The Ceiling and the Floor..

Conservatives in crisis! The latest Populus has Labour ahead by 37% to 32%. But the new Ashcroft poll has that party on 28% to the Conservatives' 34%. Polling industry in crisis! 

The figures aren't as strange as they seem. The continuing volatility of Lord Ashcroft's poll means that Labour will probably be back on top by a similar margin next week, while the movement in the latest Populus poll is within the margin of error. As Lewis Baston puts it, "watch the share, not the gap". It's all about the average share of the parties and the overall trend. We know that the Conservative poll share remains becalmed on 31-33%, while Labour mostly flit between the 32-34%. We also know that the Opposition are falling in the polls while the Conservatives are flatlining. Today's Poll of Polls sees the parties deadlocked on 33%. (Which, remember, would likely put Labour ahead in terms of seats if it were repeated at a general election.)

The important questions aren't about what happens in the odd Populus poll or even the ongoing debate over the reliability of Lord Ashcroft's figures. It's this: what is Labour's floor, and what is the Tory ceiling? At what point does the decline in Labour's vote bottom out, and is there any room for growth in the Conservative share? If Labour hit 28% as some Conservative ministers believe it will, then 32% of the vote would carry David Cameron back into Downing Street. Equally, if the Conservatives can find a way to get back to the 34, 35% mark, then anything below 32% becomes disastrous for Labour. 

What seems most likely is that neither side will make a breakthrough, and that May 2015 will look a great deal like the European elections: the Conservative vote holding up better than expected, Labour doing well in London but poorly across most of England, Ukip maximising their vote among that section of the population that is Farage-inclined, the Liberals in heavy retreat everywhere. The difference between disappointment and disaster for Labour in that election came from Scotland. It's a reminder, if it were needed, that what Jim Murphy and Nicola Sturgeon do between now and May probably matters more than anything that happens south of the border.

 

 

A LOT OF IFS AND BUTS

The IFS' Paul Johnson has written a column for the Times on the fiscal choices of David Cameron and Ed Miliband. He says that Labour's plans could leave the national debt around £170 billion higher by the end of the 2020s than through a balanced budget. "Labour plan to borrow risks £170bn extra debt" is the Thunderer's splash.  The figures and the headline are based on a "ludicrous assumption" about Labour's plans from 2020 onwards, Labour spinners say.  Labour's policy wonks think that they can close the deficit partly through boosting wages - their analysis shows that if wages grow in line with the average over the course of this Parliament, rather than the historical norm, it will deprive the Treasury of over £100 billion in revenue, Patrick Wintour reports in the Guardian. 

LETHAL WEAPONISING

1992 had the War of Jennifer's Ear. We've got the Skirmish of Miliband's Mouth. The PM says Ed Miliband is"wriggling like an eel" over his alleged use of that word "weaponise" to describe his plans for the NHS. It reveals that he doesn't much care about the state of the NHS, the PM says. 

LET FREEDOM RING (AND WE'LL TAP THE CALL)

"PM wants new internet spying powers" is the Guardian's splash. David Cameron wants British intelligence agencies to be given the power to breka into the encrypted communications of suspected terrorists. Nick Clegg's not impressed with the PM's swift switch from rallying for free speech and quickly moving to increase surveillance. "The irony appears lost on some politicians," Mr Clegg huffed. 

ACTUALLY, YOUR MUM IS A CHICKEN!

It's Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband who are scared of debates, the PM says. They're worried about the Green party's Natalie Bennett taking votes from the pair of them, he says. It's not just the Green leader who wants in on the debates and could spell trouble for Ed Miliband: Nicola Sturgeon and Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood make their case for involvement in the Guardian. 

CLOONEY AND MILIBAND

Ed Miliband dined with the barrister Amal Clooney and her actor husband George, Matt Holehouse reveals. As a result, he may throw his weight behind a group of cross-party backbenchers who want to do more to sanction corrupt officials in Vladimir Putin's regime, although the Labour leader's spokesman has played down his interest in the law. 

CAMERON GOES FOX-HUNTING

David Cameron has slapped down Steve Emerson, a self-described "terrorism expert" who told Fox News that the city of Birmingham was "totally Muslim" and that "non-Muslims simply don't go in" to the city. (Just 21% of the city's residents are Muslim.) "I choked on my porridge," the PM said, "The guy is clearly a complete idiot."  Matt Holehouse has the story. 


You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter.  Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here. 

Conservatives 33% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 15% Greens 6%
LATEST POLLS:

Ashcroft: Conservatives 34% Labour 28% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 16% Green 8%

Populus: Conservatives 32% Labour 37% Liberal Democrat 10% Ukip 13% Green 4%

YouGov:  Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 6% Ukip 17% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS... 

@ConorPope: Nigel Farage blames Paris attacks on military intervention & immigration. I blame the people who murdered cartoonists 

COMMENT

From the Telegraph 

Bryony Gordon  - Spare a moment for the victims that Twitter forgot

Toby Young - What do Americans really think it's like in Britain?

From elsewhere

Grace Dent - Free speech means the right to be a complete fool (Independent)

Janan Ganesh - The blandness of UK politics is a good sign (FT)

AGENDA 

1400 LONDON: Tony Blair to appear before a parliamentary inquiry into so-called On the Runs.

1430 LONDON: Hugo Swire at Foreign Affairs Committee on Hong Kong.

1530 LONDON: Lords Economic Affairs Committee hearing on HS2.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons: 1130

Health Questions.

A Ten Minute Rule Motion: Local Government (Planning Permission and Referendum).

A debate on a motion relating to the Charter for Budget Responsibility.

A debate on a motion relating to National Policy Statement on National Networks.

Criminal Justice and Courts Bill - Consideration of Lords amendments.

A motion to approve a carry-over extension on the Criminal Justice and Courts Bill.

A motion to approve a carry-over extension on the Deregulation Bill.

A short debate on the educational achievement of deaf students.

Westminster Hall:

0930: Grammar school funding.

1100: Contribution of the care sector to the UK economy.

1430: Changes to the probation service.

1600: Governance of Network Rail.

1630: Contribution of the direct selling industry to the UK economy.

Lords: 1430

Questions.

Counter-Terrorism and Security Bill - Second reading. 

Back to the grind..

The morning's papers focus on yesterday's Unity March in Paris. "Liberty, equality, fraternity: France defies the terrorists" is our splash, while the Indy also goes for "Liberté, égalité, fraternité". "Magnifique" sighs the Mirror. "United we stand" says the Times frontpage - "Je Suis 4 Million" roars the Sun. "A nation united against terror" is the Guardian's take, while "Foreign leaders join 3.7m French in show of defiance over terror killings" is the FT's. 

