Eurosceptics damaging Cameron..

Breaking News: William Hague has been speaking on the Today programme about Europe. The Foreign Secretary said that "We are in favour of people being free to move for work" in the EU, and that many British people benefited from that, but that people should not be allowed to move "in order to take advantage of benefits". Mr Hague also spoke about Syria. He called for "a political solution to end this bloodshed, that is why we're in favour of the Geneva II process." He described removing Syrian chemical weapons "the only bright spot in this entire business".

HAGUE'S UNHELPFUL INTERVENTION

Good morning. One word from William Hague threatens to undo David Cameron's efforts to placate his backbenchers. The Foreign Secretary dismissed as 'unrealistic' the demand for a national veto from 100-odd (or, if you are Ken Clarke, 100 odd) Tory MPs, and the roof has come in. The leading lights behind the letter - Bernard Jenkin, Sir Gerald Howarth, Douglas Carswell - have taken it personally. Mr Cameron is accused of ignoring the democratically expressed will of his MPs. That Nick Clegg has backed him just makes things worse. The Foreign Secretary's point, and Mr Cameron's, is the obvious one: the EU is a club with a set of rules that the United Kingdom has signed up to. Indeed, most of the big structural rules, notably the Single European Act, were agreed by Mrs T. If we want to stay in the club we can't reasonably expect to be exempt from the rules we don't like, which is most of them. And that bring us straight to the political problem. Many Tory MPs, and most of those who signed the letter, and certainly those who organised it, don't want to be part of the club.

In Downing Street they are growing increasingly frustrated by the two-faced tactics of the EU irreconcilables. With a few honourable exceptions, Tory outers aren't out. They pay lip service in public to the Dave dream of renegotiation, then in private point out it's hopelessly over-optimistic and say, almost as an aside, 'anyway, we'd be better off out'. The Prime Minister can see the Jenkin letter, and indeed all the other attempts to force a confrontation over Europe, for what it is: an cattle prod to the exit. Take for example the little discussed dong dong over the Immigration Bill, by which 80-ish Tories want the Government to accept an amendment that is illegal. Ministers have once again pulled the Bill - itself full of useful measures to tackle immigration problems - and deferred it while they try to find a way out of that trap. No10 even sees the Boris one, as in his column today, as unhelpful, because all it does is build up the prospect of a major renegotiation when everyone knows that in reality, it ain't likely.

Mr Cameron is the victim of his own appeaser's rhetoric. He has tried to secure his Tory flank by talking a big game on the EU; his party knows he can't deliver, and is torturing him for it, all the time ramping up the prospects of Brexit. All this as George Osborne prepares to give his vision for Britain's continued place in Europe, with a stronger business slant (John Cridland of the CBI is the new favourite to take over as Britain's commissioner in Brussels). The anti-EU ultras are clever, and are holding Dave's feet to the fire. At some point he will have to call them out. That point has got a whole lot closer.

IDS HAS LOTS OF FRIENDS

Everyone agrees with IDS now. As reflected across the papers, Labour and the Lib Dems both say that they support Mr Duncan Smith's plans to block benefits for migrants until they had been in the UK for two years - eight times the current amount - with Rachel Reeves and Nick Clegg rolled out to do the tough talking. Both parties are terrified of being painted as "soft" on immigration and welfare by the Tories. The rationale is simple: that tough talk on these issues is what swing voters want to hear.

THE TREASURY GIVES SALMOND A HELPING HAND

This has the feel of being something deeply significant in the battle over Scotland's future. The UK Treasury will today assume full responsibility for Britain’s £1.2tn debt stock in the event of Scottish independence,reports the FT. The decision is designed to settle market nerves, but, by reducing the financial risks that an independent Scotland would face, the risk is this will end up making independence more likely. If Scotland is no longer ultimately liable for its share of the UK's debt stock (though it will still be expected to pay Britain back), then the potency of the argument about the cost of separation is dramatically undermined.

MORDAUNT GETS READY TO SPLASH

Photos have been released of Penny Mordaunt ahead of her debut on Splash! on Saturday night, with the Mail noting that her "swimsuit reveals a little more than her political allegiance." Ms Mordaunt said she is looking forward to it: "I have the elegance and drive of a paving slab, but my navy training has certainly given me the guts to take on the challenge head on."

CLEGG WANTS MORE TAXES ON THE RICH

Nick Clegg used his appearance on Marr yesterday to reiterate his calls for the wealthy to pay more taxes - Mr Clegg's support for a mansion tax is well-established. As I argued in my blog, "if he presses on with this theme, it will be difficult not to conclude that he is laying the ground for an election alliance with Labour that will try to force the Tories to campaign against further taxes on the wealthy." Chris Huhne reckons that it's Mr Clegg's time to speak up against the Tories. The last 16 months of this government won't be pretty: the Tories and Lib Dems think that a lot of public rows over policy might rather help both parties.

