The earthquake is over..

"We won well," George Osborne has just told the Today programme. For once - the first time since William Hague in 25 years - a Tory spokesman has a by-election win to crow about. The Chancellor struck the right cautious note though: "We can take some comfort but we know the job isn't done". He praised the Tory "team effort", and won the office bingo by getting "economic plan" in there more than once. And of course he stuck it to Labour for its "disastrous" performance.
Judge for yourself. If you haven't seen them yet, the numbers are:
Con 17,431 45% (-8.9%)
Ukip 10,028 25.9% (+22.1)
Labour 6,842 17.7% (-4.7)
Lib Dems 1,004 2.6% (-17.4)
Turnout: 52.79%
Meanwhile, the sighs of relief among Conservatives are audible. A concerted effort, ranging from strictly enforced attendance by MPs to the Grant Shapps "road trip" initiative to get activists to Newark, worked a treat (Mark Wallace at ConHome details how the seat was won here). But the questions will immediately follow: what confidence can Tories have that the effort can be scaled up to the 80 seats they are pinning their hopes on next year? Come the general election, how will they get activists in safe seats to go campaign elsewhere?
What does the result mean for the four parties? The Tories can be happy that they held a by-election in Government, and put in a spirited effort. Mr Cameron will, as I have suggested, try to define this as a tide-turning moment. If Ukip is smart, it will have an internal conversation about expectation management: it rashly promised great things, and failed to deliver. Nigel Farage's unwise decision to attend a jolly in Malta will be scored against him as a sign of a lack of seriousness. How does he convince us that the UKip soufflé is still rising, not falling? The Lib Dems didn't need telling that their situation is dire, but it does not follow that they will do as badly in the seats they already hold. Labour are the ones who should be shattered by this. Newark is fundamentally Tory territory, but Tony Blair took Newark in 1997. In a by-election against an unpopular administration a year from a general election, Labour's share fell by nearly 5pc. Whatever the national polls say about the situation today, the trends are against Ed Miliband.
On the basis, with all the caveats a by-election demands, Newark may give us a glimpse of what is to come. Two other trends to note, reported from the campaign trail. One Tory activist reports meeting voters claiming they would vote Tory to block Ukip - in other words, reverse tactical voting - the anti protest protest vote, as Michael Deacon describes it. And a Tory MP who did his three days in Newark claimed to detect something similar: voters, he said, were happy to vote Ukip at the European level because MEPs are not linked to a seat. But they didn't want to be the first seat to elect a Ukip MP, because they did not want to be represented at Westminster by a party with reputational issues. Straws in the mind no doubt. Safer to say that an awkward by-election is out of the way and we now wait to see whether Ukip can maintain momentum or whether this will stop them in their tracks; whether the Tories can translate hope into certainty; and whether Labour can get out of its hole. A Tory win, yes, but still great uncertainty.

JUNCKER GETS INTO A SCRAP
Jean-Claude Juncker's leaked remarks to the EPP are everywhere today."I'll not beg Britain, vows Juncker" is the Guardian's splash. "The new battle for Europe" says the Times frontpage. In a private meeting, M Juncker has had a go at practically everyone. He won't "be forced to get on my knees" to appease Mr Cameron. Meanwhile, he believes that the EPP's leaders could be doing more to support him, complaining that he's heard from only two of them. And the British press pack has bruised M Juncker's nerves, and that he's warned his supporters to "be ready for a lot more dirt" will have them worried about exactly what there is to unearth about M Juncker. His comments that abandoning the European drive for austerity would damage Europe's credibility are likely to his hopes of picking up support from the left some harm, too. That Mario Renzi is sounding an increasingly concilatory tone towards Britain is a sign of definite movement in favour of Mr Cameron, although there is still an unwillingness to hand the PM a veto this early on the negotiations. On Today earlier George Osborne refused to comment on M Juncker's comments or candidacy but left no doubt what he thinks: "We want people who understand the need for change. They need to demonstrate they understand people's anger at what's wrong in Europe. It's for anyone who aspires to one of the top jobs to set out their case."
HEYWOOD, P.I.
David Cameron has asked Sir Jeremy Heywood to investigate the row between Theresa May and Michael Gove. "I will get to the bottom of who has said what and what has happened," Mr Cameron told reporters, "and I will sort it all out once I have finished these important meetings I am having here". It's important to remember, as I noted yesterday, that the row is not just ministerial handbags; at its heart is a deadly serious conversation about how Britain deals with Islamic extremism. It iswidely reported that Ofsted will find that the schools in question are leaving children ill-prepared for life in modern Britain.
THE AUDACITY OF NOPE
Barack Obama's endorsement of the No campaign is everywhere. "The United Kingdom has been an extraordinary partner to us," Mr Obama told reporters, "From the outside at least, it's worked pretty well.". As I explain in my blog, that the left's darling has endorsed the Union is a hammer blow to the SNP's conceit - nurtured first by Gordon Brown in the 1980s and 1990s - that England and Great Britain are in efect a right-wing Tory thing inflicted on Scotland against its will. With attention turning away from the Westminster squabbles and towards the campaign to save the Union, there are worse starts than an endorsement from the President of the United States.
"IT'S NOT ME, IT'S YOU," ED TELLS NICK
Ed Miliband appears to be cooling on the prospect of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the Indy reports. Reports of a meeting between Jonny Oates, Mr Clegg's chief of staff, and Neil Sherlock, a Liberal Democrat donor with Labour peers Lord Wood and Lord Adonis, had Labour partisans worried that a deal was being prepared between the parties. The suggestion is that Labour will seek a "looser arrangement" than a full Coalition, which may serve the interests of some Liberals as well (must I invoke the image of Tim Farron, lying on the groundcovered in butter and jam again?). However, it seems...somewhat odd to rule out any options before anyone has voted.
THAT'S NOT WHAT I RECALL, SAYS CARSWELL
Nick Clegg's comments that the Recall Bill has been watered down because of Tory opposition have drawn a furious response from Douglas Carswell, the Guardian reports. "I wouldn't hold it against Clegg if he opposed the idea," Mr Carswell said, "but what's absolutely unforgivable is that he opposed it but pretends to be in favour".
A WARNING LIGHT THAT NEVER GOES OUT
The IMF presents its annual health check on the British economy later today. Expect a somewhat rosier picture than previous years, but with the usual caveats about Britain - specifically London's - overheating housing market. Also a cause for concern in the Treasury is the ECB's decision to charge a negative rate of interest, becoming the first of the world's monetary superpowers to do so. It's a reminder that the Eurozone's problems are far from over. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has the story.
FARAGE TO IGNORE THE DISABLED
Nigel Farage, who, as you would expect, has not been having the best day, is reported angrily denying the Mirror's story that there was anything extracurricular about his helping hand for travel chief Ande Soteri at a jolly in Malta. "The next time I see a disabled person, I am just ignoring them. I actually helped her by carrying her bag."
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here.