But elsewhere the mood is turning back to the election campaign. Later today, the PM will set out the big themes for the Conservative manifesto: balancing the books, cutting taxes, boosting jobs, increasing home ownership, reforming education and bribing the baby boomers. (Or "providing security in retirement".) Ed Miliband is meeting the public in Stevenage and pressuring the Government to vote for Labour's motion on Wednesday to give Ofgem the power to cut energy bills. 

Both men are coming in for their fair share of carping. That there is no mention of immigration in David Cameron's little list has left the Sun in an irritable mood. "You have to wonder if he really wants to win," their leader says. Meanwhile, the Labour leader is under pressure to admit that he used the word "weaponise" to describe his strategy for the NHS during the election campaign - Steven Swinford reveals that he briefed up to 15 BBC executives on his plans. (Here's one from the archives: Damian McBride on the W word) 

In reality, both men are being accused of running an election campaign. Mr Cameron doesn't want to talk about immigration because Downing Street regards it as an invitation to vote for Nigel Farage. Whether or not Mr Miliband actually used the aesthetically and politically ugly word "weaponise" is besides the point: we all know that he wants the Health Service to be at the front of people's minds on the 7th of May. But the two rows highlight one of the truths of this long, long campaign: the PM can't ever quite forget Ukip and their Old Man of Sea effect on the Conservative poll share, while Labour have lost none of their capacity for acts of self-harm. 

 

SNOOPER'S CHARTER III

David Cameron will tell Britain's intelligence chiefs that the Data Communications Bill will be introduced after a Conservative election victory, Nick Watt reports in the Guardian. Absent a majority, they'll have to get past Paddy Ashdown first. Writing in the Indy, Lord Ashdown argues: "Almost every recent generation has had to respond to these kind of phenomenon. And almost every generation has managed to do so without fundamentally undermining our freedoms or setting our societies at war with themselves." 

STRAIGHT-TALKER SAJID

"There is a special burden on Muslim communities [to tackle terrorism], because whether we like it or not, these terrorists call themselves Muslims," Sajid Javid argued yesterday. "You can't get away from the fact that these people are using it as a tool to carry our their activities," Mr Javid said. 

CHICKEN TONIGHT 

Ed Miliband would be willing to go ahead with a debate with Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage and an empty chair if the PM won't take part, the Labour leader told Andrew Marr yesterday. Hang on Mr Miliband, says James Kirkup in his column today, why won't you sign up for the Telegraph's team-up with the Guardian and YouTube, and debate the PM, Mr Farage, Mr Clegg and the Greens online? The Mirror follows up Lord Tebbit's remarks to the Observer yesterday that David Cameron risks looking "frit" if he doesn't participate in the debate. "Tebbit: Cam Is Chicken" is their headline.

CLOGS FOR CLEGG?

In the Guardian, Helen Pidd goes on the campaign trail with Nick Clegg, who is facing an increasingly difficult battle to hold his Sheffield Hallam seat against Labour's Oliver Coppard. One voter is deserting Mr Clegg for Nigel Farage: "I think he will be in coalition instead of you next time," the 53-year-old quantity surveyor says. The DPM says he is "confident but not complacent" of holding his seat. 

BORIS SLEEPS ROUGH

Boris Johnson spent a night sleeping rough this weekend to raise awareness of the Indy's Homeless Veterans campaign, in the company of that newspaper's owner, Evgeny Lebedev.


You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter.  Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here. 

Conservatives 33% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 14% Greens 7%
LATEST POLLS:

Populus: Conservatives 33% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 14% Green 4%

YouGov:  Conservatives 32% Labour 32% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 18% Green 6%

TOO MANY TWEETS... 

@JamieRoss7: I hope Nick Clegg calls David Cameron "David Cameron" every time they speak. "Can you pass the stapler, David Cameron?"

COMMENT

From the Telegraph 

James Kirkup - General election debates: will David Cameron and Ed Miliband turn up? 

Boris Johnson - The Islamists want war, but it would be fatal if we fell for it

From elsewhere

Chris Deerin - Darkness on a Saturday afternoon: the case of Ched Evans (Scottish Daily Mail)

Matthew D'Ancona - For Cameron and Miliband, Paris is act one of the UK general election (Guardian)

AGENDA 

1100 STEVENAGE: Ed Miliband visiting Stevenage.

1120 EAST MIDLANDS: David Cameron speech.

1400 LONDON: Network Rail publish report into Christmas engineering overrruns. 

1400 LONDON: Nine-year-old boy appears before the Commons HS2 Committee to make petition.

1600 LONDON: Theresa May and Chris Grayling at European Scrutiny Committee.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

COMMONS: 1430

Defence Questions.

Stamp Duty Land Tax Bill - Committee of the whole House and remaining stages.

Consumer Rights Bill - Consideration of Lords amendments.

A motion to approve a carry-over extension on the Consumer Rights Bill.

A short debate on Corby fire services.

LORDS: 1430

Introduction of Baroness Wolf of Dulwich.

Questions.

Pension Schemes Bill - Committee of the whole House (Day 2).

A short debate on encouraging elderly people to prepare living wills and powers of attorney

What happens next..

The Charlie Hebdo killers are still at large - the latest developments will appear here - and it's the focus of much of today's papers. "Hunted down" is the Indy's splash, "Killers elude manhunt"is the Times, "The Last Stand" says the Sun's frontpage, and "Manhunt for the Paris killers" is the Guardian's take, while "M15 reveals Syria-linked terror plots as French step up manhunt" is the FT's. 

It's the warning from MI5's Andrew Parker that the intelligence services "cannot hope to stop" every attack on Britain that dominates the rest of the papers and the minds of many. "Al Qaeda 'plotting UK attack" is our splash, "We Could Be Next Target" is the Mail's, "MI5 Boss: Britain Is A Target" is the Mirror's take, "We Can't Stop Attacks" is the Express' line.  

It doesn't "change the terms of the debate" as far as surveillance is concerned, Sir Malcolm Rifkind argued on Today this morning, but merely "added weight" to the case already being made by those who favour greater powers for the security services. Others, however,  will find more to agree with in Nick Clegg's column in today's Telegraph: "we will win this struggle not by increasing our security but by protecting our liberty". Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is under fire for using the term "fifth column" and blaming the attacks on a "gross policy" of multiculturalism. Both those debates will now have a rather greater prominence than suits either of the parties in the dying days of the Parliament. 

FRIEND OF NATALIE, OR SCARED OF NIGEL?