BRIBES TO FRACK

Dave is trying to get councils to sign up to fracking, by letting them keep 100 per cent of business rates from shale gas sites they authorise - rather than the usual 50 per cent. Plans to give communities £100,000 per test drilling and a further 1 per cent of the revenues if shale is discovered have already been announced. The Mirror isn't impressed, quoting Lawrence Carter from Greenpeace who calls it a "bribe". French energy giant Total will become the first oil and gas major to back UK fracking, and it's hoped this this could be a catalyst for the sector. Michael Fallon told Today this morning that fracking wouldn't be allowed unless it was "absolutely safe for the environment" and said that he expects 20 to 40 sites to be drilled over the next two years.

CLARKE'S PASSAGE TO CHINA

Ken Clarke has been dispatched to China to try and secure contracts to export NHS expertise. But that doesn't mean that Mr Clarke is ignoring issues closer to home: he told the FT that "I just don’t think it’s true that the European Union is responsible for unacceptable waves of migration".

A FUNNY WAY TO CUT RED TAPE

Francis Maude has hired a private recruiting firm to find 130 staff to help with projects including the Universal Credit - and, ironically, the Government's Red Tape challenge. The Mirror doesn't miss this open goal: "Whitehall hires £6m advisers... to cut red tape", it says.

ENOUGH INACTION ON SYRIA

17 MPs, from all three main parties, have called for David Cameron to consider arming Syrian rebels to "redress the military disadvantage" in the conflict. They have signed a letter to The Times, saying that "time is running out for Syria's citizens" and urging that this month's Geneva II conference "must focus exclusively on the needs and wishes of the Syrian people, whose call for freedom has been brutally suppressed since 2011."The Times reports that the arming of the rebels is not even up for reconsideration by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Discontent with Dave's handling of the Syria vote still simmers among pro-intervention Tory MPs.  

CRACKING THE CODE

"Do you speak Italian? Good. Do you speak French? Good. Do you speak German? Ah, very good." Baroness Trumpington reveals all to The Times Diary about the testing interview procedure that earned her a place as a codebreaker at Bletchley Park during the Second World War.

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

Can you think about politics too much? 

@SarahChampionsMP: Night night twitter friends, off to have nightmares about clowns, Tories & privatisation of probation!

BEST COMMENT

In the Telegraph  

Boris Johnson - Trust the people to decide on Europe? Whatever next!

Con Coughlin - Ariel Sharon: The 'Bulldozer' who saw a route to peace

Benedict Brogan - Nick Clegg is laying the ground for more taxes on the rich

Telegraph View - Stuck in the EU club, but chafing at its rules

Best of the rest 

David Davis in The Times - State snopping will hit Britain in the pocket

Trevor Kavanagh in The Sun - Clegg is no use at all, Cam

Daniel Kawczynski in The Financial Times - Poland must remember Britain is a friend

Chris Huhne in The Guardian - Nick Clegg's time to speak up

THE AGENDA

0930 London: Speech to NHBC by Labour housing spokeswoman Emma Reynolds. Floor 5, 80 Leadenhall Street, EC3A 3DH.

Osborne borrows from Brown..

Good morning. For all the talk of a year focused on governing, it is becoming clearer by the day that David Cameron has put the Conservative party on a war footing. The Times has useful details of some of the meetings this week, including a 'council of war' at Chequers yesterday with senior ministers, to look at the election. This has encouraged fears, not least among civil servants, that government will grind to a halt as Tories and Lib Dems fight with each other. This is likely true, though we should acknowledge that an absence of interesting ideas may also have something to do with it. The Coalition gave itself a work programme in 2010, and has simply run out of things to do (Dave would want us to acknowledge that what it has done is impressive). We are told that ministers have been cautioned by Craig Oliver against giving voters reason to suspect they are distracted by the election. But actions speak louder. The Lib Dems led by Nick Clegg have started the new year as they intend to continue, by attacking the Tories on policy.

The Tories in turn are out to smash Labour at every opportunity. Indeed, I gather that George Osborne has issued instructions to all ministers that henceforth any statement they make has to be framed to highlight 'dividing lines' with Labour. "It has been made clear to us that everything has to be political," a minister tells me. The year's opening salvos are on the economy, leading up to the Q4 GDP figures later this month. The edict, from the Chancellor, in part resolves the dilemma that has frustrated some Tories, namely that Mr Osborne and Mr Cameron have shied away from setting out dividing lines with the Lib Dems by highlighting what they would do if only Nick Clegg would let them. Mr Osborne has argued privately that the Tories will sound like whingers if they complain about what they can't do. Instead the focus will be heavily on Labour. Every announcement, every statement will be calibrated by the centre to ensure maximum damage to Ed Miliband. This dividing lines approach will sound familiar of course. It's what Gordon Brown liked to do - remember "investment versus cuts"? - to smash the Tories. Once again, here's evidence that the Chancellor is not averse to borrowing a few tricks from the discredited but undisputed master of election tactics.

GEORGE TAKES A BREAK FROM IT ALL

WHO BENEFITS FROM THE RECOVERY?