TWEETS & TWITS

A new dawn has broken, has it not?:
@RobertJenrick: Good morning #Newark & thank you.

DAILY POLL

YouGov latest:
Con 31%, Lab 37%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%

COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Fraser Nelson - You can't reduce a 300-year-old union to a mushy peas analogy
Jenny McCartney - The trial that has to be heard in secret - and don't ask why
Benedict Brogan - Barack Obama has endorsed the Union - from the Left
Stephen Bush - Tory dawn raids are closing the gap in the ground war
Best of the Rest
Philip Collins - The Tory split on Europe can't be reconciled
Simon Jenkins - Secret justice may be right for Putin's Russia - but not peacetime Britain

AGENDA

1100 LONDON: George Osborne and Christine Lagarde at IMF press conference on Article IV report on UK economy.

Pipeline to Mirpur..

A few years ago one of the country's most senior intelligence officials explained to me that one of the greatest threats to Britain was the "pipeline" of extremism that connected the Asian Muslim community here with very specific parts of Pakistan, namely Mirpur in Kashmir. Successive administrations, he went on, had failed to do anything about the religious and particularly cultural medievalism being imported to Britain by successive waves of immigrants from the undeveloped parts of Pakistan. He cited feudal attitudes to family, the place of women and the role of education as a toxic mix that led to ghettoisation and the radicalisation of ignorant young men addled by exposure to the lures of the West. Until the "pipeline to Mirpur" was shut down, the UK would continue to have a growing problem with extremism.
This deadly serious background is worth keeping in mind when contemplating the fall-out from this ministerial bust-up, far more than the question of whether those doing the feuding are mere "pussycats" compared to the Blair-Brown psychodrama, as Chris Grayling said this morning.We now know that its origins lay in an editorial lunch on Monday at the Times, when Mr Gove was critical of the Home Office and Charles Farr, the top spook who works for Theresa May, and who is in a relationship with her special adviser Fiona Cunningham. It seems the Home Office discovered that the Times was preparing to report Mr Gove's views, and gave its own, robust response. What has really got Whitehall talking is that the May camp then decided to put online her ministerial write-round letter detailing Mrs May's attack on Mr Gove. It was this remarkable bit of escalation that detonated in Downing Street. It was so bad that consideration was given to sacking Ms Cunningham on the spot (though we should stress that no public evidence exists that she was the person responsible).
The Mail has gone to town with a "Ministers at War" spread, a picture of Ms Cunningham and Mr Farr, and a report on "Theresa's leggy aide, an ex-spy and the affair that fanned the flames". The Telegraph's Sue Cameron looks at the growing power of Mrs May, the Times splashes on"Angry Cameron rebukes rivals as Tory rift widens". Across the piece the sense is that Mr Cameron blew his top and gave Mr Gove a particularly hard time. Some suggest he might be moved in a reshuffle a a result. In the Guardian, Tory sources accuse Mrs May in turn of "laying out her standard" for the leadership.
Mr Gove has yet to respond to the charges levelled at him by Mrs May, namely that his department ignored warnings of Islamist entryism in schools. Next week the results of the various "Trojan horse" investigations including Ofsted's will be published. I am told that these will rebut in detail all the charges. Meanwhile the Tories are left contemplating two issues: Mrs May's ambition and Mr Gove's reputation. Both have admirers, and while Mr Gove is having to cope with the consequences of his repeated interventions in the affairs of other departments, neither has actually suffered a political setback. Rather, it is the workings of government that are under scrutiny. Mr Cameron knows he cannot afford to have private ministerial exchanges becoming public property in the pursuit of individual feuds. It happens too often for comfort (recall the leak of the Laws letter). His pitch is one of competence and grown-up government, and this episode looks anything but.    
 