David Cameron will refuse to take place in the leaders' debates if the Green party's Natalie Bennet is not included, Chris Hope reports, after Ofcom said that both Ukip and the Liberal Democrats would be characterised as a "major party" at the election, but not the Greens. "I don't think the current proposals work," the PM told ITV News. Mr Cameron is "running scared", says Ed Miliband, and "scared to debate with me" according to Nigel Farage, while Nick Clegg called for Mr Cameron to "stop making excuses". 

MANSION TAX LATEST

Further developments in Labour's ongoing row over the proposed mansion tax. Tom Newton Dunn reports in the Sun that party grandees have warned that the tax could cost Labour up to ten seats, including the seat of Ed Miliband's PPS, Karen Buck. In the Times, Michael Savage reports on a ComRes poll for the British Property Foundation showing that 69% of MPs would prefer the use of additional council tax bands rather than  a mansion tax, including two out of five Labour MPs. (The downside from a Labour perspective is the additional revenue would then partially fall into the hands of local government, rather than funding Labour's promised extra investment in the Health Service.) 

TAKING FLIGHT 

Ed Miliband knocked off 25 conversations off Labour's four million yesterday at his first Q&A of the election campaign. Elsewhere, Labour MP John Woodcock has the nine Coalition MPs in Labour's target seats who have quit their posts after one term in his sights - he says that the eight Conservatives have "very little faith in David Cameron or his ability to win this year's general election". Progress, of which Mr Woodcock is the chair, will target those nine seats as part of "Operation Flight" this weekend

TAX CUTS FOR ALL

George Osborne has confirmed that the Conservatives' plans for a £23 billion surplus by the end of the decade will give them the breathing space to deliver their promised £7 billion tax cut, Nick Watt reports in the Guardian. 

I LOVE EU, CHUKA TO TELL BUSINESSMEN

Chuka Umunna has accused Eurosceptic Conservatives of "trying to muzzle the voice of businesses" and will seek to woo that community todaywith a speech on Britain's role in Europe. He will say that the In-Out debate is a choice between "a country hankering for the past or a Britain preparing the future", and will contrast the PM's "risky" approach to the EU with the Opposition's gradualist approach. 

UNIONS, GAGGED?

The government's reforms to lobbying could affect campaign activity by the trade unions, ranging form phone banks to public events organised by affliated unions for Labour, Jim Pickard reports in the FT.

SEND OUT FOR THE BIG GUNS

Jim Murphy has hired John McTernan, former aide to Tony Blair and Mr Murphy's SpAd in the last two years of Gordon Brown's government, as his chief of staff, the Herald reports. 


You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here. 

LATEST POLLS:

YouGov:  Conservatives 33% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 8% Ukip 13% Green 7%

TOO MANY TWEETS... 

@JamieRoss7: I hope Nick Clegg calls David Cameron "David Cameron" every time they speak. "Can you pass the stapler, David Cameron?"

COMMENT

From the Telegraph 

Dan Hodges - We can't leave the debate on Islam to Islamophobes

Fraser Nelson - Jihadists are attacking the West, and moderate Muslims, too

Nick Clegg - We must always have the freedom to offend

From elsewhere

Dave Brown - We need to keep finding ways to laugh at these people(Independent)

Gaby Hinsliff - The resentment between London and the rest of Britain is turning into a poisonous politicla debate (Guardian)

AGENDA 

1100 DURHAM: Archbishop of Canterbury receives an honorary degree from Durham University.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

PARLIAMENT

COMMONS - 0930:

Health and Social Care (Safety and Quality Bill) - report stage.

Self-build and Custom Housebuilding Bill - report stage.

European Parliament Elections Bill - second reading.

UK Borders Control Bill - second reading.

Defence Expenditure (Nato Target) Bill - second reading.

Pavement Parking Bill - Second reading.

Railways Bill - second reading.

Freedom of Information (Amendment) Bill - second reading.

Carers Bedroom Entitlement (Social Housing Sector) Bill - second reading.

Sugar in Food and Drinks (Targets, Labelling and Advertising) Bill - second reading.

Dogs (Registration) Bill - Second reading.

Mental Health Act 1983 (Amendment) Bill - second reading.

Buses (Audio Announcements) Bill - second reading.

Convicted Prisoners Voting Bill - second reading (Day 2).

Benefit Entitlement (Restriction) Bill - second reading.

Road Traffic Regulation (Temporary Closure for Filming) Bill - second reading (Day 2).

Illegal Immigrants (Criminal Sanctions) Bill - second reading (Day 2).

House of Lords (Maximum Membership) Bill - second reading.

EU Membership (Audit of Costs and Benefits) Bill - second reading.

Wild Animals in Circuses Bill - second reading.

Local Planning and Housing Bill - second reading.

Mutuals' Redeemable and Deferred Shares Bill (HL) - second reading.

Health service provision in Lewes constituency - second reading.

LORDS: Not sitting. 

More openness, more democracy..

The killing of 12 people at the offices of Charlie Hebdo dominates today's papers.

"War on Freedom" is our splash, "Attack on Freedom" is the Times', while the Mail goes for "The War On Freedom". "Gunmen on the loose after 12 killed in Paris magazine attack" is the FT's headline. "Massacred In Minutes" is the Express' take, "Massacred At Work" is the Star's. 

The Sun goes for one word: "Non!" while the Mirror's single-word headline is "Barbaric". The Indy carries an illustration by its cartoonist, Dave Brown, with a single finger rising from a copy of Charlie Hebdo to flick a familiar salute to its attackers, while the i opts for "Dark day for liberté". "An assault on democracy" is the Guardian's headline. "The hooded thugs trained their Kalashnikovs on free speech everywhere" is their leader's verdict. 

It's the worst terrorist attack in Europe since Anders Breivik's attacks on Norwegians in Oslo and Utøya, and the reaction of Norway's premier, Jens Stoltenberg, that the response must be "more openness [and] more democracy" is as true in 2015 as it was in 2011. 

Our liveblog will update with the latest news about the attack throughout the day. 

LOOKING FOR FRIENDS IN THE NORTH

David Cameron and George Osborne will pledge to turn the cities of the North into economic powerhouses comparable with the great American metropolises as they visit Manchester today. Britain must spread its "economic might", the PM will say. But Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson thinks the timing of all this is a tad suspicious. "The fact is that the Tories have got less chance of winning here than I have of finding rocking horse s***," Mr Anderson tells the Guardian, "So you have to ask yourself: is this a serious economic decision, or is there some kind of politics being played here?" He's also said that Labour has been nowhere "near as sharp or as good as we could be at communication". Ed Miliband will take part in a people's Question Time in Nottingham later today. 

SHE GIVES AND TAKES AWAY

Angela Merkel agrees with David Cameron that it is a "necessity" to tackle "abuses" of Britain's benefits system, and would "very much like" Britain to remain in the EU. But, Frau Merkel added, the principle of free movement cannot be altered "in any way". Steven Swinford and Peter Dominiczak have the story.