There's an interesting snippet in an ITV News / Comres poll seen exclusively by the Morning Briefing. While economic confidence is riding high, there are huge variations between social grade: 56 per cent of AB's expect the economy to improve in 2014, but only 28 per cent of DEs do. 41 per cent of DEs also expect there to be another recession in 2014, double the number of the top social grade. For the Tories the poll is a reminder of the need to convince lower-income groups that they will benefit from the recovery - and will only add to the attraction of raising the minimum wage.

SAY SORRY, VINCE

It's now three months since Royal Mail shares were floated, and there is no sign of an end to the "froth" in the price - despite what Vince Cable predicted. The Mail calls on Vince "to apologise for short-changing the taxpayer" while Labour has called it "botched" and a "fire sale". Michael Fallon was called to defend the policy on Today: "This sale was a success and it’s given that company every prospect of a secure and stable future."

UNION IN NEED OF A HERO

The FT has a report on the struggles of the Better Together campaign: the Union is crying out for a hero. There is an absence of "big beasts" to support Alistair Darling who, for all his talents, is regarded as overly "dreary" by some insiders. The replacement of Michael Moore as Scotland secretary by Alistair Carmichael was regarded as an attempt to fire up the pro-union frontline - yet Mr Carmichael struggled in his first televised debate with Nicola Sturgeon. For all the concerns, the No campaign still retains a solid and stable poll lead.

ZAHAWI IN TROUBLE

No 10 might just have had its fill of Nadhim Zahawi. There's been no messing around responding to Mr Zahawi's criticism of planning reforms, with a source saying that "Being a member of the policy board means supporting Government policy" and Nick Boles also weighing in. Mr Zahawi yesterday clarified that he "made the comments as the member for Stratford upon Avon, not as a member of the policy board." But Downing Street isn't taking kindly to his perceived intransigence: Mr Zahawi will have to recant to save his skin.

JUST LIKE HOUSE OF CARDS

So much for the hope that the EU Referendum Bill would sort out the European issue. The Conservatives had reckoned without the intervention of the Lords: the FT says that more than 70 peers are due to speak during today's debate, suggesting that there could be multiple amendments that would threaten the bill's passage. One peer who said: "It is by no means clear we will have gone through all the stages in time for it to get back to the Commons in time." Michael Dobbs likens it all to House of Cards - but says that he's still "very optimistic" that the bill will pass. James Wharton says that the public would "not forgive" Labour and the Lib Dems.

MILLER BRANDED AN 'IDIOT'

The ugly World War One row continues apace. This time the target is Maria Miller - allies of Michael Gove have complained about a lack of mention of the role played by troops by Australia and New Zealand. A Whitehall source tells the Mail: "This is awful - the idiot Maria Miller is doing nothing to involve the rest of the Empire, who sent vast numbers of people to help us.".

REDWOOD ON IMMIGRATION

John Redwood has said that immigration and the "unprecedented expansion of labour supply" had contributed to stagnant wages. This is more than just a powerful backbench voice speaking: Mr Redwood, the chair of the Conservative Economic Affairs Committee, is expected to have a role in setting the 2015 manifesto.

FOX GOING TO NATO?

Dr Liam Fox could be the next Secretary General of Nato. The Mail reportsthan Dr Fox's name is "on the table" for the role, with the current Nato boss due to stand down in September. For David Cameron the attraction would be twofold. Dr Fox is widely respected and regarded as "Nato's biggest supporter in the Commons". But if he got the role it would have the added perk of removing a potential source of trouble for the PM - Dave could doubtless envisage Dr Fox leading calls for further action on the EU after the European elections. Lord Ashcroft has endorsed the idea this morning on Twitter, which may - or may not - help. Dr Fox would have to resign his seat of North Somerset, where the Tories have a majority of nearly 8,000 over the Lib Dems.

DAVE v AUNTY - AND PATERSON

Dave blames the BBC for his lack of popularity in Liverpool. The PM accused the BBC of misleading listeners about the scale of cuts in the city - on BBC Radio Merseyside, he said "One of the reasons people feel treated unfairly is because they hear on programmes like yours, day after day, week after week, sets of figures that aren’t accurate or right." And Dave is also fighting a little closer to home - Owen Paterson refused to endorse the PM's suggestion that the recent storms were linked to climate change.

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

Mark Reckless is impressed with one Cabinet member - but not the rest of them:

@MarkReckless: IDS is fighting EU in court on benefit rules but PM, Treasury and their lawyers are not even fighting on paying child benefit to Polish kids.

BEST COMMENT

In the Telegraph  

Fraser Nelson - Gangsterism, not racism, was the root of Duggan’s shooting

Michael Dobbs - A conspiracy is afoot in the Lords

Jeremy Warner - Bridging the poverty gap calls for bold ideas

Telegraph View - A man died, and justice has taken its course

Best of the rest 

Philip Collins in The Times - Only trust can dampen this inflamed anger

Philip Stephens in The Financial Times - Tomorrow holds both risks and riches

Ben Macintyre in The Times - The stench of a cover-up over Libya grows

Jackie Ashley in The Guardian - It's a myth the generations are at war. We're all in this together

THE AGENDA

Pc Keith Wallis in court accused of misconduct in public office over the plebgate affair. The Old Bailey.