THE WORLD ELSEWHERE
Much of the coverage of the G7's meeting in Brussels centres on David Cameron's continuing attempt to block Jean-Claude Juncker. Mr Juncker declared yesterday that he  is "more confident than ever that I will be the next European Commission President". Sources close to Mr Juncker now say that it "would be advisable to pick up a phone" to avoid "a lot of damage" to Britain's prospects for renegotiation. Angela Merkel, however, has indicated that imposing Mr Juncker without Britain's consent may be a step too far.
More important than the jostling over Mr Juncker, though, are the G7's discussions of the crisis in Ukraine and the question of how to tackle the Russian threat. Reducing dependence on Russian energy and tackling Russian aggression are at the top of the agenda before Mr Cameron meets with Vladimir Putin later today. That's the background to the planned war games in Poland, where up to 1,000 British troops could join in a military exercise just over the border with Ukraine later this year. As Con Coughlin explains, the show of force is a clear signal of intent by the West that it will no tolerate further territorial aggression from Mr Putin. Ben Farmer has the story.
TURNING THE PAGE
The row over recall dominates the coverage of the Queen's Speech. The proposed Bill will allow voters to recall their MPs only in the event of serious wrongdoing - and after being signed off by a committee of MPs. It's a "con", says Zac Goldsmith. "Voters will learn that they have been duped and will be enraged," he says, perhaps overestimating the level of public interest in the measure. Defending the bill, Tim Farron told the World at One that it was better to have a bad Recall Bill than none at all (this is Labour's thinking on the whole 'zombie parliament' line). The speech itself gave us the usual embarrassing spectacle of Her Majesty struggling through political wonk-speak. Ann Treneman complains that the speech read as if it had been "concocted by a machine". It was all too much for Viscount Aithrie, a page boy, who fainted during the speech (watch the video here). It's all part of the Ceremonial Fainting of the Page Boy, Michael Deacon explains.   Shame: he missed an excellent speech by Penny Mordaunt, taking in everything from Hugh Gaitskell to the Royal Navy (you can listen to it here).
DAWN RAIDS IN NEWARK, LATE NIGHTS IN MALTA
By the time you read this, around 1,000 Tory activists, led by Lord Feldman and Grant Shapps, will have finished a series of "dawn raids" around Newark, blanketing doormats throughout the constituency with reminders to vote. (Read Christopher Hope's report from Newark here). Also up in the small hours was Nigel Farage, who, the Mirror reports, went to a jolly in Malta after a conference organised by the Institute of Travel and Tourism. Photographs appear to show Mr Farage arm in arm with the Institute's chief, Ande Soteri. Mr Farage denies any impropriety: "Good god no. I had never even met her before yesterday." Mr Farage's absence from the Newark campaign (he has visited only once) may be the subject of mutterings may be the subject of mutterings should the party make a strong showing.
KIM JONG ALEX
Alistair Darling sits down with Jason Cowley in this week's New Statesman. Comparing Alex Salmond to Kim Jong-il for his response to the Ukip surge in Scotland (it's all the BBC's fault, says Mr Salmond), Mr Darling warns of a "culture of intimidation"; where senior figures are kept quiet by nationalist threats and bullying.  That the CBI, academics and businessmen across Scotland have all felt the wrath of Yes supporters for voicing concerns about independence has been one of the nastier elements of the referendum campaign. Meanwhile, an open debate still feels very far from view - the hope will be that Mr Salmond takes up Mr Darling's invitation to a televised debate.
IDS TACKLES THE BIG ISSUES
Iain Duncan Smith has accused the Big Issue of providing a back-door route for European immigrants to claim in-work benefits, the Times reports. The remarks where made during a Q&A on welfare policy in Berlin. A spokesman for the Big Issue has responded, saying that the loophole in question - now closed - was the creation of Mr Duncan Smith's department.  THIS IS MADNESS. THIS IS...SPARTA!
"Athens was an open city and Sparta kicked people out. Go and look at the ruins of Athens and Sparta now and ask which of the two cities made the greatest contribution to civilisation." A defence of immigration that could only have come from Boris Johnson.

The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here. 

TWEETS & TWITS

Knock knock. Who's there?:
@grantshapps: Very early morning start supporting @RobertJenrickand the people of Newark on by-election day:
 

DAILY POLL

YouGov latest:
Con 32%, Lab 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%

COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Peter Oborne - This Coalition can be compared with our greatest governments
Benedict Brogan - Last stand? Hardly. Prepare for the Coalition to carry on
Jeremy Warner - Queen's Speech: Yawn. Where's the bold, deregulatory agenda?
Sue Cameron - Has Theresa May the mettle to follow the Iron Lady?
Best of the Rest
Rafael Behr - Cameron is running out of time show that he is serious about keeping Britain in the EU
Tim Montgomerie - Slog, snog and snug: the Tories' triple whammy
James Forsyth - Nigel Farage is becoming a moderniser

AGENDA

1145 LONDON: Health workers' protests. Nationwide demonstrations by health workers over pay, including protests outside the health department HQ in Whitehall.
1200 LIVERPOOL: Protests outside the annual conference of the NHS Confederation in Liverpool at 12 noon.
1230 LONDON: John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldrige discuss 'Reinventing the State' at the IfG. 

Blue on blue..

Dark business at the crossroads of the Home Office and the Department for Education overnight. Michael Gove is in a spot of bother, and seems to have got himself into a violent and now public argument with Theresa May and her spymaster Charles Farr. The action starts in the Times, with its splash "Cabinet at war over extremists in schools", and continues on Today, where the news bulletins major on Mrs May accusing Mr Gove of ignoring warnings of Islamist extremists in schools.
Quite how this started is not immediately clear. The Times leads on Mr Gove's concerns about a "Militant Tendency" of extremist Muslims plotting to take over schools, and says he blames "their influence on a reluctance within Whitehall, especially in the Home Office, to confront extremism unless it develops into terrorism…" Ofsted is due to publish the results of its investigations into Birmingham schools next week.
But the story then goes on to record an "extraordinary development", namely what at first looks like a brutal counter-strike by the May camp, including this from a Home Office source: "Why is the DfE wanting to blame other people for information they had in 2010? Lord knows what more they have overlooked on the subject of the protection of kids in state schools? It scares me."
The substance is that Mr Gove has let it be known that he is unimpressed by the Home Office's efforts to counter extremism. According to Greg Hurst of the Times, who has plainly been extensively briefed, Mr Gove "is particularly critical of Charles Farr, the former intelligence chief who runs the office for security and router terrorism within the Home Office." Mr Farr, I would suggest, is not a man to be trifled with, and is highly thought of by Mrs May.
At the centre of this is a letter from Mrs May which has found its way into the Times. It looks like a ministerial write-round letter, and we should remind ourselves that similar ones have been leaked before, and on those occasions the finger of blame was pointed at the DfE. One of Mrs May's many qualities is that she does not normally brief against colleagues. It would surprise me if she has done on this occasion. Whatever the source, we now know that she is angry about the way Mr Gove has tried to blame her for what she evidently believes is a failure on his watch. Really angry.
Why might that be? Mr Gove has been having a rough time this year. Some say the shine has gone off the Education Secretary. His colleagues admire him, but are also wary of his habit of wading into the affairs of other departments. The Times reports: "Some in the party believe that Mr Gove has engaged in too many unnecessary and messy disputes..." He is also an ally of George Osborne, who in turn is in a battle with Mrs May for the future leadership of the party. It may not be a coincidence that this has appeared on the same day a poll shows Mrs May is now the runaway favourite among Tories to succeed Mr Cameron. Mr Gove's office has put out a statement expressing his admiration for his colleague. Mrs May is trying to play it down. But what was supposed to be a day of good PR for the Queen's Speech will be distracted by tales of Tory manoeuvrings at the top, the prospects for Mrs May, and the state of Mr Gove's reputation. Fascinating.