A LATE CHRISTMAS GIFT FOR SIMON STEVENS

The PM has hinted that the Conservatives will increase NHS funding in line with Simon Stevens' plans for the future of the Health Service, calling Mr Stevens' plan "the right long-term answer for our health service". 

KEEP CAM AND CARRY ON 

George Parker profiles the PM in the FT. He's non-ideological, wakes up at quarter to six, and tries to be in bed shortly after 10pm, and "doesn't do dark nights of the soul" according to one ally. "There's always a trade-off between delegating and having some sense of overall control," Tim Bale tells the FT, "I'm not sure David Cameron always stays on the right side of the line."

GM-OK

Genetically-modified food should be grown in Britain as it is more "eco-friendly", Liz Truss told the Oxford Farming Conferenceyesterday. 

WAITING FOR CHILCOT

The PM has expressed frustration that the Chilcot report on the Iraq war is being delayed by the Maxwellisation process - when the people mentioned in the report can respond to the contents - describing the document as "largely finished" during PMQs yesterday. 

OH GOD, IS IT MY NOSE?

A Ukip councillor was expelled from the party for allegedly saying she had a problem with "negroes" because there was "something about their faces", Laura Pitel reveals in the Times. Rozanne Duncan was kicked out last month after making what were described as "jaw-dropping" comments, according to the account provided to the party.  


You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here. 

LATEST POLLS:

YouGov:  Conservatives 32% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 15% Green 7%

TOO MANY TWEETS... 

@sundersays: About 1/12 people in France is Muslim. As were 2 of 12 murder victims, a copper & a copyeditor. Murder, like satire, targets us all. 

COMMENT

From the Telegraph 

Padraig Reidy - We must stop blaming ourselves for Islamist terror

Peter Oborne - The hypocrites have jumped aboard the Magna Carta bandwagon

From elsewhere

Alex Massie - Je Suis Charlie (Spectator)

Ed Husain - We cannot let the Paris murderers define Islam(Guardian)

AGENDA 

0930 BELFAST: Political and Constitutional Reform Committee to question Northern Ireland party leaders on the future of devolution after the Scottish referendum and the Smith Commission agreement. 

1200 LONDON: Bank of England decision on interest rates and quantitative easing programme.

1345 NOTTINGHAM: People's Question Time with Ed Miliband.  

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

COMMONS: 0930

Business, Innovation and Skills Questions.

A statement on the future business of the House.

Two backbench business debates: i) Higher education funding ii) Gibraltar.

A short debate on disabled access to historic properties.

Westminster Hall:

1330: A debate on the first report of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee on Winter Floods 2013-14 and the Government response.

LORDS: 1100

Questions.

A debate on the case for early years intervention in breaking the cycle of deprivation and promoting social mobility.

A debate on the future of the NHS.

A debate on reducing maternal and neonatal mortality in the developing world. 

Crisis, what crisis?

It's the first PMQs of the year today and Ed Miliband couldn't have wished for a better backdrop. 

"A & E Crisis Worst For Ten Years" is the Mail's splash. The pressure on the NHS has reached breaking point with at least 14 hospitals declaring major incidents and cancelling operations.  "In Critical Condition" is the Indy's take. "Hospitals Just Can't Cope" wails the Express. "Third World A&E" booms the Sun. Not to be outdone, the Mirror opts for "Our NHS Is Dying".     

It all comes down to the cuts to social care and local government budgets forcing more people into A&E and leaving the NHS unable to cope with the increased pressures, Labour say. The Times has details of how the low-cost 111 service, far from easing the pressure on frontline services, may be adding to it - "Helpline blunders led to NHS meltdown" is their splash.

Labour will seek to keep the Government on the back foot - they're calling for an emergency summit on the crisis.  Our leader finds the Opposition's attempt to "play politics" over the issue "hard to stomach". But the big problem for the Government - as Tim Montgomerie warned at the time - is that passing the Health and Social Care Bill means that every problem in the Health Service, fairly or unfairly, is laid at the door of Andrew Lansley and by extension the PM, just as Barack Obama's healthcare law continues to define his presidency. 

There's a crumb of comfort for the PM there, though. After all, despite the many problems with his healthcare law, President Obama was, at least, re-elected.  

 

WHO NEEDS MR FREEZE?

George Osborne has launched an investigation into whether companies are properly passing on the drop in oil and gas prices onto consumers. "Energy bills must start to fall now" is our splash. (Brent Crude, which was at $115 a barrel just six months ago, is now at $51 a barrel.) It's hoped that lower prices at the pump and to heat people's homes will contribute to a feel-good factor, easing Conservative pains over the Health Service.  But the fall in the price of oil is less good for Scotland, and Jim Murphy is calling on the Holyrood administration to set up a "resilience fund" to protect towns and cities from economic disruption caused by falls in the oil price. Matt Dathan has the story in the Times. 

THE GERMANS ARE COMING  

Angela Merkel is over to discuss the situation in the Ukraine, the ongoing Greek crisis and the tricky topic of David Cameron's renegotiation. But Labour are angry that the FCO didn't inform them about Frau Merkel's visit, although that courtesy is usually extended only for state visits. But it's being seen as a snub to the Opposition - "Merkel gives Milliband a miss" is our headline. The PM has confirmed reports that Barack Obama calls him "bro". "It's just like a greeting," Mr Cameron helpfully explained. 

POOLING AND SHARING?

Jim Murphy butted heads with Diane Abbott over his plan to employ 1,000 extra nurses using the proceeds of a mansion tax, Simon Johnson reports.  Mr Murphy wants to take "money from Londoners to win an election in Scotland", Ms Abbott opined. Tax revenue from North Sea oil has been similarly spread around the UK in the past, Mr Murphy replied. 

THE REAL MINI MILI 

Jim Pickard has a profile of the Labour leader in today's FT. He works until close to midnight on the fine detail of speeches and policy announcements, has little interest in fine dining, rarely drinks wine - "like receiving Communion", says one ally of the small amounts served at his home - and takes solace in the cricket scores and the Red Sox baseball team.

CUT THE CABLE

Vince Cable will be axed today as the Liberal Democrats' lead economics spokesman in the general election campaign, Chris Hope reports. Danny Alexander will take the reins while former Liberal ministers Nick Harvey and Michael Moore will return to the senior Liberal team speaking on defence and Europe respectively, while Tim Farron will be handed the foreign policy brief. Charlotte Henry has the details over at the Spectator. 