10am European Union (Referendum) Bill - Second reading in House of Lords.

Lib-Lab love in..

Good morning. The Sun calls it a "Lib-Lab Love-In". Ed Balls has given an interview to the New Statesman in which he declared his undying love for Nick Clegg. Well, not quite. But Mr Balls was markedly more complimentary towards the Lib Dem leader than he has been in the past: "I can disagree with Nick Clegg on some of the things he did but I’ve no reason to doubt his integrity, we’ve never, I don’t think, ever had a cross word." Mr Balls' words will be seen as a further step paving the way for a future Lib-Lab coalition. The Shadow Chancellor has often been viewed as an obstacle to a Lib-Lab deal - Nick Clegg has not been complimentary about "a man named Ed Balls" in the past, saying that he was the only politician he disliked only last month. By trying to improve Lib Dems' opinions of him, Mr Balls is also shoring up his position after the rumours that begun circulating after his disastrous performance in the Autumn Statement - his retention remains probable.

Mr Balls may think he needs the Lib Dems's approval - but Mr Clegg certainly needs Labour's approval. Mr Clegg knows his political future may depend on Labour not doing what he did to Gordon Brown in 2010 - demanding his head as the price of any coalition deal. So his letter to Lib Dem members - accusing the Tories of being "more about tax cuts for the highest earners" than helping the poor - serves a useful function for Mr Clegg, showing him to be more than a Tory lackey. Expect to see plenty more examples of ostentatious "differentiation" in the coming months, and the sense of the Conservatives being ganged up on - even if much of it is just Parliamentary theatre.  

ZAHAWI LOBS ANOTHER GRENADE

Nadhim Zahawi is earning a reputation as something of a troublemaker for No 10. First there was his little difficulty with expenses; then it was his calls for child benefit to only be available for two children. Now Mr Zahawi has popped up again on the emotive topic of planning reforms. Mr Zahawi says they're causing "pain" to communities across the country, and warns that "physical harm" to the countryside could become "the defining legacy of this Government". He calls on Nick Bolesto stop "intense attacks" on the countryside by "rapacious developers". Mr Boles wasted no time fighting back, saying: "We are not looking to change the NPPF, because after such a dramatic change in the planning system, stability has an enormous value." What Mr Zahawi has done is draw attention to a development that leaves many members of the grassroots and councillors being betrayed. He has voiced concerns that many leading Tories have kept to themselves. In doing so, he may have let the cat out the bag: this is one row with legs. But it should be noted that Labour also has huge tensions between ambitious house-building targets and a commitment to localism.

MAKING A SPLASH

Penny Mordaunt is making a splash in the papers today (sorry). The Tory MP for Portsmouth North, dubbed the "sexiest" in Parliament by The Sun, has announced that she will appear on ITV's celebrity diving show Splash! a week on Saturday. Unlike Nadine Dorries when she appeared on "I'm A Celebrity", Ms Mordaunt has sought permission from the party's chief whip. She will donate her £7,000 fee towards the community renovation of a lido in Portsmouth.

WHAT ARE THE MOD SPENDING THEIR MONEY ON?

A bad day for the Ministry of Defence. We report that the MOD has doubled its spending on consultants this year - from £25 million in the same period last financial year to £66 million this financial year - even as Armed Forces personnel have been cut by thousands. The Mail has the story with extra salacious detail. Andrew Manley, a £200,000 a year executive in the MOD, is being questioned over whether his blonde chief of staff, 25 years his junior, was "inappropriate" and about expenses claimed for nights he spent at a luxury hotel.

LABOUR GAMBLING AMENDMENT DEFEATED

Labour's amendment calling for local councils to be given the right to limit the number of high-stakes gambling machines was defeated 314-232 last night. At PMQs, David Cameron said that he "absolutely shares the concerns" about fixed odds betting terminals, but that the Government was waiting for a report in the next few months before taking action. Mr Cameron blamed Labour's relaxation of gambling laws in 2001 for the spread of the machines.

BLAME THE FLOODS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

So much for "green cr*p". Dave yesterday told MPs that he "very much suspects" that manmade emissions are behind the freak weather at home and abroad. The Sun says that the PM has "swallowed" a lie.

MAUDE CONTINUES WAR ON IDS

Francis Maude has chipped in with another not-so-subtle attack on IDS. Mr Maude described Universal Credit's launch as "pretty lamentable" and said that that "There was a lot of money wasted in the very poor implementation of the project over its first two years and this is very regrettable."

JAVID BATS FOR HIGHER MINIMUM WAGE

More signs that a rise in the minimum wage could be on the way: No 10 analysts reckon that a 50p hike could save the Government £1 billion, and Sajid Javid yesterday said that there was a "a strong case to look at it". Mr Javid, a close ally of George Osborne, would not have been speaking out of turn.

CHINA'S HS2 OFFER

The recent trips of David Cameron and George Osborne to China weren't in vain. China has offered to invest in HS2, according to the FT, although officials have insisted that the main rail line would be funded entirely by the taxpayer. But the prospect of Chinese companies bidding to run the line after it is built remains open. Many won't approve, but Britain might just be China's best friend in Europe.  