THE START OF A LONG GOODBYE?
A "final bid for unity"? Or a last attempt to rebuff the accusations that this is a "zombie parliament"? David Cameron and Nick Clegg's joint foreword to the legislative agenda is partly both, but it's also a reminder that, as they put it, "four years on, our parties are still governing together and still taking bold steps". Few gave the Coalition any hope of lasting this far; and a list of achievements that include much-needed public sector reform and the beginnings of economic recovery. That Messrs Cameron and Clegg are coming together like this  - plus Mr Clegg's support for the attempt to block Jean-Claude Juncker - will fuel speculation about a second Coalition after May 2015, and, as our leader notes, the joint foreword "almost amounts to an appeal to voters to deliver the same result next time". It seems more likely that this is the beginning of the end. Before all that, though, there's life in the old zombie parliament yet.
Tougher sentences for slavemasters. changes to the law to allow fracking to take place underneath people's homes, further controls on immigration, cuts to red tape, exemptions to green targets for small builders and further pension reforms, including a new type of 'pooled risk' (a fuller account of what's in and what's not is available here). Yes,as I blogged last night, there are some turkeys in there, of which the Recall Bill is the prime specimen. (We already have a way to fire MPs we disapprove of - they are called general elections). And for all the Mirror's leader grumbles at the lack of legislation, and Labour will say that the lack of legislation shows a government that is out of action, a government that gets out of the way and spends less time passing laws is a feature, not a bug, of Conservative rule. 
MERKEL GOES FOR LAGARDE
The papers are full of the story that Angela Merkel has asked Francois Hollande if the IMF chief, Christine Lagarde, would make an acceptable President of the Commission.  Meanwhile, "Get Juncker" appears to be the order of the day on Fleet Street. "Six reasons why he's the most dangerous man in Europe" screams the Sun. He hasn't had a proper job, he's a self-confessed liar, he would drop crime safeguards, and he seeks a bigger EU with its own army is the charge sheet. "Democracy is a dirty word to this federalist zealot" is the headline to Leo McKinstry's denunciation of Jean-Claude Juncker in the Mail, while  the Times' leader warns that Mr Juncker's appointment "would stifle reform, enrage an already angry European fringe and render all but impossible a worthwhile negotiation  Britain's relationship with the European Union".  The danger for David Cameron is that blocking Mr Juncker may prove beyond him - his list of allies is no longer than it was yesterday, while the German government denies the story. "I cannot imagine what kind of brain thought up this stunt," says Ann Treneman. 
BITTER, VINCE?
"Plot row drives Clegg and Cable to drink" is the Guardian's take. In an attempt to quell fears that the two men were irrevocably split, Nick Clegg and Vince Cable went for a pint at the Queen's Head yesterday. The papers aren't convinced ("Pull the other one, Nick!" is the Mail's take.), and that Dr Cable was unable to explain why he'd kept the DPM in the dark about Lord Oakeshott's plotting only added to the farcical air. Most reporters were shut outside, watching, while, Jim Waterson reports, passers-by "kept asking who was inside, hoping for a Kardashian".  "I cannot imagine what kind of brain thought up this stunt," is Ann Treneman's verdict, while Michael Deacon wonders where the Liberals will organise their next shindig. He wouldn't recommend a brewery.
STRANGE DAYS IN NEWARK
As the campaign enters its last day, the Newark by-election has descended into class war. Ukip's Roger Helmer has attacked his Conservative rival, Robert Jenrick, over his £5 million property portfolio, in contrast to his own modest wealth (excluding his pension, Mr Helmer says, it is not more than a million) . Mr Jenrick may well feel that if wealth and success are disqualifying factors in a Conservative parliamentary candidate these are strange days indeed. On the same day, Mr Helmer has praised his Conservative rival, Mr Jernick, as "a very pleasant young man, the kind any woman would love her daughter to pick as a husband". "Or their son?" a wag asked. The FT reports that Mr Helmer declined to reply. 
IDS VS EU
Iain Duncan Smith has described the European Union's interference in Britain's welfare system as "unwarranted and unwanted", and risks undermining the public's faith in free movement. "We must be clear that freedom of movement is about work," says Mr Duncan Smith. (Steven Swinford has the story.) If this is to be an aspect of renegotiation, it is one that may command the support of Angela Merkel, who has said that it is freedom of movement "into work and not social systems". 
START MAKING BABIES, CREASY SAYS
Stella Creasy's remarks that women would have to "breed for Britain" if immigration were halted in order to keep public services running areeverywhere.  Speaking to the Blairite pressure group Progress, Ms Creasy warned Ed Miliband against further sops to Ukip on immigration. There are now more people over the age of 65 than under 16 in Britain, she warns. Making up the gap will require womeen like me to "have a lot of children very quickly". 
HARRIS ON BLAIR
He seemed like an "ordinary guy". Then he became "passionately interested in making money" and bombing people.  And his decision to quit the Commns was a "personal tragedy for him and a tragedy for the Labour Party, because a lot of what he stood for was right".  "Everyone was left abandoned, and Labour has suffered because of it". Robert Harris, the journalist turned novelist, has probably been crossed off Mr Tony's Christmas list after this interview with Total Politics. 
WHERE'S BORIS?
Good spot by Sebastian Shakespeare in today's Mail. Boris Johnson is not on the approved candidates' list. Has time run out for the Mayor to make his return?
IT'S THE MAIL WOT WON IT!
A plastic bag levy will be introduced in the Coalition's last year. "At last! Plastic bags will be banished" is the Mail's splash after years of campaigning.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here. 