COMMONS CHIC

David Miliband still gets the fashion vote over his brother, Lauren Cochrane coos in today's G2. Among those politicians getting the G2 seal of approval: "GQ man" Chuka Umunna, whose grey or blue suits ensure "reliable levels of sauveness", Justine Greening - "hair matters in politics, and Greening's is superlative" and Andy Burnham. "An offbeat choice but a strong one, owing to his delightful cocktail of integrity, navy suits and massive eyes," Morwenna Ferrier says of the Shadow Health Secretary. Read the full list here. 


You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here. 

LATEST POLLS:

YouGov:  Conservatives 33% Labour 33% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 13% Green 8%

TOO MANY TWEETS... 

@jameskirkup:  @HackneyAbbott is on #wato attacking @jimmurphymp for planning a tax raid on people in £2m houses. Labour politics is upside down.

COMMENT

From the Telegraph 

Mary Riddell - Mr Miliband must first find the funds he needs to save the NHS

Robert Colvile -A beginner's guide to the A&E crisis

From elsewhere

Rafael Behr - Power without purpose: the tragic rule of David Cameron (Guardian)

Alice Thomson -A better NHS is about attitudes, not money (Times)

AGENDA 

0900 CARDIFF: Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb speech on the economy.

0945 LONDON: Education Secretary Nicky Morgan gives evidence to the Commons Education Committee on careers guidance.

1000 LONDON: Energy Secretary Ed Davey gives evidence to the Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee on the Lima Climate Change Conference.

1030 OXFORD: Liz Truss speech to the Oxford Farming Conference.

1200 LONDON: Prime Minister's Questions.

1500 LONDON: Angela Merkel visiting London for talks with David Cameron.  

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons: 1130

Cabinet Office Questions.

Prime Minister's Questions.

A ten minute rule motion: Alcohol Labeling (Pregnancy).

Counter-Terrorism and Security Bill - report stage and third reading.

A short debate on the regulation of the hairdressing industry.

Westminster Hall:

0930: Diverted Profits Tax.

1100: Healthcare provision in Newark.

1430: Treatment of benefit claimants in the North East.

1600: Effect of short let deregulation on residential neighbourhoods in London.

1630: NHS funding in York and North Yorkshire.

Lords: 1500

Questions.

House of Lords (Expulsion and Suspension) Bill [HL] - third reading.

Pension Schemes Bill - committee of the whole House.

A debate on improving the level of medical competence and skill in the NHS.  

Black Holes..

Labour had three good campaigns yesterday - but the combined effect was rather less impressive. 

Ed Miliband kicked off the day with a speech comparing the Hogarthian Britain of David Cameron with Labour's sunlit uplands. Ed Balls and co were out and about rebutting Conservative claims that a Labour government would open up a £20.7 billion "black hole" in the public finances. That the Guardian's splash is "Labour signals squeeze on pay" and the words "black hole" are nowhere to be seen in today's papers is a win for the Opposition's rebuttal team. (And also a defeat for Prince Andrew.)  

The problem, though, as George Eaton notes, is it leaves Labour making the following case: "We didn't like the cuts, we attacked the cuts, but we're going to have to keep them." It's uninspiring fodder for the activists who must rack up close to 4 million conversations between now and May in order to get Ed Miliband into Downing Street.

But the contradiction between the Eds has been largely overshadowed by Mr Miliband's Scottish counterpart. Jim Murphy's announcement of a 1000 extra nurses in Scotland that has taken the headlines on both sides of the border. "Labour tax on 'wealthy English' to fund Scots nurses" is our splash. "Mansion tax to fund nursing in Scotland" is the Times' take, and "Murphy makes 1,000 extra nurses pledge" is the Scotsman's. It feeds into the impression many people in England have that "Labour dislikes them", in Maurice Glasman's phrase, and it's taken the attention off the Eds. 

It all comes back to the black hole that should really worry Labour: the big empty void where their grid should be. 

MERKED 

The PM's renegotiation will suffer a blow today when the European Commission reports that his central demand on migration is incompatible with the founding principle of free movement of people, Nick Watt reports in the Guardian. It may make for a subdued atmosphere during Angela Merkel's talks with David Cameron in Downing Street on Wednesday. 

IMMIGRANTS, EVERYWHERE (1)

More good news for the Government's export drive and flourishing higher education sector. 600,000 foreign students will study in the UK by the 2020s, Theresa May has announced. 

IMMIGRANTS, EVERYWHERE (2)

In a major security breach, an illegal immigrant has been found working in the House of Commons catering staff, Laura Pitel reveals in the Times. Although  casual workers are theoretically required to be escorted at all times on the parliamentary estate, it is claimed that she was able to roam freely by using a pass owned by a permanent staff member. The revelation is "deeply disappointing" sighs self-effacing MP Keith Vaz. 

SCHOOL'S OUT FOREVER?

Conservative frontbenchers have been told to dodge questions about cuts to the education budget, a photographed briefing note from yesterday's attack on Labour's profligacy has revealed. Ben Riley-Smith has the story.

OH BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?

David Miliband misses Britain, the former Foreign Secretary tells Vogue, but admires straight-talking New Yorkers. "You know how people in London say: 'Oh, you must come for dinner' and don't always mean it? Well, there's a sincerity in New York which I'm struck by." Kunal Dutta has the story in the Indy.

AN ALDI DENIS HEALEY? 

Ed Balls has hit back at Russell Brand after the comedian turned Zaphod Beeblebrox impersonator branded the Shadow Chancellor a "clicky-wristed...snidey c***". Mr Brand is just "a pound shop Ben Elton", Mr Balls responded, and "Jo Brand is a rather better political commentator". (Ms Brand was one of the loyal few celebrities to endorse Labour in 2010, along with Sir Alex Ferguson and Ross Kemp.) 


You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here. 

LATEST POLLS:

Populus:Conservatives 34% Labour 36% Liberal Democrat 9% Ukip 12% Green 5%

YouGov:  Conservatives 31% Labour 34% Liberal Democrat 7% Ukip 14% Green 8%

TOO MANY TWEETS... 

@campaigner: I for one cannot wait for 122 more days of people pointing out that the ROAD IS IN GERMANY. #GE2015

COMMENT

From the Telegraph 

Philip Johnston - Fixed-term parliaments are fine; they just need to be shorter

Bonnie Greer - I'm sorry, Mr Cameron, but 'bro' left the hood long ago

From elsewhere

Rachel Sylvester - Voters want more than the two nasty parties (Times)

Janan Ganesh - We are all impoverished by the politics of negativity (FT)

AGENDA 

0930: Bank of England releases its credit conditions survey for the fourth quarter of 2014.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT 

COMMONS: 1130

Deputy Prime Minister's Questions. 

Attorney General Questions. 

A ten minute rule motion: Internet Communications (Regulation). 