GOGGINS CELEBRATED

PMQS who a noticeably sombre affair yesterday as the Commons marked the death of Paul Goggins. There was evident shock on both sides at the suddenness of his passing and a remarkable cross-party warmth in the tributes led by Ed Miliband and David Cameron; Mr Miliband saluted one of the most "dignified, humane, wise and loyal" parliamentarians. Read our obituary here. Mr Goggins was MP for Wythenshawe and Sale East for 17 years, and won a majority of 7,500 over the Conservatives in 2010. Amid the grief, attention will slowly turn to the by-election. Ukip, who won 3.4 per cent in the seat in 2010, will be eyeing up at a second place finish.    

THE VANISHING LIB DEMS

Lib Dem Don Foster has announced that he's standing down in 2015, after 23 years as MP for Bath. Mr Foster has a majority of 12,000 but, because of the importance of incumbency, Tories will now be considering whether to target the seat. Mr Foster standing down is certainly something that the Lib Dems could have done without; other senior MPs Sir Menzies Campbell, Sir Malcolm Bruce and David Heath have already announced that they will not run again in 2015, endangering their seats. The question is whether Nick Clegg is to blame: one Lib Dem MP says that "Clegg was advised badly about personnel, which led to him not giving posts to older figures" and reckons a few senior MPs could have been persuaded to stay on had they been offered ministerial posts. 

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

Some support for Mr Zahawi:

@ZacGoldsmith: Good strong words from @nadhimzahawi on the 'faceless planning inspectorate' & the need for more localised Plannin.

BEST COMMENT

In the Telegraph  

Peter Oborne - We may all pay a price for the crushing of democracy in Egypt

Sue Cameron - Why is outsourcing shrouded in secrecy?

Philip Johnston - We have a free press. . . let’s keep it that way

Telegraph View - Voter ID cards will not solve electoral fraud

Best of the rest 

Patience Wheatcroft in The Times - Dave must give the Tories back their dreams

Rafael Behr in The New Statesman - Miliband’s enemies don’t know what to make of him – the trouble is, neither do his friends

Theresa May in The Sun - Slavery is an affront to our humanity

Martin Kettle in The Guardian - Modern Britain can survive - if we have the will for it

THE AGENDA

8.30am Fire station closures. Protest outside Clerkenwell fire station, Rosebery Avenue, ahead of closure of 10 fire stations in London tomorrow, followed by a protest outside City Hall at 11.30am.

9am Call Clegg on LBC 97.3 radio.

12pm Bank of England decision on interest rates and quantitative easing programme.

Conservative exasperation..

Good morning. An emerging theme of the new political season is tensions between Tories and Lib Dems in Government. Nick Clegg told MPs yesterday that his job was to support the Prime Minister, which drew hollow laughs from the Tory benches. Actually, he does. Across Government there is plenty that he and David Cameron agree on and work together to achieve, not least the shared endeavour to reduce the deficit. They are also explicit about where they do not agree. Most of the time these disagreements are, well, agreed, each giving the other advance wearing of an imminent public shoeing. Not always though, and it is certainly the case that Mr Cameron and sometimes Mr Clegg have been heard to rage about the other when ambushed. Some elements of disagreement are taken as part of the ebb and flow: anything Vince Cable says, for example, is shrugged off by both sides as the rumblings of a dormant volcano. 

The FT has some useful background on Lib Dem thinking about the year ahead, specifically that Mr Clegg will push the confrontation with Mr Cameron on big policy areas over the next nine months in the build up to Lib Dem conference in Glasgow. It's described as a "programme of escalation": after the opening salvos of the new year, things will calm down a bit before the parties go at each other for the European and local elections in May. The FT suggests that Mr Clegg may try to head of criticism of his leadership that will come when the party loses most of its MEPs by attacking the Tories. There is certainly a whiff of desperation in it: the Guardian reports that Lib Dems are complaining about Tories stealing their policies - hilarious. What effect will all this displacement activity have? Tories are certainly showing signs of exasperation, and are returning fire. Boris called Mr Clegg a condom yesterday, which even the Mail found a bit de trop. Expect it to get nastier. But words is just words: will the Coalition survive? Mr Clegg and Mr Cameron intend it to, and it is hard to see what could come along to trump their act of political will. The danger point is Europe, and if Tory MPs force the Prime Minister to a point where he has to put his survival before the Coalition's. Still a long shot, especially if the Tories can turn attention onto the plight of the Lib Dems, who are barely out of single figures in the polls.

WAGE-ING WAR ON LABOUR

What's going on with the minimum wage? The conflicting reports today should be read as a sign that the Conservatives still aren't exactly sure, even if there is a definite sense of elements in the party making a concerted effort to win an increase. The Sun reckons it could be raised by 99p - from £6.31 to £7.30 - and, in a now familiar ritual, has the Lib Dems and Tories fighting over who can claim the credit. We reckon a rise of 50p is more likely, with party strategists reasoning that an increase would help the Conservatives in Labour-held seats in the North West and Midlands, where lower-paid workers will decide the outcome. Jo Johnson is weighing up evidence on whether such an increase could put jobs at risk. The FT reckons that it's far from a done deal, and say that the PM will defer to the Chancellor on the issue - who they say is opposed. A source explains that "Unemployment has been a good news story for the last two years and we don’t want to rock the boat a year out from the election.” But figures such as Matt Hancock believe an increase would not cost jobs - and the case is made more attractive because senior Labour figures were relieved that there was no minimum wage announcement at the last Tory conference, and an increase would be a way of stealing Labour's cost-of-living clothes. 