TWEETS & TWITS

Never happened under Labour, of course:
@BarrySheerman: Once again Govt has leaked most of Queens Speech content before the Queen has had breakfast! 

DAILY POLL

YouGov latest:
Con 32%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%

COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Telegraph View - The Coalition's next big step - or the last farewell
Mary Riddell - Ed Miliband will live or die on the altar of immigration
Daniel Hannan - Which faceless Eurocrat did you vote for?
Best of the Rest
Alice Thomson - The odd couple who may just save the union
Rob Philpot and Adam Harrison - 'Farage is deeply unpatriotic': Stella Creasy interview
Jesse Bowie - Fact to fiction: Robert Harris interview

AGENDA

0930 LONDON:  State opening of Parliament.
1130 LONDON: Queen's Speech.
1500 LONDON: Former deputy first minister of Northern Ireland Mark Durkan MP and Dave Cox, former director of the Historical Enquiries Team (HET) of independent detectives, give evidence to the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee about the government's administrative scheme for fugitive republicans. 

Cameron's Constitutional Revolution..

The implications of the Strathclyde recommendations for giving Scotland control of its income tax and reviewing the workings of the Union are only just beginning to be understood. Indeed, the coverage in the London editions, with the honourable exception of the FT, is fairly patchy. Yet the proposals published yesterday by Lord Strathclyde are revolutionary. They certainly are for the Tories. You don't have to read Alan Cochrane's "Doubting Thomas" analysis to see the dangers. Follow them through to their logical conclusion and it is hard not to conclude that this puts the Conservatives on the road to championing a new, federal model for the United Kingdom.
The former leader of the Lords was careful to secure the blessing of David Cameron and George Osborne, and crucially Scottish leader Ruth Davidson, before going public with his idea for handing Scotland responsibility for financing between 40 and 60% of its annual expenditure. This is intended to be one down the chimney for Alex Salmond, designed on the expectation that he will refuse it outright. In our leader we point out that Lord Strathclyde's report "reverses decades of Conservative policy, turning the party away from a deep-rooted scepticism about devolution into its strongest supporter". But we also say that the proposed debate on the future constitutional balance of the UK should come before new powers are handed over, rather than after, to avoid imbalances that favour Scotland over Wales, Northern Ireland or England.
This is the key bit of the Strathclyde model, and what makes it so interesting and potentially transformative. He proposes convening a committee of all the parliaments and assembles of the UK to discuss how the UK is run and how power and responsibilities are allocated. The implication is obvious: it needs to change. Lord Strathclyde knows his constitutional politics. He also knows, after watching the mess the current devolution model has made and the wider state of British politics in an age of popular frustration with its practitioners, that the status quo cannot hold. Power needs to be rejigged, and that means looking to the other parts of the UK too. As the FT says in its leader "it should be the foundation of a broad constitutional settlement covering all the United Kingdom". If it is indeed a No vote in September, then the Strathclyde proposals come in to play, and at a stroke we find ourselves having a national debate about how power is allocated across the UK, and how our democracy works. We like to say that David Cameron has presided over a policy revolution. But this could be epic.