Counter-Terrorism and Security Bill - report stage. 

A short debate on the mobile phone signal in Fownhope.

Westminster Hall:

0930: Effect of the CfD allocation process on offshore wind developments. 

1100: Government policy on treatment and management of late stage hepatitis C. 

1430: Economic growth and coastal towns. 

1600: Phone and broadband coverage in Herefordshire. 

1630: Carbon price support and incentives to land reclamation.

LORDS: 1430

Questions. 

Social Action, Responsibility and Heroism Bill - third reading.

National Insurance Contributions Bill - report stage. A debate on reducing the number of peers attending the House of Lords each day.

Cry Havoc..

And we're off! The first poll of 2015 finds Labour on 33% and the Conservatives on 32% (thanks Opinium!) as battle is joined in earnest. Up North, Ed Miliband will kick off Labour's election effort with a vow to fight the contest "street by street". Down South, five Conservative Cabinet ministers will hold a joint press conference attacking the Opposition plans to spend billions more than Britain can afford. 

They will say that Treasury analysis suggests that Labour have made £20.7 billion worth of uncosted spending commitments. But the Opposition say that the Tories are cooking the books, and Ed Balls has written a stern letter to HMT's permanent secretary asking how the sums have been derived. "Tories use Treasury to attack Labour as election fight begins" is the Guardian's splash.

But it's David Cameron's appearance on Marr yesterday that dominates most of the coverage today. "An EU poll next year' as PM woos Ukip voters" is our splash and "Cameron woos Ukip with fast-track vote on Europe" is the Times. He's raised the prospect of moving the In-Out referendum to an earlier date than the planned 2017 affair. (As both the German Chancellor and the French President are up for re-election in 2017 re-negotiation will have to be concluded before then in any case.)

It all comes back to what Patrick Wintour today calls "the big task" of the election campaign for Dave and Ed: "to reverse the centrifugal forces that dominated UK politics in 2014". Can the Conservatives win over Ukip supporters, or will Labour staunch the flow of defectors to Ukip, the Greens and the SNP? Neither side has any interest in winning the old fashioned way, by getting voters off the other lot. That, more than anything, means the Liberal Democrats can still hope that Nick Clegg's offer - repeated later today at another press conference - to keep Labour frugal and the Conservatives humane will find a bigger audience in May than today's polls suggest.   

PLUCKY JIM

Jim Murphy is also on the campaign trail today. The Scottish Labour leader will deliver a speech in Edinburgh designed to win over 200,000 former Labour voters - mostly male and mostly supporters of a Yes last September - saying that the choice in May is "to vote Labour to get rid of the Tories and or to vote SNP and keep the status quo". David Maddox has the story in the Scotsman.  

SPIKE THE GUNS

A future Conservative government could cut defence spending to below the Nato target of 2% of GDP, the PM admitted on Marr yesterday. Rosa Prince has the story. 

DYSON: YOUR PLAN SUCKS

Vacuum magnate and inventor Sir James Dyson has blasted Theresa May's plan to expel foreign graduates immediately after they finish their courses in an article for the Guardian. "Train 'em up. Kick 'em out. It's a bit shortsighted, isn't it?" sighs Sir James. John Bingham has the details. 

THIS CHARMLESS MAN

The National Health Service has "become the International Health Service", Nigel Farage told Murnaghan yesterday, before calling for doctors without an adequate grasp of English to be sacked. On the subject of healthcare, take a quarter of an hour to read my colleague Robert Colvile's excellent long read on the NHS today. 

WHITE VAN MANN

John Mann urges Ed Miliband to "ignore the policy wonks and go for a ride in a Transit van" in the Sun. The Labour leader will commit his party to four million conversations with voters - double the contact rate in 2010 - in his speech today.

NO VOTE, NO VOICE

Political parties are being incentivised to govern Britain in the interests of the elderly, as the young don't vote, Sadiq Khan tells the Independent. "You look at any empirical analysis of this Government's policies and you can see they are going for the silver vote," Mr Khan says, "You have to ask that it is good for our country." 

<INSERT INEVITABLE "COMMON PEOPLE" GAG HERE>

The PM saw in the New Year at the country pile of Blur bassist Alex James, the Sun reveals.  "He seemed to be sipping on red wine throughout the night, although [he] wasn't drunk - which makes his dad dancing even less excusable," an onlooker tells Dan Wootton.

You can get in touch with me by pressing "reply" or on Twitter. Our cartoon is the work of Christian Adams - a gallery of his work is available here.  

LATEST POLLS:  

Opinium: Con 32% Labour 33% LD 8% Ukip 17% Green 4%

TOO MANY TWEETS... 

@paulsci: For several weeks every January, I always have the distinct feeling that we're somehow living in the future.

COMMENT

From the Telegraph 

Daniel Johnson - Vladimir Putin is a bigger threat than any number of EU migrants 

Boris Johnson - There are times when we have to dig deep to finance the future 

From elsewhere

Brian Monteith - Time for a Unionist Party? (Scotsman)

Andrew Rawnsley - There's a vacumn now in British politics. And it's Blair-shaped (Observer) 

AGENDA

1030 SALFORD: Labour leader Ed Miliband speech. 

1030 NORWICH: Trial of UKIP candidate accused of electoral fraud. Matthew Smith, 26, a Norfolk County councillor and former prospective parliamentary candidate for UKIP, has denied six counts of making a false statement in nomination papers and three of making a false instrument with intent. 

1045 BEXLEY: Boris Johnson will announce a new scheme which is set to help thousands with home ownership.

1130 LONDON: Nick Clegg's monthly press conference.

1200 LONDON: Conservative press conference with George Osborne, William Hague and Theresa May.

TODAY IN PARLIAMENT

Commons:

Home Office Questions. 

Serious Crime Bill - second reading. 

A short debate on the diagnosis of children on the autism spectrum in Hull.

Lords: In recess 

Back to the future..

When I was covering the American presidential election in 2000 a despairing member of George W. Bush's travelling press corps told me that after months on the road with Dubya, the reporters staged a mutiny. They cornered his political brain, Karl Rove, and demanded a new stump speech. They wanted new soundbites, new arguments ... most of all, they wanted new jokes. There is nothing more soul destroying for reporters than hearing the same tired gags three times a day for 18 months. Rove listened politely and smiled, but sadly he could not oblige. "We change the stump speech," he said, "when every voter in the country can recite it.".

What seemed funny when it was happening to other people is no longer a laughing matter as the parliamentary press gallery contemplates the longest election campaign in living memory with politicians in the comfort zone of tried and tested messages. The election is four months away but, rest assured, it's already under way. In more than one sense we've been here before. It is 30 years since Back to the Future was released and our politicians are emulating the film by returning to the hits of yesteryear.