UNIVERSAL PROBLEMS

There are more problems for universal credit today. According to minutes from a Whitehall meeting obtained by the Guardian, the problems centre on tensions between Iain Duncan Smith and Francis Maude: friction is leading to "high-level" risks to the delivery of the project. The minutes also confirm that Mr Maude's department has accelerated the pullout of its elite team of IT experts from the universal credit project. The Cabinet Office is getting much of the blame for the difficulties: a separate leak says that the DWP might not be "able to obtain the skills required to replace" the government digital service experts "within the current market at affordable cost". One of the government's most ambitious projects is fast descending into a blame game and some will even see this as evidence that Mr Maude is working in league with George Osborne to cause problems for IDS. But the Cabinet Office have attempted to downplay the Guardian story with a statement this morning: "The Cabinet Office fully supports the excellent policy of Universal Credit. We will not comment on leaked documents - the DWP publicly set out its plan for implementing this programme last month... Following the delivery by GDS of strategic proof of concept in October 2013, a team within DWP will now take the digital solution forward, led by the department's digital leader. This transition was agreed between Cabinet Office and DWP".

PATERSON RUNNING OUT OF FRIENDS

Owen Paterson is one of the Tories reckoned to be most in tune with the shires' concerns. So he won't appreciate being laid into by countryside groups: in the Mail, the policy director of organic farming group the Soil Association says: "The accusation that opposition to GM is “political” is simply a politician’s way of sidestepping the overwhelming scientific, safety and market arguments against GM." And in The Times, Peter Kendall, the outgoing president of the National Farmers Union, attacks Mr Paterson's attitude towards climate change: “I would ask him to be careful about talking about the beneficial effects of climate change because farmers who are at the wrong end of extreme weather events often have a whole year’s work ruined. Government policy is not joined up on building agricultural resilience and we need to work on that as a matter of massive urgency.” That even his friends appear to be turning on him shows what difficult times these are for Mr Paterson. 

BORING SNORING ONE NATION LABOUR

Simon Danczuk has had enough of the "torturous repetition" of political slogans like One Nation and has called for an end to "parroting slogans". Mr Danczuk reckons that a little less message discipline will help politicians connect:"It isn't a coincidence that people like Boris Johnson, Frank Field, Tom Harris or Nigel Farage have the ability to communicate more effectively with the wider public – it's because they are perceived to speak their mind, to say not what their party wants them to say, but what they think."

HAS BORIS CROSSED THE LINE?

Boris Johnson took his attacks on Nick Clegg to new heights yesterday (or new lows, depending on your perspective), likening the Deputy PM to a condom. Even the Mail is prompted to ask whether Boris has "gone too far" this time.   

HOW TO DRESS FOR SUCCESS

The Daily Mirror is gunning for Michael Gove's wife. It runs a story saying that DWP's Facebook page includes a link to Get the Gloss - a website run by Sarah Vine - under a post advising how to “dress for success”. Get the Gloss offers products including £230 Creme de la Mer serum and £130 Gypsy Water perfume. A DWP spokeswoman insisted Ms Vine was not involved in the decision to link to Get the Gloss, while Mr Gove's spokesman has denied any knowledge about the link. Meanwhile,Craig Oliver has been rebuked, according to the Mirror, about breaking Downing Street security after previously using his pass to sneak Lynton Crosby into No 10. 

COMMISSION WARNS ABOUT ELECTORAL FRAUD

Are we vulnerable to voting fraud? The Electoral Commission is setting up an inquiry into 16 council areas to examine the “vulnerability” of some South Asian communities — specifically some from certain areas of Pakistan and Bangladesh — to electoral fraud. The commission today calls for voters to be required to show photo ID at polling stations in England, Wales and Scotland (voters already have to in Northern Ireland) and the requirement could be in place before the 2020 general election. It also says that political party activists should no longer be allowed to handle postal votes.

TORY SELECTION CHAOS

Sticking with dodgy voting, the Conservatives are facing embarrassment after apparently selecting the wrong candidate for the safe seat of South-East Cambridgeshire. An alleged miscount occurred in the final round of voting between Lucy Frazer and her rival Heidi Allen - a pile of 25 votes was marked as being for Miss Frazer, when in fact only the top two papers were – with the rest being for Miss Allen. CCHQ is dispatching two senior officials to the constituency and may order a re-vote. 

THE SECRET OF DAVE AND HIS CRIMPER

Dave's crimper gets plenty of press again today. Harry Wallop salutes Lino Carbosiero - the "man who has successfully kept the bald spot on the back of the prime minister’s head almost permanently hidden" - and explains why a hairdresser is so important in the salons of power.    