TORIES HEADED FOR WARKOVER
Dave's visit to Newark - and the Ashcroft poll showing the Tories storming ahead in the by-election - is everywhere. "Tories Wark It" say the Sun (My sides!).The key numbers are: Cons 42% Ukip 27% Labour 20%.   Ukip aren't giving up yet, with Roger Helmer telling the Mail: "Frankly, I don't recognise these figures.", while the Times reports that the People's Army are leafleting Labour supporters telling them that only Ukip can beat the Tories in Newark (they really are the new Lib Dems, aren't they?). Meanwhile, Michael Deacon is nonplussed by Dave's remarks that an member of Parliament is for life, not just for Christmas: "Dog owners are not typically invited to switch dogs after 11 months, nor are they typically invited to switch dogs again every five years thereafter." Ashcroft's national figures are rather more alarming to Tory hopes (Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 6% and Ukip on 19%), although some Tories mutter darkly about  the reliability of Lord Ashcroft's polling, and his motives (25pc nationally? Really?). They reckon if one wanted to encourage dangerous complacency in Newark, but dangerous panic nationally, these would be the kind of numbers needed. Sour grapes, no doubt. I've written about the Tories' shaky prospects in my column.
CAMERON MERKS JUNCKER
A politician who "no-one has heard of", who "does not understand" the need for reform. That's David Cameron's latest salvo against Jean-Claude Juncker. The PM's allies are growing - he is understood to have the support of Italy's Matteo Renzi, Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, the Swede Fredrik Reinfeldt and the Hungarian premier Viktor Orban - but he's some way off assembling a big enough minority - 38% of the EU population - to block Mr Juncker. That leaves him relying on diplomacy, which could be further compromised if his Conservatives and Reformists group admits the anti-Euro Alternative für Deutschland. "We have a sister party in the German CDU/CSU and we are not looking for another," a Tory official tells this morning's FT, but not all his MEPs agree. After Angela Merkel signalled her continuing support for Mr Juncker, both Nirj Deva and Julie Girling signalled they would now vote to admit the AfD. Elmar Brok, a senior CDU MEP, has warned that there will be repercussions if the Tories do buddy up with Ms Merkel's Eurosceptic rivals. There's the additional headache for Downing Street that Mr Cameron's choice for the European Commission, Andrew Lansley, is attracting opposition on the backbenchers and the grassroots. "He's a cipher for Cameron and Osborne," one Tory MP from the right has told the FT. The appointment suggests that "Dave doesn't have a plan or a vision," says an MP from the party's pro-EU tendency. 
CHANGE EVERYTHING, OSBORNE TOLD
One does wonder what they put in the water in Brussels sometimes. "Europe tells Britain to increase taxes" is the Times splash."Curb Help to Buy and end property boom, says Brussels" says the Telegraph frontpage. The European Commission has called on the Coalition to change its deficit reduction plan, decreasing the level of public sector restraint and instead increase taxes. They've also warned that Help to Buy needs to be reined in and more attention paid to cooling the housing market. "As one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe, we always listen to the commission's reccomendations with interest," is the official response. Privately, many more may concur with page 2 of the Mail: "Now that's rich!"
AFTER THE LORD MAYOR'S SHOW
The fallout from Tony Blair's remarks yesterday continue. The Mail carries a hearty endorsement from Douglas Carswell...no, wait, sorry, I've read that wrong. "Mind-boggling arrogance," is Mr Carswell's take on Mr Blair's speech yesterday. Mr Blair said that it was "dangerous and wrong" to claim that halting immigrants would solve the problems of "white, working class, unemployed youth". What's needed is a massive increase in skills and opportunities. That he appears to be aligning himself with David Cameron's anti-Juncker campaign will only fuel speculation that Mr Blair still craves the top European job he missed out on in 2009. Meanwhile, Mr Blair's pro-immigration noises have been challenged by John Denham, a close ally of Ed Miliband. Writing for LabourList, Mr Denham says that "for the forseeable future, it would better if fewer EU migrants came here". Whether Mr Blair regards his former colleague as 'dangerous and wrong' is an open question.
CLEGG CLAIMS CREDIT
Nick Clegg's torrid fortnight means that we're in for another bout of differentiation. The Guardian reports that Mr Clegg will attempt to take credit for a series of measures in the last Queen's Speech, including recall legislation, two major reforms to the pension system, and tax-free childcare for working parents. The fear for the DPM and his party that these measures end up like the threshold raise, which voters like, but don't associate with Mr Clegg or the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are braced for further obstruction; Mr Clegg intends to do his utmost to block a referendum bill and to dissuade David Cameron from using the Parliament Act to force the matter through. You can readthe full story here. 
YELLOW, BUT NOT YELLOW-BELLIED
Speaking of Liberal obstruction; a new study reveals that the Liberal Democrats are the most rebellious MPs, the Times reports. No Liberal backbencher has kept completely loyal to the party whip, with Andrew George the most rebellious. The new figures - from Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart's long-running study of Parliamentary discipline - also reveals the six backbenchers who have become more rebellious year-on-year; five are Conservatives from the 2010 intake: Tracey Crouch, Charlotte Leslie, Philip Lee, Chris Pincher, and Mark Pawsey. The sixth is Tim Farron. 
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here. 

TWEETS & TWITS

@ericjoyce: I like this @dailytelegraph picture of The Queen giving it right in the face to quitter Kings everywhere in Spain. 

DAILY POLL

YouGov latest:
Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 8%, UKIP 17%

COMMENT

In the Telegraph
Benedict Brogan - The earthquake is over, but the Tories are still on shaky ground
Iain Martin - The Scottish Nationalists are losing it
Dan Hodges - Why is Fifa 'corrupt'? Because it can be
Best of the Rest
Janan Ganesh - Ukip has exposed the tension in the Tory soul
Rachel Sylvester - Let's cut our comic-book leaders down to size

AGENDA

0700 LONDON:  Nationwide releases its house price study for May. 
1550 LONDON: William Hague at Chatham House conference. 

Blair and Junkers..

Good morning. Today's back-to-school headlines illustrate the perils facing the Prime Minister on Europe. Downing Street has denied German claims that David Cameron said Britain would leave the EU if Jean-Claude Juncker is chosen as president, but that hasn't stopped them being widely reported. In reply Mr Cameron has been accused of "blackmail" by Mr Juncker (btw, someone really should do an audit of his time as the finance minister of Luxembourg who consolidated its reputation as a force in the murky world of tax arbitrage). "Stick it up your Juncker" is the Sun's groaner. Accompanying the headlines is a sense that Mr Cameron has gone public too early on Britain's opposition to the Luxembourg federalist. Ian Traynor makes the point usefully in the Guardian.

Meanwhile Mr Cameron must contend with the appearance of Tony Blair on the scene, who in a speech to the CBI this morning will try to put himself as the head of the "Save Europe" movement. He's given a preview of his argument to the Times, his outlet of choice, which leads with "Blair tells Europe to wake up". The suggestion that he is making a late play to be considered for the presidency is denied, but rule nothing out: former premier, strong record as pro-European, attitude of a reformer, big beast, speaks French…you see the gleam in his eye.

But instead of his future, consider what Mr Blair's intervention says about Mr Cameron. The Prime Minister is vulnerable to the charge that his position on Europe is not a big strategic argument based on principles, but a series of carefully judged tactical gambits designed to keep one step ahead of Nigel Farage and numbers of his backbenchers. "It has to be a debate elevated to a Europe-wide level, with Britain playing a leading role, not just a negotiation of Britain's terms of membership. It has to be about what is good for Europe as well as what is good for Britain," Mr Blair says. In fairness, this is precisely the kind of argument Mr Cameron sketched out in his big Europe speech, but he hasn't made it his main theme. He now finds himself being given lessons in statesmanship by the guy who won three elections from the centre. Awkward. This is a big week for the PM - a revolutionary play on giving Scotland control over taxes today, Queen's Speech Wednesday, Newark Thursday - but as ever it is Europe that tugs at the sleeve. Mr Cameron chose to make it a battleground. Every move has consequences. He has made his against Mr Juncker, and yet it is by no means clear that it will succeed. That is a perilous position to be in.  