The Sunday Times leads its political coverage today with the latest from David Cameron and Ed Miliband. The prime minister thinks it's 1992 and is unveiling a new Labour "tax bombshell" in the hope of re-enacting John Major's injury-time victory from a goal down while the Labour leader is seeking to emulate Tony Blair's 1997 success in warning that voters have "24 hours to save the NHS". (Well, it's still here…)

The prime minister will shortly be on the Andrew Marr show, where he will unveil Treasury analysis of Ed Balls' economic plans. Cameron told the ST that Labour would have to pay a "breathtaking" £13.5bn extra in debt interest payments over the lifetime of the next parliament, accusing the Labour leader of pouring public money "down the drain".

By 2019-20 the Tories say Labour would pay £5.7bn a year extra. That is conveniently precisely the sum you get from slapping 1p on the 20p and 40p rates of income tax - hence the claims of a new tax bombshell.

But there's one problem. Balls's number crunchers say the figures are wrong. They say the Tories have assumed they will balance the books by 2020-21 rather than 2019-20 (and they might do it earlier), which puts debt repayments on a different trajectory. They are suspicious that the baseline figures used are from the 2013 autumn statement, rather than anything more recent.

And Labour believes the Tories have "double counted" some of the debt by misusing a ready reckoner tool designed by the OBR. Let's see what Robert Chote's people say today.

It is the second time in three days that Tory figures have been questioned. The party's first campaign poster said the coalition had "halved" the deficit, a claim that is true only as a proportion of GDP. In cash terms, it is down by a third. There was also embarrassment for the Tories last night, when Channel 4 News appeared to have discovered that the Conservatives road to recovery poster features a road in Germany. Angela Merkel will be pleased...

Miliband, meanwhile, is making a major speech tomorrow that will paint an apocalyptic image of life after five more years of Tory government. Key to that is a warning that the NHS is on "life support" and that the health service "as you know it cannot survive five more years of David Cameron". That's the message on Labour's first campaign poster, which uses the same airbrushed image of the PM when he pledged to "cut the deficit not the NHS" five years ago this weekend.

Labour are today publishing a 27-page dossier on NHS failures present and future, concluding that seven of the 15 patients' rights enshrined in the NHS constitution have been breached, and that 20 million people will be waiting a week for a GP appointment in 2020.

Andy Burnham warns in the Sunday Mirror that re-electing the Tories would be a "death knell" for the NHS, while Frank Field is on similarly apocalyptic form in the Mail on Sunday.

The Sun on Sunday mocks up Cameron and Miliband as boxers trading blows.

So what does all this mean for the election? Pollsters (reluctantly) give their predictions for May and put Labour narrowly ahead.

This is the first Sunday Red Box without a substantive mention of Ukip. Nigel Farage will be reinserting himself into the political conversation shortly on Sky's Murnaghan show.
2015 Election Countdown
122 days to go
EUROPEAN REFORM
DIY Dave does Europe
Speaking of Frau Merkel, she's in town on Wednesday for talks about the German G7 presidency. Someone in No 10 told me on Friday that they want to avoid more headlines about Cameron's European renegotiations and concentrate on the economy. See above.

But they obviously didn't tell the PM himself, who makes clear in his traditional new year interview, this time with the Mail on Sunday, that he is prepared to tell the German chancellor that the UK could leave the EU. "If I don't get what is needed I rule nothing out." This is the same formulation he gave during his speech on immigration before Christmas and is a reminder that the EU is never far off the top of the political agenda, whatever Lynton Crosby might hope.

In a classic of the "highly personal" and "wide-ranging interview" genre, Geordie Greig and Glen Owen dub the PM "DIY Dave" as he reveals that he spent Christmas unblocking the U-bend of his lavatory with his own hands. The image is amusing and carefully calculated to depict "man of the people" bonhomie. Not everyone has a second country home like Chequers to retreat to when their house "is falling apart", as Cameron complains.

The PM also reveals that Barack Obama calls him "bro" (that should go down well when he visits the White House this month), reveals that he authorised the removal of Theresa May's special adviser Nick Timothy from the Tory candidates list, tells Boris Johnson that he will have to wait for a cabinet post until he is no longer mayor of London (something Boris agrees with) and that he plans to introduce new schools and welfare legislation in the first 50 days of a new Conservative government.

The Number
49
Number of days the Commons will sit before the election
TORY TURMOIL
Brady's bunch of demands
But what happens if the Tories don't get a majority? One key figure in that scenario will be Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, the shop steward for Tory backbenchers who also has the task of keeping count of the number of MPs who want a leadership contest. Both roles could come into play if Cameron fails to secure a majority.

Brady has given an interview to The Sunday Times in which he makes clear that Conservative MPs must have the right to a formal vote with a secret ballot if Cameron wants to agree a second coalition agreement with the Lib Dems or anyone else. You will remember that Nick Clegg gave his MPs and peers a say last time, which has bound them rather tighter into support for the coalition than some Conservatives. Brady himself thinks there should have been a Tory minority government in 2010 with a second election after a year.

The prime minister has previously said that he would consult MPs next time but has repeatedly refused to offer a secret ballot. He wasn't having any of it when I interviewed him in October.

Brady said: "Conservative colleagues would have to be consulted and have input. I think it's a given that there would have to be a vote." Asked if it should be a secret ballot, he said: "I think that is inevitable."

Brady, who resigned from Cameron's front bench in 2007 over the issue of grammar schools, also called on the prime minister to do more to put aspiration at the heart of the Tory campaign. Some on the right think that if Cameron falls Brady himself is the kind of dark horse candidate for leader, enjoying enough support among his colleagues to ruffle a few feathers and land himself a big job on Boris Johnson or Theresa May's front bench.

He is also interesting on the need to give ordinary MPs more of a chance to vote their consciences. He was one of 81 Tory rebels who defied Cameron and voted for the Tories to back an in-out referendum on Europe in 2011, a policy adopted the following year.

He told me: "More free votes would be a good thing. On the majority of things that come before the House of Commons it would not be an existential threat to the government of the day if a vote went a different way. The pledge that we will hold an in-out referendum is central to our policy on Europe and central to our offer at the next election. So we got to the right place. It is an indication that members of parliament exercising their independent judgment doesn't cause the sky to fall in. Sometimes it strengthens their party."

It's an interesting place to pitch your tent if you're contemplating a long-shot leadership bid.

Tweet
Anyone who seriously predicts a Tory - Labour coalition should probably be stopped from commenting on politics, using scissors, and driving.
Sean Kemp
@Sean_Kemp VIEW TWEET
UK SECURITY
New asylum loophole
More immigration headaches are looming for Theresa May, as it emerges in today's Sunday Times that criminal asylum seekers are entering Britain with no background checks as a matter of policy.