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

Here we go again...

@chhcalling: A new educational establishment has opened its doors today. It is called "The Optimists' School" - supposedly the classes are all half-full. 

BEST COMMENT

In the Telegraph  

Andrew Haldenby - Has Osborne got the bottle for cuts?

Mary Riddell - Britain cannot afford to be the friendless pariah of Europe

Harry Wallop - Why a hairdresser is so important in the salons of power

Telegraph View - Voters deserve a TV election debate in 2015

Best of the rest 

Daniel Finkelstein in The Times - A separate NHS tax would rein in spending

Simon Danczuk in PR Week - The new 'on message' is being off message

Robin Harding in The Financial Times - The return of dynastic wealth

Simon Jenkins in The Guardian - George Osborne talks tough but acts like a Labour chancellor

THE AGENDA

9.30am Bank of England releases its credit conditions survey for the fourth quarter of 2013.

9.30am Tom Winsor, Her Majesty's Chief Inspector of Constabulary, will appear at the Public Administration committee on crime stats. Room 15, House of Commons. 

12pm PMQs returns. 

2.30pm Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael gives evidence to Commons Scottish Affairs Committee on independence referendum. Committee Room 8, House of Commons. 

2.45pm William Hague will appear at the Committees on Arms Export Controls. Grimond Room, Portcullis House. 

3.30pm Professor Chris Elliott gives evidence to MPs on his review into the horsemeat scandal. Professor Elliott will appear before the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs committee. Committee room 15, Palace of Westminster.

Osborne wants £25 billion more cuts..

Good morning and happy new year. The morning briefing is back, rested and a bit fresher. Dave has been busy over the new year, so the rest of us will just have to catch up with the No10 tornado of activity. The Chancellor's speech today is the main event. We lead on it, and he's just been on Today to preview himself. The big drop into the programme is that he is looking for another £25bn in budget cuts, a figure we already had an inkling of. Also interesting that he makes a case for targeting major programmes rather than fiddling with minor ones. On pensioner entitlements, by the way, he pointed out that reducing them would save only "tens of millions", hardly worth the candle. Mr Osborne's case for seeking out worthwhile "substantial" cuts is the right one, but that will prompt questions about the areas that are protected. If it's to be welfare, then why not pensions, which form the lion's share of social security spending? And what about the NHS? If he wants big cuts, can he credibly ring-fence the areas of greatest spending? 

The Chancellor's job today is to flesh out - or "unpack" in Downing Street's preferred phrase - the Government's economic plan. It has five parts, and its main message is that just because things are improving it isn't a reason to ease up on austerity: "If we don't continue to work on our plan... we will be back to square one, back to economic ruin", as the Chancellor warned on Today. Spending has further to fall. The deficit has been reduced but only by a third. There are more cuts on the way. As a message, it's a useful corrective that is designed to dampen those minded to start spending the proceeds of growth. He talks of "hard choices", a term that is fast being debased. A hard choice would be to tell pensioners they can't have a fee TV licence anymore, though Mr Osborne appeared to defend the approach to pensioners by saying that "Increasing the pension age has saved more money than any other decision I've made as Chancellor." That debate is for later though. 

Here's the key extract released overnight: "There’s still a long way to go. We’re borrowing around £100 billion a year – and paying half that money a year in interest just to service our debts. We’ve got to make more cuts. That’s why 2014 is the year of hard truths. The year when Britain faces a choice. Do we say: 'the worst is over; back we go to our bad habits of borrowing and spending and living beyond our means – and let the next generation pay the bill'? Or do we say to ourselves: yes, because of our plan, things are getting better. But there is still a long way to go – and there are big, underlying problems we have to fix in our economy." By the way, the five components of the economic plan are: 1. Reducing the deficit. 2. Cut spending to cut taxes. 3. Better infrastructure and lower taxes for business. 4.Cap welfare and reduce immigration. 5. Better education. 

VOTE BLUE TO GO GREY

Let's hope Mr Osborne will use his speech (1015, his office say helpfully 'the Midlands', apparently it's Birmingham) to clear up some of the confusion that has crept into the morning's coverage. Or rather the Mail is confused: it splashes "Turmoil over OAP benefits" and says Downing Street was in disarray last night. The confusion is over what Dave said on Marr about pensioner entitlements. Having promised them an extension of the triple lock on the state pension, the Prime Minister was unclear about what would happen to the winter fuel payment, free TV licence, etc. The Mail thought he "dropped his cherished pledge", but itself dropped the claim in later editions. No10 later insisted he was in fact likely to repeat his 2010 pledge in 2015 and offer to keep them. Today No10 says Mail is "over-written" and that it is simply the case that he is minded to maintain entitlements but hasn't made a formal decision yet. We'll pass on the wisdom of shooting the messenger - if Dave wants clarity in reporting, he should make himself clear when he speaks. Will the Tories offer a manifesto pledge to maintain pensioner entitlements in 2015? Hints don't butter parsnips. As I blogged yesterday, at the very least this tells us the Tories are anxious to keep the elderly happy, and are prepared to do just about anything to secure the grey vote. The Chancellor on Today made as plain as he could that the most likely outcome is the re-assertion of the 2010 pledge (which we should recall was dragged out of Dave by Gordon Brown's shameless dishonesty). 