 
END OF THE POCKET-MONEY PARLIAMENTLord Strathclyde's report into the future of Scotland in the event of a 'No' vote - is due to be published today. As our Scottish edition revealedon Saturday, the report will recommend that Holyrood be given control of income tax. It would hand 40% of Holyrood's funding directly to MSPs; and be accompanied with a 40% reduction in the grant from Westminster. The move will reverse decades of Tory party policy; George Osborne and David Cameron are understood to want the party to go from being seen as devolution's opponents to its strongest supporters. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the party in Scotland, who will attend the publication of the report alongside Lord Strathclyde, believes that the move will bring real accountability to Scotland's politics. "We cannot continue with a pocket-money parliament which gets its allowance from Westminster and then spends it as it pleases," Ms Davidson said. The changes show that the Conservatives understand that devolution is here to stay; and further change is necessary both to safeguard the Union and to ensure that the Scottish parliament pays its way. The SNP line will be that the whole loaf is better than half, but it represents a further weakening of Alex Salmond's line that a Tory government in London spells the end for further devolution in Scotland.
LABOUR'S TAX BOMBSHELL?
"Labour plans big rise in NHS spending" is the Indy's splash. The party is drawing up plans to go into the next election with a manifesto pledge to increase spending on the NHS, shadow Cabinet sources reveal. The favoured mechanism is a hike in National Insurance (I can almost hear the champagne corks popping in CCHQ now) and while Labour is alive to the risks of going into the election promising a tax rise, they are reportedly spooked by marginal polling that shows that only 29% of people rate Labour as the most trusted party on the NHS. What's worth noting, though, is the remarkable absence of Ed Balls from the story. It may be that the exclusive is an attempt by Jon Cruddas and Andy Burnham, both of whom are named as being thought to support the move, to force the Shadow Chancellor's hand.
FUNDING FARAGE
"Nige's bid to target Ed voters" says the Sun. "Farage's new bid to steal the Tory vote" says the Mail. Nigel Farage appeared on the Marr show this weekend (there's a first time for everything, etc.) and unveiled a couple of new policies. It's all designed to fend off accusations that Ukip is one-dimensional, and the mooted proposals - a grammar school in every town, taking people on the minimum wage out of tax, reducing the top rate to 40p - will doubtless  poll well amongst the voters that Mr Farage is trying to appeal to. There's the small question of how on earth Mr Farage would fund a new school in every town while slashing taxes across the board.

RESHUFFLE RUMOURS
Who'll be up and who'll be out in the next reshuffle? Dave is set to refresh his team after the Newark by-election, with Ken Clarke, Sir George Young and Andrew Lansley all due to step down.  Olly Wright in the Indy says that Esther McVey and Nicky Morgan could be two of  the winners. Mrs Morgan, who has been attending Cabinet since the resignation of Mrs Miller in her role as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, may get a department of her own, while Ms McVey, a rare Northerner in the parliamentary party, may be an asset in the election campaign.

WANTED: NEW PRAETORIAN GUARD
Lord Ashdown's appearance on the Marr Show is everywhere (Georgia Graham has the story). Lord Ashdown's remarks, rather than putting an end to the "Liberals in disarray" headlines, seem to have extended them. Lord Ashdown's decision to reveal that he warned Lord Oakeshott against making trouble for the leadership seems, on the face of it, unwise: as Lord Ashdown warned the former Lib Dem peer that he would first remove his head and then his testicles, only to see Lord Oakeshott go on with his coup regardless seems to be a rather public admission of weakness. It was Lord Oakeshott's bungling, rather than Lord Ashdown's rage, that did for Vince Cable's ally, after all. Mr Clegg is secure for the present, but after the election, opponents of Nick Clegg may remember that Lord Oakeshott was neither beheaded nor castrated.

THE BONES OF WHAT YOU BELIEVE
"Now HS2 route is opposed by Church" is the Telegraph splash. The proposed route goes through several cemeteries, attracting the opposition of the Archbishop's Council, one of the Church of England's most powerful bodies. Previous government excavations have shown precious little respect for the long dead, and the C of E wants legislative assurances that it will be different this time, or failing that, an alternative route.  Seeing as the Church is not exactly short of representation in the Upper House, concessions may have be made in advance of the third reading. The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here. 

TWEETS & TWITS
Not the best ending to a night out:
@drwollastonmp: Just imagine, you go down the pub for a drink with #Farage but find you're stuck with #Helmer propping up the bar



DAILY POLL
YouGov latest:
Con 33%, Lab 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

COMMENT
In the TelegraphTelegraph View - At last, a sign that Europe is listening
Rob Crilly - Don't blame Islam for Meriam's awful fate

Charles Moore - Are freedom's enemies being proved right?
Something from the Weekend
Matthew d'Ancona - Nigel Farage, the Purple Pimpernel, can't remain an outsider forever
Janet Daley - 'We hear you' is just pious codswallop
John Rentoul - The Scottish referendum will decide David Cameron's place in history
Best of the Rest
Melanie Philips - Cry 'cover-up' and ignore the lessons of Iraq
Wolfgang Munchau - Renzi needs to organise an Italian rescue




AGENDA
0930 LONDON:  Bank of England releases its Money and Credit report for March.
0930 GLASGOW: Publication of the Strathclyde Report on further devolution. Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson will join commission chairman Lord Strathclyde.
0930 LONDON: Boris Johnson to speak at Policing Global Cities: Gangs Summit.

What earthquake..

BREAKING: Sir John Major has just finished speaking. He said that Ukip would fade away and rebuffed suggestions that David Cameron's renegotiation would fail; highlighting his own success in negotiating opt-outs of the Social Chapter and Mr Cameron's earlier victories in Europe. He said it was "a pity" that the papers concerning Tony Blair and George W. Bush's correspondence will be restricted to a gist. He said it will keep a lingering sense of suspicion around the war and will embarrass Mr Blair as the architect of Freedom of Information, but it remains outside the powers of the current government. His suggestion that the last Labour government - or Mr Blair himself - could intervene to publish the papers in more detail will doubtless cause ructions. 

EARTHQUAKE, WHAT EARTHQUAKE?
Good morning. Nick Clegg will be staying on as leader of the Liberal Democrats. Ed Miliband will be Labour's standard-bearer in 2015. Meanwhile, David Cameron continues on with the mission of renegotiation ahead of a referendum in 2017.

