telegraph
Best of the rest
Tim Montgomerie in The Times (£) - Don't get frothed into a right-wing bubble
Jackie Ashley in The Guardian - By next spring, we'll know if Corby really mattered
THE AGENDA

09:00 am: CBI annual conference. Events include: 09:45 am address by CBI President Sir Roger Carr, 10:30 am speech by Vince Cable, 12:30 pm speech by Ed Miliband, and 2:30 pm speech by Boris Johnson. David Cameron will also speek (time TBA). Grosvenor House Hotel.
12:00 pm: David Davis speech, "Europe: It's Time To Decide". St Stephen's Club, 34 Queen Anne's Gate, SW1.
04:00 pm: Commons Transport Committee takes evidence on aviation strategy from airline executives, including Michael O'Leary of Ryanair. Witnesses from Virgin Atlantic, Easyjet, Ryanair, American Airlines, Air China, British Air Transport Association, Board of Airline Representatives, ABTA, Thomas Cook Group and TUI Travel. Thatcher Room, Portcullis House, London, SW1A 2LW.
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Friday, 16 November 2012


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Apathy is the winner..



Public derision won the day on Super Thursday, with voter steering clear of what the Independent termed  "the secret policeman's ballot". Overwhelming public apathy held sway in both the PCC elections (Telegraph report here) and the three byelections. The 18.16pc turnout in Manchester Central's byelection was the lowest in a byelection since the Second World War. Turnout in Cardiff South & Penarth was barely better, with just over a quarter voting. The Wiltshire PCC election attracted a shade under 16pc turnout with only 10pc in Devizes and 11pc in Trowbridge and Chippenham, according to the BBC. In summary:
  • Cardiff South & Penarth byelection: Labour hold. Majority 9,936. Turnout 25.65pc. Swing, Con to Lab, 8.41pc.
  • Manchester Central byelection: Labour hold. Majority, 5,334 . Turnout 18.16pc. Swing, Lib Dem to Lab, 16.77pc.
  • Wiltshire PCC election: Conservative win. Second round majority, 14,162. Turnout 15.8pc.
The byelections were bad for the Conservatives. In Manchester Central, the party lost its deposit after attracting only 754 voters, while the Mailis predicting that they will struggle to beat UKIP to second when Corby announces this afternoon. UKIP are also expected to put up a prominent showing in the PCC elections, with Lib Dem officials putting UKIP just behind Lord Prescott in Humberside. This is the last thing CCHQ needs. There is growing anxiety in leadership circles about the prospects of Ukip giving the Tories a kicking at the next euro elections, which would put Mr Cameron under overwheling pressure to harden his line on Europe ahead of 2015. There are already challenges enough ahead for Mr Cameron, as the FT (£) notes, without further pressure from the Right. Paul Goodman at ConservativeHome has written that the lesson of the elections is that Mr Cameron is already under seige from both sides and that Labour are the new establishment party. Whoever is the party of the establishment, though, apathy proved the party of the masses yesterday. 
MAIL OPENS FIRE ON LEFT WING CONSPIRACY EXPLOITING LEVESON INQUIRY
"Leveson: disturbing questions over his key adviser", runs the headline of the Daily Mail. The paper's leader argues that its decision to investigate Sir David Bell, a Leveson advisor who is also a trustee of the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, is in the public interest following the BIJ's involvement in libelling of Lord McAlpine. They acknowledge that the barrage in today's paper will draw accusations of interference in the Leveson process:
"The Mail is acutely aware of the seriousness of publishing this investigation. We know all too well that our enemies will accuse us of being aggressively defensive in a bid to pre-empt the outcome of the Leveson report, which is due any week now. But in the light of the scandal engulfing the BBC, we passionately believe in the public’s right to know about a senior Leveson assessor’s role in it."
The paper goes on to look at the  "nuclear bomb that dropped on the press - and the motley crew who seized their chance", arguing that it amounts to a "coup by the Left's old boy network". There's a dozen pages to read, so judge for yourself, but even the most dispassionate observer will have noticed that behind the concerns for those affected by the News of the World's criminality is a wider left of centre campaign of retribution against the centre right press. You might conclude that it's the final battle in the 40 year political and cultural war between the lefty establishment and Rupert Murdoch, and Leveson is the Left's Doomsday Machine. There will be tears.
ASHDOWN CALLS FOR WITHDRAWAL
Britain and France may tear up their embargo on arms exports to Syrian rebels, the Telegraph reports. In the meantime, as one war becomes slightly hotter from a British perspective, another drags on. Paddy Ashdown has called for Britain to withdraw from Afghanistan before any more troops are killed. Writing in the Times (£), he criticises the allied forces for building an unsustainable state with a corrupt government:
"All that we might have achieved if we had done things differently has been lost. The only rational policy is to leave quickly, in good order and in the company of our allies."
JSA AND INCOME SUPPORT COULD BE FROZEN
The Independent is reporting that some state benefits could be frozen, with Jobseeker's allowance and income support the likliest casualties. IDS has joined the Quad to discuss a scheme which would receive Lib Dem support for freezes in exchange for a form of wealth tax. Additional welfare savings will not be stripped out of the total government spend, however, even if they are made. The Coalition is serious about "not a penny more, not a penny less", and rather than close the deficit, any funds freed up would likely be targeted at infrastructure projects. 
BRITISH EXPORT DRIVE UPDATE: SELLING ICE TO THE ESKIMOS
Chicken feet to the Chinese, actually. Owen Patterson has spotted a gap in the market for British "phoenix claws" in the Orient, the Independentreports. Perhaps we could exchange them for some coals to send to Newcastle...
BORIS BIDS FOR MORE IMMIGRATION
Immigration targets came under fire from both BoJo and the CBI last night, the FT (£) reports. Speaking on the Hindu Business Line, Mr Johnson helpfully explained that the Prime Minister's policy of cutting net immigration to the tens of thousand meant "we are losing a massive business opportunity here which is completely crazy for the UK market". Still, at least the Mayor chose a good day to bury bad Borising, ahem.
WAR OF WORDS OVER IPSA
Staff working on MPs expenses are "lions led by donkeys", according to Sir Bob Russell, a member of the Speaker's committee which agrees on funding for the body. He added "good riddance" to the four Ipsa board members who resigned rather than re-apply for their positions, and argued that Sir Ian Kennedy, the last remaining board member should also go, according to the Telegraph.  
TWEETS AND TWITS 

Michael Portillo, agriculture guru: 

@DavidJonesMP: "I once told Michael Portillo that the Orme goats were presented to Queen Victoria by the Shah of Persia. He said: 'They must be very old.'"
TOP COMMENT

In the Telegraph

Fraser Nelson - Pay attention in class! Mr Gove is teaching the art of politics
Richard Blackden - Obama can do without Churchill's bust, but not British cash

Best of the rest

Richard Pendlebury in The Mail - A coup by the Left's old boy network
Peter Mandelson in the FT (£) - Britain must be ready for the inevitable referendum
Philip Collins in The Times (£) - Force is the only way to change the police
THE AGENDA

TODAY: By-election result from Corby expected 1300. Counting of votes for Police and Crime Commissioner elections in 41 police areas in England and Wales (excluding London). Results expected between 12:30 and 18:00.
Business Minister Michael Fallon is to announce an initiative to help entrepreneurs.
09:40 am: Business Secretary Vince Cable speech on improving access to university. Brunel University, Uxbridge, London.
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