GOVE v CLEGG

Michael Gove and Nick Clegg played out their latest row in the Sunday papers."He's out of control," Mr Clegg is said to have said of his Tory colleague. 'Friends of Gove' accuse Mr Clegg of 'lying' and screwing things up himself. What's the significance of it all? Mr Gove will relish Mr Clegg's criticism of his policies as "too ideological" - and Conservatives anxious to prove that this has been a true blue government will find them rather handy too. For Mr Clegg it also serves a purpose, by adding to the Lib Dems' differentiation strategy. No 10 is reassuringly relaxed about it all - not least because, as I note in my blog, "it keeps the excitement away from the relationship that matters, namely between David Cameron and George Osborne." 

TORY LEADERSHIP RALLIES TO YEO

Tim Yeo's re-selection meeting is later this month. His constituency has a membership of 600-odd, which makes it a big one. Last night the leadership rallied strongly to his support. George Osborne and Michael Gove, neither of them natural allies, have written to endorse him. The Chancellor described him as a "politician of principle" and said: "We need people like you in Parliament. Experienced, conscientious, thoughtful, loyal and steady under fire. It would be a real loss to the House of Commons if you were forced to stand down when you still have so much to contribute. The Conservative Party at Westminster would be weaker without you." Mr Gove praised him as a "highly respected" and "extremely valuable" MP who campaigned for free schools. All the Suffolk MPs have signed a joint letter of support. At one level there is nothing surprising about MPs opposing the de-selection of a colleague - it's self-preservation. However, it would have been easy for those at the top to distance themselves from Mr Yeo, or just say silent. That they are willing to speak out in his favour sends a clear message both about his worth and also about the damage a de-selection can do to a party's wider image.

CAN CAMERON OVERCOME FARAGE?

Lord Ashcroft has released another fascinating poll. It shows that 37 per cent of 2010 Tories would not vote for the party tomorrow, which puts Mr Cameron's challenge into perspective. This makes a significant majority seem a remote possibility but, as James Kirkup writes, another coalition is rather more likely: "the Ashcroft polling shows that 55 per cent of voters would prefer a second Coalition to an all-Tory government. Most intriguingly, even 18 per cent of Conservative loyalists say the same. The suspicion that Mr Cameron is among them is likely to linger all the way to polling day." Another finding of the poll is that over half of those who've turned against the Tories would now vote for Ukip - but don't think that this means that Ukip is just a party for disillusioned Conservatives. Nigel Farage tweeted "Go look at the figures. I don't lead some Tory splinter group". On Murnaghan yesterday, Mr Farage nodded in agreement to some of the words of Enoch Powell's infamous "rivers of blood" speech and, when told what the speech was, he said that "the basic principle is right".

HISTORY WARS

There's more in the ongoing history wars today, with Sir Tony Robinson branding Mr Gove as “irresponsible”, “unhelpful” and “unprofessional” for his comments about Blackadder and accusing the Education Secretary of "slagging off teachers". Boris Johnson takes a rather different view, and writes that "If Tristram Hunt seriously denies that German militarism was at the root of the First World War, then he is not fit to do his job, either in opposition or in government, and should resign." Nigel Farage is also supportive of Mr Gove, writing that he is "essentially right in his analysis of how the previous decades have sought to paint the First World War as the brave Tommy being ordered to his slaughter by an out of touch elite." If you missed it, here's Tristram Hunt's attack on Mr Gove yesterday, accusing the government of "using what should be a moment for national reflection and respectful debate to rewrite the historical record and sow political division."

The Morning Briefing email is edited by Tim Wigmore. Follow Tim on Twitter 

TWEETS AND TWITS

Catching the train isn't much fun:

@SteveBakerMP: Commuting to Parliament by train this week. KTM silencers succumbed to dissimilar metal corrosion: the noise is most un-Parliamentary

BEST COMMENT

In the Telegraph  

James Kirkup - What must Cameron do to win?

Benedict Brogan - What Number 10 really thinks of the Gove v Clegg feud

Boris Johnson - Germany started the Great War but the Left can't bear to say so

Telegraph View - Without growth all promises are empty

Best of the rest 

Libby Purves in The Times - Interest rates are a low blow for ordinary Joe

John Harris in The Guardian - The Left is too silent on the clunking fist of state power

Edward Luce in The Financial Times - Meet the Anglo-Saxon trumpeting

Nigel Farage in The Independent - British incompetence in World War One has been overestimated. It's politicians, not the military, who deserve censure

THE AGENDA

0930 London: Walkout by barristers in protest at legal aid cuts. Barristers in courts across England and Wales are expected not to attend morning trial hearings and instead join protests outside courts. Among those at the London demo will be Janis Sharp, the mother of Gary McKinnon.

1015 Birmingham: George Osborne speech.

1400 London: Phone-hacking trial resumes. The Old Bailey.