Nigel Farage's earthquake seems remarkably short on aftershocks. After the results, politicians of all stripes tramped into the television studios and told us all that they would listen - and learn.  The Mail and the Sun report that Theresa May has suggested that freedom of movement "needs to be looked at" - but there is opposition within the Cabinet. Meanwhile, Ed Miliband believes that the cost of living crisis explains why people are voting for Ukip. None of these stories feel particularly driven by the events of last Thursday.

This looks very much like a political class is that neither listening nor learning. That a Labour MP, Alex Cunningham, is in hot waterfor calling Gillian Duffy a "bigoted woman", adds to the sense that nothing much has been changed by the Ukip spring. It may be that, for all the sound and fury around Ukip's success in the local and European elections, the circus - or the steel band - has already packed up and moved on. They may have a chance for an encorenext Thursday in Newark (although today's Survation poll for the Sun, which has numbers of Cons 36%, Ukip 28% and Lab 27%, suggests that this is unlikely). Mr Farage's impact on political affairs may be more fleeting than he will have hoped. 


ALL BUILD AND NO BUBBLEThe second phase of Help to Buy is boosting sales in the regions; not as feared, stoking a bubble in London. The findings from the Nationwide Building Society, coupled with Treasury analysis, are in the Times, FT and the Telegraph. Sir Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England, warned that housing prices were the "brightest light" on the Bank's risk dashboard. But Help to Buy completions account for loans of just over three times salary; compared to those outside of the scheme, which come to 3.2% and 3.8% inside the capital. Just 385 Help to Buy completions have occured inside London, where the housing boom is developing, while the North West, North East and Yorkshire & Humberside account for 2029, where prices are still below their pre-crisis peak. It's a shot in the arm for a scheme that is politically popular but has come under fire from some politicians, including the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, and a number of his predecessors. Szu Ping Chan has the full figures.
NO NEWS IS ODD NEWS
Ed Miliband's claim not to read the newspapers or to watch television is widely discussed. Somewhat surprisingly, it's the usually supportive Mirror that is particularly scathing. "Mr Miliband needs to catch up with the news if he expects people to listen to his views," says the editorial, while Tory MP Charlie Elphicke, showing a keen eye for his audience, says that he "always enjoys reading the Daily Mirror", before adding: "No wonder he is so out of touch if he doesn't read newspapers". Mr Miliband's BuzzFeed interview also revealed that the Labour leader believes that his reputation for weirdness is a concoction of a hostile media. He might reflect that his tendency to give interviews in which he reveals a distaste for the habits of ordinary people and boasts about his intellectual self-confidence are at least a small part of the problem.

CUTTING THE CABLE 
Senior Liberal Democrats are calling for Vince Cable to be stripped off his role as the Liberal Democrats' economic spokesman, James Kirkup and Georgia Graham report. The effective demotion would mean that the Business Secretary would have a reduced role in the Liberal Democrats' election campaign and that Dr Cable may lose out in the event of a second coalition. Meanwhile Liberal activists are frustrated by the latest line being spun by Cowley Street. The "if we work, we win" line upset many Liberals who felt that the leadership was turning a blind eye to the damage wrought by the years of coalition. Sam Coates in the Times has more.

CUTS ARE FOR KEEPS, SAYS LESLIE
Chris Leslie will today tell the Institute for Chartered Accountants that a future Labour government will not be able to undo the Coalition's cuts - because there is no money left.  The shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury will say that "more limited pot of money will have to be spent on a smaller number of priorities".

IT'S TOO LATE TO APOLOGISE, IT'S TOO LATE, AHHH
More than most, Nick Clegg will greet the end of the week with relief. Lord Rennard has resurfaced with a belated apology to his alleged victims. But that it's come so late has left three out of the four women demanding that Mr Clegg expel Lord Rennard from the party. The DPM felt too weak to move Lord Rennard even before the Liberal Democrat wipeout on Thursday and the re-emergence of the scandal will do Mr Clegg's team no favours.

A TALE OF SOUND AND FURY
A full account of Tony Blair's conversations will not be included in the Chilcot report, with the conversations summarised and the former President's views kept secret. John McDonnell's description of the whole thing as a "whitewash" dominates the coverage."Chilcot inquiry accused of whitewash" say the Guardian. "Blair & Bush inquiry whitewash" says the Mirror. The Mail goes further:"This shabby whitewash" is their splash. For all the sound and fury, the inquiry is unlikely to make waves: Labour has largely moved on, and can there really be a great number of people in the country who are waiting for the report to come to a fixed opinion of Mr Blair and his administration? s

SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL
The NHS must stop closing cottage hospitals and return to treating more patients in their local communities, says Simon Stevens, the Blair adviser turned NHS chief, has said in his first interview since taking post. Mr Stevens also suggests that employers could be encouraged to help their workers keep healthy. You can read the full interview with Laura Donnelly here.
The Morning Briefing is edited by Stephen Bush. You can follow him on Twitter here. 

TWEETS & TWITS
Another crisis of public confidence in the BBC:
@StuartAndrewMP: BBC Question Time has become a joke



DAILY POLL
YouGov latest:
Con 31%, Lab 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

COMMENT
In the TelegraphIain Martin - Vince Cable: from leader in waiting to loser
Isabel Hardman -  The mysterious Mr Lansley will hardly set Brussels alight

Rob Colville -
Dan Hodges - The war games are over - and it's the Tories who are smiling
Telegraph View - Spreading enterprise will spread wealth

Best of the Rest
Philip Collins - The crushed Lib Dems have a bright future
Richard McGregor - Hilary Clinton: permanent campaigner
Gaby Hinsliff - Morals in the City: don't put your money on it
George Eaton - Fighting back by turning blue




AGENDA
1030 BELFAST: First press conference for the Police Service of Northern Ireland's next chief constable, George Hamilton.