The paper has obtained a letter to peers from Lord Bates, the Home Office minister, in which he admits that no checks are made because this could increase the risk of persecution for the applicant or their family in their home country. This, Bates wrote, risked "potentially strengthening their claim for asylum".

Frank Field MP, co-chairman of the cross-party group on balanced migration, described the policy as "nonsense on stilts". He said he will question the loophole when parliament returns this week.

Meanwhile the Sun on Sunday has obtained a "buried" government report on further border loopholes that allow guns and drugs to enter the country, prompting the shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, to say: "This is yet more evidence that under Theresa May our borders have become less secure."

Poll
Would you prefer for parties to have more of a consensus, or to be more different from each other?

2015 GENERAL ELECTION
Public rejects 'middle ground' parties - poll
The first polling of 2015 gives us something that is, for me, a surprise result, writes YouGov's Stephan Shakespeare. Before divulging, I invoke Twyman's Law: "If a statistic looks interesting or unusual, it is probably wrong."

For years I had heard voters thirsting for more consensus - but then (exclusively for Red Box, using YouGov's First Verdict polling platform, yesterday, with 615 respondents) I posed the following question: "Over the past 50 years, the clear trend has been for the main political parties to become more similar to each other. Do you think it's better for the country if that trend continues, so there's more consensus, or if that trend reverses, so that the main parties become more different from each other?"

Eighteen per cent wanted the trend to continue, creating "more consensus"; 65 per cent wanted it to reverse, creating "more and clearer differences between the parties" (8 per cent wanted it to stay "as now", 8 per cent said "not sure"). Perhaps it's weariness of coalition that has produced this result against the so-called "middle ground", also leading to increasing support for both Ukip and the Greens. It may be worth reconsidering conventional campaign wisdom about aiming squarely at the centre.

YOUGOV
SW1
Cameron Junior heads to state school
If he survives the vagaries of the election, David Cameron is poised to make Tory history by becoming the first Conservative PM to send his child to state school.

His daughter Nancy is to be offered a place at Grey Coat Hospital academy, a top-performing secondary school within walking distance of Downing Street, sources close to the school revealed. Ten girls apply for each of Grey Coat's 151 places for 11-year-olds.

The Church of England school is rated "outstanding" by Ofsted and appears in Tatler's guide to the best state schools. Michael Gove and Sarah Vine's daughter Beatrice already attends, and staff are understood to have been told before Christmas that Nancy has been enrolled.

UK ECONOMY
New pension pot plans proposed
The pensions minister Steve Webb tells the Sunday Telegraph that he wants to expand the government's radical pensions reforms to those who are already locked in to annuity plans.

Under plans announced in last year's budget and due to come into force in April, new retirees will be able to choose to take control of their savings as a lump sum, or to draw it down in instalments.

But an estimated five million pensioners already have annuity contracts, lasting until death, which guarantee them an annual income. In recent years the value of annuities has plummeted, and critics say they offer poor value to pensioners.

Lib Dem minister Webb tells Tim Ross that he wants to change the law to enable people to sell their annuities to pension funds and insurance firms - a plan he says has gained "considerable support" from the insurance and pensions industry.

He hopes to launch a public consultation and publish detailed plans before the election, and will seek support from Labour to ensure that the plans proceed whoever wins in May.


What The Papers Said
SUNDAY TIMES
The government will force mobile phone companies to cut off phones used by prisoners, with an amendment to the Serious Crime Bill introduced tomorrow. In a memo leaked to the paper, Theresa May writes: "We know of cases of serious crimes including large drug imports, escapes and murders being organised from prison, enabled by illicit mobile phones."

Research by the Labour party finds that a third of Tory candidates in battlefield seats have links to the financial services industry, including 30 sitting MPs. The party has also accepted more than £28 million from donors with links to the industry since 2010. A Tory spokesman called the report a "desperate smokescreen".

YouGov's "policy knockout contest" finds that a clampdown on benefits for migrants is the most popular policy with the public, for the second year running.

INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY
MPs are planning to force fast food companies and manufacturers of chewing gum and cigarettes to contribute to the £1bn a year cost of cleaning up litter.

Backbench Tory MPs are planning to rebel over Theresa May's plan to block jihadist suspects from returning to the UK. The rebels, including the former attorney-general, Dominic Grieve, and David Davis, are planning to support a Labour amendment that would force her to get court approval first.

David Lammy fires the starting pistol on the election-after-next by announcing that he will run for mayor of London.

OBSERVER
The shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, pens an op-ed warning that the schools inspectorate Ofsted should stay out of politics.
MAIL ON SUNDAY
An attempt backed by Theresa May to secure a knighthood for the cricket commentator Geoffrey Boycott was vetoed by the Cabinet Office because of his conviction in France for assaulting a former lover in 1996. It gives us the best headline of the day: "Geoff Boycotted".

The shadow Cabinet Office minister Jonathan Ashworth joins the chorus of cross-party complaints about the underworked "zombie parliament" created by five-year fixed parliaments.

SW1
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"Who will win on May 7 - and who would want to?"
Featuring Times columnists Tim Montgomerie and Rachel Sylvester, plus CEO and Co-Founder of YouGov Stephan Shakespeare. The event will be chaired by Philip Webster.
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Top News
Commentary
1. All the evidence says that Ed will win. Yes, it really could happen
- Adam Boulton, Sunday Times
2. The deficit: Fewer insults, more facts (and figures), please
- John Rentoul, Independent on Sunday
3. There's a vacuum now in British politics. And it's Blair-shaped
- Andrew Rawnsley, The Observer
4. The cuts will carry on in 2015 - but they'll do us good
- Bruce Anderson, Sunday Telegraph
5. Go to bed with Ed and wake up in failing France
- Tony Parsons, Sun on Sunday
Agenda
Monday
MPs return from Christmas recess
Home Office questions
Trial of former Ukip candidate Matthew Smith for alleged electoral malpractice starts in Norwich
Tuesday
Deputy prime minister's questions
Counter-terrorism bill reaches report stage in the Commons
Peers return from Christmas recess
Wednesday
First prime minister's questions of the year
MPs on energy and climate change committee quiz minister Ed Davey on the outcomes of the Lima summit
Nicky Morgan takes questions from the education committee on careers advice follow-ups
Thursday
Oral questions on business, innovation and skills
Constitutional reform committee holds session in Belfast on devolution after the referendum
Friday
Office for National Statistics publishes trade figures
NHS publishes statistics on waiting times at A&E over Christmas

Happy New Year everyone!